Saturday, September 29, 2012

KCHS [300301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 300301
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE WILLIAMS 33.05N 80.79W
09/29/2012 COLLETON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN AT SMYLY ROAD OFF OF MT CARMEL ROAD. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200778

$$

VB

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KJAN [300143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 300143
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
843 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0834 PM FLASH FLOOD N LITTLE SPRINGS 31.40N 90.73W
09/29/2012 FRANKLIN MS EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF WATER COVERING A BRIDGE ON LITTLE SPRINGS
ROAD.


&&

$$

DCOX

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KEWX [300047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 300047
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
747 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1137 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NW DEL RIO 29.46N 100.98W
09/27/2012 VAL VERDE TX OTHER FEDERAL

STRONG WINDS RIPPED PORCH ROOF FROM DIABLO EAST MARINA
STORE WITH WALL AND CEILING DAMAGE IN STORE. NOT FAR
AWAY A 28 FOOT PONTOON BOAT WAS FLIPPED FROM A PARKING
LOT OVER A FENCE INTO A FIELD. ALSO LOTS OF SMALL HAIL
PILED UP NEARBY.

0845 PM FLASH FLOOD 18 SSE SPOFFORD 28.95N 100.24W
09/28/2012 MAVERICK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER THE ROAD 10 MILES NORTHEAST FROM THE
JUNCTION OF FM481 AND HWY 57. TXDOT IN THE PROCESS OF
BARRICADING ROAD. WATER FROM ELM CREEK IS OVERFLOWING
THE ROAD BUT IS STILL PASSABLE AT THIS TIME.

0916 PM HEAVY RAIN SAN ANTONIO 29.46N 98.51W
09/28/2012 E2.00 INCH BEXAR TX UTILITY COMPANY

PUBLIC WORKS HAS CLOSED TEN STREETS DUE TO FLOODING
FROM 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE METRO AREA.

1103 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 N LA PRYOR 29.04N 99.85W
09/28/2012 ZAVALA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER THE ROADWAY HAS CLOSED HWY 83 SIX MILES
NORTH OF LA PRYOR. TXDOT DISPATCHED TO BARRICADE ROAD.

0400 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW LA PRYOR 29.02N 99.88W
09/29/2012 M8.39 INCH ZAVALA TX CO-OP OBSERVER

US HWY 83 CLOSED FROM THE COUNTY LINE SOUTH TO LA
PRYOR... SH117 CLOSED FROM COUNTY LINE SOUTH TO
BATESVILLE.

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE SHINER 29.44N 97.16W
09/29/2012 LAVACA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO RAILROAD ARM GUARD... BOAT FLIPPED OFF
TRAILER... SEVERAL TREES DOWN... CARPORT AND METAL
SKIRTING AROUND HOME DAMAGED


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200482 EWX1200483 EWX1200484 EWX1200485 EWX1200486
EWX1200487

$$

SBS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300047
SWODY1
SPC AC 300045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...
VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE EVOLVING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE WILL
DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS IT MIGRATES FROM PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. AS THIS OCCURS...
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH MODESTLY STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...APPEARS TO HAVE AIDED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED A BIT BY MODERATELY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER
...LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS EVENING...ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 09/30/2012

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KEWX [300043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 300043
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
743 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE SHINER 29.44N 97.16W
09/29/2012 LAVACA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO RAILROAD ARM GUARD... BOAT FLIPPED OFF
TRAILER... SEVERAL TREES DOWN... CARPORT AND METAL
SKIRTING AROUND HOME DAMAGED


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200487

$$

SBS

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KCHS [300025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 300025
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
825 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG RIDGELAND 32.48N 80.98W
09/29/2012 JASPER SC 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON BEES CREEK ROAD BLOCKING BOTH LANES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200777

$$

VB

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KCHS [300020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 300020
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
820 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM TSTM WND DMG TILLMAN 32.46N 81.11W
09/29/2012 JASPER SC 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF B AND C LANDING ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200776

$$

VB

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KCHS [300018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 300018
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
817 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL TARBORO 32.53N 81.15W
09/29/2012 E1.00 INCH JASPER SC 911 CALL CENTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200775

$$

VB

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KCRP [300000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 300000
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 PM HEAVY RAIN INGLESIDE 27.87N 97.20W
09/29/2012 E2.00 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL OF 2-2.25 INCHES IN SHORT TIME. STANDING WATER
IN YARDS AND FIELDS.


