KPIH [260343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 260343
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
943 PM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 PM SNOW HAILEY 43.51N 114.30W
10/25/2011 M1.0 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CHATTINGS

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KCYS [260315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260315
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
915 PM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0914 PM HEAVY SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/25/2011 E6.0 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES. WAS STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KHNX [260313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 260313
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
813 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON 35.69N 117.89W
10/25/2011 M46.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0655 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
10/25/2011 M47.00 MPH KERN CA AWOS

&&

$$

BINGHAM

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KCYS [260308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260308
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
908 PM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0906 PM SNOW SARATOGA 41.45N 106.81W
10/25/2011 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE SNOW ON THE ROADS HAVE MELTED. THE SNOW ON THE GRASS
REMAINS.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KCYS [260249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260249
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
849 PM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM SNOW 10 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
10/25/2011 M5.0 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1 INCH IN PAST HOUR. SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 4 TO 7
INCHES. SMALL FINE FLAKES HAVE BEGAN DRIFTING. VISIBILITY
WAS STILL LOW RANGING BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE MILE.

&&

$$

HAHN

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KCYS [260246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260246
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
845 PM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM SNOW 16 SE SARATOGA 41.29N 106.59W
10/25/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0810 PM SNOW 6 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.42W
10/25/2011 E3.0 INCH ALBANY WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0810 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
10/25/2011 E4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 PM SNOW SAGE CREEK BASIN 41.40N 107.26W
10/25/2011 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SWE 0.2. RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION 7850.

0700 PM SNOW OLD BATTLE 41.15N 106.97W
10/25/2011 E5.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SWE 0.5.RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION 10000.

0700 PM SNOW WEBBER SPRINGS 41.16N 106.93W
10/25/2011 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SWE 0.2. RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION9250

0700 PM SNOW SOUTH BRUSH CREEK 41.33N 106.50W
10/25/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SWE 0.4. RATIO 10/1/ ELEVATION 8440.

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW NORTH FRENCH CREEK 41.33N 106.38W
10/25/2011 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SWE 0.6. RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION 10130.

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW N SAND LAKE 41.46N 106.28W
10/25/2011 E7.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SWE 0.7. RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION 10050.

0700 PM SNOW BROOKLYN LAKE 41.36N 106.23W
10/25/2011 E3.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

SWE 0.3. RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION 10240.

0700 PM SNOW 2 NNW ROB ROY RESERVOIR 41.24N 106.26W
10/25/2011 E3.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

THIS IS CINNABAR PARK. SWE 0.3. RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION
9574.

0700 PM SNOW CROW CREEK 41.23N 105.38W
10/25/2011 E3.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

SWE 0.3. RATIO 10/1. ELEVATION 8330.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KLSX [260213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 260213
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
913 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0908 PM HAIL 2 E LORAINE 40.15N 91.18W
10/25/2011 E0.25 INCH ADAMS IL EMERGENCY MNGR

0908 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E LORAINE 40.15N 91.18W
10/25/2011 E45 MPH ADAMS IL EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

KANOFSKY

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KLSX [260133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 260133
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
832 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0814 PM HAIL MONTICELLO 40.12N 91.71W
10/25/2011 M0.25 INCH LEWIS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BRITT

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KPSR [260122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 260122
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
622 PM MST TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 5 SE GLENDALE 33.52N 112.15W
10/25/2011 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL AT 43RD AVENUE AND BETHANY HOME ROAD.

&&

$$

DGREEN

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KPSR [260116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 260116
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
616 PM MST TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0601 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W EL MIRAGE 33.59N 112.37W
10/25/2011 M50 MPH MARICOPA AZ OTHER FEDERAL

GUST REPORTED AT LUKE AIR FORCE BASE.

&&

$$

DGREEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260100
SWODY1
SPC AC 260058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...IL...IND...WRN OH...SRN LOWER MI...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD FROM NRN IL TOWARDS LAKE
ERIE BY 12Z WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY ERUPTING
WITHIN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN IL SWWD TO THE
MS RIVER...AND THESE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS...WITH HAIL BECOMING THE DOMINANT THREAT OVERNIGHT AS PARCELS
BECOME ELEVATED. SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. FOR
MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272.

...SERN KS/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO...
REMOVED LOW END HAIL PROBS DUE TO EXPECTED VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT...PARAMETERS IN
PLACE DO NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER. A RATHER
MEAGER MOIST LAYER AS DEPICTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS FURTHER
SUGGESTS THAT STRONG CONVECTION MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR.

