Saturday, October 23, 2010

KFWD [232247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 232247
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM HAIL 3 S EUSTACE 32.26N 95.98W
10/23/2010 E1.75 INCH HENDERSON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL JUST SOUTH OF
EUSTACE.

$$

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KDMX [232240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDMX 232240
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
540 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM HAIL 2 W ALBIA 41.03N 92.84W
10/23/2010 E0.88 INCH MONROE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

A LOT OF PEA TO PENNY HAIL FALLING WITH INTERMITTENT
STONES AS LARGE AS NICKELS.


&&

$$

BOKSA

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KFWD [232238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 232238
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
537 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM TSTM WND DMG TEAGUE 31.62N 96.28W
10/23/2010 FREESTONE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE BLOWN DOWN INTO POWER LINES IN TEAGUE

$$

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KDVN [232237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 232237
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 3 ESE KEOKUK 40.40N 91.34W
10/23/2010 E0.88 INCH HANCOCK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL HAIL.


&&

$$

ERVIN

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KDMX [232233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 232233
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
533 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM HAIL 2 W ALBIA 41.03N 92.84W
10/23/2010 E0.88 INCH MONROE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

A LOT OF PEA TO PENNY HAIL FALLING WITH INTERMITTENT
STONES AS LARGE AS NICKELS.


&&

$$

BOKSA

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KVEF [232233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 232233
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
332 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM FLASH FLOOD ECHO BAY 36.32N 114.41W
10/20/2010 CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

HEAVY RAINS PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THE ECHO BAY AREA
WITH A CAR/TRAILOR BEING REPORTED BEING WASHED OFF THE
ROAD.


&&

$$

LJENSEN

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KVEF [232231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 232231
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
331 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM FLASH FLOOD CALLVILLE BAY 36.13N 114.73W
10/20/2010 CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED FLOWING WATER/DEBRIS DOWNWASH AND
INTO THE CALLVILLE BAY AREA.


&&

$$

LJENSEN

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KDMX [232229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 232229
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
529 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM HAIL 1 W ALBIA 41.03N 92.82W
10/23/2010 E0.88 INCH MONROE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

ALONG HIGHWAY 34


&&

$$

BF

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KVEF [232227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 232227
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
327 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM HEAVY RAIN URSINE 37.98N 114.20W
10/22/2010 U0.00 INCH LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER CONTINUED TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAYS EAST OF PIOCHE
IN THE URSINE/EAGLE VALLEY AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN
WAS THE ECHO DAM ROAD FROM HIGHWAY 322 SOUTH TO THE ECHO
VALLEY PARK.


&&

$$

LJENSEN

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KVEF [232224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 232224
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
324 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0814 PM HEAVY RAIN URSINE 37.98N 114.20W
10/22/2010 E0.00 INCH LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

RAINS CREATED AREAS OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON HIGHWAY
322 BETWEEN URSINE AND EAGLE VALLEY RESERVIOR. NO DEBRIS
NOTED.


&&

$$

LJENSEN

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KFSD [232224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 232224
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
524 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0514 PM HAIL 7 S ORANGE CITY 42.90N 96.04W
10/23/2010 E1.00 INCH PLYMOUTH IA PUBLIC


&&

$$

JCHAPMAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1973

ACUS11 KWNS 232214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232213
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-232315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232213Z - 232315Z

CONVECTION IS FINALLY DEVELOPING WITHIN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
DRIVEN PARTLY BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
WITH NEWD MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO SRN
MN. SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE
HAIL A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR
THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42479742 43649746 44169638 44019405 42549373 41769624
42479742

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KFSD [232214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 232214
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
514 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM HAIL 3 NW JEFFERSON 42.63N 96.61W
10/23/2010 E0.75 INCH UNION SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KWEISSER

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 706

WWUS20 KWNS 232212
SEL6
SPC WW 232212
TXZ000-240300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TYLER TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 704...WW 705...