&&

$$

PZABEL

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KCRP [292357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 292357
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 PM TORNADO NW PORT LAVACA 28.61N 96.62W
09/29/2012 CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR DAMAGE TO A TRACTOR SUPPLY BUSINESS. GUTTERS BLOWN
OFF. ALSO POWER LINES DOWN IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

PZABEL

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KCAE [292336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 292336
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0714 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SSW IRWIN 34.60N 80.89W
09/29/2012 LANCASTER SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN ON SC 200
AT THE CATAWBA RIVER DAM

&&

$$

HC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 292223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292223
TXZ000-300000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292223Z - 300000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL EPISODIC STORMS
PRODUCING...AT TIMES...SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION. AN ISOLATED
BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONGER WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A MOISTURE-LADEN AIR MASS WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TX
COAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S AND PW VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCH. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...THIS RICH MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER CLOUDS HAS BOOSTED MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A SYNOPTIC LOW 20 N SAT...WHILE STREAMLINE ANALYSES
INFERRED A COUPLE OF SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE AREAS NNEWD IN
LLANO/BURNET COUNTIES TX...AND FARTHER NE BETWEEN WACO AND COLLEGE
STATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATED BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING SWD FROM EACH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTED THE ERN MOST
BAND EXTENDING SWD FROM THE ACT/CLL LOW AND AN AREA OF N-S ORIENTED
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD FROM OFFSHORE BRO TO INVOF VCT
AREA HAD THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THESE BANDS OF CONFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH
CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE TENDING TO INHIBIT MORE ROBUST/SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...THOUGH THE DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SHORT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AND
LACK OF DISCRETE CONVECTION.

LOW LCLS AND A N-S ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF GREATER EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-200 M2/S2 EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE THE SRN-MIDDLE GULF COAST
INLAND TO I-10 BETWEEN SAT/HOU ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
ROTATION WITH A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LONGER LIVED STORMS AND GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY IS
LOW AND AT THIS TIME DOES NOT WARRANT A WATCH.

..PETERS/CARBIN.. 09/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 27829692 27979761 28689764 29649731 30119682 29749585
29059549 28599561 27829692

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KCRP [292219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 292219
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
519 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TORNADO 1 NW PORT LAVACA 28.62N 96.63W
09/29/2012 CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERRIF BETWEEN FM 1090 AND HALF
LEAGUE RD.


&&

$$

PZABEL

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KCRP [292216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 292216
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
515 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM WATER SPOUT E PORT ARANSAS 27.89N 97.01W
09/29/2012 GMZ230 TX TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF WATERSPOUT EAST OF PORT ARANSAS.


&&

$$

PZABEL

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KRAH [292155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 292155
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
555 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E PEKIN 35.22N 79.80W
09/29/2012 MONTGOMERY NC 911 CALL CENTER

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SPOTTED IN THE DRY CREEK AREA. PENNY
SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200982

$$

CBL

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KSJT [292152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 292152
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
452 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLOOD BALLINGER 31.74N 99.96W
09/29/2012 RUNNELS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT FROM RUNNELS COUNTY AND BALLINGER
REPORTED THAT EVACUATIONS ARE TAKING PLACE ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF BALLINGER... NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF
ELM CREEK AND THE COLORADO RIVER. THE EVACUATIONS ARE
DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200252

$$

19

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 292150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292149
NCZ000-SCZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE SC...CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292149Z - 292245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS. DUE TO THE BRIEF/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED INVOF A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS N CNTRL SC EXTENDING NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...AND
ALONG AN APPARENT AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE THAT IS SAGGING ESEWD.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS SHOWING APPROXIMATELY 43 KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR...AND WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW /ALBEIT LIGHT/...AT LEAST BRIEF ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH STORMS THAT HAVE BECOME SUSTAINED. CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO HAVE LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE
ONGOING STORMS ARE PROGRESSING INTO A RELATIVE MAXIMUM WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-70S
TO LOWER 80S. AS SUCH...A NARROW TEMPORAL THREAT MAY EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 09/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34598192 35168038 35397923 35217860 34757856 34277919
34028017 33858102 33958190 34598192

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KCHS [292113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 292113
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
513 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL 2 SSE RUFFIN 32.98N 80.81W
09/29/2012 E0.88 INCH COLLETON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FOR A FEW SECONDS. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200774

$$

VB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291950
SWODY1
SPC AC 291947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS TO EXTEND THE 5
PERCENT WIND DAMAGE AND 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY AREAS FURTHER
WEST INTO SCNTRL TX. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT THAT STRONG...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 09/29/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SE TODAY. AN
EMBEDDED SEWD ADVANCING IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON MORNING WV IMAGERY OVER THE MID OH VALLEY. A
SECOND...MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE WAS INDICATED BY 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SUGGESTED BY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN GA
AND FAR WRN NC. TOGETHER...THESE IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING
IN THE E/SE ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN NC INTO
NRN GA/SC. FURTHER WEST...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AS IT TRACKS TOWARD ERN TX. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BECOMING POSITIONED
NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.

