NWUS51 KCLE 230201
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1001 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0405 PM TSTM WND DMG GENEVA 41.80N 80.95W
09/22/2012 ASHTABULA OH PUBLIC
A FEW TREES DOWN.
0420 PM HAIL JEFFERSON 41.74N 80.77W
09/22/2012 E0.75 INCH ASHTABULA OH PUBLIC
0420 PM HAIL AUSTINBURG 41.77N 80.85W
09/22/2012 E1.00 INCH ASHTABULA OH PUBLIC
0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N SOUTH RUSSELL 41.46N 81.33W
09/22/2012 GEAUGA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
BETWEEN RUSSELL AND NEWBURY...MAINLY ON MUSIC STREET SOME
LARGE LIMBS DOWN...WIRES DOWN AND DEBRIS IN THE ROAD.
TELEPHONE POLE LEANING. A TREE DOWN ON SNOW STREET IN
NEWBURY.
0427 PM HAIL JEFFERSON 41.74N 80.77W
09/22/2012 E1.00 INCH ASHTABULA OH NWS EMPLOYEE
0427 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW JEFFERSON 41.76N 80.80W
09/22/2012 ASHTABULA OH PUBLIC
A FEW LARGE LIMBS DOWN.
0430 PM HAIL JEFFERSON 41.74N 80.77W
09/22/2012 E1.00 INCH ASHTABULA OH PUBLIC
0445 PM HAIL PIERPONT 41.75N 80.57W
09/22/2012 E0.75 INCH ASHTABULA OH PUBLIC
0500 PM HAIL SPRINGBORO 41.80N 80.37W
09/22/2012 E1.00 INCH CRAWFORD PA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
HAIL LASTED 5 MINUTES.
0512 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 W KINSMAN 41.45N 80.74W
09/22/2012 TRUMBULL OH 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD IN GREENE TOWNSHIP.
0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W KINSMAN 41.45N 80.68W
09/22/2012 TRUMBULL OH 911 CALL CENTER
A BARN DESTROYED. FOUR TO FIVE TELEPOHONE POLES KNOCKED
DOWN AND TWO TREES DOWN AROUND RTE 193 AND RTE 87.
0532 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E JEFFERSON 41.74N 80.73W
09/22/2012 ASHTABULA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREE DOWN IN JEFFERSON TOWNSHIP.
0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E JEFFERSON 41.74N 80.67W
09/22/2012 ASHTABULA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREE DOWN IN DENMARK TOWNSHIP.
0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W MEADVILLE 41.65N 80.19W
09/22/2012 CRAWFORD PA 911 CALL CENTER
TWO TREES DOWN.
0543 PM TSTM WND DMG WARREN 41.24N 80.82W
09/22/2012 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A FEW TREES DOWN.
0552 PM HAIL CONNEAUT LAKE 41.62N 80.30W
09/22/2012 E0.75 INCH CRAWFORD PA AMATEUR RADIO
PEA TO PENNY SIZE.
0615 PM HAIL COCHRANTON 41.52N 80.05W
09/22/2012 E0.75 INCH CRAWFORD PA 911 CALL CENTER
&&
$$
KIELTYKA
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Saturday, September 22, 2012
KBUF [221400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KBUF 221400
LSRBUF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1000 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0756 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ADAMS 43.81N 76.02W
09/22/2012 JEFFERSON NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES AND WIRES DOWN
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200336
$$
JAM
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LSRBUF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1000 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0756 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ADAMS 43.81N 76.02W
09/22/2012 JEFFERSON NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES AND WIRES DOWN
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200336
$$
JAM
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KILN [221356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 221356
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0842 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST MANCHESTER 39.90N 84.63W
09/21/2012 PREBLE OH PUBLIC
THREE TREES DAMAGED A VEHICLE...CAR PORT...FENCE...AND
TWO HOUSES.
1020 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW POWELL 40.19N 83.08W
09/21/2012 DELAWARE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE WAS DOWNED IN LIBERTY TOWNSHIP DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.