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS NE TX...IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE LA/TX BORDER...INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL
AS DAMAGING WINDS...FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON

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KFWD [232140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 232140
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
440 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM HAIL 2 S CORSICANA 32.05N 96.46W
10/23/2010 E2.00 INCH NAVARRO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED VIA SPOTTER NETWORK.

$$

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KFWD [232133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 232133
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0359 PM TSTM WND GST HUBBARD 31.85N 96.80W
10/23/2010 M76 MPH HILL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO REPORT OF TREE LIMB DAMAGE IN TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.

$$

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KCYS [232131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 232131
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
331 PM MDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW N DIVIDE PEAK 41.30N 107.15W
10/23/2010 E9.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW WEBBER SPRINGS 41.16N 106.93W
10/23/2010 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW LITTLE SNAKE RIVER 41.07N 106.94W
10/23/2010 E10.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

LITTLE SNAKE RIVER SNOTEL

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW WHISKEY PARK 41.00N 106.91W
10/23/2010 E10.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH BRUSH CREEK 41.33N 106.50W
10/23/2010 E10.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW NORTH FRENCH CREEK 41.33N 106.38W
10/23/2010 E13.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW SAND LAKE 41.46N 106.28W
10/23/2010 E15.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SAND LAKE SNOTEL

1200 PM SNOW BROOKLYN LAKE 41.36N 106.23W
10/23/2010 E5.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

BROOKLYN LAKE SNOTEL

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 NE ROB ROY RESERVOIR 41.24N 106.23W
10/23/2010 E6.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL


&&

$$

JTL/HAHN

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KEAX [232129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 232129
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
429 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 1 W WINSTON 39.87N 94.16W
10/23/2010 E0.75 INCH DAVIESS MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

CUTTER

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KFWD [232125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 232125
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
425 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM HAIL 9 W RICHLAND 31.92N 96.58W
10/23/2010 E1.75 INCH NAVARRO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN PURDON.

$$

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KLSX [232120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 232120
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
420 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM HAIL LEWISTOWN 40.08N 91.81W
10/23/2010 E0.70 INCH LEWIS MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL


&&

$$

CARNEY

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KDMX [232111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 232111
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
411 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM HAIL CENTERVILLE 40.73N 92.87W
10/23/2010 E0.75 INCH APPANOOSE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

$$

JB

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KMFR [232104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 232104
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
204 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 S ETNA 41.37N 122.89W
10/23/2010 M0.40 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KDMX [232041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 232041
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 2 E MOUNT AYR 40.71N 94.20W
10/23/2010 E1.00 INCH RINGGOLD IA TRAINED SPOTTER

FEW QUARTERS MIXED IN WITH SMALLER HAIL...


&&

$$

JB

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 705

WWUS20 KWNS 232025
SEL5
SPC WW 232025
IAZ000-MOZ000-240300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF KNOXVILLE
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 704...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY
OF A WARM FRONT ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER SWD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY
WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A SWLY 40+ KT LLJ SHOULD
SUPPORT FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE VERTICALLY-VEERING
WIND PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972

ACUS11 KWNS 232009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232009
TXZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 704...

VALID 232009Z - 232215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 704 CONTINUES.

RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
NEAR/EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TEXAS...FOCUSED BENEATH A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
FIELD SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD...AND NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...BASED WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE A
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...BANDS OF DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD POOL NOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS... PARTICULARLY ONE NOW NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. THIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
AXIS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.

DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO
AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW AND 21-23Z ...AND
PROBABLY WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER/ WEAKENING
INHIBITION. AS THIS OCCURS...TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED
WITHIN A WEAK CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.

