Monday, August 12, 2013

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1704

ACUS11 KWNS 122101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122100
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN OK...CNTRL/SRN AR...FAR
NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122100Z - 122300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SVR INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBS INDICATE A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AR WWD INTO SERN OK THAT ALSO ARCS NWWD INTO
NWRN OK. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- AND ATTENDANT STRONGER/MORE
WIDESPREAD COLD POOL ORGANIZATION -- ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MORE NOTABLE SWD/SEWD MOTION OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR...WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS MORE
QUASI-STATIONARY NWWD INTO NWRN OK.

THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S
OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S
AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH A FEW STORMS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SVR WIND/HAIL ON A SPORADIC BASIS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD EXIST INVOF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY SEGMENT OF THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL OK INTO NWRN
OK...WHERE CONVECTION MAY HAVE A LOWER POTENTIAL TO BE UNDERCUT BY
THE BOUNDARY.

HOWEVER...AREA VWP DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL
REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHERE
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY PRECLUDE
SUSTENANCE OF INTENSE CONVECTION. THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF FAVORABLY
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AMIDST ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LARGELY
MITIGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36659948 35549906 34659867 33839759 33509461 33719219
34239165 34939249 34859438 34999687 36799885 36659948

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1703

ACUS11 KWNS 122053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122052
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN AND
NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122052Z - 122215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS CELLS MOVE
SEWD AND CROSS THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...STORM COVERAGE HAS STEADILY INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SRN IL SWWD ACROSS SE MO INTO NRN AR ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS NE AR AND WRN TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S F SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR WET DOWNBURSTS SHOULD EXIST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS DATA...LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED THE MOST FROM NEAR MEMPHIS SWWD TO NEAR
PINE BLUFF. THIS AREA COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON 34089022 34148950 34978812 35188776 35398755 35788769
36188821 36458856 37228871 37848896 37858962 37269045
36359117 35449188 34899209 34399152 34089022

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KJKL [122052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 122052
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
452 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM FLASH FLOOD STANTON 37.85N 83.86W
08/12/2013 POWELL KY 911 CALL CENTER

WATER WAS REPORTED FLOWING ACROSS EAST COLLEGE AVE IN
SEVERAL PLACES. AT ONE POINT WATER ENTERED THE POOH AND
PALS DAYCARE CENTER. THE WATER HAD RECEDED FROM THE
BUILDING AND OFF THE ROAD BY 335 PM.


&&

$$

AR

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KJKL [122050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 122050
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
449 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0321 PM FLASH FLOOD STANTON 37.85N 83.86W
08/12/2013 POWELL KY 911 CALL CENTER

KNEE DEEP WATER WAS FLOWING ACROSS THE INTERSECTION OF
WASHINGTON AND RAILROAD STREETS.THE WATER RECEDED OFF THE
ROAD AROUND 335 PM.


&&

$$

AR

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KGSP [122047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 122047
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N ETOWAH 35.35N 82.59W
08/12/2013 HENDERSON NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AROUND MILLS RIVER INCLUDING ON RAY
HILL ROAD AS WELL AS SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD AND TURNPIKE ROAD.


&&

$$

MCAVOY

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KOTX [122045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KOTX 122045
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
145 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 SSE ROCK ISLAND 47.28N 120.11W
08/10/2013 CHELAN WA PUBLIC

REPORTS OF BASEMENTS BEING FLOODED ALONG WITH
OUTBUILDINGS FROM PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
MUDSLIDES ALSO REPORTED AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAINS.

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG QUINCY 47.23N 119.85W
08/10/2013 GRANT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS UPROOTED A 40 FOOT TREE WITH A 5 FOOT DIAMETER
TRUNK ONTO A CAR IN SOUTHEASTERN QUINCY. POWER AND PHONES
ARE OUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF QUINCY. STANDING
WATER 6 INCHES IN DEPTH REPORTED ACROSS HIGHWAY 28 IN
TOWN. STANDING WATER WAS ALSO REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OTHER AREAS OF TOWN AS WELL.

0645 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSE ROCK ISLAND 47.31N 120.10W
08/11/2013 CHELAN WA PUBLIC

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED DOWN THE DRY GULCH DRAINAGE.
FLOOD WATERS AND DEBRIS LED TO THE WASHOUT OF THE DRY
GULCH BRIDGE ON COLOCKUM ROAD AND NOW THE ROAD IS
IMPASSABLE.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN WILBUR 47.75N 118.68W
08/12/2013 M0.51 INCH LINCOLN WA CO-OP OBSERVER

0755 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE PESHASTIN 47.57N 120.60W
08/12/2013 M0.65 INCH CHELAN WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-CH-28


&&

$$

FLIEHMAN

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KUNR [122042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 122042
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM HAIL 1 ENE DEERFIELD RESERVO 44.02N 103.78W
08/12/2013 E1.25 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DBARBER

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KCYS [122038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 122038
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
237 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 PM HAIL 1 E LARAMIE 41.31N 105.56W
08/12/2013 M0.25 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

EAST SIDE OF LARAMIE.


