KLUB [090444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLUB 090444
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1044 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WNW DENVER CITY 33.01N 102.94W
02/08/2009 M60 MPH YOAKUM TX MESONET

MEASURED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET

0725 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WNW DENVER CITY 33.01N 102.94W
02/08/2009 M69 MPH YOAKUM TX MESONET

REPORTED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET.

0739 PM TSTM WND GST FRIONA 34.64N 102.72W
02/08/2009 M70 MPH PARMER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT KVII SCHOOLNET SITE AT FRIONA HIGH SCHOOL

0825 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON 33.73N 102.20W
02/08/2009 M58 MPH HOCKLEY TX MESONET

REPORTED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET.

0825 PM TSTM WND GST OLTON 34.18N 102.14W
02/08/2009 M68 MPH LAMB TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT KAMC WEATHER STATION IN OLTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900278 LUB0900274 LUB0900275 LUB0900276 LUB0900277

$$

MCZ

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KAMA [090433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 090433
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 PM TSTM WND GST 5 ENE HEREFORD 34.86N 102.33W
02/08/2009 M61 MPH DEAF SMITH TX AWOS

0830 PM TSTM WND GST DAWN 34.91N 102.20W
02/08/2009 E60 MPH DEAF SMITH TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0852 PM TSTM WND GST BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.06W
02/08/2009 M68 MPH POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

0852 PM TSTM WND GST 8 S AMARILLO 35.09N 101.82W
02/08/2009 E65 MPH RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA

I 27 AT MCCORMICK RD. RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0853 PM TSTM WND GST BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.06W
02/08/2009 E60 MPH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED THROUGH THE AMARILLO EOC

0901 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NW AMARILLO 35.24N 101.87W
02/08/2009 M65 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LORENZO DE ZAVALA MIDDLE SCHOOL

0902 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NW AMARILLO 35.26N 101.89W
02/08/2009 E60 MPH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0910 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N AMARILLO 35.30N 101.82W
02/08/2009 M58 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N AMARILLO 35.22N 101.82W
02/08/2009 POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DOWNED POWER LINES NEAR DOWNTOWN POST OFFICE

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SSW AMARILLO 35.10N 101.87W
02/08/2009 RANDALL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DOWNPOWER LINES AT CLAUDE HIGHWAY AND WASHINGTON

0914 PM TSTM WND GST 17 NNW AMARILLO 35.43N 101.93W
02/08/2009 M63 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LAHEY CREEK SCHOOL NET SITE.

0916 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ENE AMARILLO 35.22N 101.72W
02/08/2009 M59 MPH POTTER TX ASOS

0919 PM TSTM WND GST 8 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.68W
02/08/2009 M64 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGHLAND PARK SCHOOL NET SITE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901013 AMA0901014 AMA0901016 AMA0901018 AMA0901015
AMA0901017 AMA0901019 AMA0901020 AMA0901021 AMA0901023 AMA0901024
AMA0901026 AMA0901025

$$

CK

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KMFR [090407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 090407
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
807 PM PST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0806 PM HEAVY SNOW ESE MOUNT SHASTA 41.32N 122.31W
02/08/2009 M1.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWING HARD AND CONTINUOUSLY

&&

$$

SVEN

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KABQ [090404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 090404
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
904 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 10 WNW ALBUQUERQUE 35.17N 106.79W
02/08/2009 M48.00 MPH BERNALILLO NM AWOS

0408 PM HAIL 7 SSE TAIBAN 34.35N 103.96W
02/08/2009 M0.75 INCH DE BACA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0421 PM SNOW 7 ESE CHUPADERO 35.79N 105.80W
02/08/2009 E2.0 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

SANTA FE SKI AREA.

0435 PM HAIL 5 E TOLAR 34.45N 103.84W
02/08/2009 M1.00 INCH ROOSEVELT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0443 PM HAIL 2 E HOUSE 34.65N 103.86W
02/08/2009 E0.75 INCH QUAY NM BROADCAST MEDIA

0500 PM SNOW 9 WSW CUBA 35.95N 107.09W
02/08/2009 M1.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0554 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CANNON AFB 34.43N 103.07W
02/08/2009 M62.00 MPH CURRY NM ASOS

CANNON AFB RUNWAY SENSOR

0555 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N CANNON AFB 34.43N 103.07W
02/08/2009 M53.00 MPH CURRY NM ASOS