..JEWELL.. 10/26/2011

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KDVN [260057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 260057
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
757 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM HAIL 1 S GALVA 41.15N 90.04W
10/25/2011 E0.25 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY CITY OF GALVA ESDA

&&

$$

MCCLURE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2273

ACUS11 KWNS 252357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252356
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-260400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S CNTRL/SERN WY AND CNTRL CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 252356Z - 260400Z

SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING...WITH RATES
INCREASING TO 1-2 INCH AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

A POWERFUL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD
OVERNIGHT...WITH A DUAL JET STRUCTURE FOCUSING ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. ONE JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A
SEPARATE...STRONGER JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. DIURNAL AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...WHILE COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...PARTICULARLY IN NERN CO/SERN WY.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE ARE REPORTING
SNOWFALL...INDICATING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6-7 KFT. THE COOLER AIR
MASS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWWD. OTHER SITES CONTINUE TO REPORT
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...CONFIRMING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. GIVEN
DEEP LAYER MOISTENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR
MASS IN ADDITION TO IMPLIED CONVECTIVE RATES WITH LIGHTNING RECENTLY
REPORTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE...HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1-2
INCH AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

..HURLBUT.. 10/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...GJT...

LAT...LON 41420706 42020606 41670423 40900357 39930427 39320500
39140594 39250703 39720728 41420706

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2272

ACUS11 KWNS 252356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252356
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MO...EXTREME SERN IA...WRN/NRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252356Z - 260230Z

TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN PORTIONS DISCUSSION AREA AND WILL MOVE
EWD WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 02Z. 3-4 HOUR WINDOW APPEARS
MOST PROBABLE FOR THREAT OF OCNL/ISOLATED SVR HAIL BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z.

23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NERN IA...FCST TO
MOVE EWD OVER IL/WI BORDER REGION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...WHILE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS SERN IA AND N-CENTRAL MO.
PRE COLD-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN FROM WARM-FRONTAL
INTERSECTION NEAR RFD SWWD ACROSS QUAD CITIES AREA THEN CURVING SWD
ACROSS CLARK COUNTY MO TO NEAR COU. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO REPRESENT WRN BOUND OF MOST DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...WITH
CONVERGENCE REINFORCED ONCE FRONT CATCHES CONFLUENCE LINE DURING
02Z-04Z PERIOD. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER WRN IA...THAT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO ASCENT/LAPSE RATES ALOFT. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION...NEAR STRENGTHENING LLJ...SHOULD
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL THETAE TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL AID
FURTHER IN ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION.

AFTER ABOUT 03Z...HAIL POTENTIAL WILL LEVEL OFF THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH. DIABATIC SFC COOLING SHOULD STRENGTHEN MLCINH WITH
INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED. MEANWHILE MUCH OF
CONVECTION MAY OUTRUN RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE PARCELS NOW
ARE SFC-BASED...AS LLJ VEERS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 39659220 41029164 41978975 41438864 40588878 39229097
39459188 39659220

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KGRR [252025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252025
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
425 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 5 NW FREESOIL 44.15N 86.30W
10/25/2011 E0.75 INCH MASON MI EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

JK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251945
SWODY1
SPC AC 251943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO EARLIER FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
NWD SHIFT TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WI/LOWER MI TO ACCOUNT FOR
WARM ADVECTION TSTM ACTIVITY.

REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS IL/IND...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEPENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THIS REGION. A FEW ROBUST STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS QUITE
LIMITED.

..DARROW.. 10/25/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011/

...KS/NRN OK ENE INTO MO/IL/IND/OH...

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1/REDUCING COVERAGE OF MRGL SVR
WIND PROBABILITIES OVER THE MIDWEST. 2/ SPLITTING LOW-END SVR HAIL
RISKS WITH ONE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER CONFINED TO THE SRN
PLAINS.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN ALONG A SEWD
MOVING CDFNT WILL LIMIT SVR PROBABILITIES...BUT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SPORADIC TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING. 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL WARM/DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE 900 MB
FARTHER SW INTO THE OZARKS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATING FACTOR
IN SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THAT REGION.

OVER THE MIDWEST...NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS WILL FORM EARLY THIS EVE
OVER CNTRL AND NRN IL IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LVL ASCENT NEAR SFC
LOW. RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL
CLOUD LAYER FLOW MAY YIELD SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME
STORMS. 40 KT MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ALSO COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLD STRONG SFC GUSTS. THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO
IND AND OH OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILISTIC SVR
THREAT.

FARTHER SW...WEAK MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...ESPECIALLY TNGT...MAY SUPPORT A SMALL
CLUSTER OR TWO OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL FROM NRN OK INTO PARTS
OF KS.

