SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201634
VAZ000-NCZ000-201730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201634Z - 201730Z
...WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY 18Z...
SHOWERS ARE DEEPENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA FROM FLOYD COUNTY
TO SMYTH COUNTY WHERE LIGHTNING IS NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS ARE NOW SPREADING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LATEST
DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES SFC-3KM VALUES ARE AOA 7 C/KM...INDICATIVE
OF INCREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS THIS REGION. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE 70S UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ROBUST AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WLY VERTICAL SHEAR IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT INITIAL STORM
MODE MAY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES....ALTHOUGH BOW-TYPE
ECHOES COULD EVOLVE WHICH WOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
..DARROW.. 05/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
36978035 37367886 38107751 37657631 36337719 36418047
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