KFFC [210350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 210350
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1150 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 PM HAIL 2 N HUBER 32.73N 83.56W
05/20/2008 E1.00 INCH TWIGGS GA PUBLIC

WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH

&&

$$

MSR

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KPIH [210339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 210339
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
939 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM TSTM WND GST CHALLIS 44.51N 114.22W
05/20/2008 M51 MPH CUSTER ID ASOS

WIND GUST OF 51 MPH

0706 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ALBION 42.41N 113.58W
05/20/2008 M57 MPH CASSIA ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH GUSTING TO 57

0706 PM TSTM WND GST RUPERT 42.62N 113.67W
05/20/2008 M61 MPH MINIDOKA ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUST OF 61

0706 PM TSTM WND GST RUPERT 42.62N 113.67W
05/20/2008 E55 MPH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

WOND GUST OF 55 MPH

0706 PM TSTM WND GST 15 S MALTA 42.09N 113.37W
05/20/2008 M63 MPH CASSIA ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 WITH GUST OF 63

0706 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 20 SW AMERICAN FALLS 42.58N 113.13W
05/20/2008 M54 MPH CASSIA ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH WITH GUST TO 54 MPH

0706 PM HIGH SUST WINDS BURLEY 42.54N 113.79W
05/20/2008 M59 MPH CASSIA ID ASOS

GUST OF 59 MPH

0706 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 W BURLEY 42.54N 113.95W
05/20/2008 M53 MPH JEROME ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 WITH GUST TO 53

0706 PM TSTM WND GST ABERDEEN 42.94N 112.84W
05/20/2008 M54 MPH BINGHAM ID MESONET

WIND GUST TO 54 MPH

0706 PM TSTM WND GST 20 S ARCO 43.34N 113.30W
05/20/2008 M51 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

WIND GUST TO 51 MPH

0706 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 S BELLEVUE 43.35N 114.26W
05/20/2008 M52 MPH BLAINE ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 WITH GUST OF 52

0706 PM HIGH SUST WINDS FORT HALL 43.01N 112.45W
05/20/2008 M53 MPH BANNOCK ID MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 WITH GUST TO 53

0706 PM HIGH SUST WINDS POCATELLO 42.88N 112.47W
05/20/2008 M56 MPH BANNOCK ID ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 WITH GUST TO 56

&&

$$

DPHELPS

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KCHS [210325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 210325
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1125 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM HAIL SMOAKS 33.09N 80.81W
05/20/2008 E3.00 INCH COLLETON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

MOST HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. A FEW HAILSTONES AS
LARGE AS 3 INCHES.

&&

$$

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KRAH [202003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 202003
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
403 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL 5 NW RANDLEMAN 35.87N 79.86W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH RANDOLPH NC TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER NEAR US HWY
220.

&&

$$

BSD

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KMRX [202002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 202002
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
402 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL VONORE 35.60N 84.23W
05/20/2008 E0.88 INCH MONROE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN VONORE.

&&

$$

FERRELL

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KMRX [202001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 202001
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
401 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 N PIKEVILLE 35.74N 85.20W
05/20/2008 BLEDSOE TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN ON BIG SPRING ROAD AND ONE TREE DOWN ON
MILLER ROAD.

&&

$$

FERRELL

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KCAE [202001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 202001
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL HARLEM 33.41N 82.31W
05/20/2008 0.25 INCH COLUMBIA GA PUBLIC

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0953

ACUS11 KWNS 202000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202000
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-202100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL AND EXTREME NERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202000Z - 202100Z

AIRMASS HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES...JUST
SOUTH OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 90F IN A FEW
AREAS WHICH HAS REMOVED ANY MEANINGFUL INHIBITION EARLIER NOTED.
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN BUT DEEPENING CU
HAS STEADILY DEVELOPED WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
FROM SRN TN...SWWD INTO NERN MS. MORE RECENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INTO NERN AL AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE SWWD INTO A
REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. IF SO...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD CERTAINLY ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34608567 33608522 32928558 33328837 34138864 34648732

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KRAH [201955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 201955
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM HAIL 5 ESE SCHLEY 36.12N 79.00W
05/20/2008 E0.88 INCH ORANGE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF SCHLEY
RD AND ST. MARYS RD. REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KCAE [201955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 201955
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL HARLEM 33.41N 82.32W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH COLUMBIA GA PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL AT HARLEM.

