Thursday, October 13, 2011

KFFC [132318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KFFC 132318
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCHELLE 31.95N 83.46W
10/13/2011 WILCOX GA EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 7 TO 8 TREES DOWN IN ROCHELLE
WITH A COUPLE CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES.


&&

$$

DEESE

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KLWX [132315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 132315
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
715 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE AQUIA 38.50N 77.37W
10/13/2011 STAFFORD VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101962

$$

SMZ

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KCAE [132314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132314
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG RIDGE SPRING 33.85N 81.66W
10/13/2011 SALUDA SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN RIDGE SPRING AREA.

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW JOHNSTON 33.88N 81.86W
10/13/2011 SALUDA SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON ROCKY CREEK ROAD

0654 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNW BATESBURG 34.05N 81.60W
10/13/2011 SALUDA SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR LAKE MURRAY ON MT WILLING RD.


&&

$$

KILMER

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KFFC [132313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 132313
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCHELLE 31.95N 83.46W
10/13/2011 WILCOX GA EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 7 TO 8 TREES DOWN IN ROCHELLE
WITH A COUPLE CAUSING MINOR DAMGE TO HOMES.


&&

$$

DEESE

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KCAE [132305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132305
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
705 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0559 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N BELVEDERE 33.61N 81.94W
10/13/2011 EDGEFIELD SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE UPROOTED ON POWERLINE ON SHORTCUT RD NEAR FOX CREEK
HIGH SCHOOL.

0617 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW JOHNSTON 33.88N 81.87W
10/13/2011 EDGEFIELD SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ACROSS ROAD NEAR OLD CHAPPELLS FERRY RD AND ANNAS LN


0612 PM TSTM WND DMG EDGEFIELD 33.79N 81.93W
10/13/2011 EDGEFIELD SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR PICKENS ST


&&

$$

KILMER

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KCAE [132254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132254
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 W TROY 33.99N 82.40W
10/13/2011 MCCORMICK SC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES.

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 N EVANS 33.67N 82.18W
10/13/2011 MCCORMICK SC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON HWY 28 NEAR CLARKS HILL


&&

$$

KILMER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2255

ACUS11 KWNS 132253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132253
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND WRN AND NRN MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 866...

VALID 132253Z - 140030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 866 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NERN VA THROUGH WRN AND
NRN MD. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE BY
01Z.

EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MD THROUGH NRN VA
AND WNWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. MOIST WARM SECTOR PERSIST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 60S-70F DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST LAPSE RATES PROFILES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
VORT MAX EJECTING NWD THROUGH VA THIS EVENING. VWP DATA INDICATE
35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...AND LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE FLOW IS
BACKED TO SELY WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 100-200
M2/S2. SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...BUT THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NERN VA INTO NRN AND WRN MD AS STORMS
LIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BEGIN
A GRADUAL DECREASE BY 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 10/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38937800 39407702 39157618 38317593 37447608 37297672
37547742 37897772 38937800

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KFFC [132253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 132253
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
653 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL UVALDA 32.04N 82.51W
10/13/2011 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY GA PUBLIC

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS REPORTED AT THE DOLLAR
GENERAL IN UVALDA.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KCAE [132241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132241
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE CLEARWATER 33.52N 81.83W
10/13/2011 AIKEN SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DISPATCH REPORTED TREES DOWN IN THE WARRENVILLE
AND BATH AREAS.

0604 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNW AIKEN 33.60N 81.77W
10/13/2011 AIKEN SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DISPATCH REPORTED TREES DOWN BETWEEN VAUCLUSE AND
AIKEN.


&&

$$

VAUGHAN

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KFFC [132238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 132238
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM HAIL 1 WNW MCRAE 32.07N 82.91W
10/13/2011 E1.00 INCH TELFAIR GA AMATEUR RADIO

0607 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MCRAE 32.07N 82.91W
10/13/2011 E60.00 MPH TELFAIR GA AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KCAE [132235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132235
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N BELVEDERE 33.59N 81.94W
10/13/2011 EDGEFIELD SC AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON US 25 REPORTED BY HAM OPERATOR

0554 PM COASTAL FLOOD 8 SE AUGUSTA 33.39N 81.88W
10/13/2011 AIKEN SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN OLD JACKSON AND KIMBERLY.

