Tuesday, March 11, 2014

KGLD [111714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 111714
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1114 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1104 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE GOVE 38.93N 100.40W
03/11/2014 M52 MPH GOVE KS MESONET


&&

$$

JJM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111711
SWODY2
SPC AC 111710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EMERGING
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD
AND REACH THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF D2/WED. AS IT DOES
SO...IT WILL PHASE WITH A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SSEWD
FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. THE RESULTING PERTURBATION WILL BE A
POTENT...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD
ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES. HIGH-MAGNITUDE...LARGE-SCALE UPWARD
MOTION PRECEDING THIS TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND
INTENSIFYING LLJ OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE ENEWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A FRONTAL
CYCLONE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW OF THE
CYCLONE WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND MID
ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG POLEWARD MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE CYCLONE
ALLOW A WARM SECTOR TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NJ.

...THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 300-600 J/KG -- DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF /1/ AT
LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION IN SOME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY...WARM-ADVECTION-ENCOURAGED CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND /2/ STRONG NWD FLUXES OF RELATIVELY
HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM/BUOYANT SECTOR WILL BE
MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES
WITHIN THE SFC LAYER ATOP THE ONGOING SNOW PACK IN NRN PA AND NRN
NJ. REGARDLESS...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT ADVANCES FROM SERN OHIO/ERN KY INTO WRN WV AND WRN PA BY
MID-DAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE
WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD
FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY
THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF
WV INTO NRN VA...CNTRL/WRN MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND
S-CNTRL PA...WHICH MAY HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE
PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR-WIND EVENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
INSOLATION-ENHANCED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR WHICH
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

..COHEN.. 03/11/2014

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KGLD [111703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 111703
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1028 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
03/11/2014 M51 MPH GRAHAM KS ASOS

1022 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HOXIE 39.36N 100.44W
03/11/2014 M52 MPH SHERIDAN KS MESONET


&&

$$

JJM

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KUNR [111658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111658
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1058 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 NW SAINT ONGE 44.58N 103.76W
03/11/2014 M8.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ME

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KUNR [111636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 111636
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 SW DOWNTOWN RAPID CIT 44.03N 103.30W
03/11/2014 M2.9 INCH PENNINGTON SD COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING

0700 AM SNOW 5 SSW LEAD 44.29N 103.81W
03/11/2014 M3.9 INCH LAWRENCE SD COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING

0700 AM SNOW PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.07N 103.50W
03/11/2014 M3.3 INCH PENNINGTON SD CO-OP OBSERVER

STILL SNOWING

0730 AM SNOW 10 WSW RED ELM 45.00N 101.98W
03/11/2014 M3.0 INCH ZIEBACH SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 7 W DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.37W
03/11/2014 M3.8 INCH PENNINGTON SD COCORAHS

0900 AM SNOW 1 SW MYSTIC 44.06N 103.66W
03/11/2014 M4.5 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 1 SSE DEERFIELD 44.01N 103.83W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0907 AM SNOW 4 N SILVER CITY 44.15N 103.56W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 AM SNOW NEMO 44.19N 103.50W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW 1 SE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.28N 105.49W
03/11/2014 M2.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW 16 SSW LEAD 44.14N 103.89W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW TERRY PEAK 44.33N 103.83W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0912 AM SNOW DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.72W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 AM SNOW RECLUSE 44.74N 105.71W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 AM SNOW DOWNTOWN BELLE FOURCHE 44.67N 103.85W
03/11/2014 M3.5 INCH BUTTE SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0915 AM SNOW SUNDANCE 44.40N 104.37W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0916 AM SNOW DEVILS TOWER 44.59N 104.72W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CROOK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0918 AM SNOW HOOVER 45.11N 103.27W
03/11/2014 M3.0 INCH BUTTE SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0926 AM SNOW HILL CITY 43.93N 103.58W
03/11/2014 M2.0 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0930 AM SNOW HULETT 44.68N 104.60W
03/11/2014 M4.0 INCH CROOK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0935 AM SNOW 3 ENE DEADWOOD 44.39N 103.67W
03/11/2014 M4.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 NE GALENA 44.39N 103.59W
03/11/2014 E6.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 AM HEAVY SNOW DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.73W
03/11/2014 M5.8 INCH LAWRENCE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

