SWODY2
SPC AC 081715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A LINE
OF CONVECTION ONGOING FROM SRN KS SWD ACROSS WCNTRL OK INTO CNTRL
TX. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST WITH THIS LINE MONDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT QUICKLY NEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION WEAKENING
IN THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A POWERFUL 50 TO 70
KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO THE UPPER-MIDWEST. IN SPITE OF
STRONG SLY FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AND SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S F ACROSS MOST OF THE SEE TEXT AREA.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
ERN KS...ERN NEB...NRN MO AND IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE VERY FOCUSED WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET
SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
MAY BE MINIMAL WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 500 MB
TEMPS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE
COLD RANGING FROM -20 TO -22 C. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR COULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 02/08/2009
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