0554 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW BELVEDERE 33.61N 82.03W
10/13/2011 EDGEFIELD SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR MARTINTOWN RD AND WOODLAWN.

0554 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S CLEARWATER 33.44N 81.90W
10/13/2011 AIKEN SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR ATOMIC ROAD AND TOOLE CIR.


&&

$$

KILMER

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KPBZ [132235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 132235
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FLOOD 1 E BELMONT 40.03N 81.02W
10/13/2011 BELMONT OH EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 149 FLOODED NEAR BARKCAMP STATE PARK AND THE
VILLAGE OF LAMIRA. WATER APPROACHING TRAILERS.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101193

$$

XX

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KCAE [132234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132234
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW EVANS 33.50N 82.15W
10/13/2011 COLUMBIA GA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN ON POWERLINE NEAR OAKLEY PIRKLE RD REPORTED BY
WRDW.


&&

$$

KILMER

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KPBZ [132233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 132233
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 EDT TI WHI-NU 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FLOOD 1 E BELMONT 40.03N 81.02W
10/13/2011 BELMONT OH EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 149 FLOODED NEAR BARKCAMP STATE PARK AND THE
VILLAGE OF LAMIRA. WATER APPROACHING TRAILERS.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101193

$$

XX

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KPBZ [132232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 132232
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 EDT TI WHI-NU 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FLOOD 1 E BELMONT 40.03N 81.02W
10/13/2011 BELMONT OH EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 149 FLOODED NEAR BARCAMP STATE PARK AND THE
VILLAGE OF LAMIRA. WATER APPROACHING TRAILERS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101193

$$

XX

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KMLB [132222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 132222
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
622 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NE CAPE CANAVERAL 28.44N 80.56W
10/13/2011 M43.00 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF 54 FT WIND TOWER NUMBER 20 MEASURED A 37 KT/43 MPH
WIND GUST.


&&

$$

ARB

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KFFC [132208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 132208
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
608 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG GIBSON 33.23N 82.60W
10/13/2011 GLASCOCK GA 911 CALL CENTER

10-15 LARGE TREES REPORTED DOWNED COUNTYWIDE INCLUDING
ONE THAT FELL ONTO A POWER LINE.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KCAE [132200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132200
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
600 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM TSTM WND GST AUGUSTA 33.46N 82.00W
10/13/2011 E0 MPH RICHMOND GA ASOS

PEAK WIND OF 54 MPH REPORTED BY ASOS AT AUGUSTA BUSH
FIELD - AGS


&&

$$

KILMER

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KCAE [132157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132157
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
557 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 2 NNE EVANS 33.53N 82.13W
10/13/2011 E0.75 INCH COLUMBIA GA AMATEUR RADIO

PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN EVANS GA

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW AUGUSTA 33.51N 82.05W
10/13/2011 RICHMOND GA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT ALONG I-20 NEAR MARTINEZ.

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW AUGUSTA 33.47N 82.02W
10/13/2011 RICHMOND GA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN IN AUGUSTA REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR.


&&

$$

KILMER

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KFFC [132157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KFFC 132157
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
557 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW ARABI 31.86N 83.75W
10/13/2011 CRISP GA EMERGENCY MNGR

CRISP COUNTY EMA RELAYED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KLWX [132155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 132155
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
555 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE MIDLAND 38.59N 77.70W
10/13/2011 FAUQUIER VA EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A HOME AND BARN ON MIDLAND ROAD.
7 PEOPLE DISPLACED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101961

$$

STRONG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2254

ACUS11 KWNS 132154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132153
SCZ000-GAZ000-132330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN GA...WRN/SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132153Z - 132330Z

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN GA AND WRN/SRN
SC WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH EVENING. WW DOES NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS
AL/GA...WITH MIXED MODE OF LINES AND DISCRETE CELLS OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE OVER SRN/ERN GA...MOVING E AT AROUND 35 KT. ONE LINE
OF STORMS LOCATED 20 W OF AGS AT 2130Z IS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO
50 KT MIDLEVEL W-SWLYS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD ENTER SC DURING THE NEXT HOUR...THOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
IS RESULTING IN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY E OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
/I.E. MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J PER KG/. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...DESPITE FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR
/0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/. FARTHER S OVER SRN GA...HI-RES RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATED A CELL WHICH MOVED ACROSS CRISP COUNTY AT 2110Z
DISPLAYED MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED...BUT OTHER DISCRETE
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER SRN GA...AND COULD DEVELOP
SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS OVER
THE AREA...AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THOUGH
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT PAST SUNSET...BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING/DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND IN STORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS.