1023 PM TSTM WND DMG WESTERVILLE 40.12N 82.92W
09/21/2012 FRANKLIN OH PUBLIC
TREE LIMBS DOWN.
1033 PM TSTM WND DMG SSW CENTER VILLAGE 40.16N 82.81W
09/21/2012 DELAWARE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE WAS DOWNED DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
1038 PM TSTM WND DMG HARTFORD 40.24N 82.69W
09/21/2012 LICKING OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE FELL DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS ONTO POWER LINES
AND CAUGHT FIRE.
&&
$$
KURZ
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0842 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST MANCHESTER 39.90N 84.63W
09/21/2012 PREBLE OH PUBLIC
THREE TREES DAMAGED A VEHICLE...CAR PORT...FENCE...AND
TWO HOUSES.
1020 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW POWELL 40.19N 83.08W
09/21/2012 DELAWARE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE WAS DOWNED IN LIBERTY TOWNSHIP DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.
1023 PM TSTM WND DMG WESTERVILLE 40.12N 82.92W
09/21/2012 FRANKLIN OH PUBLIC
TREE LIMBS DOWN.
1033 PM TSTM WND DMG SSW CENTER VILLAGE 40.16N 82.81W
09/21/2012 DELAWARE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE WAS DOWNED DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
1038 PM TSTM WND DMG HARTFORD 40.24N 82.69W
09/21/2012 LICKING OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE FELL DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS ONTO POWER LINES
AND CAUGHT FIRE.
&&
$$
KURZ
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KGRR [221342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 221342
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
942 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0941 AM HAIL PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W
09/22/2012 E0.25 INCH VAN BUREN MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
DUKE
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
942 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0941 AM HAIL PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W
09/22/2012 E0.25 INCH VAN BUREN MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
DUKE
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KPBZ [221335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 221335
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 AM TSTM WND DMG WINONA 40.83N 80.90W
09/22/2012 COLUMBIANA OH FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
TREES REPORTED DOWN AND DAMAGE TO SWIMMING POOL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200995
$$
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 AM TSTM WND DMG WINONA 40.83N 80.90W
09/22/2012 COLUMBIANA OH FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
TREES REPORTED DOWN AND DAMAGE TO SWIMMING POOL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200995
$$
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KGRR [221326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 221326
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
926 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM FUNNEL CLOUD SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.28W
09/22/2012 VAN BUREN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
BETWEEN 855 AM AND 905 AM. A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED
NEAR MILE MARKER 24 ON INTERSTATE 196. NO DAMAGE
REPORTED.
&&
$$
DUKE
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
926 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM FUNNEL CLOUD SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.28W
09/22/2012 VAN BUREN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR SOUTH HAVEN
BETWEEN 855 AM AND 905 AM. A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED
NEAR MILE MARKER 24 ON INTERSTATE 196. NO DAMAGE
REPORTED.
&&
$$
DUKE
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KIND [221313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 221313
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0725 PM HAIL 2 NW BROWNSBURG 39.86N 86.42W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND OTHER REPORTS IN THE
AREA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200804
$$
ELB
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0725 PM HAIL 2 NW BROWNSBURG 39.86N 86.42W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND OTHER REPORTS IN THE
AREA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200804
$$
ELB
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KBUF [221310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KBUF 221310
LSRBUF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW CLYDE 43.07N 76.91W
09/22/2012 WAYNE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF A TREE DOWN
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200335
$$
JAM
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LSRBUF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW CLYDE 43.07N 76.91W
09/22/2012 WAYNE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF A TREE DOWN
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200335
$$
JAM
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KMFL [221304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMFL 221304
LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
904 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 AM FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
09/22/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
MIAMI BEACH POLICE REPORTED FLOODING ALONG CHASE AVENUE
FROM ARTHUR GODFREY ROAD/WEST 41ST STREET TO ALTON ROAD.
THE ROAD WAS COMPLETELY INDUNDATED.
