DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220042
SWODY1
SPC AC 220040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WEAK CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FROM SRN MT...SEWD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS REGION AHEAD OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONE OR TWO WEAK TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER SRN MT
SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND
LIGHTNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 10/22/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211945
SWODY1
SPC AC 211943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE NEGLIGIBLE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS CONTINUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

..PETERS.. 10/21/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011/

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST NEEDED.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY...PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM SRN MT AND WY EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB
PANHANDLE...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FARTHER S...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT
OVER SRN OK/NRN TX AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD BENEATH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
FROM TAKING PLACE BEFORE 12Z/22.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
EAST COAST WILL AMPLIFY/DEEPEN OVER THE ERN STATES ON SATURDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOUR CORNERS REGION. A COUPLE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE FORMER BEING MORE
LIKELY FOR TSTMS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...OK/TX/ARKLATEX...
SLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS MASS
FIELDS CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM
WY/NRN CO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXPECTED
TO RESIDE FROM W-E OVER NRN TX AT 12Z SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NWD INTO SRN OK THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THIS BOUNDARY BEING A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM MID-LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SPREADING ESEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE TIMING OF THE
WY/CO TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD INITIALLY FORM OVER SRN OK/N TX...WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SLY LLJ
VEERS TO SWLY-WLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SOME UVVS SUGGEST THE
COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 45
KT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVIANT STORM
MOTIONS.

...FAR ERN ND/NRN MN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL AMPLIFY ESEWD FROM ALBERTA ON SATURDAY
REACHING CENTRAL/SRN MANITOBA AND ADJACENT ONTARIO/NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO ERN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT
IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN MN...WILL AID IN VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND 800-850 MB. STRONGER FORCING ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS SRN CANADA...THOUGH SOME UVVS GLANCING
THIS REGION AND EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION MAY SUPPORT A STRIKE OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LOW COVERAGE OF
EXPECTED TSTMS CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF A GENERAL TSTM
AREA.

..PETERS.. 10/21/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211619
SWODY1
SPC AC 211617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST NEEDED.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY...PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM SRN MT AND WY EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB
PANHANDLE...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FARTHER S...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT
OVER SRN OK/NRN TX AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD BENEATH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
FROM TAKING PLACE BEFORE 12Z/22.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 10/21/2011

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KGRR [211356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 211356
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
956 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 AM NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSON 42.24N 84.40W
10/20/2011 M43.00 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

0340 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
10/20/2011 M44.00 MPH MASON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/20/2011 M59.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED GUST AT THE SOUTH HAVEN GLERL SITE.

0620 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW LUDINGTON STATE P 44.06N 86.52W
10/20/2011 M49.00 MPH LMZ849 MI OTHER FEDERAL

MEASURED AT BIG SABLE POINT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW GRAND LEDGE 42.76N 84.76W
10/20/2011 M1.27 INCH EATON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW HART 43.68N 86.42W
10/20/2011 M1.05 INCH OCEANA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN HASTINGS 42.65N 85.29W
10/20/2011 M1.96 INCH BARRY MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN GRANDVILLE 42.91N 85.76W
10/20/2011 M1.09 INCH KENT MI NWS EMPLOYEE

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE VICKSBURG 42.13N 85.52W
10/20/2011 M2.41 INCH KALAMAZOO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0740 AM HEAVY RAIN EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
10/20/2011 M1.18 INCH KENT MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E KENTWOOD 42.90N 85.51W
10/20/2011 M1.41 INCH KENT MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT NWS GRAND RAPIDS.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE MOUNT PLEASANT 43.65N 84.70W
10/20/2011 M1.19 INCH ISABELLA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH 8AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW IONIA 42.96N 85.08W
10/20/2011 M1.59 INCH IONIA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 E WHITE CLOUD 43.57N 85.59W
10/20/2011 M1.18 INCH NEWAYGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN GREENVILLE 43.18N 85.26W
10/20/2011 M1.31 INCH MONTCALM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 W MASON 42.58N 84.56W
10/20/2011 M1.83 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

1105 AM FLOOD KALAMAZOO 42.28N 85.59W
10/20/2011 KALAMAZOO MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

CITY OF KALAMAZOO OFFICIALS REPORT SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS...BUT NO ROAD CLOSURES ARE OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME.

0442 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 E MUSKEGON 43.22N 86.15W
10/20/2011 M1.39 INCH MUSKEGON MI AMATEUR RADIO

STORM TOTAL.

0442 PM HEAVY RAIN ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
10/20/2011 M2.12 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0608 PM HEAVY RAIN BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
10/20/2011 M1.44 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL.