0555 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CANNON AFB 34.39N 103.31W
02/08/2009 M63.00 MPH CURRY NM ASOS

0600 PM TSTM WND GST CLOVIS 34.41N 103.20W
02/08/2009 E60.00 MPH CURRY NM BROADCAST MEDIA

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW TEXICO 34.39N 103.31W
02/08/2009 M58.00 MPH CURRY NM AWOS

0830 PM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
02/08/2009 M1.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

DPORTER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0072

ACUS11 KWNS 090348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090348
OKZ000-TXZ000-090515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NW TX THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 090348Z - 090515Z

SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF W TX AND
APPROACH NW TX AND WRN OK BY 06Z. WW 06 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
04Z DUE TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE LINE. ANY
FUTURE WW DOWNSTREAM WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR AMARILLO SWD TO JUST WEST OF SAN
ANGELO IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
LINE REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH VERY LIMITED OR NO INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ATTENDING A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PROCESS OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND
MOISTENING. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINEAR
MCS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LINE COULD
REINTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES NW TX INTO WRN OK AND INTERCEPTS AXIS OF
SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE. DUE TO THE LIMITING FACTOR IMPOSED BY THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...CONFIDENCE IN A FUTURE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 02/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 31600063 33760060 35900096 36059983 35369936 33479926
31769978 31600063

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KAMA [090327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090327
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
927 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 PM TSTM WND GST 8 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.68W
02/08/2009 M64 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGHLAND PARK SCHOOL NET SITE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901025

$$

LG

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KLUB [090321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 090321
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
921 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM TSTM WND GST OLTON 34.18N 102.14W
02/08/2009 M68 MPH LAMB TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT KAMC WEATHER STATION IN OLTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900277

$$

SRC

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KAMA [090320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090320
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
920 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0914 PM TSTM WND GST 17 NNW AMARILLO 35.43N 101.93W
02/08/2009 M63 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LAHEY CREEK SCHOOL NET SITE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901024

$$

LG

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KAMA [090319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090319
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
918 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SSW AMARILLO 35.10N 101.87W
02/08/2009 RANDALL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DOWNPOWER LINES AT CLAUDE HIGHWAY AND WASHINGTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901023

$$

JOHNSON

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KAMA [090318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090318
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
918 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0918 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ENE AMARILLO 35.22N 101.72W
02/08/2009 M59 MPH POTTER TX ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901022

$$

CK

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KAMA [090317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090317
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
917 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N AMARILLO 35.22N 101.82W
02/08/2009 POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

DOWNED POWER LINES NEAR DOWNTOWN POST OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901021

$$

JOHNSON

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KAMA [090316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090316
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
916 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N AMARILLO 35.30N 101.82W
02/08/2009 M58 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901020

$$

LG

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KAMA [090307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090307
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
906 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0902 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NW AMARILLO 35.26N 101.89W
02/08/2009 E60 MPH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901019

$$

LG

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KAMA [090305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090305
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
905 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM TSTM WND GST 8 S AMARILLO 35.09N 101.82W
02/08/2009 E65 MPH RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA

I 27 AT MCCORMICK RD. RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901018

$$

JOHNSON

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KAMA [090305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090305
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
905 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NW AMARILLO 35.24N 101.87W
02/08/2009 M65 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LORENZO DE ZAVALA MIDDLE SCHOOL

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901017

$$

CK

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KAMA [090302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090302
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
902 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM TSTM WND GST BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.06W
02/08/2009 M68 MPH POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901016

$$

JOHNSON

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KAMA [090255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090255
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
855 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0853 PM TSTM WND GST BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.06W
02/08/2009 E60 MPH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED THROUGH THE AMARILLO EOC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901015

$$

JOHNSON

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KLUB [090239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 090239
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
839 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON 33.73N 102.20W
02/08/2009 M58 MPH HOCKLEY TX MESONET

REPORTED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900276

$$

SRC

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KAMA [090239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090239
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
839 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM TSTM WND GST DAWN 34.91N 102.20W
02/08/2009 E60 MPH DEAF SMITH TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901014

$$

CK

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KAMA [090231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 090231
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
831 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 PM TSTM WND GST 5 ENE HEREFORD 34.86N 102.33W
02/08/2009 M61 MPH DEAF SMITH TX AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901013

$$

JOHNSON

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KVEF [090217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 090217
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
616 PM PST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BARSTOW-DAGGETT AP 34.85N 116.79W
02/08/2009 M43 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

&&

$$

F

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0071

ACUS11 KWNS 090200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090159
TXZ000-090300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 090159Z - 090300Z

SQUALL LINE WILL APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 6 BY 03Z. THESE STORMS
ALONG WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST BEYOND 03Z. WW 06 MIGHT NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR AMA
AND LBB AREAS TO COVER THIS THREAT.