0845 AM FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
09/22/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
MIAMI BEACH POLICE REPORTED FLOODING ALONG NORTH BAY ROAD
BETWEEN ALTON ROAD AND 20TH STREET.
0845 AM FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
09/22/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
MIAMI BEACH POLICE REPORTED THAT 20TH STREET WEST OF
ALTON ROAD WAS FLOODED...WITH WATER NEAR THE HOOD OF
VEHICLES.
&&
$$
ROSS
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LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
904 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 AM FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
09/22/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
MIAMI BEACH POLICE REPORTED FLOODING ALONG CHASE AVENUE
FROM ARTHUR GODFREY ROAD/WEST 41ST STREET TO ALTON ROAD.
THE ROAD WAS COMPLETELY INDUNDATED.
0845 AM FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
09/22/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
MIAMI BEACH POLICE REPORTED FLOODING ALONG NORTH BAY ROAD
BETWEEN ALTON ROAD AND 20TH STREET.
0845 AM FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
09/22/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
MIAMI BEACH POLICE REPORTED THAT 20TH STREET WEST OF
ALTON ROAD WAS FLOODED...WITH WATER NEAR THE HOOD OF
VEHICLES.
&&
$$
ROSS
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KILN [221259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 221259
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
859 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0849 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S PITSBURG 39.93N 84.49W
09/21/2012 DARKE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 722.
&&
$$
ASL
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
859 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0849 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S PITSBURG 39.93N 84.49W
09/21/2012 DARKE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 722.
&&
$$
ASL
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KBUF [221258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KBUF 221258
LSRBUF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
857 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0751 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S HERRICK GROVE 44.04N 76.19W
09/22/2012 M47 MPH LOZ045 NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200334
$$
JAM
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LSRBUF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
857 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0751 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S HERRICK GROVE 44.04N 76.19W
09/22/2012 M47 MPH LOZ045 NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1200334
$$
JAM
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KILN [221257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 221257
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
857 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S NEW MADISON 39.94N 84.71W
09/21/2012 DARKE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A LARGE CHICKEN BARN WAS BLOWN OVER. TREES AND POWER
LINES WERE DOWNED.
&&
$$
ASL
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
857 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S NEW MADISON 39.94N 84.71W
09/21/2012 DARKE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
A LARGE CHICKEN BARN WAS BLOWN OVER. TREES AND POWER
LINES WERE DOWNED.
&&
$$
ASL
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 221247
SWODY1
SPC AC 221245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NORTH TO
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY WILL BE COMPRISED OF A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST AND
ROCKIES...A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAKING INROADS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COAST...AND A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. LIFT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FROM THE CASCADES
ESEWD TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS OVER
THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AND NON-SUPPORTIVE OF MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS.
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
WITHIN A BELT OF PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THESES
AREAS...500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE APPROACHING 100KT AND MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/VORT MAXIMA
MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM. AT LEAST TWO OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE TSTM POTENTIAL FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
...MID ATLANTIC TO NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
A LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH FRIDAY/S SEVERE TSTMS
OVER THE MIDWEST HAS ROTATED THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH AND WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO QB THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY/PA TO THE OH
VALLEY. THE BREAK IN STRONGER DPVA AND ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...FROM LM TO OH...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...RENEWED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN
THE FRONTAL ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL.
LOW LEVEL MASS TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO QB HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NARROW PLUME OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 55 TO LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NY SWD TO VA. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE LEADING IMPULSE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INSOLATION THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE RISING TO ABOUT 250-500 J/KG IN
NRN AREAS...AND REACHING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT MAY ACT
TO INHIBIT BUOYANCY AND PARCEL ACCELERATIONS...AT LEAST DURING
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PHASE. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...A FORCED
BROKEN SQUALL LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE AS THE
COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS EAST FROM CNTRL NY/PA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAKER FORCING WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION SUGGESTS THAT PROSPECTS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION MAY BE LESS IN THESE AREAS...DESPITE STRONGER
INSTABILITY.
