KBIS [282154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 282154
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM BLIZZARD 2 N MINOT 48.26N 101.29W
12/28/2013 WARD ND ASOS

3 HOUR BLIZZARD CRITERIA MET BEGINING AT 1018 AM.


&&

$$

AYD

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KUNR [282147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 282147
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0843 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/28/2013 M68 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

OBSERVED AT THE K2WX ASOS

1008 AM NON-TSTM WND GST REVA 45.55N 103.08W
12/28/2013 M70 MPH HARDING SD PUBLIC

1040 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE LEMMON 45.92N 102.10W
12/28/2013 M61 MPH PERKINS SD MESONET

MEASURED AT LEMMON SDSU AWDN SITE

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.42N 103.38W
12/28/2013 M64 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

MEASURED AT THE STURGIS AWOS K49B

1139 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE FAITH 45.03N 102.02W
12/28/2013 M59 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE FAITH ASOS KD07

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WALL 44.00N 102.25W
12/28/2013 M61 MPH PENNINGTON SD AWOS

MEASURED AT WALL MUNICIPAL AIRPORT K6V4

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
12/28/2013 M66 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE PINNACLES RAWS

1228 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W PARMELEE 43.32N 101.14W
12/28/2013 M55 MPH TODD SD MESONET

MEASURED BY THE MAGPIE CREEK RAWS

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.60W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE PHILLIP ASOS KPHP

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.29N 102.27W
12/28/2013 M54 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE PORCUPINE RAWS

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.05N 103.06W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE KRAP ASOS

0103 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

MEASURED AT WFO UNR

0135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.16N 103.10W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE WINNER 43.38N 99.85W
12/28/2013 M53 MPH TRIPP SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE WINNER ASOS KICR


&&


THE STORM REPORTS LISTED BELOW ARE IN DESCENDING ORDER AND MAY NOT
NECESSARILY BE THE FINAL STORM REPORTS.




WIND GUST REPORTS LISTED BY SPEED (MPH)

SPEED LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
70.00 REVA SD HARDING 1008 AM
68.00 1 N BUFFALO SD HARDING 0843 AM
OBSERVED AT THE K2WX ASOS
66.00 8 S WALL SD PENNINGTON 1220 PM
MEASURED AT THE PINNACLES RAWS
64.00 7 E DOWNTOWN STURGIS SD MEADE 1115 AM
MEASURED AT THE STURGIS AWOS K49B
61.00 1 NW WALL SD PENNINGTON 1215 PM
MEASURED AT WALL MUNICIPAL AIRPORT K6V4
61.00 3 ESE LEMMON SD PERKINS 1040 AM
MEASURED AT LEMMON SDSU AWDN SITE
60.00 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0103 PM
MEASURED AT WFO UNR
60.00 RAPID CITY AIRPORT SD PENNINGTON 1252 PM
MEASURED AT THE KRAP ASOS
59.00 1 NNE FAITH SD MEADE 1139 AM
MEASURED AT THE FAITH ASOS KD07
56.00 ELLSWORTH AFB SD MEADE 0135 PM
56.00 3 E PHILIP SD HAAKON 1230 PM
MEASURED AT THE PHILLIP ASOS KPHP
55.00 6 W PARMELEE SD TODD 1228 PM
MEASURED BY THE MAGPIE CREEK RAWS
54.00 5 NE PORCUPINE SD SHANNON 1241 PM
MEASURED AT THE PORCUPINE RAWS
53.00 1 NE WINNER SD TRIPP 0201 PM
MEASURED AT THE WINNER ASOS KICR

$$

JC

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KUNR [282147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 282147
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0843 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/28/2013 M68 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

OBSERVED AT THE K2WX ASOS

1008 AM NON-TSTM WND GST REVA 45.55N 103.08W
12/28/2013 M70 MPH HARDING SD PUBLIC

1040 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE LEMMON 45.92N 102.10W
12/28/2013 M61 MPH PERKINS SD MESONET

MEASURED AT LEMMON SDSU AWDN SITE

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.42N 103.38W
12/28/2013 M64 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

MEASURED AT THE STURGIS AWOS K49B

1139 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE FAITH 45.03N 102.02W
12/28/2013 M59 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE FAITH ASOS KD07