0345 PM HAIL AUGUSTA 33.46N 82.00W
05/20/2008 M1.00 INCH RICHMOND GA BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT OAKLEY PERKAL
AND BELAIRE ST.

&&

$$

DS

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KRAH [201954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 201954
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL 4 S HIGH POINT 35.93N 80.00W
05/20/2008 E0.88 INCH GUILFORD NC TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR SURRETT DR. AND US HWY
311... SOUTH OF HIGH POINT.

&&

$$

BSD

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KAKQ [201954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 201954
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM HAIL 2 W NORFOLK NAS 36.94N 76.34W
05/20/2008 E1.00 INCH XXX XX TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON OCEANVIEW...JUST WEST OF NORFOLK
NAS

&&

$$

MONTEFUSCO

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KGSP [201952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 201952
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL LUCIA 35.38N 81.01W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH GASTON NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LUCIA VFD REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL.

&&

$$

TBENTHALL

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KJAX [201950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 201950
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM WILDFIRE 2 NW WAYNESVILLE 31.25N 81.81W
05/20/2008 BRANTLEY GA EMERGENCY MNGR

BRANTLEY COUNTY EMA OFFICE REPORTED A WILDFIRE NEAR
WAYNESVILLE. FIRE CREWS ARE ATTEMPTING TO PUT IT OUT.
SMOKE PLUME FROM THE FIRE IS READILY SEEN IN RADAR
IMAGERY.

&&

$$

ARS

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KRAH [201947]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 201947
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL 5 SW HIGH POINT 35.92N 80.06W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH DAVIDSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HASTY
SCHOOL ROAD AND HWY 68. REPORTED BY SKYWARN.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KRNK [201946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 201946
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0202 PM TSTM WND DMG STONEVILLE 36.47N 79.91W
05/20/2008 ROCKINGHAM NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ONE TREE DOWN IN STONEVILLE.

0243 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SE REIDSVILLE 36.28N 79.58W
05/20/2008 ROCKINGHAM NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGH ROCK ROAD.

&&

$$

WHP

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KMRX [201946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 201946
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
346 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL ERWIN 36.14N 82.41W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH UNICOI TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ERWIN.

&&

$$

FERRELL

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KGSP [201946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 201946
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 6 E HIGH SHOALS 35.40N 81.10W
05/20/2008 E1.00 INCH GASTON NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HAIL COVERED HIGHWAY AT TOWN OF ALEXIS WITH SIZE UP TO
QUARTERS. REPORTED BY ALEXIS VFD

&&

$$

TBENTHALL

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KAKQ [201946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 201946
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0338 PM HAIL HAMPTON 37.05N 76.29W
05/20/2008 M1.75 INCH CITY OF HAMPTON VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0337 PM HAIL GASTON 36.50N 77.64W
05/20/2008 M0.88 INCH NORTHAMPTON NC EMERGENCY MNGR

0333 PM HAIL 1 E SUFFOLK AIRPORT 36.68N 76.58W
05/20/2008 M1.00 INCH CITY OF SUFFOLK VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0322 PM HAIL GASTON 36.50N 77.64W
05/20/2008 M0.88 INCH NORTHAMPTON NC OTHER FEDERAL

&&

$$

SCHUMANN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201942
SWODY1
SPC AC 201939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN VA...THE
CAROLINAS...TN...GA AND AL...

...SRN VA/CAROLINAS/TN/GA AND AL...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA. AT THE SFC...A 995 MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE FROM SRN MD AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS SRN
VA INTO NRN NC. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WSWWD INTO ACROSS NC INTO WRN SC. A LARGE LINEAR MCS APPEARS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IN SRN NC AND SC WITH
THE LINE MOVING SSEWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM AND NAMKF. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN GA AND MOVE SWD
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERED SFC WINDS
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A FAST ELY STORM MOTION SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. A FEW
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ABOVE 65 KT MAY OCCUR WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN
THE LINE ACROSS ERN NC AND NRN SC. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ALSO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM FROM SRN NC WSWWD
ACROSS CNTRL GA AND CNTRL AL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE FROM WCNTRL MT SSEWD
ACROSS WY INTO CO. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN MT WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. FURTHER
SSEWD...LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED FROM ERN WY SWD ACROSS ECNTRL CO.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY FROM THE
MID 30S TO THE MID 40S F. TEMPS IN THE 70S F WILL CREATE LARGE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS RESULTING IN HIGH STORM BASES. IN SPITE OF THE
DRY AIR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE DRY AIR MAY EVEN ENHANCE THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2008