..KERR.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31349735 32119707 32579681 32969607 32529575 31939600
31199646 30469719 31349735

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KEPZ [232006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEPZ 232006
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
204 PM MDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL HORIZON CITY 31.68N 106.19W
10/20/2010 E0.75 INCH EL PASO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

3 MINUTES OF INTENSE DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT HORIZON
BLVD AND INTERSTATE 10.


&&

$$

GRZYWACZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231958
SWODY1
SPC AC 231956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...MID MO VALLEY TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB AND SRN MN HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL NEB TO THE N-W OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY...AND THUS A LOWER POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MEANWHILE...MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXTENDING INTO SERN SD/FAR SWRN MN IS RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINING ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN
NEB/WRN IA YET THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NWD/NEWD. SRN AND SERN MN
SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...WITH PART OF SERN MN BEING KEPT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
AS 16Z WRF-HRRR AND 12Z WRF-NMM 4 KM SUGGEST STORMS THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER IA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY REACH SERN MN PRIOR TO
WEAKENING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH NEWD EXTENT.

...NERN OK/NWRN AR/ERN KS/MO/SRN IA...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM NERN KS/NRN MO INTO SRN IA WHERE AIR
MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RANGES
FROM 40-50 KT. APPARENT MCV PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...NOW TRACKING
NEWD THROUGH SWRN MO...MAY BE AIDING RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY. FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR ERN KS
TO NRN MO...PLEASE SEE SPC MCD 1971.

15 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY AND 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY
HAVE BEEN ADDED SWD FROM NRN MO/NERN KS TO NERN OK/NWRN AR. STORMS
DEVELOPING NNEWD INTO THIS REGION FROM ERN OK/WRN AR WILL POSE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO
AROUND 40 KT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...OK/TX...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH WRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
BEING SHIFTED EWD GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS PER REGIONAL RADAR
AND SATELLITE DATA.

..PETERS.. 10/23/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/

...SRN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH NM...FAR WRN TX
AND NWRN MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WHILE
ACCELERATING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY.
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN A 30-40+ KT
SLY/SWLY LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE NWD FLUX OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING...THIS MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT THE INTENSIFICATION OF
ONGOING QLCS TODAY FROM ERN OK SWD/SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. ADDITIONAL
MORE DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WITHIN CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL REGIME OVER ERN TX. THE PRESENCE OF A 45-60 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK ATTENDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE SUSTAINED BELT OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/ WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING/LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD/NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AR AND SWRN MO
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM.

...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...

CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER WRN PARTS OF NEB/SD WILL PROGRESS EWD
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM NWRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY THIS EVENING.
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
OVER NEB/IA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER
PARTS OF KS INTO MO. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM NWRN KS EWD
THROUGH NWRN MO TO N OF STL.

STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE THE FLUX OF A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS/WRN MO NWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY
TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM FRONT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FROM NE OF SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA SWD
INTO NERN KS/NRN MO. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH MODERATELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. WHILE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS.

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KFWD [231941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 231941
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 32.80N 97.24W
10/23/2010 TARRANT TX TRAINED SPOTTER

A RESIDENCE ROOF WAS PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF NEAR BOWSPIRIT
LANE. TIME ESTIMATED.

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1971

ACUS11 KWNS 231913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231912
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231912Z - 232045Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN/NRN MO AS STORMS
INITIATE AND MATURE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO WILL ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT ROTATE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
THE REGION.

SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CELLS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING FROM LINN COUNTY KS
TO VERNON COUNTY MO ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...A FEW CELLS ARE INITIATING IN NW MO NEAR OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS AIRMASS IS ALSO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS COULD BE RATHER STRONG AS
THE CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...THE KANSAS CITY AND
SPRINGFIELD WSR-88D VWPS GENERALLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT THIS THREAT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL A STORM CLUSTER OR MCS
CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37689504 37889403 39159274 39689249 40269275 40749365
40919444 40489514 38979587 38119588 37689504

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KFWD [231822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 231822
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1248 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 32.82N 97.25W
10/23/2010 TARRANT TX AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN; NEAR 820/TRINITY BLVD.

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR DAY
2. THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY
AS AN OPEN WAVE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY AND
SRN EXTENT OF A TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WILL
CARVE OUT A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL REACH THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EVEN STRONGER
TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES AIDING THE EVOLUTION OF
A BROAD LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY 12Z
MONDAY.