DESPITE THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND STRONG CAPPING IN WARM SECTOR...STRONG FORCING
ATTENDING THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET
AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
FORWARD PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST ACROSS WRN TX BEYOND THE CURRENT WW.

..DIAL.. 02/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32150135 34340152 35280137 35190064 33380044 32650058
32150135

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KABQ [090151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 090151
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
651 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
02/08/2009 M1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

DPORTER

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KLUB [090148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 090148
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
748 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 PM TSTM WND GST FRIONA 34.64N 102.72W
02/08/2009 M70 MPH PARMER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT KVII SCHOOLNET SITE AT FRIONA HIGH SCHOOL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900275

$$

SRC

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KLUB [090131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 090131
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
731 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WNW DENVER CITY 33.01N 102.94W
02/08/2009 M69 MPH YOAKUM TX MESONET

REPORTED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900274

$$

SRC

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KLUB [090126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 090126
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
725 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WNW DENVER CITY 33.01N 102.94W
02/08/2009 M60 MPH YOAKUM TX MESONET

MEASURED BY TEXAS TECH MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB0900273

$$

MCZ

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KMAF [090123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 090123
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
723 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW FORT STOCKTON 30.91N 102.91W
02/08/2009 M59 MPH PECOS TX ASOS

&&

$$

DH

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KABQ [090122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 090122
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
621 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW TEXICO 34.39N 103.31W
02/08/2009 M58.00 MPH CURRY NM AWOS

&&

$$

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KABQ [090121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KABQ 090121
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
621 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CANNON AFB 34.43N 103.07W
02/08/2009 M62.00 MPH CURRY NM ASOS

CANNON AFB RUNWAY SENSOR

0555 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N CANNON AFB 34.43N 103.07W
02/08/2009 M53.00 MPH CURRY NM ASOS

0555 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CANNON AFB 34.39N 103.31W
02/08/2009 M63.00 MPH CURRY NM ASOS

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION FROM CLOVIS TO CANNON AIR FORCE BASE.

$$

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KABQ [090112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 090112
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
612 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST CLOVIS 34.41N 103.20W
02/08/2009 E60.00 MPH CURRY NM BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

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KABQ [090105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 090105
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM HAIL 7 SSE TAIBAN 34.35N 103.96W
02/08/2009 M0.75 INCH DE BACA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM SNOW 9 WSW CUBA 35.95N 107.09W
02/08/2009 M1.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0554 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW TEXICO 34.43N 103.07W
02/08/2009 M62.00 MPH CURRY NM OTHER FEDERAL

CANNON AFB RUNWAY SENSOR

0555 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 NNW TEXICO 34.43N 103.07W
02/08/2009 M53.00 MPH CURRY NM AWOS

0555 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW TEXICO 34.43N 103.07W
02/08/2009 M63.00 MPH CURRY NM AWOS

&&

$$

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KMAF [090105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 090105
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
705 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW FORT STOCKTON 30.91N 102.91W
02/08/2009 M64.00 MPH PECOS TX ASOS

&&

$$

DH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0070

ACUS11 KWNS 090103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090103
TXZ000-NMZ000-090230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NM AND WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6...

VALID 090103Z - 090230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6 CONTINUES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF WW VALID TIME...THOUGH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM THROUGH FAR W TX
NEAR FORT STOCKTON. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25 KT. 00Z RAOB DATA
FROM MIDLAND AND AMARILLO SHOW SCANT INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS...CAPPED BY AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BASED NEAR 700 MB. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. THE
RESULTING STRONG DEEP CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND REMOVE THE CAP...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING
A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
ACROSS WRN TX.

STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. AN INCREASE IN THE
SWLY COMPONENT OF WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS LIKELY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EWD ACCELERATION
OF THE SQUALL LINE. GRADUAL DECREASE IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND POTENTIAL FOR EWD ACCELERATION OF THE LINE WILL HELP
SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING OR LEWP STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 02/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 31080295 31910314 33640331 35180353 35750334 35970255
35650182 34280158 32960155 31170190 31080295

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090057
SWODY1
SPC AC 090054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM SRN
NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA THIS EVENING...REACHING NW TX TO SW KS BY 12Z
MONDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVERNIGHT...
REACHING NW KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
CYCLOGENESIS...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NWD INTO SRN NEB/NRN MO BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF
TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR ERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED EAST OF AN ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THIS OCCURRED AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH THE
EJECTING SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO UPPER TROUGH SPREAD EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKER WITH EWD EXTENT
INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING. 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STRONGER CAP
ACROSS WEST TX WHEN COMPARED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID FOR 00Z.
HOWEVER...UPPER FORCING INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /150+ M PER 12 HRS AT 500 MB/ WITH THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAK INSTABILITY
AND WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN SQUALL LINE STRUCTURE.
ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS W TX THIS EVENING INTO NRN TX...WRN
OK AND SRN KS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE HAIL SHOULD BE ONE OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY
OVER ERN NM...THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS WITHIN LLJ
TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE GROUND WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. DESPITE
WEAK INSTABILITY...THIS OUTLOOK WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /PER STRENGTHENING
LLJ/ IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS.

..PETERS.. 02/09/2009

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KABQ [090003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 090003
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL 2 E HOUSE 34.65N 103.86W
02/08/2009 E0.75 INCH QUAY NM BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

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KABQ [082348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 082348
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 PM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 10 WNW ALBUQUERQUE 35.17N 106.79W
02/08/2009 M48.00 MPH BERNALILLO NM AWOS

0435 PM HAIL 5 E TOLAR 34.45N 103.84W
02/08/2009 M1.00 INCH ROOSEVELT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 6

WWUS20 KWNS 082314
SEL6
SPC WW 082314
NMZ000-TXZ000-090400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WINK TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ERN NM. WITH
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THE INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EWD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.

...HALES

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KMAF [082309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 082309
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM HAIL CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.24W
02/08/2009 E0.88 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

FALLING AT ORCHARD AND CANAL STREET.

&&

$$

DH

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KLKN [082121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 082121
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
121 PM PST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 29 S KINGSTON 38.78N 117.17W
02/07/2009 M1.0 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

SMOKEY VALLEY COOP - 5647 FEET MSL

0720 AM SNOW 20 WSW KINGSTON 39.06N 117.41W
02/07/2009 M1.3 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

REESE RIVER COOP - 6413 FEET MSL

0800 AM SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
02/07/2009 M4.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MCGILL COOP - 6270 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 28 SSW PINTO SUMMIT 39.10N 116.20W
02/07/2009 M7.5 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

INDIAN CREEK RANCH COOP - 7460 FEET MSL

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE ELY 39.30N 114.83W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ELY AIRPORT SNOW OBSERVER - 6242 FEET MSL - TOTAL SINCE
4PM FRIDAY

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NE EUREKA 39.56N 115.84W
02/07/2009 E7.4 INCH EUREKA NV MESONET

DIAMOND PEAK SNOTEL - 7400 FEET MSL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 16 WSW CRESCENT VALLEY 40.36N 116.86W
02/07/2009 E7.3 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

LEWIS PEAK SNOTEL - 8000 FEET MSL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 31 S LUND 38.41N 115.01W
02/07/2009 M8.5 INCH NYE NV PUBLIC

MT MEADOWS RANCH - ELEVATION UNKNOWN

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
02/07/2009 E7.0 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

BIG CREEK SUM SNOTEL - 8700 FEET MSL

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 WNW RUTH 39.36N 115.33W
02/08/2009 M8.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MOORMAN RANCH COOP - 6539 FEET MSL

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW EUREKA 39.52N 115.96W
02/08/2009 M13.5 INCH EUREKA NV CO-OP OBSERVER

EUREKA COOP - 6430 FEET MSL

0700 AM SNOW S RUBY LAKE 40.20N 115.49W
02/08/2009 M5.9 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUBY LAKE NWR COOP - 6019 FEET MSL

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W BAKER 39.01N 114.22W
02/08/2009 M16.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK COOP - 6850 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
02/08/2009 M9.9 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUTH COOP - 6858 FEET MSL

0830 AM HEAVY SNOW TONOPAH 38.10N 117.25W
02/08/2009 M6.3 INCH NYE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORT - 6047 FEET MSL

0830 AM SNOW AUSTIN 39.48N 117.07W
02/08/2009 M2.0 INCH LANDER NV TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORT - 6605 FEET MSL

