Sunday, January 17, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180054
SWODY1
SPC AC 180052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN MD
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF A 998 MB SFC LOW. INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE STORMS SHOULD NOT POSE A SEVERE
THREAT.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COASTS OF ORE AND NRN CA TONIGHT SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

..BROYLES.. 01/18/2010

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KMFR [180053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180053
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
453 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW WILDERVILLE 42.36N 123.56W
01/17/2010 M1.20 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING 5PM.


&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KMFR [180014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180014
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0413 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE COOS BAY 43.36N 124.20W
01/17/2010 M57 MPH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

PEAK WIND AS OF 336 PM.


&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KMHX [172353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 172353
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NW SNOW HILL 35.50N 77.74W
01/17/2010 E50 MPH GREENE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

OUTBUILDING KNOCKED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SHINE
ROAD AND COW BRANCH ROAD IN THE FORT RUN AREA.


&&

$$

BCULLEN

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KRNK [172334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 172334
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM FLOOD PULASKI 37.05N 80.80W
01/17/2010 PULASKI VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ICE JAM ALONG PEAK CREEK AT LOTTIER BRIDGE. WATER COMING
OVER THE BRIDGE...ROAD CLOSED.

0628 PM FLOOD PULASKI 37.05N 80.80W
01/17/2010 PULASKI VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ICE JAM CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AT LITTLE CREEK ROAD AND
ALUM SPRING ROAD. ONE LANE CLOSED.


&&

$$

RSTONEFI

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KMFR [172333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 172333
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM SNOW CRATER LAKE 42.90N 122.13W
01/17/2010 M5.0 INCH KLAMATH OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

CRATER LAKE PARK HEADQUARTES REPORTED DAYTIME NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 5 INCHES. ALSO WINDS GUSTING IN 30 TO 50
MPH RANGE ON THE RIM. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO KEEP THE ROAD CLEAR.


&&

$$

LUTZ

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KRNK [172333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 172333
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..


&&

$$

RSTONEFI

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KMHX [172332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 172332
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
632 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST STOKES 35.71N 77.26W
01/17/2010 E50 MPH PITT NC EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO AN OUTBUILDING ON WORTHINGTON-WARREN
ROAD.


&&

$$

BCULLEN

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KJAX [172034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172034
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
333 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
01/17/2010 M48.00 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS

THE JACKSONVILLE INTL AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 48 MPH FROM 240 DEGREES.

0318 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANDARIN 30.15N 81.64W
01/17/2010 M46.00 MPH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH. SMALL
LIMBS WERE REPORTED DOWN IN MANDARIN.


&&

$$

ARS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 172001
SWODY1
SPC AC 172000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEAST VA...
SOME UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT AT MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS SC INTO NC PER VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY...NAMELY IN
THE FORM OF SMALL/LOW-TOPPED LINEAR SEGMENTS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY TIED TO A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING VORT MAX/SURGING DRY
SLOT...WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/SOME
TSTMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL/50+ KT FLOW AT 1 KM AND
ABOVE /PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS/...THERE IS A MODEST CONCERN FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HAVE REINTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 01/17/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS LOW
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY
00Z. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING OFF THE
NC COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTING THE MAINLAND.

...CAROLINAS...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NC/SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS.

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KJAX [171914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171914
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SW OCALA 29.16N 82.17W
01/17/2010 MARION FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STATE WARNING POINT RELAYED REPORT OF 3 HOMES WITH
ALUMINUM ROOFING TORN OFF ON SW 64TH LANE RD.


&&

$$

MZ

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KMHX [171810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 171810
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FRISCO 35.24N 75.63W
01/17/2010 M59 MPH DARE NC ASOS

HSE ASOS REPORTED GUST TO 51 KNOTS.


&&

$$

JBM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL
SYSTEM...RELATIVELY QUIET CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON MONDAY. THE PRIMARY TSTM/ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A STRONG PACIFIC JET/UPPER TROUGH NEARING
THE WEST COAST.

...CA COAST...
BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC UPPER
JET...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL BAND WILL PIVOT
INLAND ACROSS CA DURING THE DAY. WITH ONE OR MORE BANDS OF SHOWERY
CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND...APPRECIABLY
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS.

..GUYER.. 01/17/2010

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KMRX [171619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 171619
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1118 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1113 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TOWNSEND 35.68N 83.75W
01/16/2010 BLOUNT TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROCK SLIDE ON HWY 321 AT HATCHERS CUT. REPORTED BY
DISPATCH.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG GATLINBURG 35.72N 83.49W
01/17/2010 SEVIER TN PARK/FOREST SRVC

RANGER HAD TO CLEAR DEBRIS FROM PORTIONS OF NEWFOUND GAP
RD.

