SWOD48
SPC AC 210849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2011
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...A RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PRIOR TO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION MID-LATE WEEK AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH.
DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS INCREASINGLY COMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A WARM/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/MS VALLEY
VICINITY AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. WHILE MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT/WARM SECTOR CAPPING COULD BE
LIMITATIONS...SOME STRONG/PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS
THE MIDWEST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON OR AROUND DAY
7/THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM FL TO THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY AT THIS
JUNCTURE PRECLUDES A 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.
..GUYER.. 10/21/2011
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