STORM TOTAL

0944 AM SNOW 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
03/11/2014 M2.8 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

0948 AM SNOW CHEYENNE CROSSING 44.30N 103.87W
03/11/2014 M5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&


THE STORM REPORTS LISTED BELOW ARE IN DESCENDING ORDER AND MAY NOT
NECESSARILY BE THE FINAL STORM REPORTS.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
6.00 5 NE GALENA SD LAWRENCE 0937 AM
5.80 DEADWOOD SD LAWRENCE 0940 AM
STORM TOTAL
5.00 CHEYENNE CROSSING SD LAWRENCE 0948 AM
5.00 DEADWOOD SD LAWRENCE 0912 AM
5.00 TERRY PEAK SD LAWRENCE 0911 AM
5.00 16 SSW LEAD SD LAWRENCE 0911 AM
5.00 4 N SILVER CITY SD LAWRENCE 0907 AM
4.50 1 SW MYSTIC SD PENNINGTON 0900 AM
4.00 3 ENE DEADWOOD SD LAWRENCE 0935 AM
4.00 HULETT WY CROOK 0930 AM
3.90 5 SSW LEAD SD LAWRENCE 0700 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.80 7 W DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0800 AM
3.50 DOWNTOWN BELLE FOURCHE SD BUTTE 0914 AM
3.30 PACTOLA RESERVOIR SD PENNINGTON 0700 AM
STILL SNOWING
3.00 HOOVER SD BUTTE 0918 AM
3.00 DEVILS TOWER WY CROOK 0916 AM
3.00 SUNDANCE WY CROOK 0915 AM
3.00 RECLUSE WY CAMPBELL 0914 AM
3.00 NEMO SD LAWRENCE 0910 AM
3.00 1 SSE DEERFIELD SD PENNINGTON 0900 AM
3.00 10 WSW RED ELM SD ZIEBACH 0730 AM
2.90 5 SW DOWNTOWN RAPID CIT SD PENNINGTON 0700 AM
STILL SNOWING
2.80 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0944 AM
2.50 1 SE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE WY CAMPBELL 0911 AM
2.00 HILL CITY SD PENNINGTON 0926 AM

$$

JC

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KUNR [111636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 111636
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 SW DOWNTOWN RAPID CIT 44.03N 103.30W
03/11/2014 M2.9 INCH PENNINGTON SD COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING

0700 AM SNOW 5 SSW LEAD 44.29N 103.81W
03/11/2014 M3.9 INCH LAWRENCE SD COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING

0700 AM SNOW PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.07N 103.50W
03/11/2014 M3.3 INCH PENNINGTON SD CO-OP OBSERVER

STILL SNOWING

0730 AM SNOW 10 WSW RED ELM 45.00N 101.98W
03/11/2014 M3.0 INCH ZIEBACH SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 7 W DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.37W
03/11/2014 M3.8 INCH PENNINGTON SD COCORAHS

