KCYS [170058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 170058
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
658 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 NNW ARLINGTON 41.60N 106.21W
10/16/2008 M40.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS 40-45 MPH FROM 1130 AM TO 1230 PM MDT
WITH GUSTS TO 56 MPH AT 1205 PM AND 1211 PM MDT

0309 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SE BUFORD 41.08N 105.25W
10/16/2008 M51.00 MPH LARAMIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

ELEV. 7600 FT.

0334 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W LARAMIE 41.31N 105.68W
10/16/2008 M53.00 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
10/16/2008 M57.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0604 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.11W
10/16/2008 M52.00 MPH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JHATTEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170037
SWODY1
SPC AC 170034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER VORT NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN CO.
MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
RESULT IN DEEPENING ELEVATED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NEB
TONIGHT. IT APPEARS WITH TIME SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP...IF
LIFTING PARCELS NEAR 800 MB...FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TREND IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING FROM NERN CO INTO THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE.

...NWRN GULF OF MEXICO/LA...

WEAK CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER LA HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE ONLY LIGHTING NOW OBSERVED OFFSHORE
OF THE SRN TX COAST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LA WILL BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED...AND MOST LIKELY OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
NWRN GULF WITHIN DEEPER MOIST CONVEYOR.

..DARROW.. 10/17/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161959
SWODY1
SPC AC 161956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WHILE THE SRN EXTENT MOVED THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND INTO
THE WRN GULF. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES...FORCED ASCENT
ALONG THE GULF PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO AT LEAST SW LA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING.

FARTHER N INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SEWD FROM MT/WY INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.
WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB BY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY.

..PETERS.. 10/16/2008

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KCRP [161732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 161732
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM WATER SPOUT 2 WSW CORPUS CHRISTI 27.70N 97.32W
10/15/2008 GMZ230 TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LOCAL TELEVISION FOOTAGE CONFIRMED A SHORT LIVED
WATERSPOUT OCCURRED ON OSO BAY.

&&

$$

JR

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161701
SWODY2
SPC AC 161659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING
DAY 1 PERIOD WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS EWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMANATING FROM A
LARGE CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO AND WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
WRN GULF SHOULD TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SERN
STATES DURING DAY 2.

IN THE LOW LEVELS AT 12Z FRIDAY...A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND WWD
THROUGH NC TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THEN SWWD THROUGH SERN LA TO
THE WRN GULF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS AND INTO SRN GA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
DESPITE SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WEAK LAPSE RATES
WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE FEW WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING NEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

..PETERS.. 10/16/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161555
SWODY1
SPC AC 161552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

S/WV TROUGH NRN ROCKIES WILL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS IT CROSSES THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB BY THIS EVENING.
ACCORDINGLY THUNDER PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THIS AREA.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL PORTIONS OF TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG TRAILING
PORTIONS OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFFSHORE AS SFC FRONT SURGES INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 10/16/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160808
SWOD48
SPC AC 160807

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO HANDLING OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. BOTH FORECAST A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE EACH OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THE INITIAL FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SWD THROUGH FL AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN A COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. THUS -- WITH RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE CONUS...LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
ADEQUATE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF NEW FRONTAL PASSAGES
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160735
SWODY3
SPC AC 160732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD ACROSS FL THIS PERIOD...AS THE
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT...LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ONLY SLOW EWD
PROGRESS...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160553
SWODY2
SPC AC 160552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING
EWD...AND A SECOND TROUGH MOVES TO THE W COAST LATE. IN BETWEEN...A
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LYING NNE-SSW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW SEWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOVING
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS WITH TIME AND INTO NRN FL BY
18/12Z.

WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL FOCUS RAIN/CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ONSHORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MEAGER...LIMITING
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY EXPECTED JUST
OFFSHORE...A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...ONSHORE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW
ENOUGH ATTM THAT A THREAT AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160530
SWODY1
SPC AC 160527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD.
DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE GULF STATES AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST TWO SMALL REGIONS
OF POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION THURSDAY. ONE REGION WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT FROM SERN PA/MD INTO DE/NJ. DEEPENING WLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
ALLOW SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING. EVEN SO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ANOTHER REGION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM LA
INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF TX. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AS SFC FRONT SURGES
SOUTH INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/16/2008

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