...ERN PARTS OF SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MAINTAINED/TRANSPORTED THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING LEAD WAVE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THE ARKLATEX/ OZARKS
REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

SVR PROBABILITIES WILL RAMP-UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FARTHER W AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ACROSS OK/TX. ZONE OF PROBABLE DIABATIC
HEATING...MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOLING/MOISTENING
PROFILES ATTENDANT WITH THE PV-ANOMALY WILL BE FOR FAVORABLE STORM
INITIATION ALONG THE SURGING DRYLINE IN ERN OK AND NERN TX BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS AR/NRN LA. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
LIKELY AS ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES ORIENTED
LARGELY NORMAL TO DRYLINE. STRONG UVV...HOWEVER...SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO COMPLEX LINES WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES
WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR EVENING SVR WINDS.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/SRN
MO OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES GRADUALLY DECREASING WHERE
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MITIGATE EARLY DAY HEATING.
NONETHELESS...STRONG SHEAR AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST FROM PARTS OF SRN LA/SRN MS TO SRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ALONG
WRN EDGE OF RETREATING CP AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MIDLEVEL INVERSION /AROUND 700 MB/ THAT MAY TEND TO MAINTAIN A MORE
SHALLOW NATURE TO THE INITIAL CONVECTION. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG
SRN EXTENT OF A LEADING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE MID
MS/LOWER TN VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKENING
THE CAP FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

A SECOND PEAK IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WARMING DEWPOINTS AMIDST INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH CONTINUES
TO BOOST CONCERNS FOR TORNADOES AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

...CENTRAL MO/MID MS VLY...
SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED NNEWD INTO CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL
MO FOR PRIMARILY A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS REGION RESIDES BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NEUTRAL TO AT BEST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SRN
PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZES IN THE WAKE OF ANY ONGOING TSTMS SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MO WITH A CORRIDOR OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
/30-35 KT/ SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION/ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 10/23/2010

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 704

WWUS20 KWNS 231707
SEL4
SPC WW 231707
OKZ000-TXZ000-240100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF PARIS TEXAS
TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703. WATCH NUMBER 703 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 1205 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL STILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION INDICATES A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...MEAD

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KFWD [231659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 231659
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1158 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM HAIL VALLEY VIEW 33.48N 97.17W
10/23/2010 E0.75 INCH COOKE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT I-35 MILE MARKER 480

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1970

ACUS11 KWNS 231642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231642
TXZ000-OKZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...

VALID 231642Z - 231745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703
CONTINUES.

A NEW WW REPLACING WW 703 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE TROUGHING
LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME... BEFORE
PERHAPS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST TEXAS AS WELL. IN THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BASED WITHIN
AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TO THE EAST OF A SLOWLY EASTWARD
ADVANCING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL...HAS SLOWED BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION TO THIS POINT. AND THIS...COUPLED WITH
WARMING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES...APPEARS TO BE
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVENTUALLY...HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INTENSIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME
FRAME. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE EVOLUTION OF
AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31149942 32249849 34329729 34769660 33959453 32819503
31019623 30259843 31149942

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231620
SWODY1
SPC AC 231618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH NM...FAR WRN TX
AND NWRN MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WHILE
ACCELERATING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY.
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN A 30-40+ KT
SLY/SWLY LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE NWD FLUX OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING...THIS MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT THE INTENSIFICATION OF
ONGOING QLCS TODAY FROM ERN OK SWD/SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. ADDITIONAL
MORE DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WITHIN CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL REGIME OVER ERN TX. THE PRESENCE OF A 45-60 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK ATTENDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE SUSTAINED BELT OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/ WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING/LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD/NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AR AND SWRN MO
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM.

...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...

CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER WRN PARTS OF NEB/SD WILL PROGRESS EWD
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM NWRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY THIS EVENING.
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
OVER NEB/IA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER
PARTS OF KS INTO MO. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM NWRN KS EWD
THROUGH NWRN MO TO N OF STL.

STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE THE FLUX OF A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS/WRN MO NWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY
TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM FRONT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FROM NE OF SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA SWD
INTO NERN KS/NRN MO. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH MODERATELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. WHILE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS.

..MEAD/BROYLES.. 10/23/2010

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KKEY [231617]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 231617
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1217 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1109 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/23/2010 M40 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WAS RECORDED AT MOLASSES REEF LIGHT. THIS
GUST WAS RECORDED AS SHOWERS PASSED OVER THIS AUTOMATED
STATION.


&&

$$

NELSON

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KKEY [231557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 231557
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
10/23/2010 M43 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS...OR 43 MPH...FROM THE EAST WAS
RECORDED AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH NEARBY SHOWERS.


&&

$$

NELSON

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KSJT [231526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 231526
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1024 AM FLASH FLOOD SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.45W
10/23/2010 TOM GREEN TX AMATEUR RADIO

HIGH WATER RESCUE AT THE INTERSECTION OF HOWARD AND
FOREST PARK.


&&

$$

CWRIGHT

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KJAX [231512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231512
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1112 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM WILDFIRE 4 SSE JUNIPER SPRINGS 29.12N 81.71W
10/23/2010 MARION FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

FOREST SERVICE REPORTS THE BOMBING RANGE NINE WILDFIRE IN
THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST IS AT 1826 ACRES.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KMFR [231512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 231512
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 AM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.15N 123.62W
10/23/2010 M0.53 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL 0.53 INCHES


&&

$$

KEENE

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KSJT [231500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 231500
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM FLASH FLOOD SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.45W
10/23/2010 TOM GREEN TX AMATEUR RADIO

HIGH WATER RESCUE AT WEST CONCHO AND TAYLOR STREET.


&&

$$

SNAGLE

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KSJT [231447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 231447
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
947 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM FLASH FLOOD SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.45W
10/23/2010 TOM GREEN TX AMATEUR RADIO

HIGH WATER RESCUES AT THE INTERSECTION OF SUNSET DRIVE
AND SUL ROSS STREET.


&&

$$

SNAGLE

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KSJT [231444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 231444
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
944 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM FLASH FLOOD SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.45W
10/23/2010 TOM GREEN TX AMATEUR RADIO

3 FEET OF RUNNING WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON SOUTHWEST
BOULEVARD AT THE INTERSECTION OF LOOP 306.


&&

$$

SNAGLE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1969

ACUS11 KWNS 231428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231428
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-231600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AND PARTS OF ADJACENT NE TX...WRN AR...SE
KS AND SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231428Z - 231600Z

THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS SQUALL LINE IS
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST TEXAS REGION.
ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD BELT OF 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION
RELATIVE TO A SOMEWHAT NARROW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS IS SUCH THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO ADVECT INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHEAST OF MCALESTER INTO THE
FORT SMITH AND FAYETTEVILLE AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 17-18Z. SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER COMPLICATES MATTERS...BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE SOUTH OF TULSA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

..KERR.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33919723 35799628 37429476 36239353 34169495 33779589
33919723

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231302
SWODY1
SPC AC 231300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NNE INTO THE MID MO AND
MID MS VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN NEB UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...REACHING THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 12Z
SUN. AT THE SAME TIME...SRN STREAM IMPULSE OVER FAR W TX SHOULD
MOVE ENE ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS
AR/MO TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. BOTH FEATURES WILL POSE A RISK FOR SVR
TSTMS TO THEIR IMMEDIATE EAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE PLAINS.

...TX/SE OK...
TSTMS LIKELY WILL FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF
WRN...CNTRL AND N TX TODAY AS SRN IMPULSE ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY
RICH MOISTURE RETURN /WITH PW UP TO 1.50 INCHES/. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG DEVELOPING QLCS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM BY
AFTN AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS THE LWR LEVELS SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE NEAR LOW LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER
CNTRL AND NE TX.