0900 AM SNOW 1 SW MYSTIC 44.06N 103.66W
03/11/2014 M4.5 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 1 SSE DEERFIELD 44.01N 103.83W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0907 AM SNOW 4 N SILVER CITY 44.15N 103.56W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 AM SNOW NEMO 44.19N 103.50W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW 1 SE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.28N 105.49W
03/11/2014 M2.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW 16 SSW LEAD 44.14N 103.89W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW TERRY PEAK 44.33N 103.83W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0912 AM SNOW DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.72W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 AM SNOW RECLUSE 44.74N 105.71W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 AM SNOW DOWNTOWN BELLE FOURCHE 44.67N 103.85W
03/11/2014 M3.5 INCH BUTTE SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0915 AM SNOW SUNDANCE 44.40N 104.37W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0916 AM SNOW DEVILS TOWER 44.59N 104.72W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CROOK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0918 AM SNOW HOOVER 45.11N 103.27W
03/11/2014 M3.0 INCH BUTTE SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0926 AM SNOW HILL CITY 43.93N 103.58W
03/11/2014 M2.0 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0930 AM SNOW HULETT 44.68N 104.60W
03/11/2014 M4.0 INCH CROOK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0935 AM SNOW 3 ENE DEADWOOD 44.39N 103.67W
03/11/2014 M4.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 NE GALENA 44.39N 103.59W
03/11/2014 E6.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 AM HEAVY SNOW DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.73W
03/11/2014 M5.8 INCH LAWRENCE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

STORM TOTAL

0944 AM SNOW 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
03/11/2014 M2.8 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

0948 AM SNOW CHEYENNE CROSSING 44.30N 103.87W
03/11/2014 M5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111623
SWODY1
SPC AC 111621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER CO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
FROM KS INTO SOUTHERN IND BY 12Z WED. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL STRENGTH RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...DRAWING 50S DEWPOINTS AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS MO/IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
FORCING IMPINGES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. CAPE VALUES WILL BE WEAK...BUT RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IL INTO IN/KY OVERNIGHT...WHERE
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL HELP OFFSET MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM THE MOST INTENSE CELLS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

...GULF COAST REGION...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE UPPER TX GULF COAST. A
LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AFFECTING PARTS OF LA/MS. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION INLAND.
WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE MS DELTA REGION
OF SOUTHEAST LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

..HART/CORFIDI.. 03/11/2014

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KTFX [111555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111555
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
954 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS 46.54N 110.90W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH MEAGHER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

ESTIMATED 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE WHITE SULPHUR
SPRINGS AREA.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KBOU [111555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 111555
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
955 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 ENE WINTER PARK 39.89N 105.76W
03/11/2014 M1.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
03/11/2014 M1.7 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 5 WSW FRASER 39.91N 105.88W
03/11/2014 M2.8 INCH GRAND CO COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 2 ENE TABERNASH 39.99N 105.82W
03/11/2014 M0.0 INCH GRAND CO COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 7 NW SILVERTHORNE 39.72N 106.18W
03/11/2014 M3.5 INCH SUMMIT CO COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 2 SE DILLON 39.60N 106.01W
03/11/2014 M1.7 INCH SUMMIT CO COCORAHS


&&

$$

JK

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KTFX [111554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111554
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
953 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E GALLATIN GATEWAY 45.59N 111.13W
03/11/2014 E8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT PUBLIC

ESTIMATED ABOUT 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KUNR [111549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111549
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 AM SNOW CHEYENNE CROSSING 44.30N 103.87W
03/11/2014 M5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ME

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KUNR [111544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111544
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
944 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 AM SNOW 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
03/11/2014 M2.8 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE


&&

$$

ME

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KUNR [111542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111542
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
942 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 7 W DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.37W
03/11/2014 M3.8 INCH PENNINGTON SD COCORAHS


&&

$$

ME

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KUNR [111542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111542
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
941 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM SNOW 3 ENE DEADWOOD 44.39N 103.67W
03/11/2014 M4.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 NE GALENA 44.39N 103.59W
03/11/2014 E6.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 AM HEAVY SNOW DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.73W
03/11/2014 M5.8 INCH LAWRENCE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

STORM TOTAL


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [111531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111531
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 10 WSW RED ELM 45.00N 101.98W
03/11/2014 M3.0 INCH ZIEBACH SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 1 SW MYSTIC 44.06N 103.66W
03/11/2014 M4.5 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 1 SSE DEERFIELD 44.01N 103.83W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0907 AM SNOW 4 N SILVER CITY 44.15N 103.56W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 AM SNOW NEMO 44.19N 103.50W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW 16 SSW LEAD 44.14N 103.89W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW TERRY PEAK 44.33N 103.83W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0912 AM SNOW DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.72W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 AM SNOW DOWNTOWN BELLE FOURCHE 44.67N 103.85W
03/11/2014 M3.5 INCH BUTTE SD CO-OP OBSERVER