0830 AM SNOW 1 NW LUND 38.87N 115.02W
02/08/2009 M4.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

LUND COOP - 5546 FEET MSL

&&

$$

RCM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0069

ACUS11 KWNS 082052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082052
TXZ000-NMZ000-082315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...E-CENTRAL AND SERN NM...SMALL
PART OF W TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082052Z - 082315Z

TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL THROUGH SERN NM...IN BROKEN BELT FROM VICINITY ABQ SSEWD
ACROSS TORRANCE/LINCOLN/SWRN CHAVES COUNTY...PERHAPS SWD ACROSS TX
LINE W OF FST. WHILE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MATURE SUFFICIENTLY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST BRIEF EPISODE OF STG GUSTS OR HAIL...MOST
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SVR RISK SHOULD BE FROM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
SERN NM...AS IT FILLS AND MOVES NEWD TOWARD TX BORDER.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW OVER W-CENTRAL CO...WITH
OCCLUSION TRIPLE-POINT LOW NEAR ABQ. WARM FRONT ARCS FROM LATTER LOW
SEWD ACROSS TORRANCE COUNTY THEN NEWD BETWEEN DHT-CAO...TO BETWEEN
EHA-SPD. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THICK LOW CLOUD COVER
THAT IS ERODING SLOWLY FROM S-N. WARM FRONTAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NWD IN STEP WITH MIXING RELATED CLOUD EROSION DURING REMAINDER
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY EXTENDING SSEWD FROM
LOW TO JUST E OF ELP -- WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM.
DEVELOPING DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM WRN PECOS COUNTY TX NWWD-NWD
OVER NM COUNTIES EDDY...WRN CHAVES...WRN DE BACA...AND WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IGNORING APPARENTLY ERRONEOUS
HIGH SFC DEW POINT ANOMALY AT CVS...SFC MOIST AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED
BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S F -- IS DRAWN JUST E OF DRYLINE AND WARM
FRONT ALONG LINE FROM FST-ROW-TCC. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN
CLUSTERS OF TCU FROM SRN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY SSEWD ACROSS LINCOLN/SWRN
EDDY COUNTIES. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THOSE AREAS OF TCU...AND
MOVE INTO MOISTENING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER
BETWEEN INK-CVS-TCC.

EARLY MODE MAY BE BRIEFLY SUPERCELLULAR WITH HAIL LIKELY...GIVEN
55-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC/NAM-KF SOUNDINGS
AND IMPLIED FROM MODIFIED HDX VWP DATA. HOWEVER...STG COMPONENT OF
DEEP SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL TO ALIGNMENT OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND
OBSERVED BACKING WITH HEIGHT AT HDX...SUGGESTS QUICK EVOLUTION TO
LINEAR MODE AND MORE WIND POTENTIAL WITH MRGL SVR HAIL. STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST
MLCAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG IN SMALL PORTION OF SERN NM FOR A FEW
HOURS...CORRESPONDING TO SFC THETAE MAX...WITH 250-800 J/KG MORE
COMMON ACROSS NM S OF I-40 AND N OF I-10.

..EDWARDS.. 02/08/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31120513 32240486 33570537 34250570 34510530 34770457
35580347 34950286 32110295 31280380 31050468 31120513

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081951
SWODY1
SPC AC 081948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SSEWD ALONG
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
ENEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NRN MEXICO TODAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LOCATED JUST WEST OF EL PASO ON THE NRN END OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED DRY SLOT. THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO ERN NM BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING. CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO FIRST
INITIATE ALONG THIS BAND OF ASCENT IN NERN NM WITH CONVECTION
QUICKLY EXPANDING SWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY...MOVING EWD ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS. 1) THE RUC IS CURRENTLY ANALYZING A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
OVER SE NM WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MAY EXPAND EWD INTO PARTS
OF WEST TX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 2) THE RUC SHOWS STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 70 KT/ OVER THE WRN HALF OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. 3) A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED
OVER WCNTRL TX. THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND NNWWD STRENGTHENING TO
ABOUT 60 KT THIS EVENING. AS THE STRONG ASCENT COMES OUT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A GENERAL LINE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS WEST TX...SMALLER SCALE LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
MORE CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE NM-TX STATE-LINE WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER AND TEMPS WILL BE
COLD ALOFT NEAR THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF A VIGOROUS
SQUALL-LINE CAN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST
AS WRN OK LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 02/08/2009