CLOUDS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF MAIN IMPULSE WILL
LESSEN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. BUT COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS...LEWPS...AND SUPERCELLS
WITHIN THE QLCS GIVEN 40-50 KT SSW TO SWLY DEEP SHEAR. THESE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. TORNADOES ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INDEPENDENT STORMS FORMING ALONG
CONFLUENCE ZONE E OF QLCS.

THE SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVE E/NE INTO PARTS
OF NE TX AND SE OK BEFORE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES BEYOND
LOW LVL INSTABILITY AXIS.

...MID/LWR MO VLY TO MID MS VLY...
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF NEB/IA/KS
AND MO THIS PERIOD AS WRN NEB UPR LOW EDGES EWD. SATELLITE AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A COMPLEX STRUCTURE TO THE LOW...WITH
PERHAPS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING GENERALLY NEWD OVER THE
MID/LWR MO VLY ATTM. THE SFC PATTERN IS EQUALLY COMPLEX...WITH
SEVERAL AXES OF CONFLUENCE ROTATING AROUND NEARLY STNRY LOW OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLNS.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MUCH OF NEB...CNTRL AND ERN KS...WRN PARTS OF MO/IA AND SRN SD. SFC
HEATING ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS/STRATUS FIELD ...AND
ASCENT AHEAD OF MAIN PART OF UPR LOW...MAY SUPPORT SCTD AFTN STORMS
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXES IN NEB/SRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER IN
THE DAY OR THIS EVE IN IA/MO.

30-40KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IF/
WHEREVER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO FORM. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED RELATIVE TO THE SRN PLNS...COOLER MID LVL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PRESENT TO ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. SVR HAIL AND...GIVEN STRONG
LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES...TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/23/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1968

ACUS11 KWNS 231230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231229
TXZ000-OKZ000-231400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW...W-CENTRAL...NW...AND N-CENTRAL
TX...AND EXTREME SRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...

VALID 231229Z - 231400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703
CONTINUES.

ADDITIONALLY...AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND/EXPAND ENEWD
TOWARD PORTIONS SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX BETWEEN FSI-DFW DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS.

SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED AND STRENGTHENED IN SEVERAL SOLID TO BKN
BANDS ACROSS WRN/NRN PORTIONS WW AREA. RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELL
PRODUCED ESTIMATED 1-INCH HAIL IN TOM GREEN COUNTY AT 12Z...AND
FURTHER INSTANCED OF SVR HAIL ARE LIKELY AS CONVECTION EXPANDS OVER
REGION AMIDST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH SRN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX...TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN STEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THETAE
THAT CHARACTERIZED SFC MOIST SECTOR. 12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
DRYLINE NEAR 6S6-SWW-GAG LINE...WHICH MAY DRIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
NW TX AND WRN OK AS SWLY SFC FLOW SHIFTS WRN LIMITING STREAMLINES OF
MOISTURE FIELD EWD. MEANWHILE...MODIFIED DRT RAOB INDICATES THAT
BASAL INVERSION CHARACTERIZING MEX ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM 00Z
RAOB IS GONE..AND VERY LITTLE CINH IS EVIDENT IN FWD RAOB AS WELL.
MODIFICATIONS TO THESE AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO ACROSS WW AREA...A CONDITION
THAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS SUBTLE DIABATIC HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR
BENEATH CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND FROM MOST INTENSE DISCRETE DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS FROM
BOWS. TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED SUPERCELL OVER SRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS
WW...GIVEN POCKETS OF 200-300 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH COLLOCATED WITH
AREAS OF LITTLE OR NO CINH AND AT LEAST OCNL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORM
MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30030228 31600171 32480103 33829936 34329690 32989696
31899809 30709899 29570081 30030228

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KSJT [231213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 231213
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
712 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HAIL GRAPE CREEK 31.58N 100.55W
10/23/2010 E1.00 INCH TOM GREEN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