0915 AM SNOW SUNDANCE 44.40N 104.37W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0916 AM SNOW DEVILS TOWER 44.59N 104.72W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CROOK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0926 AM SNOW HILL CITY 43.93N 103.58W
03/11/2014 M2.0 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0930 AM SNOW HULETT 44.68N 104.60W
03/11/2014 M4.0 INCH CROOK WY CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

ME

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KTFX [111524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111524
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
924 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W BIG SKY 45.26N 111.43W
03/11/2014 E8.0 INCH MADISON MT NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY NEAR
ELEVATION OF 7200 FT MSL


&&

$$

BLANK

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KUNR [111519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111519
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
919 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0918 AM SNOW HOOVER 45.11N 103.27W
03/11/2014 M3.0 INCH BUTTE SD CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [111515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111515
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
915 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0911 AM SNOW 1 SE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.28N 105.49W
03/11/2014 M2.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 AM SNOW RECLUSE 44.74N 105.71W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JC

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KTFX [111449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111449
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
849 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW HOBSON 47.00N 109.87W
03/11/2014 E4.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT CO-OP OBSERVER

NEW SNOWFALL PAST 12 HOURS


&&

$$

UTTECH

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KTFX [111440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111440
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
840 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 8 SE ULM 47.34N 111.40W
03/11/2014 M4.5 INCH CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

NEW SNOWFALL PAST 12 HOURS


&&

$$

UTTECH

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KTFX [111439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111439
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
838 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 5 SW GREAT FALLS 47.46N 111.38W
03/11/2014 M3.7 INCH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NEW SNOWFALL PAST 12 HOURS


&&

$$

UTTECH

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KUNR [111433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111433
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
833 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.07N 103.50W
03/11/2014 M3.3 INCH PENNINGTON SD CO-OP OBSERVER

STILL SNOWING


&&

$$

ME

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KUNR [111417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111417
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
817 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 SW DOWNTOWN RAPID CIT 44.03N 103.30W
03/11/2014 M2.9 INCH PENNINGTON SD COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING

0700 AM SNOW 5 SSW LEAD 44.29N 103.81W
03/11/2014 M3.9 INCH LAWRENCE SD COCORAHS

STILL SNOWING


&&

$$

ME

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KTFX [111359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 111359
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
758 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW 21 W NEIHART 46.88N 111.16W
03/10/2014 M6.0 INCH MEAGHER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES. LOCATION IS 14 MILES SE OF
MILLEGAN.


&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

$$

BRUSDA

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KBOU [111357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 111357
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
757 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
03/11/2014 M1.7 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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KUNR [111334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111334
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
733 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 AM HEAVY SNOW DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.73W
03/11/2014 M5.5 INCH LAWRENCE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

STILL SNOWING HARD


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [111333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 111333
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
733 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 AM SNOW 10 WSW RED ELM 45.00N 101.98W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH ZIEBACH SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KSLC [111329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 111329
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
728 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HANNA 40.58N 110.62W
03/10/2014 M58 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

DRY RIDGE - 11565 FT

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TRIAL LK 40.84N 111.02W
03/10/2014 M75 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET

WINDY PEAK - 10662 FT

0120 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FAIRVIEW 39.62N 111.31W
03/11/2014 M70 MPH SANPETE UT MESONET

PORTABLE RWIS 4 - 9805 FT

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.19N 111.87W
03/10/2014 M65 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN-STRAW TOP - 8999 FT

0515 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.88W
03/10/2014 M70 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

OGDEN PEAK - 9570 FT

0520 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NORDIC VLY 41.37N 111.76W
03/10/2014 M63 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

POWDER MOUNTAIN - 8897 FT

0710 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.75N 113.99W
03/10/2014 M58 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PORT OF ENTRY - 4227 FT