AS THE CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION INCREASES
FROM DELMARVA NORTH TO NY/VT...MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTING SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWPS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO. IN THE NORTH...ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OFF MOST OF THE EAST COAST...SOUTH TO DELMARVA...BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
...LOWER MI ACROSS OH/WRN PA...
DESPITE A COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND PROXIMITY OF
WARMER LAKE WATERS...COULD LEND SUPPORT TO A CLUSTER OF MORE
VIGOROUS STORMS AS LIFT WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX SPREADS ESEWD
ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TEMPER A MORE SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT
BUT A FEW CELLS COULD STILL PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..CARBIN/BOTHWELL.. 09/22/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 221245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NORTH TO
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY WILL BE COMPRISED OF A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST AND
ROCKIES...A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAKING INROADS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COAST...AND A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. LIFT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FROM THE CASCADES
ESEWD TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS OVER
THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AND NON-SUPPORTIVE OF MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS.
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
WITHIN A BELT OF PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THESES
AREAS...500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE APPROACHING 100KT AND MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/VORT MAXIMA
MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM. AT LEAST TWO OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE TSTM POTENTIAL FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
...MID ATLANTIC TO NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
A LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH FRIDAY/S SEVERE TSTMS
OVER THE MIDWEST HAS ROTATED THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH AND WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO QB THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY/PA TO THE OH
VALLEY. THE BREAK IN STRONGER DPVA AND ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH...FROM LM TO OH...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...RENEWED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN
THE FRONTAL ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL.
LOW LEVEL MASS TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO QB HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NARROW PLUME OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 55 TO LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NY SWD TO VA. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE LEADING IMPULSE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INSOLATION THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE RISING TO ABOUT 250-500 J/KG IN
NRN AREAS...AND REACHING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH. PRE-FRONTAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT MAY ACT
TO INHIBIT BUOYANCY AND PARCEL ACCELERATIONS...AT LEAST DURING
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PHASE. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...A FORCED
BROKEN SQUALL LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE AS THE
COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS EAST FROM CNTRL NY/PA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAKER FORCING WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION SUGGESTS THAT PROSPECTS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION MAY BE LESS IN THESE AREAS...DESPITE STRONGER
INSTABILITY.
AS THE CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION INCREASES
FROM DELMARVA NORTH TO NY/VT...MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTING SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWPS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO. IN THE NORTH...ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET WHILE FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OFF MOST OF THE EAST COAST...SOUTH TO DELMARVA...BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
...LOWER MI ACROSS OH/WRN PA...
DESPITE A COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND PROXIMITY OF
WARMER LAKE WATERS...COULD LEND SUPPORT TO A CLUSTER OF MORE
VIGOROUS STORMS AS LIFT WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX SPREADS ESEWD
ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TEMPER A MORE SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT
BUT A FEW CELLS COULD STILL PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..CARBIN/BOTHWELL.. 09/22/2012
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KPBZ [221244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 221244
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
844 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 AM TSTM WND DMG AUGUSTA 40.69N 81.02W
09/22/2012 CARROLL OH 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN NEAR AUGUSTA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200994
$$
RSMITH
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
844 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 AM TSTM WND DMG AUGUSTA 40.69N 81.02W
09/22/2012 CARROLL OH 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN NEAR AUGUSTA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200994
$$
RSMITH
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KPBZ [221243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 221243
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
842 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0113 AM TSTM WND DMG SE AUGUSTA 40.69N 81.02W
09/22/2012 CARROLL OH 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN NEAR MECHANICSTOWN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200993
$$
RSMITH
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
842 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0113 AM TSTM WND DMG SE AUGUSTA 40.69N 81.02W
09/22/2012 CARROLL OH 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN NEAR MECHANICSTOWN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1200993
$$
RSMITH
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KDLH [221234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 221234
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
734 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0647 AM SNOW 5 E CANYON 47.04N 92.36W
09/22/2012 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
DELAYED REPORT. SNOWFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AT LAKE NICHOLS.
