KMAF [140353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140353
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 PM FLASH FLOOD CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.24W
05/13/2012 EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

CURB-TO-CURB FLOODING...4-5 INCHES DEEP. 6 INCHES DEEP AT
INTERSECTIONS.


&&

$$

JD

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KMAF [140342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140342
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.24W
05/13/2012 EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

4-10 INCHES OF RUNOFF ON NORTH LAKE RD...RUNNING NORTH
OUT OF NE CARLSBAD TO BRANTLEY PARK.


&&

$$

JD

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KEPZ [140200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 140200
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
800 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL 1 W SACRAMENTO 32.79N 105.58W
05/13/2012 E0.88 INCH OTERO NM PUBLIC

SOME NICKLE SIZE MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200202

$$

FK

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KMAF [140144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140144
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
844 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 PM HAIL 8 NW CARLSBAD 32.49N 104.33W
05/13/2012 M1.00 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE INCREASING TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HIGHWAY 285 AND
137.


&&

$$

KAH

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KMAF [140131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140131
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0819 PM HAIL 3 N ARTESIA 32.89N 104.43W
05/13/2012 M1.00 INCH EDDY NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

KAH

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KMAF [140124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140124
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HAIL 12 S ARTESIA 32.67N 104.43W
05/13/2012 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

AT US 285 AND COUNTY RD 21


&&

$$

DH

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KMAF [140122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140122
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
821 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0819 PM TSTM WND GST 8 S ARTESIA 32.73N 104.43W
05/13/2012 E60 MPH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DH

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KPUB [140119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 140119
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
719 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
05/13/2012 M1.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TLM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0804

ACUS11 KWNS 140113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140113
TXZ000-NMZ000-140215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275...

VALID 140113Z - 140215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE SRN PORTIONS OF
WW275 BY 03Z.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
TOWARD FAR WEST TX THIS EVENING AND THIS IS PROVIDING BACKGROUND
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS NM.
SEVERAL SEVERE SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...NAMELY ACROSS OTERO AND NRN EDDY COUNTIES IN SERN NM.
LATEST WDSS MESH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY AND WINDS RECENTLY GUSTED TO 54KT AT ATS.
ALTHOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/MAF DO NOT DEPICT MUCH CAPE...BOTH
PROFILES EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THIS APPEARS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ROBUST UPDRAFTS NOTED. LATEST THINKING IS
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG TSTMS WILL APPROACH THE TX BORDER BY 03Z.

..DARROW.. 05/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34770761 33820314 31790314 32760763 34770761

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KMAF [140111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140111
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
811 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W ARTESIA 32.85N 104.46W
05/13/2012 M62 MPH EDDY NM ASOS


&&

$$

DH

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KHUN [140104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 140104
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
804 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 WSW TANNER 34.70N 87.04W
05/13/2012 LIMESTONE AL TRAINED SPOTTER

A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD AND WALL CLOUD WERE REPORTED FROM A
SPOTTER TRAVELLING ALONG HIGHWAY 24 / GORDON TERRY
PARKWAY. THE SPOTTER WAS LOOKING NORTH FROM THEIR
LOCATION JUST WEST OF DECATUR. LOCATION OF THE FUNNEL
CLOUD WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0625 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE DECATUR 34.62N 86.96W
05/13/2012 LIMESTONE AL STORM CHASER

A UA-HUNTSVILLE RESEARCH METEOROLOGIST OBSERVED A BRIEF
FUNNEL CLOUD LOOKING NORTH FROM THE BEE LINE HIGHWAY
BRIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER JUST NORTHEAST OF
DECATUR. THE FUNNEL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 0.5 TO 1.0 MILES
NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF THE OBSERVERS LOCATION OVER LAKE
WHEELER.


&&

$$

KULA

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KEPZ [140055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 140055
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
655 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM HAIL MOUNTAIN PARK 32.95N 105.82W
05/13/2012 E1.00 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IN MOUNTAIN
PARK


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200201

$$

BRICE

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KEPZ [140045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 140045
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
645 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM HAIL 6 E LA LUZ 32.98N 105.84W
05/13/2012 M0.75 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200200

$$

TRIPOLI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140035
SWODY1
SPC AC 140033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST
TX...