...NRN AZ...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FCST.

MODERATELY STRONG WSW UPR FLOW AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL OVERSPREAD AZ LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. LOW LVL
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY FOSTER SCTD AFTN TSTMS ON THE RIM...AND
PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY SUB-SVR HAIL.

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KGRB [251805]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 251805
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
105 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM HAIL NEENAH 44.18N 88.44W
10/25/2011 M0.50 INCH WINNEBAGO WI TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS 5/8 INCH DIAMETER.

&&

$$

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KGRB [251727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 251727
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1223 PM HAIL 1 S NEENAH 44.17N 88.44W
10/25/2011 M0.50 INCH WINNEBAGO WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SAC

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KGRB [251713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 251713
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1213 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1213 PM HAIL ASHWAUBENON 44.46N 88.08W
10/25/2011 M0.50 INCH BROWN WI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AT THE NWS STATION.

&&

$$

SAC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251709
SWODY2
SPC AC 251708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
SRN ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SEVERAL LARGER
ZONES OF PRECIPITATION...INDUCED PRIMARILY WITHIN A POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AS POOR WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY/INHIBITION WILL PROVE
DETRIMENTAL FOR FREE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR NEAR SFC-BASED ACTIVITY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S. EVEN SO CONVECTION WILL BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT AND
ASCENT ATOP FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR UPDRAFTS.

ACROSS SOUTH FL...RICHER MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS WITHIN DEEPER ESELY FLOW WELL EAST OF HURRICANE RINA.
ALTHOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION
IT APPEARS HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS.

..DARROW.. 10/25/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251608
SWODY1
SPC AC 251606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...KS/NRN OK ENE INTO MO/IL/IND/OH...

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1/REDUCING COVERAGE OF MRGL SVR
WIND PROBABILITIES OVER THE MIDWEST. 2/ SPLITTING LOW-END SVR HAIL
RISKS WITH ONE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER CONFINED TO THE SRN
PLAINS.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN ALONG A SEWD
MOVING CDFNT WILL LIMIT SVR PROBABILITIES...BUT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SPORADIC TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING. 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL WARM/DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE 900 MB
FARTHER SW INTO THE OZARKS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATING FACTOR
IN SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THAT REGION.

OVER THE MIDWEST...NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS WILL FORM EARLY THIS EVE
OVER CNTRL AND NRN IL IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LVL ASCENT NEAR SFC
LOW. RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL
CLOUD LAYER FLOW MAY YIELD SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME
STORMS. 40 KT MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ALSO COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLD STRONG SFC GUSTS. THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO
IND AND OH OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILISTIC SVR
THREAT.

FARTHER SW...WEAK MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...ESPECIALLY TNGT...MAY SUPPORT A SMALL
CLUSTER OR TWO OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL FROM NRN OK INTO PARTS
OF KS.

...NRN AZ...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FCST.

MODERATELY STRONG WSW UPR FLOW AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL OVERSPREAD AZ LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. LOW LVL
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY FOSTER SCTD AFTN TSTMS ON THE RIM...AND
PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY SUB-SVR HAIL.

..RACY/COHEN.. 10/25/2011

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KMFR [251529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 251529
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 AM EXTREME COLD N TENNANT 41.59N 121.91W
10/25/2011 M14 F SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LOW OF 14 DEGREES ON ONE THERMOMETER...16 DEGREES ON THE
OTHER.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251242
SWODY1
SPC AC 251241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN PORTION OF POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL AMPLIFY
SE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE NRN PART MOVES
GENERALLY E FROM MT TO NRN MN. AS THIS OCCURS...A SERIES OF WEAKER
DISTURBANCES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE ENE IN RESULTING
WSWLY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW NOW OVER NEB...ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE IN
THE CONFLUENT WSWLY FLOW...SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AS IT CONTINUES ENE
INTO SRN MI BY 12Z WED. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH A
STL-TUL-SPS LINE BY THAT TIME.

...KS/NRN OK ENE INTO MO/IL/IND/OH TODAY/TNGT...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL PLNS E/NE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES ALSO WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...WITH A WARM LAYER CENTERED NEAR
800 MB LIKELY PROHIBITING SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER...SCTD ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL SPREAD E FROM ERN
IA/NE MO INTO PARTS OF IL/IND AND MI THROUGH THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH 850-700 MB WAA.