&&
$$
KK
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
734 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0647 AM SNOW 5 E CANYON 47.04N 92.36W
09/22/2012 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
DELAYED REPORT. SNOWFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AT LAKE NICHOLS.
&&
$$
KK
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KIND [221225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 221225
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE ULEN 40.07N 86.44W
09/21/2012 BOONE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
2FT DIAMETER HEALTHY TREE BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR AND SPOTTER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200803
$$
ELB
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE ULEN 40.07N 86.44W
09/21/2012 BOONE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
2FT DIAMETER HEALTHY TREE BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR AND SPOTTER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200803
$$
ELB
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KMKX [221153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMKX 221153
LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
653 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0643 AM HAIL MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH MILWAUKEE WI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
&&
$$
HENTZ
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LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
653 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0643 AM HAIL MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH MILWAUKEE WI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
&&
$$
HENTZ
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KMKX [221117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMKX 221117
LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
617 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0559 AM HAIL BIG BEND 42.88N 88.20W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH WAUKESHA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
HENTZ
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LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
617 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0559 AM HAIL BIG BEND 42.88N 88.20W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH WAUKESHA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
HENTZ
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KGRR [221039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KGRR 221039
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
639 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE CITY BEACH IN MUSKEGON JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
DUKE
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
639 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE CITY BEACH IN MUSKEGON JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
DUKE
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KMKX [221036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMKX 221036
LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
536 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0534 AM HAIL NWS SULLIVAN/MILWAUKEE 42.97N 88.55W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH JEFFERSON WI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
&&
$$
HENTZ
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LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
536 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0534 AM HAIL NWS SULLIVAN/MILWAUKEE 42.97N 88.55W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH JEFFERSON WI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
&&
$$
HENTZ
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KGRR [221019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 221019
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0610 AM HAIL 2 NW KALAMAZOO 42.31N 85.62W
09/22/2012 E0.25 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER
VERY SMALL HAIL REPORTED TO BE LESS THAN PEA SIZE.
&&
$$
DUKE
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0610 AM HAIL 2 NW KALAMAZOO 42.31N 85.62W
09/22/2012 E0.25 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER
VERY SMALL HAIL REPORTED TO BE LESS THAN PEA SIZE.
&&
$$
DUKE
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KMKX [220955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMKX 220955
LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
454 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 AM HAIL 1 E MADISON TRUAX AIRPO 43.14N 89.31W
09/22/2012 E0.25 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
HENTZ
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LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
454 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 AM HAIL 1 E MADISON TRUAX AIRPO 43.14N 89.31W
09/22/2012 E0.25 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
HENTZ
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KMKX [220942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMKX 220942
LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
442 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 AM HAIL 1 S MADISON CAPITOL SQU 43.07N 89.38W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
0439 AM HAIL MADISON TRUAX AIRPORT 43.14N 89.33W
09/22/2012 M0.50 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL COVERING GROUND.
&&
$$
HENTZ
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LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
442 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 AM HAIL 1 S MADISON CAPITOL SQU 43.07N 89.38W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
0439 AM HAIL MADISON TRUAX AIRPORT 43.14N 89.33W
09/22/2012 M0.50 INCH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL COVERING GROUND.
&&
$$
HENTZ
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KDLH [220930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 220930
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM SNOW ALBORN 46.97N 92.58W
09/22/2012 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GSF
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM SNOW ALBORN 46.97N 92.58W
09/22/2012 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GSF
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KMKX [220928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMKX 220928
LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
428 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM HAIL PRAIRIE DU SAC 43.29N 89.73W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH SAUK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
HENTZ
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LSRMKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
428 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM HAIL PRAIRIE DU SAC 43.29N 89.73W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH SAUK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
HENTZ
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 220848
SWOD48
SPC AC 220847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LESS CONSISTENCY IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THIS
FORECAST...WITH A BREAKDOWN IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING DAY 5 /WED. 9-26/
AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH DAY 6 /THU. 9-27/ AND BEYOND.