...SRN ROCKIES/WEST TX...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RUC IS
ANALYZING SEVERAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL NM
SUGGESTING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS QUITE STRONG IN THE DESERT
REGION OF SRN NM. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY MOVE THE
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS SEWD INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT
WHERE A SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SRN NM THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE NATIONAL PARK
VICINITY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE IN THE PECOS AND FORT STOCKTON AREAS
OF WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM 03Z TO 09Z
SHOW SBCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD
RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF WEST TX WHERE THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THE
STORMS IN SRN NM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF EL PASO SO
HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EL
PASO.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2012

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KEPZ [140030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 140030
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
629 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL 1 ENE TULAROSA 33.08N 106.01W
05/13/2012 M1.25 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200199

$$

TRIPOLI

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KFFC [140014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 140014
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
814 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 WSW MIDLAND 32.56N 84.85W
05/13/2012 MUSCOGEE GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED FLOOD WATERS RUNNING OVER CHAPEL LAKE
DRIVE OFF OF PIERCE CHAPEL ROAD ABOUT 2.7 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MIDLAND, GEORGIA IN MUSCOGEE COUNTY.


&&

$$

DDARBE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0803

ACUS11 KWNS 132256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132256
TXZ000-NMZ000-140000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275...

VALID 132256Z - 140000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW275.

DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING MCS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES THIS EVENING. ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS
EXPANDING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS A BIT
STRONGER ACROSS CNTRL NM. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE
EVOLVED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW275 AND THESE MORE DISCRETE
STRUCTURES HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AT TIMES AS THEY MOVE SEWD AT
ROUGHLY 20-25KT. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34770761 33820314 31800314 32760761 34770761

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KBMX [132235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 132235
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 4 NW SMITHS STATION 32.58N 85.15W
05/13/2012 E0.75 INCH LEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF SMITHS
STATION.


&&

$$

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KABQ [132213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 132213
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
413 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL BELEN 34.66N 106.78W
05/13/2012 M0.75 INCH VALENCIA NM LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201174

$$

CML

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KABQ [132209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 132209
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
409 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 8 NW MOUNTAINAIR 34.60N 106.34W
05/13/2012 M0.75 INCH TORRANCE NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201173

$$

CML

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KPUB [132207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 132207
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
407 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.46W
05/13/2012 M1.00 INCH CUSTER CO EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

MN

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KPUB [132153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 132153
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
352 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL FLORISSANT 38.95N 105.30W
05/13/2012 E0.25 INCH TELLER CO AMATEUR RADIO

PEA SIZE HAIL...TO A 1 INCH DEPTH...IN A SWATH FROM THE
LAKE GEORGE AREA...EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORISSANT
CANYON...TO WITHIN 5 MILES OR SO WEST OF WOODLAND PARK.

0215 PM HAIL 2 N WOODLAND PARK 39.02N 105.05W
05/13/2012 M0.50 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0239 PM HAIL WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.46W
05/13/2012 M0.88 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0245 PM HAIL 1 ENE WESTCLIFFE 38.14N 105.45W
05/13/2012 M0.75 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LW

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KABQ [132132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 132132
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG MAGDALENA 34.12N 107.24W
05/13/2012 SOCORRO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

OFF HIGHWAY 107


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201172

$$

CML

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KTAE [132125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 132125
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
525 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE TALLAHASSEE 30.45N 84.28W
05/13/2012 LEON FL NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE OAK TREE DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHBOUND LANE OF
THOMASVILLE RD. JUST SOUTH OF THE LITTLE THEATER. TIME OF
EVENT BASED ON RADAR.


&&

$$

BARRY

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KABQ [132125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 132125
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUG 33.80N 106.89W
05/13/2012 M0.75 INCH SOCORRO NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201171

$$

CML

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KPUB [132049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 132049
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL 1 ENE WESTCLIFFE 38.14N 105.45W
05/13/2012 M0.75 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LW

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KABQ [132047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 132047
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM HAIL 11 WNW CEDARVALE 34.42N 105.89W
05/13/2012 M1.00 INCH TORRANCE NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201170

$$

CML

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KPUB [132043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 132043
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
243 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL 2 N WOODLAND PARK 39.02N 105.05W
05/13/2012 M0.50 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0239 PM HAIL WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.46W
05/13/2012 M0.88 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MN

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KPUB [132039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 132039
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
239 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL FLORISSANT 38.95N 105.30W
05/13/2012 E0.25 INCH TELLER CO AMATEUR RADIO

PEA SIZE HAIL...TO A 1 INCH DEPTH...IN A SWATH FROM THE
LAKE GEORGE AREA...EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORISSANT
CANYON...TO WITHIN 5 MILES OR SO WEST OF WOODLAND PARK.