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN OSHTEMO 42.26N 85.68W
10/20/2011 M2.65 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE COMSTOCK PARK 43.06N 85.65W
10/20/2011 M1.98 INCH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE BATH 42.84N 84.42W
10/20/2011 M2.25 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

1201 AM HEAVY RAIN KENTWOOD 42.90N 85.59W
10/21/2011 M1.80 INCH KENT MI NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

HOVING

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211248
SWODY1
SPC AC 211247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY...PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM SRN MT AND WY EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB
PANHANDLE...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FARTHER S...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT
OVER SRN OK/NRN TX AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD BENEATH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
FROM TAKING PLACE BEFORE 12Z/22.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 10/21/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210849
SWOD48
SPC AC 210849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AS PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...A RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PRIOR TO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION MID-LATE WEEK AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH.

DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS INCREASINGLY COMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A WARM/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
VICINITY AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. WHILE MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT/WARM SECTOR CAPPING COULD BE
LIMITATIONS...SOME STRONG/PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS
THE MIDWEST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON OR AROUND DAY
7/THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM FL TO THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY AT THIS
JUNCTURE PRECLUDES A 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.

..GUYER.. 10/21/2011

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KAPX [210847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 210847
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
447 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ALPENA 45.07N 83.44W
10/20/2011 ALPENA MI NEWSPAPER

DELAYED REPORT. SCATTERED TREES DOWN. TREE CAME IN
CONTACT WITH 138,000 VOLT POWER LINE COMING OUT OF FOUR
MILE SUBSTATION ON LONG RAPIDS ROAD. FIVE DISTRIBUTION
SUBSTATIONS LOST POWER. APPROXIMATELY 5800 CUSTOMERS
WITHOUT POWER.

&&

$$

HALBLAUB

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KAPX [210840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 210840
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
440 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG TRAVERSE CITY 44.75N 85.60W
10/20/2011 GRAND TRAVERSE MI BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT. UTILITY POLE BLOWN DOWN BEHIND MEIJER ON
FRANKE ROAD. POWER OUT FOR ABOUT 450 CUSTOMERS OF
TRAVERSE CITY LIGHT AND POWER.

&&

$$

HALBLAUB

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210703
SWODY3
SPC AC 210701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON SUNDAY.
AS A STRONG POLAR JET SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF A FAST-MOVING/MODESTLY AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

POTENTIALLY LINGERING FROM DAY 2/SATURDAY...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT/WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION. IN EITHER CASE...SEVERE TSTMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

..GUYER.. 10/21/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210614
SWODY2
SPC AC 210613

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINE TYPE

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
REAMPLIFY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHWEST CONUS TO THE MIDWEST/PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/POSSIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX VICINITY...AS DETAILED BELOW.
HOWEVER...SOME STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITHIN A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COINCIDENT WITH AN ADVANCING CLIPPER-TYPE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH POTENTIAL IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OF SUFFICIENTLY LOW
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY AS TO PRECLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

...OK/TX/ARKLATEX...
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO ABATE...MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /GENERALLY MIDDLE-UPPER 50S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/ IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING/WEAK FRONT. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX...A MODEST WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/FAR
NORTH TX. WHILE THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THE POSSIBILITY OF SBCAPE TO
1000 J/KG AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILE BENEATH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SUGGEST MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THAT SAID...A DEGREE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND CONCERNS
REGARDING AIRMASS QUALITY/MOISTURE RETURN PRECLUDE THE DELINEATION
OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/21/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210601
SWODY2
SPC AC 210600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
REAMPLIFY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHWEST CONUS TO THE MIDWEST/PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/POSSIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX VICINITY...AS DETAILED BELOW.
HOWEVER...SOME STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITHIN A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COINCIDENT WITH AN ADVANCING CLIPPER-TYPE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH POTENTIAL IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OF SUFFICIENTLY LOW
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY AS TO PRECLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

...OK/TX/ARKLATEX...
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO ABATE...MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /GENERALLY MIDDLE-UPPER 50S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/ IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING/WEAK FRONT. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX...A MODEST WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/FAR
NORTH TX. WHILE THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THE POSSIBILITY OF SBCAPE TO
1000 J/KG AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILE BENEATH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SUGGEST MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THAT SAID...A DEGREE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND CONCERNS
REGARDING AIRMASS QUALITY/MOISTURE RETURN PRECLUDE THE DELINEATION
OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/21/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210511
SWODY1
SPC AC 210510

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING WILL PROVE EXTREMELY
SPARSE OR MORE LIKELY ABSENT FRIDAY DUE PRIMARILY TO THE ABSENCE OF
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. ONE AREA WHERE DRY THERMALS AND
PERHAPS A FEW WEAK ATTEMPTS AT TSTMS WILL BE NOTED IS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITHIN DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO
WARM CONSIDERABLY SUCH THAT SFC BASED PARCELS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY
BUOYANT. EVEN SO PWAT VALUES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW TO WARRANT
DEEP/MOIST UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD ACROSS
TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UVV AND THE
PRESENCE OF A STOUT CAP THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LATER DAY2.

..DARROW/DEAN.. 10/21/2011

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KGRR [210402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 210402
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 AM HEAVY RAIN KENTWOOD 42.90N 85.59W
10/21/2011 M1.80 INCH KENT MI NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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