SWOD48
SPC AC 250857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2011
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL GENERALLY PERSIST EAST OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
EXISTS IN THE DETAILS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SPATIAL EXTENT
OF THE WARM SECTOR INLAND ARE IN QUESTION. UNLIKE 00Z GEFS/GFS
GUIDANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF REFLECTS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM
SOLUTION WITH CORRESPONDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/INLAND WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A FEW
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS
FL AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES DAY 4/FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS EARLY DAY 5/SATURDAY. BUT GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY
ASIDE...SEEMINGLY LIMITED POTENTIAL ALSO PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF
ANY 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS.
THEREAFTER...EVEN WHILE APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
EXISTS...THE EXPECTED PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LIKELY KEEP DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VERY LOW THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GUYER.. 10/25/2011
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