&&

$$

LW

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 275

WWUS20 KWNS 132032
SEL5
SPC WW 132032
NMZ000-140300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO NEW MEXICO TO 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
HOBBS NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NM WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ARE
PRESENT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...POSING A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.


...HART

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KABQ [132020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 132020
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
220 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TORNADO 2 SW MAGDALENA 34.10N 107.26W
05/13/2012 SOCORRO NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

STRUCTURES HIT ON SW SIDE OF TOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201169

$$

JLP

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KABQ [132007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 132007
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
207 PM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0204 PM HAIL 1 W MAGDALENA 34.12N 107.26W
05/13/2012 M1.00 INCH SOCORRO NM PARK/FOREST SRVC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201168

$$

CML

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 132000
SWODY1
SPC AC 131958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND
SOUTHWEST TX...

...MUCH OF NM/SOUTHWEST TX/SOUTHEAST CO...
TSTMS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE...ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING/STEADILY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR NM. SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED /BELOW/ REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED...WITH INITIAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NM...AND SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH/SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING CLUSTERS BY THIS EVENING. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 801 FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES WERE EXTENDED FARTHER NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...BUT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL/ISOLATED.

...AL/WESTERN GA/FL PANHANDLE...
A LIMITED WIND DAMAGE/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COULD BE THE CASE WITH PERSISTENT TSTMS ACROSS FL
PANHANDLE/NORTH FL...OR MORE SO ACROSS EASTERN AL/FAR WESTERN GA IN
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT/ASSOCIATED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 802 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..GUYER.. 05/13/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012/

...MUCH OF CNTRL-SERN NM / PARTS OF W TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS ERN UT WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
BY THIS EVENING. ELY-COMPONENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED TODAY /DEWPOINTS RANGING UPPER 40S-MID 50S/ UNDERNEATH A
RESERVOIR OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES PRIMARILY ALONG AND W
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OWING TO CLOUD COVER E...MODELS SHOW A
THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE W EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO N-CNTRL NM. THIS IS WHERE MODELS INITIATE STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE...ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY THREATS PRIOR TO DUSK WILL BE ISOLD
WIND/HAIL...WITH STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STORMS PERSISTING AFTER DARK AND EXHIBITING UPSCALE GROWTH AS THEY
MOVE SEWD. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD POSE PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT LATE
TONIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL AND MOVE INTO THE TRANSPECOS RIVER VALLEY
AND SWRN TX.

...FL PANHANDLE / SERN AL...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT/ IS MOVING
ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION TODAY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF INTO
SERN AL WITH A MARINE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.
THE AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. A WIND PROFILE FEATURING A
MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL FETCH VEERING TO 30 KT WSWLY 6KM FLOW WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS ENCOUNTER A
MORE VORTICITY-RICH ZONE INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT/COAST. AN ISOLD
WEAK TORNADO AND A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SEVERE ACTIVITY LARGELY ABATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REFERENCE
MCD #800 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0802

ACUS11 KWNS 131942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131941
GAZ000-ALZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL THROUGH SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131941Z - 132145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN AL THROUGH SWRN GA WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN GA NWWD
THROUGH SERN AND CNTRL AL WHERE IT INTERSECTS A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS SWWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ MLCAPE DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE TN VALLEY IS MOVING
EAST. UPPER WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK WITH 20-25 KT AT 500 MB SUPPORTING ONLY MODEST /20-30 KT/
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. HOWEVER...NEAR SFC WINDS REMAIN
BACKED TO SELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM E-CNTRL
THROUGH SERN AL AND SWRN GA...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES. YET 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. LARGER
HODOGRAPHS EXIST FARTHER EAST INTO GA...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STABLE IN THAT AREA. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO FROM E-CNTRL AND SERN AL INTO SWRN GA AS
THEY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 32578617 33178578 33158516 32678465 31538410 31238473
31848578 32578617

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0801

ACUS11 KWNS 131940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131940
NMZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-SRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131940Z - 132145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN-CNTRL NM...AND
MOVE NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING
CU/TCU FIELD BLOSSOMING INTO SCTD TSTMS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HRS.
THIS IS LARGELY DUE 1) AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
TO THE APPROACHING 4 CORNERS S/W TROUGH...2) STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
REMOVING CINH. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SELY
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A MORE MOIST/LESS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THAT IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PLAINS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH PW
GRADIENT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT. AS TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 DEG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
PROFILE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...IN TURN BEING VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE
MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. APPRECIABLE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER
AND A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL --
PROMPTING AT LEAST SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE WW.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33220739 34640738 35140721 35490646 34990482 32920405
32210496 32380617 33220739

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS/CANADA ON
MONDAY...INCLUDING AN AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
EMBEDDED MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS.

...SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...
ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST TX BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS ITS MOVEMENT ULTIMATELY
PARALLELS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NM/LARGE PART OF WESTERN TX EARLY
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A SUSTAINED EARLY DAY CLUSTER OR TWO
/OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF/ ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX. SUCH POTENTIAL
VARIABILITY COMPLICATES THE DETAILS...BUT IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT
TSTMS WILL RE-INTENSIFY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY AND/OR SUBSEQUENT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST TX...PROBABLY ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS OF THE TRANSPECOS/BIG BEND REGION WITH AID OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES.

IN THESE AREAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STORMS MAY AGAIN CONGEAL/ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL
THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
AMID A RELATIVELY WEAK BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES...A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME CLOUD BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR A DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ON THE SOUTHERN/PERHAPS EASTERN PERIPHERY OF IT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS. A PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE/SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN ORE/NORTHWEST NV...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA ON
MONDAY WILL AID ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CA INTO ADJACENT SOUTHERN
ORE/NORTHWEST NV. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND COULD POSE
A RISK FOR LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS. SUCH POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...BUT SUCH WILL BE REEVALUATED IN THE SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 PERIOD.

..GUYER.. 05/13/2012

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KTAE [131656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 131656
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1256 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM TSTM WND GST 11 NNE PANAMA CITY BEAC 30.36N 85.80W
05/13/2012 M46 MPH BAY FL ASOS

MEASURED AT NW FLORIDA BEACHES INTL AIRPORT ASOS...KECP.


&&

$$

08-LAMERS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131631
SWODY1
SPC AC 131629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CNTRL-SERN NM / PARTS
OF W TX...

...MUCH OF CNTRL-SERN NM / PARTS OF W TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS ERN UT WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
BY THIS EVENING. ELY-COMPONENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED TODAY /DEWPOINTS RANGING UPPER 40S-MID 50S/ UNDERNEATH A
RESERVOIR OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES PRIMARILY ALONG AND W
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OWING TO CLOUD COVER E...MODELS SHOW A
THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE W EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO N-CNTRL NM. THIS IS WHERE MODELS INITIATE STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE...ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY THREATS PRIOR TO DUSK WILL BE ISOLD
WIND/HAIL...WITH STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STORMS PERSISTING AFTER DARK AND EXHIBITING UPSCALE GROWTH AS THEY
MOVE SEWD. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD POSE PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT LATE
TONIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL AND MOVE INTO THE TRANSPECOS RIVER VALLEY
AND SWRN TX.

...FL PANHANDLE / SERN AL...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT/ IS MOVING
ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION TODAY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF INTO
SERN AL WITH A MARINE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.
THE AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. A WIND PROFILE FEATURING A
MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL FETCH VEERING TO 30 KT WSWLY 6KM FLOW WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS ENCOUNTER A
MORE VORTICITY-RICH ZONE INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT/COAST. AN ISOLD
WEAK TORNADO AND A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SEVERE ACTIVITY LARGELY ABATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REFERENCE
MCD #800 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/13/2012

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KTAE [131612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 131612
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1212 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 WNW INLET BEACH 30.29N 86.04W
05/13/2012 WALTON FL BROADCAST MEDIA

RAPIDLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD OBSERVED WITH A POSSIBLE
BRIEF OR RAIN WRAPPED FUNNEL.


&&

$$

08-LAMERS

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KDTX [131552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 131552
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN FAIRGROVE 43.52N 83.54W
05/13/2012 M1.60 INCH TUSCOLA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 TOTAL ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST RAIN FELL ON
CALANDAR DAY OF MAY 12.