0625 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FILLMORE 38.95N 112.37W
03/10/2014 M60 MPH MILLARD UT MESONET

FILLMORE AIRPORT - 4988 FT

0715 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.75N 114.02W
03/10/2014 M68 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PEAK - 5087 FT

0650 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SALDURO 40.52N 113.75W
03/10/2014 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

NORTH SALT FLATS - 4218 FT

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BARRO 40.73N 113.47W
03/10/2014 M66 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

INTERSTATE 80 - 4125 FT

0720 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GOLD HILL 40.21N 113.34W
03/10/2014 M59 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

V-GRID - 4226 FT

0610 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BARRO 40.73N 113.50W
03/10/2014 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

I-80 AT MP 29 - 4125 FT

0920 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CURLEW JCT 41.94N 113.09W
03/10/2014 M58 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

SR-30 AT CURLEW - 4766 FT

0610 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KNOLLS 40.45N 113.47W
03/10/2014 M64 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WEST OF WILDCAT MTN - 4259 FT

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY 40.16N 112.89W
03/10/2014 M58 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WHITE SAGE - 4363 FT

0635 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CLIVE 40.34N 113.24W
03/10/2014 M60 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

SALT FLATS - 4265 FT

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND GST IBAPAH 40.12N 113.53W
03/10/2014 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

CAUSEWAY - 4246 FT

0615 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARAGONITE 40.91N 113.15W
03/10/2014 M61 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

DIDDLE KNOLL - 4265 FT

0935 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CALLAO 39.95N 113.70W
03/10/2014 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

CALLAO - 4530 FT

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY 40.10N 113.22W
03/10/2014 M62 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

TARGET R - 4311 FT

0740 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BLUFFDALE 40.46N 111.90W
03/10/2014 M64 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

FLIGHT PARK SOUTH - 5202 FT

0850 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OREM 40.31N 111.56W
03/10/2014 M60 MPH UTAH UT MESONET

BUNNELLS - 8800 FT

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.64W
03/10/2014 M80 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11066 FT

0400 AM SNOW ALTA 40.59N 111.64W
03/11/2014 M6.0 INCH SALT LAKE UT TRAINED SPOTTER

ALTA UDOT - 8799 FT

0415 AM SNOW ALTA 40.58N 111.64W
03/11/2014 M6.0 INCH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

ALTA - COLLINS - 9662 FT

0425 AM SNOW PARK CITY 40.66N 111.57W
03/11/2014 M4.0 INCH SUMMIT UT TRAINED SPOTTER

THE CANYONS - 8800 FT

0430 AM SNOW POWDER MTN 41.36N 111.71W
03/11/2014 M3.0 INCH WEBER UT OFFICIAL NWS OB

POWDER MOUNTAIN - 0 FT

0514 AM SNOW BRIGHTON 40.62N 111.59W
03/11/2014 M5.0 INCH SALT LAKE UT TRAINED SPOTTER

SOLITUDE - 8200 FT

0515 AM SNOW BRIGHTON 40.59N 111.58W
03/11/2014 M7.0 INCH SALT LAKE UT TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIGHTON CREST - 9500 FT

0525 AM SNOW SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
03/11/2014 M5.0 INCH WEBER UT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWBASIN MID BOWL - 7402 FT

0545 AM SNOW ALTA 40.57N 111.65W
03/11/2014 M8.0 INCH SALT LAKE UT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWBIRD - 8100 FT

0600 AM SNOW BRIGHTON 40.64N 111.64W
03/11/2014 M8.0 INCH SALT LAKE UT TRAINED SPOTTER

BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES - 7402 FT

0600 AM SNOW PARK CITY 40.61N 111.54W
03/11/2014 M5.0 INCH SUMMIT UT TRAINED SPOTTER

PARK CITY SUMMIT - 9300 FT

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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KMSO [111327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 111327
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
726 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SNOW 4 WNW WEST VALLEY 46.17N 113.10W
03/11/2014 M6.5 INCH DEER LODGE MT PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL SNOW DURATION 18
HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION 7.4 NW OF ANACONDA