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 329

WWUS20 KWNS 201940
SEL9
SPC WW 201940
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-210300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ORANGEBURG
SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...WW 328...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY INTERIOR
CAROLINAS AND NRN GA. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND MDT INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED CONCERN FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP
EWD THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.

...HALES

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KHUN [201940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 201940
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL 5 N NEW MARKET 34.98N 86.41W
05/20/2008 E0.25 INCH MADISON AL PUBLIC

PEA SIZED HAIL BETWEEN PLEVNA AND ROSEBORO

&&

$$

DL

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KCAE [201938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 201938
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL THOMSON 33.47N 82.50W
05/20/2008 E0.88 INCH MCDUFFIE GA PUBLIC

GRAPE SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THOMSON, GA.

&&

$$

DS

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KMRX [201937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 201937
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 4 SW GREENEVILLE 36.12N 82.87W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH GREENE TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR GREENVILLE.

&&

$$

FERRELL

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KAKQ [201937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 201937
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM TSTM WND DMG SEDLEY 36.77N 76.98W
05/20/2008 SOUTHAMPTON VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN TOWN OF SEDLEY

0323 PM HAIL HAMPTON 37.05N 76.29W
05/20/2008 E0.50 INCH CITY OF HAMPTON VA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO MARBLE HAIL COVERING THE ROADWAY IN HAMPTON

&&

$$

MONTEFUSCO

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KRAH [201934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 201934
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
334 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL ROANOKE RAPIDS 36.45N 77.65W
05/20/2008 E1.00 INCH HALIFAX NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ROANOKE
RAPIDS.

&&

$$

BSD

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KHUN [201931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHUN 201931
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HAIL ELORA 35.01N 86.36W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN TN POST OFFICE

PENNY SIZE HAIL FALLING AT THE ELORA POST OFFICE

&&

$$

DL

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KHUN [201931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 201931
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HAIL ELORA 35.01N 86.36W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN TN POST OFFICE

PENNY SIZE HAIL FALLING AT THE ELORA POST OFFIEC

&&

$$

DL

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KRAH [201930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 201930
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 2 NNE WELCOME 35.94N 80.23W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH DAVIDSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 52
AND HWY 8.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KGSP [201930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 201930
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM HAIL CHERRYVILLE 35.38N 81.38W
05/20/2008 E0.50 INCH GASTON NC AMATEUR RADIO

ONE-HALF INCH HAIL BETWEEN CHERRYVILLE AND CROUSE

&&

$$

RWH

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KRAH [201930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 201930
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N HENDERSON 36.37N 78.42W
05/20/2008 VANCE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN NORTHERN VANCE COUNTY. SEVERAL
TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 39 NORTH OF HENDERSON. ONE TREES IS
ON A VEHICLE TRAPPING ITS OCCUPANTS. TREES ALSO DOWN ON
GARNETT ST.

&&

$$

BSD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0952

ACUS11 KWNS 201924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201923
NCZ000-SCZ000-202000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 201923Z - 202000Z

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

32978139 35697743 34747660 32517983

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KLCH [201922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 201922
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 AM TSTM WND DMG BROOKELAND 31.13N 93.99W
05/15/2008 JASPER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [201919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 201919
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM TORNADO 3 SE BUNA 30.41N 93.93W
05/15/2008 JASPER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

EF0 TORNADO BLEW A ROOF OFF A BARN AND DOWNED TREES ALONG
CAILLIER LOOP. PATH LENGTH OF 1/4 MILE AND PATH WIDTH OF
25 YARDS.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 328

WWUS20 KWNS 201859
SEL8
SPC WW 201859
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-210200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ROME GEORGIA TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ALONG AND S OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN TN. WITH THE AIR MASS
NOW MDTLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT
OF SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL DEVELOP.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.