...WRN GULF COAST REGION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. THE RESULTING POOR LAPSE RATES WILL CURB
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE DESPITE A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS...PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2
INCHES/. GIVEN THIS MOIST AIRMASS...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR DOWNBURST
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EWD ADVANCEMENT OF SFC LOW.
SLIGHTLY INCREASING/BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A LOW SVR THREAT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

...CAROLINAS/FAR ERN GA...
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NC WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY AND
THUS STORM INTENSITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 500-750
J/KG AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW
/30-40 KT BULK SHEAR/...A MOIST AIRMASS /MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS...PW NEAR 1.50 INCHES/ AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG/SVR WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE SC AND ERN
GA...THINNER CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT GREATER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE BETTER SUITED TO AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISO-SCT STORMS DEVELOP.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291706
SWODY2
SPC AC 291704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY ESEWD FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A
PRONOUNCED 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE UPPER TX
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO LA AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY. ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE RAINSHIELD...THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN SE TX COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD INTO LA AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BELOW 3 KM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SRN LA AT 18Z SUN SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WITH
LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 500 METERS. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE AND POSSIBLY A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...CONCERNS EXISTS ABOUT WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP. ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING DESTABILIZATION...A
SLIGHT RISK COULD BE ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA IN LATER OUTLOOK
UPDATES.

..BROYLES.. 09/29/2012

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KSJT [291657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 291657
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1157 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM FLASH FLOOD OPLIN 32.14N 99.56W
09/29/2012 CALLAHAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FEW HIGH WATER
RESCUES DUE TO FLOODING ALONG THE SERVICE ROAD TO
INTERSTATE 20...NEAR OPLIN. SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS
HAVE ALSO BEEN FLOODED IN CALLAHAN COUNTY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200251

$$

19

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KSJT [291650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 291650
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1009 AM FLOOD BALLINGER 31.74N 99.96W
09/29/2012 RUNNELS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

THE CITY PARK IN BALLINGER WAS CLOSED...DUE TO WATER
RISING IN NEARBY ELM CREEK.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200250

$$

19

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KSJT [291646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 291646
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW BALLINGER 31.71N 99.99W
09/29/2012 RUNNELS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLOODING 8 INCHES OF
WATER OVER THE ROAD ON FARM TO MARKET ROAD 2133...
BETWEEN BALLINGER AND ROWENA.

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 S MILES 31.51N 100.18W
09/29/2012 TOM GREEN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE SAN ANGELO DPS REPORTED WATER OVER THE ROAD AT THE
CONCHO RIVER BRIDGE...ON FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1692.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200248
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200249

$$

19

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KTSA [291626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 291626
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLASH FLOOD STIGLER 35.25N 95.12W
09/29/2012 HASKELL OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW ROADS BRIEFLY CLOSED IN TOWN DUE TO WATER OVER
ROADWAYS.


&&

$$

RBD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291608
SWODY1
SPC AC 291605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SE TODAY. AN
EMBEDDED SEWD ADVANCING IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON MORNING WV IMAGERY OVER THE MID OH VALLEY. A
SECOND...MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE WAS INDICATED BY 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SUGGESTED BY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN GA
AND FAR WRN NC. TOGETHER...THESE IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING
IN THE E/SE ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN NC INTO
NRN GA/SC. FURTHER WEST...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AS IT TRACKS TOWARD ERN TX. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BECOMING POSITIONED
NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.

...WRN GULF COAST REGION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. THE RESULTING POOR LAPSE RATES WILL CURB
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE DESPITE A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS...PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2
INCHES/. GIVEN THIS MOIST AIRMASS...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR DOWNBURST
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EWD ADVANCEMENT OF SFC LOW.
SLIGHTLY INCREASING/BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A LOW SVR THREAT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

...CAROLINAS/FAR ERN GA...
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NC WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY AND
THUS STORM INTENSITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 500-750
J/KG AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW
/30-40 KT BULK SHEAR/...A MOIST AIRMASS /MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS...PW NEAR 1.50 INCHES/ AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG/SVR WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE SC AND ERN
GA...THINNER CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT GREATER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE BETTER SUITED TO AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISO-SCT STORMS DEVELOP.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/29/2012

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KSJT [291559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 291559
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1059 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW MERKEL 32.42N 100.07W
09/29/2012 TAYLOR TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE TAYLOR COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED THE CLOSURE
OF SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS...DUE TO HIGH WATER. THE LIST OF
CLOSURES IS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY ROADS... 126 127
150...154...353...AND 360. IN ADDITION...THE ABILENE
POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED CONSIDERABLE STREET FLOODING.
BARRICADES WERE PLACED ON SEVERAL OF THE FLOODED
STREETS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200247

$$

19

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KSJT [291549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 291549
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1049 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM FLASH FLOOD 11 S BALLINGER 31.58N 99.96W
09/29/2012 RUNNELS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT HIGHWAY 83 ALONG
THE BORDER OF RUNNELS AND CONCHO COUNTIES WAS CLOSED...
WITH ABOUT 4 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