SNAGLE

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 703

WWUS20 KWNS 231027
SEL3
SPC WW 231027
TXZ000-231800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 525 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 115 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 75 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NRN TX AS SRN NM UPR IMPULSE
CONTINUES NEWD WITHIN LARGER SCALE CNTRL U.S. TROUGH. INCREASING
ASCENT ON WRN EDGE OF DEEP MOIST AXIS /WITH PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES/
MAY FOSTER SVR HAIL IN SOME STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. STORMS MAY EVOLVE
INTO SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLY
YIELDING DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...CORFIDI

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230841
SWOD48
SPC AC 230840

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY
WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO ERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES...UPPER OH
VLY AND PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NRN GULF BASIN BY FRIDAY. WRN END OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD THE NEXT MOBILE UPPER
TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS VARIED ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE PRIMARY
WAVE AND A POSSIBLE LEAD DISTURBANCE. SO WHILE RETURN FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO THE PLAINS...PREDICTABILITY WILL BE TOO
LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE WEATHER AREA.

..RACY.. 10/23/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1967

ACUS11 KWNS 230755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230754
TXZ000-231030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NW TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230754Z - 231030Z

TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AND GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH REMAINDER
PRE-DAWN HOURS...MOVING GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPPING
INVERSION AND PRESENCE OF SOME NEARLY SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCELS IN FCST SOUNDINGS.

STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN
NM SWD ACROSS CHIHUAHUA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PIVOTING EWD-ENEWD
THROUGH BASE OF BROADER CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
BAROCLINIC-LEAF CLOUD SIGNATURE ACROSS PORTIONS W/CENTRAL TX
ATTM...EVIDENCE OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION
ALOFT THAT WILL OVERSPREAD W AND CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE...SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
CENTRAL OK SWWD THROUGH SPS/SWW AREAS. WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY DRYLINE
IS DRAWN FROM W-CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE TO NEAR
SWW-6R6 LINE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATION ALONG DRYLINE AND BENEATH
BAROCLINIC LEAF...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NEWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...WITH
SOME RELATIVE MAXIMA IN MLCAPE AND WEAKNESSES IN MLCINH NEAR SFC
MOIST AXES AS DEPICTED ON ACCOMPANYING GRAPHIC. THOSE
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH VWP DATA IN WARM SECTOR...INDICATE VEERING
FLOW WITH HEIGHT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE BENEATH BROAD/35-45 KT
LLJ...ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. MIXED MODES
ARE PROBABLE INITIALLY...TRENDING TOWARD LINEAR/CLUSTERED WITH
TIME...GIVEN ALIGNMENT OF WINDS IN BUOYANT LAYER NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THAT SEGMENT OF DRYLINE WHERE CONVECTION IS FORMING AND FRONTAL ZONE
TO ITS NNE.

..EDWARDS.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30030228 31740089 32880045 33709974 33609815 32299789
31629804 30699876 29690086 30030228

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230719
SWODY3
SPC AC 230719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
FIRST STRONG AUTUMN UPPER JET WILL CASCADE INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VLY
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. A DOWNSTREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VLY
EARLY MONDAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

...OH/LWR TN VLY SWD TO ERN GULF COAST AND EWD TO CAROLINA COAST...
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LEAD MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT ENHANCED SLY LLVL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL TRANSPORT MODEST GULF MOISTURE NWD
INTO AREAS W OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK
THERMAL BUOYANCY. MORNING CONVECTION MAY MITIGATE HEATING...BUT A
NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY
OCCUR FROM PARTS OF ERN KY SWD TO THE ERN GULF COAST. RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER E...GULF STREAM MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC/NC MONDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE GRAZES
THE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GIVEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY...A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITH
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID-MS VLY/OZARKS...
RAPID ATMOSPHERIC ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN STRONG SLY LLVL FLOW AS THE 160 KT
250 MB JET DIGS INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. OCCLUDING LOW WILL MOVE
INTO SRN CANADA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING NNW TO THE E OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD TO
THE WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
ILL-TIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH/WITHOUT LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR LATE
IN THE PERIOD. BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL EXIST FROM ERN IA/WRN IL SW INTO NE OK/NRN AR. STRONG
AMBIENT WINDS ALREADY PRESENT MAY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR
A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 10/23/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230550
SWODY2
SPC AC 230550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY
AS AN OPEN WAVE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY...NOW
ARRIVING ON THE CNTRL CA COAST...WILL CARVE OUT A FORMIDABLE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOBILE
FEATURE WILL REACH THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EVEN STRONGER
TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES.