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KVEF [081854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 081854
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1053 AM PST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 7 N I-40 AT FORT ROCK 35.30N 113.37W
02/08/2009 M4.0 INCH MOHAVE AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JH

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KABQ [081812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 081812
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1112 AM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 SSW FORT STANTON 33.47N 105.54W
02/06/2009 M44.00 MPH LINCOLN NM AWOS

GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

0955 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW FORT STANTON 33.47N 105.54W
02/06/2009 M58.00 MPH LINCOLN NM AWOS

&&

$$

GUYER

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KPSR [081759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 081759
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1058 AM MST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 AM HAIL 5 WNW APACHE JUNCTION 33.44N 111.63W
02/08/2009 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

PEA SIZE HAIL IN EAST MESA NEAR BROWN AND ELLSWORTH

&&

$$

AJ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081717
SWODY2
SPC AC 081715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A LINE
OF CONVECTION ONGOING FROM SRN KS SWD ACROSS WCNTRL OK INTO CNTRL
TX. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST WITH THIS LINE MONDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT QUICKLY NEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION WEAKENING
IN THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A POWERFUL 50 TO 70
KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO THE UPPER-MIDWEST. IN SPITE OF
STRONG SLY FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AND SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S F ACROSS MOST OF THE SEE TEXT AREA.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
ERN KS...ERN NEB...NRN MO AND IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE VERY FOCUSED WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET
SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
MAY BE MINIMAL WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 500 MB
TEMPS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE
COLD RANGING FROM -20 TO -22 C. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR COULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 02/08/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081623
SWODY1
SPC AC 081620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH BASE
OF LOW INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND INTO OK. MEANWHILE...RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST KS
WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AFTER DARK OVER
TX/OK. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES THE MARGINAL NATURE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL PRIMARY UPPER
FORCING ARRIVES. A NARROW AXIS OF HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NM WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN 22-00Z. THIS AREA WILL
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL DUE TO STEEPER LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

BACKED MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK
EVOLUTION TO A SQUALL LINE BY 00Z ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER...WITH
ACTIVITY RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST TX AND WESTERN OK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIMITED WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...POTENT UPPER FORCING /150+ M 12H HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB/ AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT
850 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
THE LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

..HART.. 02/08/2009

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KVEF [081332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 081332
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
532 AM PST SUN FEB 08 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM FLASH FLOOD 17 WSW VIDAL JUNCTION 34.08N 114.85W
02/07/2009 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 62 WAS CLOSED FROM STATE ROUTE 177 TO VIDAL
JUNCTION DUE TO FLOODING AND DEBIS IN THE ROADWAY.

1000 PM HEAVY SNOW MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.62W
02/07/2009 M16.0 INCH CLARK NV FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

16 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS MEASURED AT THE MOUNT
CHARLESTION FIRE STATION IN KYLE CANYON.

1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 WNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.31N 115.70W
02/07/2009 M17.0 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

A CO-OP OBSERVER IN LEE CANYON REPORTED A SNOW TOTAL OF
17 INCHES.

&&

$$

ASG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081250
SWODY1
SPC AC 081247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AN INITIALLY CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/NRN
BAJA WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT EWD TO NM/W TX BY THIS
EVENING AND NEWD OVER NW TX/OK/KS OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT OVER CA/ORE. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE ACROSS ERN NM INTO
ERN CO...WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TONIGHT FROM
E CENTRAL CO INTO NW KS AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A VAST
PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION THROUGH THE GULF/CARIBBEAN BASINS. A SLOW
CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM NELY TO ELY ACROSS THE ERN
GULF AND ASSOCIATED GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS NOW SUPPORTING
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. LESSER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS FROM SRN OK INTO CENTRAL TX. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWWD TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
BENEATH A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF 45-50 F
DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 60S
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG/
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE TX/NM BORDER.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
ERN NM AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF DEEP
ASCENT SPREAD E OF THE MOUNTAINS. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...AS WELL AS STRONG LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND A PRONOUNCED CAP E OF THE FRONT...SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK
TRANSITION TO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THE
SQUALL LINE WILL THEN SWEEP EWD ACROSS W/NW TX...WRN OK...AND SW KS
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...STRONG AMBIENT FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS COULD BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GROUND WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE OF
STORMS.

