KICT [180354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180354
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 PM FLOOD 5 SE LYONS 38.29N 98.14W
10/17/2008 RICE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

AVENUE V BETWEEN 22ND AND PLUM RD IS CLOSED. 22ND ROAD
BETWEEN AVENUE Q AND AVENUE V IS CLOSED. 20TH ROAD
BETWEEN AVENUE R AND AVENUE S IS BARRICADED. THIS
FLOODING IS ALL OCCURRING ALONG THE COW CREEK BASIN.

&&

$$

REC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180050
SWODY1
SPC AC 180048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN AL TO COASTAL NC IS
FAIRLY WEAK AND SHALLOW THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...LIGHTNING HAS
NOT BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR SOME TIME. IN THE ABSENCE
OF MEANINGFUL DEEP CONVECTION IT APPEARS THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF
SHEARING UPPER VORT...AND THIS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

..DARROW.. 10/18/2008

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KTFX [172305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 172305
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
504 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
10/16/2008 M45.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

45 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

1247 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 E LINCOLN 46.95N 112.36W
10/17/2008 M46.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

46 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR ROGERS PASS.

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
10/17/2008 M70.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

70 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0304 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
10/17/2008 M56.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

56 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
10/17/2008 M42.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

42 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.

1128 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
10/17/2008 M46.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

46 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF
LOMA.

1209 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.39W
10/17/2008 M45.00 MPH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

45 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.

&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF PEAK WIND GUSTS OVER THE REGION FROM LAST NIGHT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY.

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171952
SWODY1
SPC AC 171949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SEWD ACROSS MO...WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING DATA HAS INDICATED A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS W/SW MO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...AND STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADS ESEWD INTO LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS WHERE ENVIRONMENT
IS EVEN MORE HOSTILE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED GENERALLY SLOW SWD MOVEMENT
WITH FRONT THAT EXTENDED WWD THROUGH SRN NC INTO NRN SC AND THEN
SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL GA TO THE MS DELTA AND INTO THE WRN GULF. TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE OVER THE WRN GULF THUS FAR TODAY...
WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL GENERAL TSTM AREA ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE...AT BEST...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS YET THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171709
SWODY2
SPC AC 171707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A VERY LOW THREAT FOR GENERAL TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING DAY 2. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LOWER MO VALLEY TROUGH...AS
THIS LATTER FEATURE TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OFF THE CA COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AND SHIFT INLAND SATURDAY REACHING THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN STATES.

...PACIFIC NW...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WA/NW ORE LATE DAY 1 SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THROUGH MUCH OF ORE ON SATURDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS REGION RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE 50-100 J/KG/.

...FL...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA AND GULF COASTS AT 12Z
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN TRACK OF TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE N OF FL WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE GA
TO NC COASTS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER OVER FL PER 09Z NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT
SHOULD BE GENERALLY SHALLOW...LIMITING LIKELIHOOD FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171551
SWODY1
SPC AC 171548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS MOISTENED THE 800-600 MB LAYER...LENDING TO WEAKLY
BUOYANT UPDRAFTS /MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/ AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS MORNING INVOF TOP AND MKC. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE NEAR-TERM.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH SERN EXTENT AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.

...CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS...
AS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES SEWD TOWARDS THE TN
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN
FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST. NEVERTHELESS...12Z RAOBS
ACROSS THE REGION EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES AOB 6 DEG C PER KM FROM
850-500 MB AND THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE DEEP CONVECTION.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 10/17/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171244
SWODY1
SPC AC 171241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TDY ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CORN BELT
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APCHS BY LATE
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN
THE LWR LVLS...A WEAK FRONT SITUATED FROM NC SWWD INTO LA WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE AFTN. A NEW SURGE OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR...FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE CORN BELT DISTURBANCE...WILL
SWEEP INTO THE SERN STATES AND NRN GULF BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY.

...LWR MO VLY...
H7-H5 MOISTENING/COOLING DERIVED FROM STRONG ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN BRIEFLY
PRIOR TO FROPA. AS A RESULT...SPORADIC LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE
LWR MO VLY...ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME SERN NEB INTO NWRN/NCNTRL MO.

...CNTRL GULF CST TO SC...
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPSTREAM IMPULSE. 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EXHIBIT LAPSE
RATES AOB 6 DEG C PER KM AND THIS WILL LIMIT THERMAL BUOYANCY AND
MITIGATE DEEP CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...ISOLD TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST AND
LATER TONIGHT OVER SC.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/17/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170700
SWOD48
SPC AC 170659

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH DAYS 4-6. GIVEN THE
RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN WITH LIMITED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY ULTIMATELY EXIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY/DAY 5 GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS. THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..GUYER.. 10/17/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170526
SWODY3
SPC AC 170525

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE/LARGELY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON DAY
3/SUNDAY. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE SCANT OVER THE CONUS ON SUNDAY
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN VICINITY OF
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND PERHAPS THE ROCKIES AS SEVERAL MINOR LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 10/17/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170523
SWODY2
SPC AC 170521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. UPPER
LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES AS AN
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FL. 00Z
GFS/21Z ETA-KF CONTROL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE...WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION OWING TO A CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL
WARM LAYER.

ACROSS THE WEST...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF AN EAST-SHIFTING CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE. AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...SOME TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMIDST MODEST BUOYANCY. NO SEVERE
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/17/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170519
SWODY1
SPC AC 170516

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

REINFORCING CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES THE
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...CONVECTION COULD STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
LIGHTNING AS WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBIT ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

...MO...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A MATURING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS IT DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST SUSTAINED ASCENT/MOISTENING AT MID LEVELS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
STRONGER FORCING/WARM ADVECTION ZONE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

...CNTRL GULF COAST/SC...

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF STATES/CAROLINAS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT/SW-NE ORIENTED
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOTH THE NAM/GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST DEEP
MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND DEEP
CONVECTION. EVEN SO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ERN GA
INTO SC WHERE INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN ALLOWING MOST
UNSTABLE PARCELS TO ATTAIN LEVELS COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHTNING-FREE.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/17/2008

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