SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231642
TXZ000-OKZ000-231745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL...NRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...
VALID 231642Z - 231745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703
CONTINUES.
A NEW WW REPLACING WW 703 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.
STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE TROUGHING
LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME... BEFORE
PERHAPS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST TEXAS AS WELL. IN THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BASED WITHIN
AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TO THE EAST OF A SLOWLY EASTWARD
ADVANCING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL...HAS SLOWED BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION TO THIS POINT. AND THIS...COUPLED WITH
WARMING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES...APPEARS TO BE
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVENTUALLY...HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INTENSIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME
FRAME. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE EVOLUTION OF
AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR.. 10/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31149942 32249849 34329729 34769660 33959453 32819503
31019623 30259843 31149942
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