&&

$$

OROW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0800

ACUS11 KWNS 131542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131541
FLZ000-ALZ000-131745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CORNER
OF AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131541Z - 131745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES DEVELOPING
FROM THE NCNTRL GULF INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE MAY CONTINUE TO POSE
A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE
NERN GULF WWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. A MOIST WARM SECTOR EXISTS IN VICINITY
OF AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. DESPITE
PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL /500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE/ DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS FROM VWP DATA INDICATE 150-200
M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS AOB 30 KT WITH SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER FROM 30-35 KT WHICH APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY MODEST
SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION GIVEN WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AS THEY MOVE EWD
AND INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT OR SEA BREEZE. TENDENCY HAS BEEN
FOR WINDS IN THE 0-2 KM LAYER TO WEAKEN AS THE MODEST LLJ SHIFTS
NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE UNSTABLE WARMS SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 31148599 30438527 30128526 30088554 30318604 30578629
30868631 31148599

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KMOB [131332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KMOB 131332
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
832 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0717 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SW SEMINOLE 30.43N 86.47W
05/13/2012 GMZ655 FL 911 CALL CENTER

REPORTED FROM EMA AND POLICE. WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED WEST
OF MID BAY BRIDGE IN CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY.


&&

$$

JFB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131250
SWODY1
SPC AC 131248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL/ERN NM AND W TX...

...NM/W TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS NM/FAR W TX...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S HAVE SPREAD WWD TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...A MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
OVER NRN UT AS OF 12Z...AND THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SEWD TO NE AZ/NW NM
BY EARLY MONDAY. DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WNWLY
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NM...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD OVER THE PLAINS
OF E/SE NM TO W TX LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
HIGH-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE EVENING...THE PROSPECTS
FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO WILL INCREASE INVOF SE NM/W
TX...AS LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND COLD POOL
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS INCREASE.

...NE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS EJECTING NEWD OVER SRN AL THIS
MORNING...WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE/SE AL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPEED MAX IS CONTRIBUTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SMALL STORMS ALONG THE NE EDGE OF THE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WHERE A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
INTERSECTS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST.
GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 200
M2/S2 IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG...ROTATING
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO. THE SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY PEAK BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SPEED
MAX AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE MORE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/13/2012

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0799

ACUS11 KWNS 131221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131220
FLZ000-131315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131220Z - 131315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
ACROSS WRN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED IN TIME/SPACE FOR
A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/SATL AND LTG TRENDS ALL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
TSTMS ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS AND SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
INTO THE EXTREME WRN PORTION OF THE FL PNHDL. A WARM FRONT IS ALSO
SITUATED ONSHORE FROM EAST OF MOBILE BAY EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST TO APALACHICOLA. A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS FUELING
THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT THAT IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY THE APPROACH
OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/40KT JET STREAK PER LATEST
OBJECTIVE DATA.

TLH VWP AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
INDICATIVE OF WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND
RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. DISCRETE STORM UPDRAFTS AMIDST THIS SHEARED
FLOW REGIME HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ROTATION OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO WITH ONE CELL MOVING ACROSS FORT WALTON BEACH AND A
NUMBER OF OTHER CELLS BETWEEN 20 AND 60 MILES OFFSHORE.

STORM SCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY
ACCURATE IN DEPICTING THE CURRENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE MOST
LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OTHER STORM
SCALE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
STORMS TO CROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
STRENGTH OF STORM UPDRAFTS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED BY GENERALLY WEAK
LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY LIMITED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
AND...DESPITE MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT
LAYER...OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE FLOW IS LIKELY TO LIMIT MESOCYCLONE
STRENGTH. NONETHELESS...A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION INCREASES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FURTHER GRADUAL DIURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THE OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME AND A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 05/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30338723 30678718 30808665 30738617 30508571 30068553
30058646 30338723

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KMOB [131221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 131221
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
720 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0717 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SW SEMINOLE 30.46N 87.53W
05/13/2012 BALDWIN AL 911 CALL CENTER

REPORTED FROM EMA AND POLICE.WEST OF MID BAY BRIDGE.


