ACUS01 KWNS 300047
SWODY1
SPC AC 300045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...
VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MODELS...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE EVOLVING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE WILL
DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS IT MIGRATES FROM PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. AS THIS OCCURS...
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH MODESTLY STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...APPEARS TO HAVE AIDED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED A BIT BY MODERATELY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER
...LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS EVENING...ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 09/30/2012
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