STILL HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE/WEAK FLOW
FIELD ALOFT OVER THE CONUS...WHICH GENERALLY SUPPORTS LIKELIHOOD FOR
AN ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/22/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 220847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LESS CONSISTENCY IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THIS
FORECAST...WITH A BREAKDOWN IN AGREEMENT BEGINNING DAY 5 /WED. 9-26/
AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH DAY 6 /THU. 9-27/ AND BEYOND.
STILL HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE/WEAK FLOW
FIELD ALOFT OVER THE CONUS...WHICH GENERALLY SUPPORTS LIKELIHOOD FOR
AN ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/22/2012
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KKEY [220801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 220801
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0309 AM MARINE TSTM WIND GRASSY KEY 24.76N 80.96W
09/22/2012 M41 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET
THE WIND ALERT STATION IN MARATHON...AT VALHALLA BEACH
RESORT...MEASURED A 36 KNOT WIND GUST DURING A RECENT
THUNDERSTORM.
&&
$$
CLR
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0309 AM MARINE TSTM WIND GRASSY KEY 24.76N 80.96W
09/22/2012 M41 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET
THE WIND ALERT STATION IN MARATHON...AT VALHALLA BEACH
RESORT...MEASURED A 36 KNOT WIND GUST DURING A RECENT
THUNDERSTORM.
&&
$$
CLR
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KILX [220754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KILX 220754
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
253 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL E SAN JOSE 40.31N 89.60W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH MASON IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SAN JOSE FIRE
CHIEF...HAIL COVERING THE GROUND LIKE SNOW...FROM 0.5 TO
1 INCH DIAMETER.
0301 PM HAIL EMDEN 40.30N 89.49W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON INTERSTATE
155 NEAR EMDEN.
0408 PM HAIL 1 ENE PHILO 40.01N 88.14W
09/21/2012 M0.75 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL COCORAHS
0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE RIDGE FARM 39.93N 87.61W
09/21/2012 VERMILION IL EMERGENCY MNGR
A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN. ONE ON FIRE TANGLED IN POWER
LINES.
0754 PM HAIL MARTINSVILLE 39.34N 87.88W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH CLARK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
SHIMON
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LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
253 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL E SAN JOSE 40.31N 89.60W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH MASON IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SAN JOSE FIRE
CHIEF...HAIL COVERING THE GROUND LIKE SNOW...FROM 0.5 TO
1 INCH DIAMETER.
0301 PM HAIL EMDEN 40.30N 89.49W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON INTERSTATE
155 NEAR EMDEN.
0408 PM HAIL 1 ENE PHILO 40.01N 88.14W
09/21/2012 M0.75 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL COCORAHS
0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE RIDGE FARM 39.93N 87.61W
09/21/2012 VERMILION IL EMERGENCY MNGR
A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN. ONE ON FIRE TANGLED IN POWER
LINES.
0754 PM HAIL MARTINSVILLE 39.34N 87.88W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH CLARK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
SHIMON
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 220727
SWODY3
SPC AC 220726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGER-WAVELENGTH ERN
NOAM TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD OUT
OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE MEAN LARGE-SCALE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WRN
STATES...A SMALL-SCALE LOW/TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SEWD
DRIFT...MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THIS PERIOD. AS IT
DOES...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FINALLY...ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. IN BOTH
OF THESE AREAS HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 09/22/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 220726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGER-WAVELENGTH ERN
NOAM TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD OUT
OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE MEAN LARGE-SCALE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WRN
STATES...A SMALL-SCALE LOW/TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SEWD
DRIFT...MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THIS PERIOD. AS IT
DOES...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FINALLY...ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. IN BOTH
OF THESE AREAS HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 09/22/2012
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KILX [220709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KILX 220709
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
208 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE RIDGE FARM 39.93N 87.61W
09/21/2012 VERMILION IL EMERGENCY MNGR
A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN. ONE ON FIRE TANGLED IN POWER
LINES.
&&
$$
SHIMON
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LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
208 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE RIDGE FARM 39.93N 87.61W
09/21/2012 VERMILION IL EMERGENCY MNGR
A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN. ONE ON FIRE TANGLED IN POWER
LINES.