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WALL 44.00N 102.25W
12/28/2013 M61 MPH PENNINGTON SD AWOS

MEASURED AT WALL MUNICIPAL AIRPORT K6V4

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
12/28/2013 M66 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE PINNACLES RAWS

1228 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W PARMELEE 43.32N 101.14W
12/28/2013 M55 MPH TODD SD MESONET

MEASURED BY THE MAGPIE CREEK RAWS

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.60W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE PHILLIP ASOS KPHP

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.29N 102.27W
12/28/2013 M54 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE PORCUPINE RAWS

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.05N 103.06W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE KRAP ASOS

0103 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

MEASURED AT WFO UNR

0135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.16N 103.10W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE WINNER 43.38N 99.85W
12/28/2013 M53 MPH TRIPP SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE WINNER ASOS KICR


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [282146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 282146
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE WINNER 43.38N 99.85W
12/28/2013 M53 MPH TRIPP SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE WINNER ASOS KICR


&&

$$

JC

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KLBF [282139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 282139
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
12/28/2013 M52 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

0320 PM HIGH SUST WINDS VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
12/28/2013 M38 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

0235 PM HIGH SUST WINDS AINSWORTH 42.55N 99.86W
12/28/2013 M35 MPH BROWN NE AWOS


&&

$$

JGOMEZ

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KUNR [282135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 282135
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
235 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.16N 103.10W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH MEADE SD ASOS


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [282132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 282132
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.60W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE PHILLIP ASOS KPHP


&&

$$

JC

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KCYS [282123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 282123
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
223 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
12/28/2013 M33 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND 24 MPH.

0213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE AGATE 42.42N 103.74W
12/28/2013 M39 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WIND 26 MPH.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KFGF [282116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 282116
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM BLIZZARD 5 E MOORHEAD 46.86N 96.65W
12/28/2013 CLAY MN PUBLIC

VIA FACEBOOK. REPORTED 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BETWEEN MOORHEAD AND GLYNDON. KFAR REPORTED 43 KT GUST.


&&

$$

JAM

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KCYS [282109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 282109
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
209 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SCOTTSBLUFF 41.87N 103.66W
12/28/2013 M36 MPH SCOTTS BLUFF NE ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND 25 MPH.

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
12/28/2013 M36 MPH KIMBALL NE AWOS

SUSTAINED WIND 29 MPH


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KUNR [282106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 282106
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1228 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W PARMELEE 43.32N 101.14W
12/28/2013 M55 MPH TODD SD MESONET

MEASURED BY THE MAGPIE CREEK RAWS


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [282105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 282105
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
205 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.29N 102.27W
12/28/2013 M54 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE PORCUPINE RAWS


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [282101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 282101
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
201 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.05N 103.06W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE KRAP ASOS


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [282045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 282045
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
145 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0103 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

MEASURED AT WFO UNR


&&

$$

JC

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KCYS [282038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 282038
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
138 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0113 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE AGATE 42.42N 103.74W
12/28/2013 M45 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WIND 21 MPH.

0111 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 10 E HARRISON 42.68N 103.68W
12/28/2013 M48 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KCYS [282030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 282030
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
130 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 WNW AGATE DAM RESERVO 42.99N 103.65W
12/28/2013 M44 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1256 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 10 E HARRISON 42.68N 103.68W
12/28/2013 E44 MPH SIOUX NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1243 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 6 ESE BROADWATER 41.56N 102.75W
12/28/2013 M37 MPH MORRILL NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0111 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 6 SE HARRISBURG 41.49N 103.65W
12/28/2013 M43 MPH BANNER NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KFGF [282014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 282014
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
213 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM BLIZZARD SHERACK 48.02N 96.78W
12/28/2013 POLK MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF INDICATED SEVERAL ACCIDENTS ALONG COUNTY 21 IN
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY WITH ZERO VISIBILITY.

0206 PM BLIZZARD STARKWEATHER 48.45N 98.88W
12/28/2013 RAMSEY ND CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER REPORTS ZERO VISIBILITY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.



&&

$$

JAM

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KCYS [282005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 282005
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
105 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
12/28/2013 M40 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND 33 MPH.