..GARNER.. 10/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32788302 34138265 34628136 33168068 31428124 30798199
30778444 31278484 31838448 32788302

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KFFC [132154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 132154
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0201 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S HAMILTON 32.73N 84.88W
10/13/2011 HARRIS GA 911 CALL CENTER

HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF 6-10 DOWNED TREES
ALONG THE AREAS OF HWY 219 AND HWY 103.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KLWX [132151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 132151
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM TSTM WND DMG CALVERTON 38.63N 77.67W
10/13/2011 FAUQUIER VA NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101960

$$

SMZ

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KCAE [132150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 132150
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W HARLEM 33.41N 82.39W
10/13/2011 MCDUFFIE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

MANY LIMBS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTY WIDE. DEARING
AREA HARDEST HIT.


&&

$$

KILMER

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KAKQ [132149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132149
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
549 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TORNADO 1 WSW POPLAR GROVE 37.58N 77.06W
10/13/2011 NEW KENT VA 911 CALL CENTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON OLD RIVER ROAD NEAR TALLYSVILLE
ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100220

$$

JO

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KAKQ [132145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132145
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
545 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TORNADO 1 NNW BROWNS CORNER 37.53N 77.10W
10/13/2011 NEW KENT VA 911 CALL CENTER

DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO GW WATKINS ELEMENTARY. THE
EXTENT OF DAMAGE WAS UKNOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100219

$$

JO

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KAKQ [132141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132141
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
541 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 1 N NANCE 37.48N 77.13W
10/13/2011 NEW KENT VA 911 CALL CENTER

ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME ON SOLDIERS REST CIRCLE. MOST OF
THE SHINGLES WERE REMOVED FROM THE HOME.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100218

$$

JO

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KFFC [132132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 132132
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
532 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SW CORDELE 31.91N 83.84W
10/13/2011 CRISP GA EMERGENCY MNGR

CRISP COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF ANTIOCH AND RANGE STATION ROADS.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KFFC [132131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 132131
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
531 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM TSTM WND DMG MACON 32.83N 83.64W
10/13/2011 BIBB GA BROADCAST MEDIA

WGXA-TV RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE ON
CULVER STREET IN MACON.

0506 PM HAIL 4 S CORDELE 31.91N 83.77W
10/13/2011 E0.75 INCH CRISP GA EMERGENCY MNGR

CRISP COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED A REPORT OF
DIME SIZED HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 41 AND HWY
33.

0508 PM HAIL 2 ENE ARABI 31.84N 83.71W
10/13/2011 E1.00 INCH CRISP GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT THE PLANTATION
HOUSE NEAR ARABI.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KAKQ [132119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132119
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
519 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO NEW KENT AIRPORT 37.50N 77.12W
10/13/2011 NEW KENT VA TRAINED SPOTTER

A GAZEBO WAS DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS FRUIT TREES
UPROOTED AT 7100 LAKE SHORE DR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100217

$$

JO

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KAKQ [132105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132105
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
505 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 1 S WOODHAVEN SHORES 37.48N 77.13W
10/13/2011 NEW KENT VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SPOTTER REPORT OF TORNADO ON THE GROUND


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100216

$$

DAP

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KAKQ [132102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132102
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
502 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 1 N FIVE LAKES SUBDIVIS 37.51N 77.17W
10/13/2011 NEW KENT VA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN FROM A TORNADO AS IT CROSSED I-64 JUST EAST
OF EXIT 205.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100215

$$

JO

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KKEY [132049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 132049
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
448 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 7 NNW MARATHON 24.81N 81.12W
10/13/2011 GMZ032 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A RETIRED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED A
FUNNEL CLOUD AT 435PM LOCAL APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES TO THE
NORTH NORTHWEST OF MARATHON. THE FUNNEL CLOUD WAS PRESENT
ALONG A CLOUD LINE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AT
THE TIME. DURATION UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

