SWODY1
SPC AC 160527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD.
DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE GULF STATES AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST TWO SMALL REGIONS
OF POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION THURSDAY. ONE REGION WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT FROM SERN PA/MD INTO DE/NJ. DEEPENING WLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
ALLOW SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING. EVEN SO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANOTHER REGION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM LA
INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF TX. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AS SFC FRONT SURGES
SOUTH INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/16/2008
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