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KIMBALL 41.23N 103.66W
12/28/2013 M36 MPH KIMBALL NE AWOS

SUSTAINED WIND 29 MPH.

1241 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 SW ANGORA 41.80N 103.16W
12/28/2013 E30 MPH MORRILL NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KFGF [281954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 281954
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
154 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 PM BLIZZARD PEMBINA 48.97N 97.25W
12/28/2013 PEMBINA ND PUBLIC

ESTIMATED VISIBILITY OF 100 YARDS. RELAYED VIA TWITTER.

1245 PM BLIZZARD 10 NE DEVILS LAKE 48.22N 98.72W
12/28/2013 RAMSEY ND PUBLIC

ESTIMATED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 50 YARDS. VIA FACEBOOK.

1252 PM BLIZZARD HAMILTON 48.81N 97.45W
12/28/2013 PEMBINA ND PUBLIC

NEAR ZERO VISBILITY REPORTED. VIA FACEBOOK.

0130 PM BLIZZARD 6 E LANKIN 48.31N 97.79W
12/28/2013 WALSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER

ESTIMATED NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WITH 40+ MPH WINDS IN THE
PAST HALF HOUR.

0131 PM BLIZZARD 8 W STEPHEN 48.45N 97.05W
12/28/2013 MARSHALL MN PUBLIC

ESTIMATED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/10 MILE...WITH NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. VIA FACEBOOK.


&&

$$

JAM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281951
SWODY1
SPC AC 281949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CURRENT THUNDER AREA BEING MADE THIS
FORECAST. A BAND OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM OVER THE NRN GULF --
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER -- AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
BRIEF TORNADO WILL LIKEWISE EXIST...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS CONVECTION SHIFTS GRADUALLY EWD/NEWD.

..GOSS.. 12/28/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013/

...FL/GA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE ABOUT 200MI SSW OF MOB. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MOVE ASHORE THIS
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY RATHER DRY AND STABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. THIS WILL YIELD SOME CONCERN FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
PARCELS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROTATING STORMS. AS THE NEAR SURFACE
AIR MASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES...A LOW POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA. THIS THREAT WILL PRIMARILY EXIST AFTER
ABOUT 22Z.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY.

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KUNR [281942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281942
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1242 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE FAITH 45.03N 102.02W
12/28/2013 M59 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE FAITH ASOS KD07


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281940
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1240 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
12/28/2013 M66 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE PINNACLES RAWS


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281939
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1239 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WALL 44.00N 102.25W
12/28/2013 M61 MPH PENNINGTON SD AWOS

MEASURED AT WALL MUNICIPAL AIRPORT K6V4


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281921
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1221 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1008 AM NON-TSTM WND GST REVA 45.55N 103.08W
12/28/2013 M70 MPH HARDING SD PUBLIC


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281900
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1200 PM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1124 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.05N 103.06W
12/28/2013 M58 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

MEASURED AT KRAP


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281844
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1144 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.42N 103.38W
12/28/2013 M64 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

MEASURED AT THE STURGIS AWOS K49B


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281836
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1136 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
12/28/2013 M59 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

MEASURED AT THE PINNACLES RAWS


&&

$$

JC

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KTFX [281825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 281825
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1124 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INVERNESS 48.55N 110.65W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH HILL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENOSR NEAR INVERNESS.

0120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 E FERDIG 48.78N 111.57W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0158 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.47N 111.38W
12/28/2013 M45 MPH CASCADE MT ASOS

45 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

0221 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 12 S RUDYARD 48.39N 110.54W
12/28/2013 M40 MPH HILL MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH FROM 1236 AM TO 221 AM.

0230 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 W HARLEM 48.53N 108.83W
12/28/2013 M45 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 40 MPH FROM 130 AM TO 230 AM.

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 SE CASCADE 47.06N 111.39W
12/28/2013 M62 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET

62 MPH WIND GUST AT MILLEGAN.

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.66W
12/28/2013 CHOUTEAU MT PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED DAMAGE TO HOUSE SIDING DUE TO STRONG
WINDS. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0246 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NW JOPLIN 48.70N 110.99W
12/28/2013 M54 MPH LIBERTY MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH SINCE 1236 AM MST

0246 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 WNW WHITLASH 48.94N 111.43W
12/28/2013 M40 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH FROM 131 AM TO 246 AM

0256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
12/28/2013 M51 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

51 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR PENDROY.