&&
$$
SHIMON
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 220540
SWODY2
SPC AC 220539
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE ERN NOAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT -- ALREADY OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL -- CONTINUES EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH TIME. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL E
OF THE ROCKIES.
FARTHER W...A SMALL UPPER LOW/TROUGH -- WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE MEAN
RIDGE ACROSS WRN NOAM -- IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SEWD FROM
OREGON...REACHING THE NRN NV VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA S OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS DEEP S TX IN
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY EVOLVE INVOF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BENEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH LITTLE
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 09/22/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 220539
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE ERN NOAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT -- ALREADY OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL -- CONTINUES EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH TIME. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL E
OF THE ROCKIES.
FARTHER W...A SMALL UPPER LOW/TROUGH -- WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE MEAN
RIDGE ACROSS WRN NOAM -- IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SEWD FROM
OREGON...REACHING THE NRN NV VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA S OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS DEEP S TX IN
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY EVOLVE INVOF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BENEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH LITTLE
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 09/22/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 220530
SWODY1
SPC AC 220528
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY...
...ERN U.S...
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AT LEAST TWO WELL DEFINED UPPER
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THE BROADER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THE LEAD VORT
APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND SHOULD DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO SERN ONTARIO THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP EWD INTO WRN NY/PA BY SUNRISE. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
SHOULD PLACE THE BOUNDARY ALONG ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...SWD INTO
CNTRL PA BY 18Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WITH SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BUT TRAJECTORIES FAVOR A GRADUAL MOISTENING NWD
INTO ERN NY AS LLJ STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE BORDER NEAR THE SFC LOW.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NY/PA DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE MID 60S OVER NY AND INTO THE 70S OVER PA. EVEN SO
BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT AS MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LINEAR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS
COULD EVOLVE ALONG SQUALL LINE AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY...SWD INTO DE BY 23/00Z. GIVEN THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT AND TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME.
...ERN ME...
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL GLANCE PORTIONS OF ME AND
NB. IF SFC DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AS LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC BASED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP. IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN
FRINGE OF THIS PLUME BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NB. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE 2 PERCENT SEVERE PROB FOR
TORNADOES AND 5 PERCENT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT
FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
PRIOR TO 21Z.
..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/22/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 220528
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY...
...ERN U.S...
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AT LEAST TWO WELL DEFINED UPPER
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THE BROADER GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THE LEAD VORT
APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND SHOULD DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO SERN ONTARIO THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP EWD INTO WRN NY/PA BY SUNRISE. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
SHOULD PLACE THE BOUNDARY ALONG ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...SWD INTO
CNTRL PA BY 18Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WITH SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BUT TRAJECTORIES FAVOR A GRADUAL MOISTENING NWD
INTO ERN NY AS LLJ STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE BORDER NEAR THE SFC LOW.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NY/PA DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE MID 60S OVER NY AND INTO THE 70S OVER PA. EVEN SO
BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT AS MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LINEAR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS
COULD EVOLVE ALONG SQUALL LINE AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY...SWD INTO DE BY 23/00Z. GIVEN THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT AND TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME.
...ERN ME...
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL GLANCE PORTIONS OF ME AND
NB. IF SFC DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AS LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC BASED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP. IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN
FRINGE OF THIS PLUME BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NB. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE 2 PERCENT SEVERE PROB FOR
TORNADOES AND 5 PERCENT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT
FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
PRIOR TO 21Z.
..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/22/2012
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KGRR [220526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KGRR 220526
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE STATE PARK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
1225 AM TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
09/22/2012 M41.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI COAST GUARD
THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE HAD A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
1234 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SSW MUSKEGON 43.15N 86.27W
09/22/2012 M39.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET
THE MESONET AT NORTON SHORES REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 39
MPH AT 1234 AM THIS MORNING.
