Sunday, January 17, 2010

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170756
SWODY3
SPC AC 170755

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL PERSIST AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS
EWD THROUGH BAJA CA...NRN MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT.


...ERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY
OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO KS/OK. OWING TO RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION OVER THE
GULF...QUALITY OF RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH. HOWEVER..AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS OVER SRN-SERN TX AND UPPER 50F OVER N-CNTRL
AND NERN TX WILL BE LIKELY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE POSSIBLE.

A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER GIVEN EXPECTED LATE INITIATION. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH COULD
AUGMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. A
MORE NEWD TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ZONE OF DEEPER
ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED
FROM THE GREATER INSTABILITY. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2010

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