0307 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SSE BRADY 47.94N 111.78W
12/28/2013 M66 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0318 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S FORT BELKNAP 48.30N 108.72W
12/28/2013 M63 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 63 MPH.

0330 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 23 N HAVRE 48.88N 109.68W
12/28/2013 M40 MPH HILL MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH FROM 100 AM TO 330 AM.

0405 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
12/28/2013 M54 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR SIEBEN FLATS ON
INTERSTATE 15.

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 N HELENA 46.72N 112.00W
12/28/2013 M50 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET

50 MPH WIND GUST NEAR LINCOLN ROAD. TIME OF EVENT IS
ESTIMATED.

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S CHOTEAU 47.78N 112.18W
12/28/2013 M70 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED WIND GUST AT 70 MPH BEFORE WIND GAUGE BLEW OFF
ROOF.

0706 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S GARNEILL 46.74N 109.75W
12/28/2013 M63 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MLV

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KUNR [281807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281807
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE FAITH 45.03N 102.02W
12/28/2013 M58 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

MEASURED AT THE KD07 ASOS


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281752
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1052 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE LEMMON 45.92N 102.10W
12/28/2013 M61 MPH PERKINS SD MESONET

MEASURED AT LEMMON SDSU AWDN SITE


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [281748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281748
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.42N 103.38W
12/28/2013 M50 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

MEASURED AT THE STURGIS AWOS K49B


&&

$$

JC

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KDLH [281747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 281747
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1147 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1144 AM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
12/28/2013 M0.4 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

LIGHT SNOW AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.


&&

$$

KK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH -- EVOLVING AS NRN AND SRN STREAM FEATURES
CONTINUE PHASING -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE LARGER/EVOLVING TROUGH...A LEAD
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST/MID SOUTH REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.

WHILE A COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF POLAR AIR WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE MAIN FEATURE WITH
RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE A ZONE OF CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE SERN STATES. HERE...A LOW INITIALLY INVOF ERN GA --
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH -- IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT...MEAGER WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED -- FUELING
AN AREA OF MAINLY WEAK CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS SWWD TO SERN GA/NERN FL...
AS THE ERN GA SURFACE LOW SHIFTS QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD WITH TIME...A RESULTING SEWD COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SC/GA AND INTO N FL DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN
CONJUNCTION...A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKEWISE MOVE QUICKLY EWD...LIKELY CLEARING THE SC/GA/NERN FL
COASTS BY NOON. WHILE ONSHORE HOWEVER...A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD VEERING
GRADUALLY WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO -- AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.

THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD EXIST NEAR AND NE OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATICS WILL EXIST -- THUS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE MEAGER INSTABILITY. WHILE THE FRONT SURGES
OFFSHORE ACROSS GA AND SC...A NARROW WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN
INLAND ACROSS ERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNSET --
ALLOWING SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL
HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAGER WARM-SECTOR INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
THAT SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.

FARTHER S...MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING CENTRAL AND S FL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT SAGS MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...AND DEEP-LAYER MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ALOFT
MUCH WEAKER THAN AREAS FARTHER N...SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL.

..GOSS.. 12/28/2013

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KTFX [281723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281723
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S CHOTEAU 47.78N 112.18W
12/28/2013 M70 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED WIND GUST AT 70 MPH BEFORE WIND GAUGE BLEW OFF
ROOF.