ULRICH

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KAKQ [132044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132044
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TORNADO 2 S BOSWELLS TAVERN 38.04N 78.19W
10/13/2011 LOUISA VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF DAMAGE TO HOUSE


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100214

$$

DAP

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KAKQ [132036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 132036
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TORNADO GREEN SPRINGS 38.09N 78.11W
10/13/2011 LOUISA VA BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1100213

$$

DAP

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 866...corrected

WWUS20 KWNS 132029 CCA
SEL6
SPC WW 132029 CCA
DCZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-140100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 866...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

CORRECTED FOR WATCH EXPIRATION TIME

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
SOUTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON
DISTRICT OF COLUM TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF RICHMOND
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAS EVOLVED THIS
AFTERNOON INVOF OF A WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS
IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THOUGH AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/LOW
LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.


...MEAD

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 866

WWUS20 KWNS 132029
SEL6
SPC WW 132029
DCZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-140300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
SOUTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON
DISTRICT OF COLUM TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF RICHMOND
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAS EVOLVED THIS
AFTERNOON INVOF OF A WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS
IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THOUGH AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/LOW
LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.


...MEAD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 132018
SWODY1
SPC AC 132016

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011

VALID 132008Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN AND NRN VA INTO THE
DELMARVA...

AMENDED TO ADD LOW TORNADO PROBS

ADDED 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR A SMALL PORTION OF VA...MD AND
DE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE/BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. LOCALIZED SHEAR IN
THIS VICINITY MAY RESULT IN A WEAK AND BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

------------------------------------------------------------------

...AL/GA...
SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODESTLY STRONG
WLY FLOW REGIME WILL HAVE A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS AL
AND GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 2253.

...MID ATLANTIC...
POCKETS OF HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION FROM NC
INTO THE DELMARVA WITH DEEPENING CU FIELDS. A GRADUALLY DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AS THE MAIN UPPER VORT
CENTER APPROACHES WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS AS THEY CROSS THE
WARM FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY IS ACCOMPANIED BY EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-150 M2/S2. RELATIVELY BROAD AND WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DOWN...RESULTING IN
A CONTINUED SEE TEXT AREA.

ADDED A 5% HAIL AREA FROM ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS AND WHERE SPORADIC MARGINAL HAIL CORES APPEAR
POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 10/13/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2011/

...CNTRL GULF STATES TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST AND NWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON POLEWARD SIDE OF 80-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE ESEWD...CONTRIBUTING
TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF NEGATIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL CANADA TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
14/12Z. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD
FROM THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE MIDDLE AND
SERN ATLANTIC COASTS BY FRI MORNING.

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT
COINCIDENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. AND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
A MOIST AND WARMING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS INVERSION WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY...LIMITING THE
DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL BUOYANCY. THE COUPLING OF DCVA IN
ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL PROMOTE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITHIN
A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A STEADILY STRENGTHENING WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF
STORMS INTO BROKEN LINES WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM ERN NC NWD
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE CAROLINAS WHICH
WILL PROGRESS NNEWD AND COMBINE WITH A DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
FIELD TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. BUT...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH A
STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SUPERCELL/TORNADO
THREAT. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AT 20Z.

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KCYS [131952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131952
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
152 PM MDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
10/13/2011 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131911
SWODY1
SPC AC 131909

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AL/GA...
SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODESTLY STRONG
WLY FLOW REGIME WILL HAVE A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS AL
AND GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 2253.

...MID ATLANTIC...
POCKETS OF HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION FROM NC
INTO THE DELMARVA WITH DEEPENING CU FIELDS. A GRADUALLY DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AS THE MAIN UPPER VORT
CENTER APPROACHES WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS AS THEY CROSS THE
WARM FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY IS ACCOMPANIED BY EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-150 M2/S2. RELATIVELY BROAD AND WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DOWN...RESULTING IN
A CONTINUED SEE TEXT AREA.

ADDED A 5% HAIL AREA FROM ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXISTS AND WHERE SPORADIC MARGINAL HAIL CORES APPEAR
POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 10/13/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2011/

...CNTRL GULF STATES TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST AND NWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON POLEWARD SIDE OF 80-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE ESEWD...CONTRIBUTING
TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF NEGATIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL CANADA TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
14/12Z. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD
FROM THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE MIDDLE AND
SERN ATLANTIC COASTS BY FRI MORNING.