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ELIZABETHTON 36.34N 82.23W
01/17/2010 CARTER TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN ON TAYLOR AVE NEAR WATAUGA ROAD.
DISPATCHER.


&&

$$

MEP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171618
SWODY1
SPC AC 171616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS LOW
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY
00Z. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING OFF THE
NC COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTING THE MAINLAND.

...CAROLINAS...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NC/SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS.

..HART.. 01/17/2010

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KCHS [171351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171351
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
851 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 39 SSE CENTENARY 32.50N 79.10W
01/17/2010 M45 MPH AMZ370 XX BUOY

A PEAK WIND OF 45 MPH WAS RECORED BY BUOY 41004 AS A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE BUOY.


&&

$$

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KMHX [171235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 171235
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
734 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E AYDEN 35.47N 77.35W
01/17/2010 M55 MPH PITT NC UTILITY COMPANY

WIND GUST REPORTED BY GREENVILLE UTILITY ANEMOMETER IN
STOKESTOWN EAST OF AYDEN 55 MPH


&&

$$

JELARDO

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170944
SWOD48
SPC AC 170943

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

...DAY 4 AND 5...

SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT GFS...ECMWF AND
MREF MEMBER SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR REGARDING SERIES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND SERN STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH TX
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL
RETURN NWD BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SBCAPE FROM SE TX INTO THE GULF COAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS EXTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME THAT WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. IF ADEQUATE
SBCAPE DEVELOPS...STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS INITIALLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHIFTING EWD
ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MS VALLEY AND ERN
TX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH A
THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL.

BY THURSDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT STRONG DEEP LAYER
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...WITH INCREASING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS FL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA.

PREDICTABILITY DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND DAY 5.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0008

ACUS11 KWNS 170942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170941
NCZ000-SCZ000-171015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC TO SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170941Z - 171015Z

NON-ZERO THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUST PERSISTS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SC COAST /NEAR CHS/
TO THE SRN COASTAL AREA OF NC.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD ALONG
THE SC COAST...WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH
NEWD EXTENT TO THE SRN COASTAL AREA OF NC. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT NARROW FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN SC SWD TO EAST OF CHS AND
THEN OFFSHORE. THIS LINE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
DEEP FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SC.
RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THIS LINE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED.

OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS A PERSISTENT...LONG-LIVED...UPDRAFT
THAT RECENTLY REFORMED EAST OF CHS NEAR THE BORDER OF CHARLESTON/
GEORGETOWN COUNTIES PER CHS RADAR IMAGERY. THIS STORM IS LOCATED AT
THE INTERSECTION OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND VORTICITY HAVE AIDED IN PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THIS
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS SAME BOUNDARY...
REACHING NC /SRN COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES/ BY 11-12Z. IN
ADDITION TO WEAK INSTABILITY...THE DOWN-SHEARED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
FROM THIS LINE /EXTENDING TO MYR/ WILL BE ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO HAVE A MORE PERSISTENT SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32147982 32957995 33597983 33987932 34387849 34297780
33897759 33447767 32147982

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0007

ACUS11 KWNS 170834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170833
NCZ000-SCZ000-170900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC TO SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170833Z - 170900Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH 10-12Z...ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE
SC COAST TO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE NC COASTAL AREA /BRUNSWICK...
PENDER AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES/. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL WATCH GIVEN THE AVAILABLE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-60 KT PER CHS WSR-88D VWP/ AND
STRONG FORCING ATTENDANT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING TOWARD SC SUGGEST A NARROW FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THIS LINE
OF CONVECTION /WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/ EXTENDING FROM DORCHESTER TO
BEAUFORT COUNTIES AND THEN SWD OFFSHORE OF GA/NERN FL. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32187993 32768023 33278047 33747946 34197870 34347810
34177753 33927730 33377768 32697893 32187993

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170756
SWODY3
SPC AC 170755

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL PERSIST AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS
EWD THROUGH BAJA CA...NRN MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT.


...ERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY
OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO KS/OK. OWING TO RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION OVER THE
GULF...QUALITY OF RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH. HOWEVER..AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS OVER SRN-SERN TX AND UPPER 50F OVER N-CNTRL
AND NERN TX WILL BE LIKELY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE POSSIBLE.