&&

$$

MLV

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KTFX [281715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281715
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1014 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0158 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.47N 111.38W
12/28/2013 M45 MPH CASCADE MT ASOS

45 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [281713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281713
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 SE CASCADE 47.06N 111.39W
12/28/2013 M62 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET

62 MPH WIND GUST AT MILLEGAN.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [281707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281707
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1006 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
12/28/2013 M54 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

54 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR SIEBEN FLATS ON
INTERSTATE 15.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [281705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281705
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1005 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 N HELENA 46.72N 112.00W
12/28/2013 M50 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET

50 MPH WIND GUST NEAR LINCOLN ROAD. TIME OF EVENT IS
ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [281704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281704
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1004 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S GARNEILL 46.74N 109.75W
12/28/2013 M63 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MLV

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KTFX [281700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281700
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INVERNESS 48.55N 110.65W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH HILL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENOSR NEAR INVERNESS.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [281658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281658
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
958 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0256 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.07N 112.33W
12/28/2013 M51 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

51 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR PENDROY.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KBYZ [281652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 281652
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
951 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0847 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE BAKER 46.35N 104.26W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH FALLON MT ASOS


&&

$$

STC

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KUNR [281611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 281611
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
910 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0843 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
12/28/2013 M68 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

OBSERVED AT THE K2WX ASOS


&&

$$

JC

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KGGW [281607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 281607
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
907 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
12/28/2013 M70 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

SUSTAINED 56 WITH GUST TO 70 MPH.

0444 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NNW HELL CREEK RECRE 47.80N 107.02W
12/28/2013 M66 MPH VALLEY MT MESONET

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WIND 37 MPH WITH GUST TO 66 MPH.

0808 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NW MCCLOUD 47.03N 105.80W
12/28/2013 M57 MPH PRAIRIE MT MESONET

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WIND 43 MPH WITH GUST TO 57 MPH.

0815 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WNW GLENDIVE 47.13N 104.80W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH DAWSON MT MESONET

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WIND 45 MPH WITH GUST TO 56 MPH.

0707 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW SAND SPRINGS 47.08N 107.57W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH GARFIELD MT MESONET

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WIND 49 MPH WITH GUST TO 56 MPH.

0750 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WINNETT 47.01N 108.36W
12/28/2013 M55 MPH PETROLEUM MT MESONET

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WIND 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 55 MPH.


&&

$$

MATTM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281606
SWODY1
SPC AC 281604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL/GA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE ABOUT 200MI SSW OF MOB. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MOVE ASHORE THIS
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY RATHER DRY AND STABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. THIS WILL YIELD SOME CONCERN FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
PARCELS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROTATING STORMS. AS THE NEAR SURFACE
AIR MASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES...A LOW POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA. THIS THREAT WILL PRIMARILY EXIST AFTER
ABOUT 22Z.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY.

..HART/MARSH.. 12/28/2013

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KBYZ [281437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 281437
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
737 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW FORSYTH 46.30N 106.70W
12/28/2013 M59 MPH ROSEBUD MT MESONET


&&

$$

STC

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KBYZ [281436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 281436
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
736 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM NON-TSTM WND GST N JUDITH GAP 46.69N 109.75W
12/28/2013 M58 MPH WHEATLAND MT MESONET


&&

$$

STC

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KBYZ [281433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 281433
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
733 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW INGOMAR 46.58N 107.40W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH ROSEBUD MT MESONET


&&

$$

STC

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KBYZ [281428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 281428
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
728 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0704 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 N POMPEYS PILLAR 46.20N 108.00W
12/28/2013 M60 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

STC

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KTFX [281253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281253
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
552 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SSE BRADY 47.94N 111.78W
12/28/2013 M66 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MPJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281236
SWODY1
SPC AC 281233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
AN INITIALLY SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX WILL ACCELERATE
ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO THE
SC PIEDMONT BY 29/12Z BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEANWHILE...A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE INCIPIENT CYCLONE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S IN CENTRAL FL AND THE NE GULF...TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
EXTREME S FL AND THE SE GULF. THIS MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
NWD ACROSS FL TO SE GA AND COASTAL SC BY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL OF WINTER SCENARIOS ACROSS THE SE STATES...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR...WHICH WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY.
STILL...THERE WILL BE A ZONE WITH SOME POTENTIAL OVERLAP OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND NEAR-SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WHERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
HOWEVER...THESE RISKS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF
A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER RELATED TO RAIN FALLING INTO THE CP AIR
MASS NOW PRESENT OVER THE SE STATES.

..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 12/28/2013

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KTFX [281121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281121
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
421 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 23 N HAVRE 48.88N 109.68W
12/28/2013 M40 MPH HILL MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH FROM 100 AM TO 330 AM.


