DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 132000
SWODY1
SPC AC 131958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND
SOUTHWEST TX...

...MUCH OF NM/SOUTHWEST TX/SOUTHEAST CO...
TSTMS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE...ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING/STEADILY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR NM. SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED /BELOW/ REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED...WITH INITIAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NM...AND SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH/SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING CLUSTERS BY THIS EVENING. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 801 FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES WERE EXTENDED FARTHER NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...BUT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL/ISOLATED.

...AL/WESTERN GA/FL PANHANDLE...
A LIMITED WIND DAMAGE/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COULD BE THE CASE WITH PERSISTENT TSTMS ACROSS FL
PANHANDLE/NORTH FL...OR MORE SO ACROSS EASTERN AL/FAR WESTERN GA IN
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT/ASSOCIATED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 802 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..GUYER.. 05/13/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012/

...MUCH OF CNTRL-SERN NM / PARTS OF W TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS ERN UT WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
BY THIS EVENING. ELY-COMPONENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED TODAY /DEWPOINTS RANGING UPPER 40S-MID 50S/ UNDERNEATH A
RESERVOIR OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES PRIMARILY ALONG AND W
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OWING TO CLOUD COVER E...MODELS SHOW A
THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE W EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO N-CNTRL NM. THIS IS WHERE MODELS INITIATE STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE...ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY THREATS PRIOR TO DUSK WILL BE ISOLD
WIND/HAIL...WITH STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STORMS PERSISTING AFTER DARK AND EXHIBITING UPSCALE GROWTH AS THEY
MOVE SEWD. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD POSE PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT LATE
TONIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL AND MOVE INTO THE TRANSPECOS RIVER VALLEY
AND SWRN TX.

...FL PANHANDLE / SERN AL...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT/ IS MOVING
ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION TODAY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF INTO
SERN AL WITH A MARINE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.
THE AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. A WIND PROFILE FEATURING A
MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL FETCH VEERING TO 30 KT WSWLY 6KM FLOW WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS ENCOUNTER A
MORE VORTICITY-RICH ZONE INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT/COAST. AN ISOLD
WEAK TORNADO AND A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SEVERE ACTIVITY LARGELY ABATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REFERENCE
MCD #800 FOR SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

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