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT
COINCIDENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. AND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
A MOIST AND WARMING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS INVERSION WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY...LIMITING THE
DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL BUOYANCY. THE COUPLING OF DCVA IN
ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL PROMOTE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITHIN
A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A STEADILY STRENGTHENING WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF
STORMS INTO BROKEN LINES WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM ERN NC NWD
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE CAROLINAS WHICH
WILL PROGRESS NNEWD AND COMBINE WITH A DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
FIELD TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. BUT...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH A
STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SUPERCELL/TORNADO
THREAT. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AT 20Z.

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KFFC [131855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KFFC 131855
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 PM TSTM WND DMG MULBERRY GROVE 32.66N 84.96W
10/13/2011 HARRIS GA 911 CALL CENTER

HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF SEVERAL DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES IN SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS
AND 2 HOMES HAD TREES DOWNED ONTO THEM.

0154 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW FLAT ROCK 32.53N 84.88W
10/13/2011 MUSCOGEE GA 911 CALL CENTER

MUSCOGEE COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE IN
THE GATEWAY ROAD AREA OF COLUMBUS.

0207 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE WAVERLY HALL 32.72N 84.71W
10/13/2011 HARRIS GA 911 CALL CENTER

HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE ON
ALABAMA ROAD.

0230 PM HAIL 2 S TALBOTTON 32.65N 84.54W
10/13/2011 E0.50 INCH TALBOT GA 911 CALL CENTER

TALBOT COUNTY 911 REPORTED SMALL HAIL...JUST SMALLER THAN
A DIME...AT THE 911 CENTER SOUTH OF TALBOTTON.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KFFC [131851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 131851
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL 2 S TALBOTTON 32.65N 84.54W
10/13/2011 E0.50 INCH TALBOT GA 911 CALL CENTER

TALBOT COUNTY 911 REPORTED SMALL HAIL...JUST SMALLER THAN
A DIME...AT THE 911 CENTER SOUTH OF TALBOTTON.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KCYS [131847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131847
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1246 PM MDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 SE ARLINGTON 41.52N 106.11W
10/13/2011 M43.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS.

0701 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
10/13/2011 M42.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 38 MPH AND 42 MPH BETWEEN 650 AM
AND 750 AM MDT.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KFFC [131845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 131845
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0207 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE WAVERLY HALL 32.72N 84.71W
10/13/2011 HARRIS GA 911 CALL CENTER

HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE ON
ALABAMA ROAD.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2253

ACUS11 KWNS 131819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131818
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA...SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131818Z - 131945Z

LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST WEAK UPPER VORT HAS MIGRATED
EWD ALONG THE TN/AL BORDER TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF CHA. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN AL/WRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EVOLVING ALONG NERN PLUME OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE NEAR THE GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON
IT WOULD SEEM THAT TSTM UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS OR
AT LEAST EXHIBIT SOME STRENGTH FROM TIME TO TIME AS DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZATION. NE-SW
ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
AND HAIL COULD APPROACH DIME SIZE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.

..DARROW.. 10/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31868672 33268413 32358290 30668550 31868672

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KFFC [131813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 131813
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
213 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW FLAT ROCK 32.53N 84.88W
10/13/2011 MUSCOGEE GA 911 CALL CENTER

MUSCOGEE COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE IN
THE GATEWAY ROAD AREA OF COLUMBUS.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KFFC [131807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 131807
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 PM TSTM WND DMG MULBERRY GROVE 32.66N 84.96W
10/13/2011 HARRIS GA 911 CALL CENTER

HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF SEVERAL DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES IN SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS
AND 2 HOMES HAD TREES DOWNED ONTO THEM.


&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KBMX [131758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 131758
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1232 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E OPELIKA 32.65N 85.33W
10/13/2011 LEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREETOPS AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR THE SALEM AREA.


&&

$$

88

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KMHX [131735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 131735
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
134 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0116 PM HAIL BEULAVILLE 34.92N 77.77W
10/13/2011 E1.75 INCH DUPLIN NC POST OFFICE

POST OFFICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED APPROX. GOLF SIZE HAIL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100415

$$

MELENDEZ

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