SWODY1
SPC AC 170516
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
REINFORCING CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES THE
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...CONVECTION COULD STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
LIGHTNING AS WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBIT ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
...MO...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A MATURING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS IT DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST SUSTAINED ASCENT/MOISTENING AT MID LEVELS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
STRONGER FORCING/WARM ADVECTION ZONE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...CNTRL GULF COAST/SC...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF STATES/CAROLINAS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD FRONT/SW-NE ORIENTED
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOTH THE NAM/GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST DEEP
MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND DEEP
CONVECTION. EVEN SO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ERN GA
INTO SC WHERE INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN ALLOWING MOST
UNSTABLE PARCELS TO ATTAIN LEVELS COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHTNING-FREE.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/17/2008
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