0910 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW BALLINGER 31.67N 99.99W
09/29/2012 RUNNELS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FROM RUNNELS COUNTY REPORTED A
CLOSURE OF HIGHWAY 67 BETWEEN BALLINGER AND SAN
ANGELO... DUE TO HIGH WATER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200245
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200246

$$

19

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KEWX [291412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 291412
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
912 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW LA PRYOR 29.02N 99.88W
09/29/2012 M8.39 INCH ZAVALA TX CO-OP OBSERVER

US HWY 83 CLOSED FROM THE COUNTY LINE SOUTH TO LA
PRYOR... SH117 CLOSED FROM COUNTY LINE SOUTH TO
BATESVILLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200486

$$

JPB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291219
SWODY1
SPC AC 291217

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...WITH AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD THE MID OH VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS IMPULSE WILL
PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER IN THE DAY...WHICH
WILL CAUSE A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO ACCELERATE
OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A
DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH OVER NM/TX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO ERN TX.

...WRN GULF COAST REGION...
DISORGANIZED MCS HAS BEEN MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN TX DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NWD OVER THE TX/LA GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE MCS. THESE STORMS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND PW VALUES FROM 2.0-2.25 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK...WHICH WILL
LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR DOWNBURST WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. BY EVENING/NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED OVER TX...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS E-NEWD
ACROSS SRN INTO ERN TX. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST REGION. IN ADDITION TO
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

...CAROLINAS...FAR ERN GA...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER SPREADING EWD ACROSS NC THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. DESPITE MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND
SUBSEQUENT WEAK CAPE VALUES OVER NC...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WLY WINDS
AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SVR MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER S OVER SC AND FAR ERN
GA...CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS...WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRONGER HEATING
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON. THIS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/29/2012

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KCRP [291030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 291030
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
530 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SE CC NAS 27.60N 97.21W
09/29/2012 M49 MPH GMZ250 TX MESONET

BOB HALL PIER MEASURED GUST TO 43 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED AT
35 KTS.


&&

$$

HART

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KCRP [291002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 291002
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
502 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ESE CORPUS CHRISTI 27.69N 97.25W
09/29/2012 M47 MPH GMZ230 TX ASOS

CC NAS MEASURED 41 KT WIND GUST /47 MPH/ WITH PASSING
THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

HART

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290827
SWOD48
SPC AC 290826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH EJECTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS OCCURS DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD AS
STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
MS/AL BORDER AT 03/12Z. NEEDLESS TO SAY A RECOVERING WARM SECTOR
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION NECESSARY FOR
ROBUST/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PREDICTABILITY WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME FRAME.

..DARROW.. 09/29/2012

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KMAF [290807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 290807
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0221 AM FLASH FLOOD 18 NW FORT STOCKTON 31.08N 103.10W
09/29/2012 PECOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RUNNING OVER FARM TO MARKET 1776. CAR STRANDED AND
WATER RESCUE. WATER DEPTH WAS TO CAR HEADLIGHTS.


&&

$$

GREGORY.MURDOCH

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290712
SWODY3
SPC AC 290711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES...

LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INSIST A NOTABLE SFC REFLECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE UPPER TX COAST
THEN TRACK INTO ECNTRL MS BY 01/12Z. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS NRN
AL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND WITH A FOCUSED LLJ ON
THE ORDER OF 45KT THIS WILL ENSURE SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70F WILL
SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR
POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD PSEUDO-ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL BE
COMMON AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT SBCAPE TO ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITH
SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 50KT ACROSS
THIS REGION MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AT THIS TIME
WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. IF IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THEN ENHANCED SEVERE PROBS WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..DARROW.. 09/29/2012

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KCRP [290702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 290702
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
202 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0157 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N LAREDO 27.55N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M5.62 INCH WEBB TX COCORAHS

MEASURED AT SALDANA AND JACAMAN RD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

HART

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KCRP [290653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 290653
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
153 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M4.20 INCH WEBB TX AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED 1/4 MILE EAST OF KGNS TV STUDIOS.


&&

$$

HART

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KCRP [290636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 290636
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
136 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 AM FLASH FLOOD LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRANDED MOTORISTS THROUGHOUT THE
CITY OF LAREDO. MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS UNDER WATER.


&&

$$

HART

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KLWX [290628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 290628
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
228 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM FLOOD CULPEPER 38.47N 78.00W
09/28/2012 CULPEPER VA 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL ROADS NEAR CULPEPPER REMAINED CLOSED OVERNIGHT


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201351

$$

JRK

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