&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111237
SWODY1
SPC AC 111236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MO AND OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE IN NW KS WILL DEVELOP EWD TO W CENTRAL MO BY
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE DEEPENING WHILE PROGRESSING EWD
OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM CO/WY...AS PHASING BEGINS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WITH A
SEPARATE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
SPREAD NWD/NEWD FROM E TX. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE INHIBITED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY IN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NRN MO IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTION WILL THEN SPREAD
EWD/ESEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO SW MO.
WHILE SBCAPE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SOME SUPERCELL RISK
WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING...AND
MORE LINEAR CONVECTION FARTHER SW ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES... WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE COLD FRONT.
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS FROM SRN MO TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONVECTION WILL
BECOME LARGELY ELEVATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK BUOYANCY.
THUS...THE WIND/HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH EWD
EXTENT FROM NRN/CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING.

...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE EWD AND WEAKEN AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES BY
TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEY REGION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS ONGOING S OF LA...WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...SUCH THAT THE RICHER MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL NOT SPREAD INLAND MUCH BEYOND
THE IMMEDIATE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 03/11/2014

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KGJT [111203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 111203
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
603 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 AM SNOW 3 ESE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 40.46N 106.77W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH ROUTT CO SKI AREA


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1400766

$$

TGJT

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KGJT [111201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 111201
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 6 SW RABBIT EARS PASS 40.36N 106.73W
03/11/2014 E4.0 INCH ROUTT CO SNOTEL

ESTIMATED SWE 0.4 INCHES


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1400765

$$

TGJT

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KTFX [111155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111155
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
554 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM SNOW 18 SE GALLATIN GATEWAY 45.40N 110.96W
03/11/2014 E15.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 15 INCHES AT SHOWER FALLS
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8100 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111153
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 ESE GALLATIN GATEWAY 45.50N 110.97W
03/11/2014 E12.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 12 INCHES AT LICK CREEK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 6860 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111150
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW 18 W WHITE SULPHUR SPRI 46.56N 111.29W
03/11/2014 E12.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 12 INCHES AT BOULDER MTN
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7950 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111148
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
548 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW 13 SSW MARTINSDALE 46.29N 110.43W
03/11/2014 E16.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 16 INCHES AT ELK PEAK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7600 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111147
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW 6 N BASIN 46.36N 112.26W
03/11/2014 E7.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES AT ROCKER PEAK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8000 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111145
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW 5 W BIG SKY 45.27N 111.43W
03/11/2014 E13.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 13 INCHES AT LONE MOUNTAIN
SNOTEL...ELEVTION 8880 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111144
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
544 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM SNOW 5 SW PONY 45.60N 111.96W
03/11/2014 E14.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 14 INCHES AT ALBRO LAKE
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8300 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111142
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
542 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW 11 SE LINCOLN 46.84N 112.51W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 5 INCHES AT NEVADA RIDGE
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7020 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111141
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
541 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW 5 SW GREAT FALLS 47.46N 111.38W
03/11/2014 M3.4 INCH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

3.4 INCHES OF SNOFALL SINCE 6PM MDT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111139
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW 6 WSW NEIHART 46.91N 110.85W
03/11/2014 E12.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 12 INCHES AT ONION PARK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7410 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111137
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW DUPUYER 48.06N 112.76W
03/11/2014 E11.0 INCH TETON MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES...24 HR SNOWFALL OF 11
INCHES AT DUPUYER CREEK SNOTEL...ELEVATION 5750 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111133
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
532 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
03/11/2014 E5.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 5 INCHES AT PIKE CREEK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 5928 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111129
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
529 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW 1 SW LAKEVIEW 44.59N 111.82W
03/11/2014 E3.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 3 INCHES AT LAKEVIEW RIDGE
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7401 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111128
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
528 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW 18 NW LAKEVIEW 44.79N 112.06W
03/11/2014 E6.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES AT DIVIDE SNOTEL...ELEVATION
7800 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111038
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
438 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM SNOW 12 ENE CHECKERBOARD 46.67N 110.33W
03/11/2014 E14.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