...ERN PARTS OF SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VLY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LWR/MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
BE MAINTAINED/TRANSPORTED THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS
VLY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING LEAD WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY EARLY SUNDAY.

SVR PROBABILITIES WILL RAMP-UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FARTHER W AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ACROSS OK/TX. ZONE OF PROBABLE DIABATIC
HEATING...MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOLING/MOISTENING
PROFILES ATTENDANT WITH THE PV-ANOMALY WILL BE FAVORABLE STORM
INITIATION ALONG THE SURGING DRYLINE IN ERN OK AND NERN TX BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE LIKELY AS ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF WLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES ORIENTED LARGELY NORMAL TO DRYLINE. STRONG
UVV...HOWEVER...SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO COMPLEX LINES WITH
EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR EVENING SVR
WINDS.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/SRN
MO OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES GRADUALLY DECREASING WHERE
CLOUDS/PCPN MITIGATE EARLY DAY HEATING. NONETHELESS...STRONG SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT NOCTURNAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG WRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING CP
AIR MASS OVER THE LWR MS VLY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE IN WARMING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT
AMIDST INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH...BOOSTING CONCERN FOR TORNADOES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

...MID/UPR MS VLY...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MAINLY REVOLVES AROUND UNCERTAINTY ON AIR MASS
RECOVERY FROM EARLY DAY CONVECTION. AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SWLY LLVL FLOW WILL RESPOND
WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASED STORMS FROM ERN IA/SWRN WI
SWD INTO IL/MO. THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE AND LATER OUTLOOKS WILL HAVE TO
ADDRESS INSTABILITY CONCERNS FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK
UPGRADE.

..RACY.. 10/23/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230549
SWODY1
SPC AC 230548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO IA...

...SYNOPSIS...

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EASE INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH A BIMODAL
STRUCTURE EXPECTED TO FOCUS SEVERE ACROSS TX AND OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NRN-MOST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER BY MID
AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOWER LATITUDE FEATURE OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
TRANSLATE INTO CNTRL/S TX. EACH OF THESE FEATURES...WITHIN THE
LONGER WAVE...SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH EITHER SYSTEM.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

EARLY THIS MORNING...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND THIS ACTIVITY IS
SPREADING NNEWD INTO ERN NEB/IA. WITH TIME IT APPEARS THE SFC WARM
FRONT WILL RETREAT TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL NEB...NEWD ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO WRN IA. 00Z NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SFC HEATING INTO WRN IA THAN THE GFS AND IF THIS OCCURS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROVE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS
AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THAN A WEAKER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH
THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A BELT FROM TX
INTO IL AT PEAK HEATING...SFC-6KM DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
40KT WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST READINGS IN THE MID 70S
WILL FREE SFC-BASED PARCELS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...WARM ADVECTION MAY ALSO
DRIVE WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WHERE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE ALSO
FEASIBLE. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG
WITH SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND STRONG-VEERING WIND
PROFILES A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

...TX...

LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS TOWARD THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENT BY THICKER
CLOUDINESS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ASCENT WHEN IT OVERSPREADS THE WRN EDGE OF
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SANDERSON-SJT-ABI.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND QUICKLY INTO AN ELONGATED MCS BEFORE IT
SPREADS INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW
MANY SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
STORMS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOCUSED
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. FOR THIS REASON
TORNADOES MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EVEN
SO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...AND OF
COURSE WITH ANY PRECEDING SUPERCELLS.

..DARROW/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/23/2010

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KBOU [230428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 230428
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1028 PM MDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM SNOW BERTHOUD PASS 39.80N 105.78W
10/22/2010 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
10/22/2010 M1.0 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FREDIN

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