&&

$$

MPJ

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KTFX [281117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281117
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S FORT BELKNAP 48.30N 108.72W
12/28/2013 M63 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 63 MPH.


&&

$$

MPJ

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KTFX [281056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281056
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.66W
12/28/2013 CHOUTEAU MT PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED DAMAGE TO HOUSE SIDING DUE TO STRONG
WINDS. TIME IS ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

MPJ

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KTFX [281031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281031
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
331 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 WNW WHITLASH 48.94N 111.43W
12/28/2013 M40 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH FROM 131 AM TO 246 AM


&&

$$

MPJ

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KTFX [281027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281027
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
327 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0221 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 12 S RUDYARD 48.39N 110.54W
12/28/2013 M40 MPH HILL MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH FROM 1236 AM TO 221 AM.


&&

$$

MPJ

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KTFX [281021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 281021
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
320 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 W HARLEM 48.53N 108.83W
12/28/2013 M45 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 40 MPH FROM 130 AM TO 230 AM.


&&

$$

MPJ

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KTFX [280959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 280959
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
259 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NW JOPLIN 48.70N 110.99W
12/28/2013 M54 MPH LIBERTY MT MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH SINCE 1236 AM MST


&&

$$

MPJ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280952
SWOD48
SPC AC 280951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST EMBEDDED IN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THE MODELS MOVE THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND KEEP THE LARGE-SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/DAY 5. AT THE SFC ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES
IMPEDING MOISTURE RETURN. ON THURSDAY/DAY 6...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/DAY 7...NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE CNTRL STATES WILL PROBABLY KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..BROYLES.. 12/28/2013

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KTFX [280829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 280829
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
129 AM MST SAT DEC 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 E FERDIG 48.78N 111.57W
12/28/2013 M56 MPH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MERCER

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 280828
SWODY3
SPC AC 280826

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY. AT
THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL FL.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH FL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...A COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CNTRL
U.S. THIS WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE RETURN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/28/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280558
SWODY2
SPC AC 280557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FAR NE FL/SE GA/ERN SC AND ERN NC...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WELL-DEVELOPED 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NEWD DURING THE DAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW
IN NRN SC AT 12Z IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS NC WITH THE WARM
SECTOR ESTABLISHED FROM THE COAST OF SC NEWD TO CAPE HATTERAS
NC...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
F. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY SHOW NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM SERN GA
EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS SC. THE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION NEWD
ALONG THE COAST OF NC DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 15Z TO 18Z FROM CHARLESTON SC NEWD TO CAPE
HATTERAS SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 800 J/KG RANGE WITH 50 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH LONG AND LOOPED HODOGRAPHS /0-3 KM SRH OF
400 TO 600 M2/S2/ SHOULD ENABLE SOME STORMS TO ROTATE. DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA.

..BROYLES.. 12/28/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280557
SWODY1
SPC AC 280554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE CURRENT SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION AS A
MULTI-STREAM TROUGH INTENSIFIES FROM CNTRL CANADA AND THE N-CNTRL
CONUS TO OFF BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT THE TRANSITION OF THE SRN PLAINS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
DE-AMPLIFY WHILE ACCELERATING ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO THE
SHELF WATERS OF THE N-CNTRL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING
WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY 29/12Z. BY
THIS TIME...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEWD THROUGH
CNTRL SC INTO E-CNTRL OR NERN NC WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE FL PNHDL...SERN AL...AND W-CNTRL/SWRN
GA.

...FL PNHDL/NRN FL INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...

THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE SRN-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE
LLJ FORMATION OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS FEATURE INCREASING IN BREADTH AND INTENSITY TONIGHT OVER THE
SERN STATES. THIS WILL HASTEN THE POLEWARD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO --AND EVENTUALLY THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-- WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITHIN THE INLAND-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MLCAPE VALUES TO GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500-750 J/KG.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INVOF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ADVANCING
WARM FRONT. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL ALLOW THESE
STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE FL
PNHDL INTO N-CNTRL FL/FAR SRN GA WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING COULD SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. HERE...FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT CLOCKWISE-CURVED STRUCTURE WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/28/2013

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