..THOMPSON.. 02/08/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 081000
SWOD48
SPC AC 080959

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
APPALACHIANS THIS COMING WEDNESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
CARRY OVER INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. MREF MEMBERS SUGGEST A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 5OS SURFACE DEW POINTS...TO EXTEND
AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. AND...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...PERHAPS AS
FAR AS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
DAY. STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
STRONG MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW /GREATER THAN 50 KT/ CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES BECOME DECREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME MORE DISCRETE IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAKER MID-LEVEL FORCING/GREATER INHIBITION.
BUT...PRE-FRONTAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST.

THEREAFTER...UPSTREAM WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PROMINENT BELT
OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS COMING WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BUT...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS TOO LOW TO
CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE ADDITIONAL AREAS...DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY
LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL DATA AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.

..KERR.. 02/08/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080831
SWODY3
SPC AC 080828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE AFTN/TUE NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTS OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS STATES. EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...OUT OF
BROADER SCALE TROUGHING WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...IS PROGGED...AS YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. IN
THE WAKE OF A PRIOR SYSTEM...LIKELY STILL GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR WEAK TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

ASIDE FROM SOME CONTINUING VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE SPEED AT WHICH THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST CONCERNS LINGERING DOUBTS ABOUT THE
QUALITY OF THE GULF RETURN FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THIS PRECLUDES AN
OUTLOOK OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAT COULD ACCOMPANY A
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OF THIS STRENGTH...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL 850 JET STREAK...BENEATH A 90-100+ KT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK. AND...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY INDICATED COULD STILL SHIFT A BIT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CAPE
AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ABOVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO
AROUND 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE
OZARK PLATEAU. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO PRECLUDE THE INITIATION OF STORMS PRIOR TO LATE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLY EVENING. BUT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT A CONFLUENCE ZONE/ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
NEAR THE INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET CORE COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
DISCRETE STORMS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF THIS
OCCURS...LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE CURVATURE
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.

ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO/
THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU TUESDAY EVENING...AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOP TO THE WEST...FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS STRENGTHENING LINEAR FORCING
ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THE
EVOLUTION OF AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITH THE RISK FOR
CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE AS IT SURGES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 02/08/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080555
SWODY1
SPC AC 080553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NERN NM...MUCH OF
WEST TX...WRN OK INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...AND FAR SERN CO/SW KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND TRACKING EWD
THROUGH THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
TRACKING MORE NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. A
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED
WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL BOTH
BE KEY IN THE SWRN SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND TAKING A NEW TRACK.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO NW KS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FULL EXTENT OF THE PLAINS
TODAY WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING /50-70 KT/ EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /90-150 METERS/ ATTENDANT
TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
SW U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT MOVES EWD
THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND REACHES CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL TX BY
12Z MONDAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TODAY...MOISTURE RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY ROBUST
DUE TO RECENT SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS INTO THE GULF. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO SRN/ERN
TX...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF W TX. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT INDICATING LOW CLOUDS...
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AS FAR WEST AS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 250-500 J/KG.

THUS..TSTM INITIATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NERN NM WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SERN CO TO W TX AS STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. BACKED
SLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ATOP A LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE SUGGEST TSTMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD...REACHING SRN KS TO CENTRAL TX BY 12Z
MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT LEAST A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS LINEAR FORCED SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE LARGE WITH THE INCREASE IN THE SLY LLJ.
EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN THE TSTM LINE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

..PETERS.. 02/08/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080535
SWODY2
SPC AC 080532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION
THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THROUGH
THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS STATES...AS YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW DIGS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST.

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE LACK OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW...COUPLED WITH WARM ANTECEDENT
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...
STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. A CONVECTIVE BAND...PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AND...LIFT
JUST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 70-90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT BY THE TIME THE MORE MOIST
LOW-LEVEL PARCELS ARE FORCED THROUGH A DEEP RELATIVELY WARM AND
UNSATURATED MID-LEVEL LAYER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CAPE.

THUS...IT STILL SEEMS THAT IF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IS TO
DEVELOP MONDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE WAKE OF THIS BAND... WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT CONTRIBUTES TO CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION JUST
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE EVOLUTION OF ONLY VERY WEAK CAPE WITHIN THIS ZONE...LIKELY LESS
THAN 500 J/KG...FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT...IN THE
PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND
FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE CYCLONE...THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY
WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...WITH ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING...AS THE CYCLONE PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY.

..KERR.. 02/08/2009

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