SCTD SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVE OVER CNTRL
AND NRN IL IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LVL ASCENT NEAR SFC LOW.
RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD
LAYER FLOW MAY YIELD SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME STORMS.
40 KT MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ALSO COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD
STRONG SFC GUSTS. THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO IND AND OH
OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILISTIC SVR THREAT.

FARTHER SW...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN THE MID MS
VLY...AND LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG/BEHIND SE-MOVING COLD FRONT. WEAK
MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...ESPECIALLY TNGT...MAY SUPPORT A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO
OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL FROM NRN OK INTO PARTS OF KS AND
WRN/SRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
WED.

...NRN AZ...
MODERATELY STRONG WSW UPR FLOW AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL OVERSPREAD AZ LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. LOW LVL
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY FOSTER SCTD AFTN TSTMS ON THE RIM...AND
PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY SUB-SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/25/2011

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KTFX [251018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 251018
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
418 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM SNOW 18 SE GALLATIN GATEWAY 45.40N 110.96W
10/25/2011 M5.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AT SHOWER
FALLS SNOTEL 8100 FT.

&&

$$

JOH

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KTFX [251015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 251015
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
415 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM SNOW 12 SSE NEIHART 46.78N 110.62W
10/25/2011 M6.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT SPUR PARK
SNOTEL 8100 FT.

&&

$$

JOH

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250858
SWOD48
SPC AC 250857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL GENERALLY PERSIST EAST OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
EXISTS IN THE DETAILS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SPATIAL EXTENT
OF THE WARM SECTOR INLAND ARE IN QUESTION. UNLIKE 00Z GEFS/GFS
GUIDANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF REFLECTS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM
SOLUTION WITH CORRESPONDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/INLAND WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A FEW
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS
FL AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES DAY 4/FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS EARLY DAY 5/SATURDAY. BUT GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY
ASIDE...SEEMINGLY LIMITED POTENTIAL ALSO PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF
ANY 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS.

THEREAFTER...EVEN WHILE APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
EXISTS...THE EXPECTED PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LIKELY KEEP DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VERY LOW THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..GUYER.. 10/25/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250652
SWODY3
SPC AC 250651

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PHASING OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES AND A
SOUTHEAST-DIGGING POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PLAINS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT/AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF
THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS/SPORADIC TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
ALONG/AHEAD OF A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT THAT WILL
INITIALLY EXTEND FROM TX/LA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND GENERAL EXPECTATIONS OF POOR
LAPSE RATES/SCANT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR/NEAR THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE 00Z ECMWF IS INDICATIVE OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION /AS COMPARED TO GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE/ WITH RESPECT TO A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ARKLATEX. SUCH A SCENARIO COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOWER
SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX/LA COASTAL
VICINITIES...WITH A LONGER INLAND DURATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL
WARM/MOIST SECTOR. EVEN SO...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS VERY
LOW OR AT LEAST CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE...SUCH THAT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 10/25/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. WITHIN THIS REGIME...IT
IS LIKELY THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND THE ARKLATEX...WHILE THE FRONT MAKES MORE OF A
FASTER/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL
TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO AREAS
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
STEADY HEIGHT FALLS/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS
/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TSTMS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/SOME HAIL MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AR AND/OR SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK DESTABILIZATION /LESS THAN 500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ SHOULD TEMPER THE POTENTIAL SUCH THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 10/25/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250529
SWODY1
SPC AC 250527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES EWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SINKS
SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE E.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE
IA/IL BORDER INTO SRN KS/WRN NW OK BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WEAK MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S F AT BEST. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN MARGINAL HAIL
AND WIND...CONTINUING EWD OVERNIGHT FROM NERN OK INTO INDIANA AND
WRN OH BY WED MORNING.

...IL/IND/OH INTO MO...KS...OK...
RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...EVEN BY PEAK HEATING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MU
PARCELS WILL BE ELEVATED AT AROUND 850 MB. EVEN SO...FORCING WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO
ERUPT OVER MUCH OF NRN IL BY 00Z. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS
SOME WIND SHEAR WILL AID IN SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT. MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE STORM WITH BE STRONG...WITH 50-60
KT WINDS HELPING TO INDUCE SURFACE GUST POTENTIAL. THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST IN SOME FORM AS THEY TRAVEL INTO INDIANA AND OH
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT.

TO THE SW...FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...FOCUSING ON THE FRONT MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. PERSISTENT COOLING ALOFT AND LIFT NEAR THIS FRONT MAY
HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
MAINLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...FROM NERN OK INTO SRN MO.

...NRN AZ...
RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD AZ AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE DAY. SWLY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE RIM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL AND MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL.

..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 10/25/2011

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