...HALES

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KRAH [201856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 201856
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL 2 SE BETHEL HILL 36.48N 78.86W
05/20/2008 E0.88 INCH PERSON NC PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT MAYO MARINA...2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BETHEL HILL. PUBLIC REPORT.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KRNK [201833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 201833
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0221 PM TSTM WND DMG MILTON 36.54N 79.21W
05/20/2008 CASWELL NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN IN MILTON.

&&

$$

WHP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0951

ACUS11 KWNS 201823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201823
SCZ000-GAZ000-201930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA TO CENTRAL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201823Z - 201930Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z...

BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF FROM CNTRL
GA...EWD INTO SC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ALREADY UNCAPPED AIRMASS
ONLY NEEDS WEAK CONVERGENCE FOR STORM INITIATION. 18Z SOUNDING FROM
FFC SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE
WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. LATEST THINKING IS FESTERING CU FIELD ACROSS GA WILL
BECOME A PRIMARY REGION FOR DEVELOPING/EXPANDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY WOULD THEN SPREAD SEWD TOWARD SERN
GA/COASTAL SC. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33738513 33998249 34398060 33917987 33218021 32638146
32698472

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KRNK [201816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 201816
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
216 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HAIL 4 E RIDGEWAY 36.58N 79.79W
05/20/2008 E0.75 INCH HENRY VA PUBLIC

0155 PM HAIL RIDGEWAY 36.58N 79.87W
05/20/2008 E0.88 INCH HENRY VA PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL LASTED FROM 155 PM UNTIL 201 PM.

0206 PM HAIL 3 NNW STONEVILLE 36.51N 79.93W
05/20/2008 E0.88 INCH ROCKINGHAM NC AMATEUR RADIO

NICKEL SIZED HAIL OCCURRED AT THE INTERSECTION OF U.S.
220 AND SMITH ROAD.

&&

$$

WHP

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201728
SWODY2
SPC AC 201726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY...FAR
WRN NEB AND NE CO...

...HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS
LIKELY FROM WRN NEB EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NE CO AND ERN WY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM...A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS SERN WY AND ERN CO
ON WEDNESDAY. SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE LOW AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN WY WHERE CAPPING
SHOULD NOT BE PROBLEMATIC. THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO FORM AND THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN STRONG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ERN CO...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR AND NORTH OF
CHEYENNE WY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR
FROM ABOUT 25 KTS AT 18Z TO ABOUT 50 KTS AT 03Z. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND COMBINED
WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX...
A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
ALONG THE DRYLINE...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR...INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL IF A STORM CAN INITIATE AND PERSIST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED FROM SRN MS EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN AL AND SRN GA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. SFC HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS FAR SRN GA AND NRN FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL
WLY FLOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FARTHER WEST ACROSS SRN AL AND SRN MS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2008

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KLCH [201714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 201714
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1214 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 AM TSTM WND GST 6 S LAKE CHARLES 30.12N 93.20W
05/15/2008 M52 MPH CALCASIEU LA MESONET

MEASURED AT LAKE CHARLES LSU AG CENTER.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 327

WWUS20 KWNS 201711
SEL7
SPC WW 201711
NCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-210000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. AIRMASS IS BECOMING
MDTLY UNSTABLE AS HEATING WEAKENS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION E OF SRN
APPALACHIANS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM
APPALACHIANS AND FORM IN TO SHORT LINES/BOWS WITH PRIMARILY THREAT
OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS MOVE INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR SERN VA/NERN NC DURING AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26045.

...HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0950

ACUS11 KWNS 201634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201634
VAZ000-NCZ000-201730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201634Z - 201730Z

...WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY 18Z...

SHOWERS ARE DEEPENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA FROM FLOYD COUNTY
TO SMYTH COUNTY WHERE LIGHTNING IS NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS ARE NOW SPREADING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LATEST
DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES SFC-3KM VALUES ARE AOA 7 C/KM...INDICATIVE
OF INCREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS THIS REGION. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE 70S UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ROBUST AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WLY VERTICAL SHEAR IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT INITIAL STORM
MODE MAY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES....ALTHOUGH BOW-TYPE
ECHOES COULD EVOLVE WHICH WOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

36978035 37367886 38107751 37657631 36337719 36418047

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KLCH [201634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 201634
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 AM TORNADO 7 SSE DERIDDER 30.75N 93.25W
05/15/2008 F0 BEAUREGARD LA NWS STORM SURVEY

EF0 TORNADO BLEW DOWN AND UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES ALONG
HIGHWAY 171 SOUTH OF DERIDDER. PATH LENGTH OF 1/2 MILE
AND PATH WIDTH OF 25 YARDS.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201629
SWODY1
SPC AC 201626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN VA/CAROLINAS SWWD
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY......

...MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES...
DEEP POLAR UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SERN CANADA WITH A STRONG CYCLONIC
JET FROM OH VALLEY TO OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EMBEDDED S/W
TROUGH RACES EWD ACROSS VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
DELMARVA AREA THIS MORNING MOVES OFFSHORE WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
WSWWD INTO TN VALLEY MOVING SEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND THEN
EXTENDING WWD THRU GULF STATES.

A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF
FRONT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COUPLED WITH A MOISTURE PLUME WITH
PW/S IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE HEATING DISSIPATES THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

WITH THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES E OF
APPALACHIANS...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SRN/SERN VA/NRN NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PROGRESSIVELY SWD THRU
THE CAROLINAS. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG S OF
FRONT...AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAVE
INCREASED THE WIND DAMAGE CONCERN INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN AREA OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY.

TORNADOS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
IN THE LINEAR SEGMENTS AND ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE WARM SECTOR.

WITH HEATING THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING WWD TO S OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL GA INTO AL. AGAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG SUPPORTS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...HOWEVER
SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS GIVEN THE WEAKER DEEP LAYER
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

...HIGH PLAINS...
HERE TOO...A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN CAPPED...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE ENHANCED ZONES OF
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME ANY EXISTING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING
WITH HEIGHT WITH 30-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT SOME
MIDLEVEL ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
ADVERTISED IMPRESSIVE DIGGING OF TROUGH INTO THE WRN U.S. BEGINS
TODAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS WA/OR INTO WRN MT/ID LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

A STEEP LAPSE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE FRONT TODAY WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT /PW VALUES AOA .5 INCH/ TO SUPPORT WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
REGION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS
DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..HALES/LEVIT.. 05/20/2008

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KRLX [201325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 201325
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
919 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 AM HAIL SUMMERSVILLE 38.35N 80.86W
05/20/2008 U0.50 INCH NICHOLAS WV PUBLIC

EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
901 AM 05/20/2008 AND 916 AM 05/20/2008

&&

$$

NNNN

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KABR [201310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201310
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ONIDA 44.70N 100.07W
05/19/2008 M60 MPH SULLY SD PUBLIC

AIRPORT MANAGER CALLED IN REPORT.

&&

$$

KGILLE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN VA/CAROLINAS SWWD
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...TIDEWATER AREA SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH EWD EXTENSION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE /EML/ PLUME
ORIGINATING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000-2000 J/KG. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FFC/CHS/MHX ALL INDICATE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT
MAY BE A BIT GREATER THAN EARLIER FORECAST FROM SERN NC ACROSS NRN
GA WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR.

CLUSTERS OF WEAK...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD THIS MORNING
IN CONCERT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.
THEREAFTER...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING AND TRAILING
FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO PASSING MIDLEVEL WAVE
ALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN VA/ERN NC SWWD INTO NRN GA/AL AND PERHAPS
ERN MS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN LARGELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 40-50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO MORE LINEAR...POSSIBLY BOWING
STRUCTURES AS MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...INCLUDING SOME VERY
LARGE HAIL EVENTS GIVEN LARGE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD
OF ROTATING STORMS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVERS WILL POSE A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST OVER
THE REGION. SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING
THE EVENING...WHILE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING WWD
TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A STEEP LAPSE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE FRONT TODAY WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT /PW VALUES AOA .5 INCH/ TO SUPPORT WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
REGION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS
DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS...
HERE TOO...A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN CAPPED...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE ENHANCED ZONES OF
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME ANY EXISTING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING
WITH HEIGHT WITH 30-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT SOME
MIDLEVEL ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..EVANS/MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200824
SWOD48
SPC AC 200823

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN TIMING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE...WITH THE FASTER ECMWF DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT SEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY 5 PERIOD /SATURDAY MAY
25/. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER -- AND ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER --
WITH THIS FRONT.