&&

$$

MAB

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130851
SWOD48
SPC AC 130850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/CMC...12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MAJORITY OF 00Z GEFS
MEMBERS SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AROUND D5-6.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WRN INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS. TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH AND AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE N-CNTRL CONUS NEXT WEEKEND. BUT WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN
THE WRN GULF UNTIL LATE WEEK...SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO YIELD
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 05/13/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD/WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AND ENCOMPASS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE SHOULD AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO PERHAPS THE GREAT
LAKES...IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW DAMPENS
AS IT PROGRESSES OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/15Z SREF COMPARED TO THE 00Z
GFS/NAM WITH THE FORMER DEPICTING A SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED/SRN
TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUE. MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LARGELY
PROGGED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE SCHEME ACTIVATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
SUBSTANTIAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AT PEAK HEATING. WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR LARGELY CONCENTRATED IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS...THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION. BUT GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS WITH TIMING AND BUOYANCY...WILL ONLY ADD
MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 05/13/2012

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KABQ [130645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 130645
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1245 AM MDT SUN MAY 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.31W
05/12/2012 E1.00 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0420 PM HAIL 6 NE SAPELLO 35.83N 105.18W
05/12/2012 E0.75 INCH MORA NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201166 ABQ1201167

$$

SHY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130554
SWODY2
SPC AC 130553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH A NARROW WRN RIDGE BEING IMPINGED BY
A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN CA. MOST PROMINENT IMPULSE
E OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NM/ERN AZ AT 12Z/MON...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING SEWD INTO THE BIG BEND OF TX BY MON EVENING.

...FAR WRN TX/SRN NM...
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE D1 PERIOD...WITH A TSTM CLUSTER
OR TWO POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT 12Z/MON...RENDERS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BY MON AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND
ASSOCIATED 4-KM NEST ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF
TSTMS ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS IN
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG BEND /SEE D1 OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION/. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS UPSLOPE FLOW
STRENGTHENS WITH APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. OTHER GUIDANCE
IS FARTHER N WITH LATE D1/EARLY D2 CONVECTION...INDICATING STRONGER
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURRING ON MON IN FAR WRN TX. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WILL ADD A
LOW-END SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
REFINEMENTS TO THIS AREA BASED ON SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC...
GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD/WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING MON MORNING AND EVOLVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
WEAK...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AMIDST 25-30 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS
MAY YIELD MARGINALLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN CA...SRN/CNTRL ORE...NWRN NV...
WITH APPROACH OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED AROUND 34 N/130 W...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON MON.
GIVEN BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES AT PRESENT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN HIGH-BASED AND COULD POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED
MICROBURSTS. BUT WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL ELYS AND STRONGER FLOW
REMAINING CONFINED S OF THE LOW TRACK...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
TSTMS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 05/13/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130513
SWODY1
SPC AC 130511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO FAR WEST
TX...

...SRN ROCKIES/FAR WEST TX...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST DIGGING SEWD TOWARD UT/CO. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 21Z ENSURING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM FOR HEATING. GIVEN THAT CONVECTION HAS READILY DEVELOPED
ACROSS CO/NM THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
INITIATE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
EXTEND ACROSS ERN AZ/SWRN NM INTO FAR WEST TX AS CONVECTION EVOLVES.
RESULTANT TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE
AS UPDRAFTS INGEST MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT SEVERE THREAT THOUGH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE RISK AREA...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LFC LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 3KM AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. LATE IN THE PERIOD SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS COULD LOOSELY ORGANIZE AS THEY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SRN NM
INTO FAR WEST TX AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES INTO THE
BIG BEND REGION.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN TN...

UPPER VORT MAX IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS AL INTO NRN GA BY 18Z. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT
SHOULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 05/13/2012

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KJAN [130421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 130421
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM TSTM WND DMG LAUREL 31.69N 89.14W
05/12/2012 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINES DOWN ON INDIAN SPRINGS RD AND TREES DOWN ON
POWER LINES IN THE SHADY GROVE AREA.

0100 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N LAUREL 31.75N 89.14W
05/12/2012 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

THERE WAS SHINGLE DAMAGE AND TREES DOWN ON SLEEPY HOLLOW
ROAD IN SHADY GROVE.

0100 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N LAUREL 31.75N 89.14W
05/12/2012 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWN IN SHADY GROVE.


0101 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW LAUREL 31.75N 89.17W
05/12/2012 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF OFF OF MOBILE HOME ON OLD BARN RD---SHADY GROVE
AREA. SEVERAL LIMBS DOWN ALSO.

0203 PM HAIL NW MAGEE 31.87N 89.73W
05/12/2012 E0.88 INCH SIMPSON MS PUBLIC

0215 PM HAIL 3 NE MAGEE 31.90N 89.69W
05/12/2012 E0.50 INCH SIMPSON MS EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE DRY CREEK COMMUNITY


&&

$$

CME

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