1237 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MUSKEGON 43.18N 86.27W
09/22/2012 E38.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS
THE MUSEKGON ASOS HAD WIND GUST TO 38 MPH AS THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
1245 AM TSTM WND GST 2 NE GRAND HAVEN 43.08N 86.19W
09/22/2012 M42.00 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET
THE SPRING LAKE YACHT CLUB MESONET REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 42 MPH AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE STATE PARK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
1225 AM TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
09/22/2012 M41.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI COAST GUARD
THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE HAD A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
1234 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SSW MUSKEGON 43.15N 86.27W
09/22/2012 M39.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET
THE MESONET AT NORTON SHORES REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 39
MPH AT 1234 AM THIS MORNING.
1237 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MUSKEGON 43.18N 86.27W
09/22/2012 E38.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS
THE MUSEKGON ASOS HAD WIND GUST TO 38 MPH AS THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
1245 AM TSTM WND GST 2 NE GRAND HAVEN 43.08N 86.19W
09/22/2012 M42.00 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET
THE SPRING LAKE YACHT CLUB MESONET REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 42 MPH AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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KGRR [220514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KGRR 220514
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE STATE PARK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE STATE PARK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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KGRR [220455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 220455
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1255 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1237 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MUSKEGON 43.18N 86.27W
09/22/2012 E38 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS
THE MUSEKGON ASOS HAD WIND GUST TO 38 MPH AS THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1255 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1237 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MUSKEGON 43.18N 86.27W
09/22/2012 E38 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS
THE MUSEKGON ASOS HAD WIND GUST TO 38 MPH AS THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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KGRR [220452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 220452
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1251 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 AM TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
09/22/2012 M41 MPH MUSKEGON MI COAST GUARD
THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE HAD A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1251 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 AM TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
09/22/2012 M41 MPH MUSKEGON MI COAST GUARD
THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE HAD A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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KGRR [220444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 220444
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1244 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1234 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SSW MUSKEGON 43.15N 86.27W
09/22/2012 M39 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET
THE MESONET AT NORTON SHORES REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 39
MPH AT 1234 AM THIS MORNING.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1244 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1234 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SSW MUSKEGON 43.15N 86.27W
09/22/2012 M39 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET
THE MESONET AT NORTON SHORES REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 39
MPH AT 1234 AM THIS MORNING.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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KILN [220434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 220434
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW WESTVILLE 40.08N 83.86W
09/21/2012 CHAMPAIGN OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG OLD TROY PIKE
0932 PM TSTM WND DMG URBANA 40.11N 83.75W
09/21/2012 CHAMPAIGN OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
AT LEAST FOUR TREES DOWN IN URBANA. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
A HOUSE.
&&
$$
SNYDER
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW WESTVILLE 40.08N 83.86W
09/21/2012 CHAMPAIGN OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG OLD TROY PIKE
0932 PM TSTM WND DMG URBANA 40.11N 83.75W
09/21/2012 CHAMPAIGN OH LAW ENFORCEMENT
AT LEAST FOUR TREES DOWN IN URBANA. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
A HOUSE.
&&
$$
SNYDER
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KAPX [220426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 220426
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1226 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 AM HAIL 2 NW EAST JORDAN 45.18N 85.16W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
MBOGUTH
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1226 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 AM HAIL 2 NW EAST JORDAN 45.18N 85.16W
09/22/2012 M0.25 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
MBOGUTH
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KIND [220424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 220424
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1224 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM HAIL NORTH SALEM 39.86N 86.64W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
ALSO ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. TIME ESTIMATED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200802
$$
JAS
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1224 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM HAIL NORTH SALEM 39.86N 86.64W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
ALSO ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. TIME ESTIMATED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200802
$$
JAS
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KGRR [220415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 220415
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 AM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE STATE PARK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 AM WATER SPOUT 5 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.35W
09/21/2012 MUSKEGON MI 911 CALL CENTER
A WATER SPOUT WAS SEEN ABOUT 1 MILES WEST OF PERE
MARQUETTE STATE PARK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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