A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER GIVEN EXPECTED LATE INITIATION. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH COULD
AUGMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. A
MORE NEWD TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ZONE OF DEEPER
ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED
FROM THE GREATER INSTABILITY. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170536
SWODY1
SPC AC 170535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL INCLUDE LOSS OF SPLIT-FLOW REGIME
OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ANALYZED INVOF SRN MS/AL WILL EJECT NEWD OVER SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NE TX IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY
AROUND 17/12Z...WHILE EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...THEN MOVING
EWD ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS. THIS TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EWD AS IT DOES
SO...AMIDST BELT OF ENHANCED CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCED BY LEADING
PERTURBATION.

INITIAL/OCCLUDED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED AT 17/04Z OVER E-CENTRAL MS
-- WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN APPALACHIANS DURING FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF
PERIOD WHILE WEAKENING. SECONDARY LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG WARM FRONT
FARTHER E BY 17/12Z AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS DURING
17/12Z-17/18Z TIME FRAME...THEN EWD ACROSS SERN VA AND SRN DELMARVA
BY ABOUT 18/00Z. MEANWHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT...NOW OVER CENTRAL
GULF...WILL CROSS CAROLINAS/GA/FL.

OVER NERN PACIFIC...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY W OF NRN CA AND ORE...BETWEEN 140W-145W. TSTMS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED NEAR THIS PERTURBATION FOR MUCH OF ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
PACIFIC. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT AND RELATED
COLD MIDLEVEL AIR MASS WITH THIS PERTURBATION MAY MAINTAIN GEN
THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG ITS TRACK ENEWD INTO PORTIONS COASTAL NRN CA
AND PAC NW AROUND 18/06Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND
WEAKENS INLAND.

...SC/NC/SERN VA...
BAND OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- RELATED TO LINE OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS NRN FL AND SRN GA -- IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NRN FL AND GA BY START OF
PERIOD...EXTENDING INLAND PORTIONS NERN SC AND ERN NC. NARROW WEDGE
OF MODIFIED MARINE AIR MAY EXTEND INLAND DURING MORNING ACROSS THIS
REGION AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT.
THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 60S F DEW
POINTS...BUT WEAK/SHORT-LIVED DIABATIC HEATING GIVEN PREDOMINANCE OF
ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
SHOULD SUFFICE TO YIELD SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN NEUTRAL SFC-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING MLCAPE IN 100-500 J/KG. AMIDST WHAT SHOULD
BE STG MID-UPPER FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILE S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND...WHETHER OR NOT CAPE IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE THAN SPORADIC THUNDER.

FARTHER W AND DURING AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY SHALLOW/POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS -- MAY OCCUR IN
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS CAROLINAS. COMPACT ZONE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IN MIDLEVELS...ACCOMPANYING EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL
COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL/MRGL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC DIABATIC
HEATING TO OFFSET AMBIENT/POSTFRONTAL CAA. THIS IN TURN MAY
DESTABILIZE LOW-MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DEEPLY ENOUGH FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO PRODUCE THUNDER. SMALL HAIL AND STG GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF AMBIENT WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE UNDER 200 J/KG MOST AREAS AND MUCAPE UP TO
500 J/KG.

...FL...
TRAILING PORTION OF CONVECTIVE/ASCENT BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FROM 12Z ONWARD AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS PENINSULA...RELATED TO
COMBINATION OF
1. EJECTION OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AWAY FROM AREA....AND
2. VEERING WARM-SECTOR FLOW THAT WILL SERVE TO REDUCE BOTH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE.
GIVEN ALREADY FEEBLE LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION...LACK OF
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ALOFT AND TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER FORCING WITH TIME WILL RENDER ONLY MRGL THUNDER
POTENTIAL...AND SVR THREAT TOO SMALL/CONDITIONAL FOR AOA 5-PERCENT
UNCONDITIONAL GRID PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170525
SWODY2
SPC AC 170524

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
IMPULSES NORTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA COASTAL AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PART OF CA EARLY MONDAY
WHERE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL JET. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT NORTH OF THE JET
AXIS MOVE INLAND. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN
COASTAL AREAS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 60+ KT...AND SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0006

ACUS11 KWNS 170522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170522
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-170645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE FL...SE GA AND SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170522Z - 170645Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE FL...SE GA AND SRN SC
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ALTHOUGH A WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NRN FL ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
NWD INTO ECNTRL GA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LINE OF
CONVECTION IS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE AXIS OF A
STRENGTHENING 55 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND A FEW BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP AS THE LINE BECOMES MORE DEFINED AFTER 06Z. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSONVILLE ARE SAMPLING
THE JET SHOWING 50 KT OF FLOW BELOW 1 KM. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS IN THE LINE BUT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. IN ADDITION...A STABLE LAYER
EXISTS NEAR THE SFC. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28698162 28578213 29248252 31198248 32328155 33248034
32887975 31288130 29838139 29108138 28698162

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