MODELS AGREE IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME FRAME...HOWEVER...THAT A VERY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ALONG ERN FRINGES OF THE
LARGE-SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT DAY 4 SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...FROM WRN OK AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION NWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. MODELS -- PARTICULARLY
THE ECMWF -- THEN SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXPAND A
BIT FURTHER E INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 5.

WHILE A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO DAY 6 AND BEYOND AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IMPINGES ON
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH RESPECT
TO TIMING OF THE FRONT PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY AREAS BEYOND
DAY 5 ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/20/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200733
SWODY3
SPC AC 200730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEB/KS SWD
ACROSS PARTS OF OK/N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE ERN LOW/TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH
TIME TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN WRN U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN DURING THE DAY...WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY.

...WRN AND CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/WRN N TX...
WARM SECTOR -- E OF A HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND S OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD ACROSS KS DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY ON SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW.
COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT WARM SECTOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
NEB...NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT/E OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THEN
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OR CENTRAL KS AND INTO
OK. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE
STRONGER CAPPING SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.

ALONG WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...FLOW VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 KT -- AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS NNEWD INTO THE REGION --
WILL RESULT IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MOST FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD EXIST NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHERE ESELYS AT LOW-LEVELS RESULT IN LARGE/LOOPING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
NEAR AND JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NWD OVERNIGHT
TO AREAS N OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES.

...WRN GULF COAST REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...AS A VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPICTED BY BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS MOVES NEWD ACROSS COASTAL TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF MODEST/ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
ENHANCING AVAILABLE SHEAR AND MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...THUS WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/20/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200559
SWODY2
SPC AC 200557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY/SWRN
SD/THE NEB PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SUBSEQUENTLY RESULTING IN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS A DOWNSTREAM VORTEX
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NERN U.S./ERN CANADA.

AS THE WRN TROUGH DIGS SEWD...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN/SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO ERN CO WITH TIME. ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE WEST...A SECOND BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THIS
LOW SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST OVER NRN CO...ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
E/NE OF THE LOW MAY RESULT IN AMPLE UPSLOPE-INDUCED UVV FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE NWD TOWARD MT...AND
CAPPING SHOULD HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A SMALL ZONE OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEARS TO
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY AND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD TO
WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA.

...NEB AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD EWD INTO -- OR DEVELOP OVER --
PORTIONS OF NEB AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS...MOISTENING
ABOVE A LOWER-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN AMPLE CAPE FOR A FEW
STRONGER CELLS -- AND THUS A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION...INVOF LINGERING/W-E COLD FRONT. WHILE STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY-STRONG FLOW
ALOFT SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- AND THUS A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.

..GOSS.. 05/20/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200542
SWODY1
SPC AC 200539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN VA AND THE CAROLINAS
WWD INTO AL...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE DAY ONE PERIOD. IN THE E...SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE
AROUND DEEP VORTEX CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC...THE MOST NOTABLE
OF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY ENEWD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE W...SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
FAR ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...SUPPORTING AN
AMPLIFICATION TO LARGER-SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VALLEY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WV EWD TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON. TRAILING FOLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH SRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY
MOVING MORE SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. FINALLY...A LEE TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

...TIDEWATER AREA SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATION AND GOES IPW SOUNDER DATA INDICATE THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH EWD EXTENSION OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE /EML/ PLUME ORIGINATING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF WV/VA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EWD THIS MORNING IN CONCERT WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WITH SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THEREAFTER...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING AND
TRAILING FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO PASSING
MIDLEVEL WAVE ALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN VA/ERN NC SWWD INTO NRN GA
AND PERHAPS AL.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 40-50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO MORE LINEAR...POSSIBLY BOWING
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
DEVELOP OVER SERN VA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

A STEEP LAPSE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE FRONT TODAY WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT /PW VALUES AOA .5 INCH/ TO SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THE FRONT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS
DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS...

HERE TOO...A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN CAPPED...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE ENHANCED ZONES OF
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME ANY EXISTING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING
WITH HEIGHT WITH 30-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT SOME
MIDLEVEL ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2008

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