SWODY3
SPC AC 250651
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PHASING OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES AND A
SOUTHEAST-DIGGING POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PLAINS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT/AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF
THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS/SPORADIC TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
ALONG/AHEAD OF A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT THAT WILL
INITIALLY EXTEND FROM TX/LA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND GENERAL EXPECTATIONS OF POOR
LAPSE RATES/SCANT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR/NEAR THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
PERIOD. THAT SAID...THE 00Z ECMWF IS INDICATIVE OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION /AS COMPARED TO GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE/ WITH RESPECT TO A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ARKLATEX. SUCH A SCENARIO COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOWER
SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX/LA COASTAL
VICINITIES...WITH A LONGER INLAND DURATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL
WARM/MOIST SECTOR. EVEN SO...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS VERY
LOW OR AT LEAST CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE...SUCH THAT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 10/25/2011
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