24 HR SNOWFALL OF 14 INCHES AT DAISY PEAK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7600 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111029
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
429 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 SSE NEIHART 46.79N 110.68W
03/11/2014 E6.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES...9 INCHES IN THE LAST 24
HRS AT DEADMAN CREEK SNOTEL...ELEVATION 6480 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [111027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 111027
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
426 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 ESE GALLATIN GATEWAY 45.50N 110.97W
03/11/2014 E9.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 9 INCHES AT LICK CREEK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 6860 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110809
SWOD48
SPC AC 110808

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE BROAD NWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE
DAY4-8 TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING THE
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG. LATEST GFS IS VERY RELUCTANT ALLOWING MEANINGFUL MOISTURE
TO ADVANCE INLAND AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER ERN CONUS
LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DIGS NRN
ROCKIES SPEED MAX SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH INTO MEXICO
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BUOYANCY TO RETURN INTO TX THIS WEEKEND
AND ACROSS FL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES PREDICTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 03/11/2014

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110658
SWODY3
SPC AC 110657

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN AZ/NM...

SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SWD
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER AZ DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD. VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...MINUS 24C AT
500MB...WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL MATERIALIZE WITH SFC-4KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM.
WHILE PW IS EXPECTED TO BE SCANT FOR TSTMS...VERY COLD COLUMN SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES...PRIMARILY DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

..DARROW.. 03/11/2014

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KGJT [110609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 110609
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 40.47N 106.76W
03/10/2014 M50 MPH ROUTT CO AWOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1400764

$$

NL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110553
SWODY1
SPC AC 110552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A 60
TO 75 MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS ERN KS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE EXTENDING EWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND.
THE MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW FROM NW MO INTO SRN IA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA DURING THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT
FROM CNTRL INTO SRN MO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BE
QUITE STRONG NEAR THE SFC LOW AND SWD ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTING
THAT CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE TUESDAY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WEDNESDAY IN CNTRL AND NRN MO SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS
ALONG WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT AS STORMS QUICKLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NCNTRL MO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND 500 MB
TEMPS OF -16 C TO -18 C COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST FROM NEAR
THE SFC LOW EXTENDING EWD INTO SCNTRL IL JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
TRACK. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC LOW AND SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN FAR NRN MO...SRN IA AND NCNTRL
IL...THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 03/11/2014

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KTFX [110534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 110534
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1134 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW 23 SE CASCADE 47.02N 111.37W
03/10/2014 M6.0 INCH CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES. LOCATION IS 14 MILES SE OF
MILLEGAN.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110450
SWODY2
SPC AC 110449

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

INTENSE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...IN EXCESS OF 200 M...WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH EARLIER GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/DEEPENING OF SFC LOW ACROSS SRN PA AFTER
18Z. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOWER-MID 50S SFC DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD INTO PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AT DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN PA...SWD INTO VA.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM
WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

LATEST THINKING IS SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
ALONG/NORTH OF DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE OH VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD
AHEAD OF STRONG PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR-SFC BASED
UPDRAFTS ACROSS SWRN PA/NRN WV. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES WWD TOWARD DEEPENING SFC LOW WHERE UPDRAFTS HAVE A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ROOTING INTO BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND FIELDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN 50KT+ FLOW NEAR 900MB COULD MIX
TO THE SFC WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION PRIMARILY DUE TO FORECAST WEAK
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HIGHER SEVERE PROBS MAY BE REQUIRED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A STRONGLY FORCED FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

..DARROW.. 03/11/2014

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KMSO [110431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 110431
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1030 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM AVALANCHE 2 NE PRINCETON 46.43N 113.14W
03/10/2014 GRANITE MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL ***




&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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