&&

$$

RUBIN

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KBOU [122037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 122037
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
237 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL SE PARKER 39.51N 104.76W
08/12/2013 M1.00 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN THE PINERY 39.46N 104.73W
08/12/2013 M1.06 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 15 MINUTES


&&

$$

JK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1702

ACUS11 KWNS 122035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122035
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-122300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB...SERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122035Z - 122300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ELY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT MODESTLY RICH MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S IN MANY AREAS JUST E OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS -- INTO THE LOWER 60S -- ARE
FOUND OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPSLOPE FLOW/TERRAIN-DRIVEN
CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CO
FRONT RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FARTHER N INTO SERN WY AND
INVOF A FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO AND NWRN
KS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE FAIRLY WELL-STRUCTURED ANVILS
EMANATING FROM THIS CONVECTION AND EXTENDING DOWNSHEAR/EWD...IN
RESPONSE TO MODERATE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION.
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS
WITH SVR HAIL/WIND OCCURRING ON SPORADIC BASIS...AS CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO HAVE A TENDENCY OF SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INTO LATE AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 6
KM AGL IS RELATIVELY MODEST -- GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS -- PER AREA
WIND PROFILER DATA...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LESSEN THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.
ALSO...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REDUCE
THE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41450556 41700333 40990139 40320095 38170085 37100161
37250408 37980505 39500544 41450556

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KLMK [122030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 122030
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0401 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE LOUISVILLE 38.19N 85.70W
08/12/2013 JEFFERSON KY PUBLIC

WATER OVER THE ROADWAY. DEPTH APPEARS TO BE UP TO THE
BOTTOM OF A CAR DOOR VIA PICTURE ON TWITTER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300446

$$

LG

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KAKQ [122015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 122015
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL MECHANICSVILLE 37.63N 77.36W
08/10/2013 E1.50 INCH HANOVER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

VICINITY OF POLE GREEN AND MEADOWBRIDGE ROADS


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1300929

$$

JEF

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KAKQ [122012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 122012
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM DOWNBURST MECHANICSVILLE 37.63N 77.36W
08/10/2013 E75 MPH HANOVER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

ENCOUNTERED TREMENDOUS DOWNBURST VICINITY OF POLE GREEN
AND MEADOWBRIDGE ROADS... WIND GUST ESTIMATED 75 MPH OR
GREATER... MOVED 3000 LB TRUCK SEVERAL FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1300928

$$

JEF

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1701

ACUS11 KWNS 122011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122010
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-122245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...FAR NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122010Z - 122245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBS REVEAL A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER PLAINS WNWWD/NWWD ACROSS THE MCD
AREA INTO N-CNTRL MT. THIS CORRIDOR LIES BETWEEN A DIFFUSE
NW/SE-ORIENTED SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MT INTO SWRN ND AND
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE W IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ARE COMMON ACROSS THE ENHANCED-MOISTURE
CORRIDOR...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL
MT. THE CONFIGURATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN
EML OVERLYING THE RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z
TFX/GGW RAOBS.

THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE DIURNALLY
STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AUGMENTED BY REGIONS
OF UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING AGITATED CUMULUS/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE MOUNTAINS OF S-CNTRL
MT AND NRN WY...AND MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAINS IN CNTRL MT --
E.G. LITTLE BELT AND BIG SNOWY MOUNTAINS.

AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS/SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
GREATER INSTABILITY...AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS ALONG A WIND-SHIFT
AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER E OF CUT BANK...AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH AROUND
15-20 KT OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MAY LARGELY MITIGATE THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF ANY SVR THREAT...AS MORE NOTABLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON 44630546 44990808 45891063 47221189 48211199 48661138
48921018 48730716 46980510 45180364 44630546

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KBOU [122009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 122009
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
209 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN THE PINERY 39.46N 104.73W
08/12/2013 M1.06 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 15 MINUTES


&&

$$

JK

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KAMA [122009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 122009
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
309 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 PM TSTM WND GST 4 WNW AMARILLO 35.22N 101.89W
08/12/2013 M58 MPH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300778

$$

JACKSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 122003
SWODY1
SPC AC 122000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TN AND MID MS VALLEYS THROUGH SRN PLAINS...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. GREATEST THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST FROM A PORTION
OF NRN TX INTO OK AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND SFC BOUNDARY FROM SRN IL INTO NRN AR
AND SERN OK. THE STRONGER WIND PROFILES REMAIN NW OF THIS BOUNDARY
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF VORT MAX ACROSS CNTRL MO. THE WEAKER SHEAR
PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL MODES.

OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED AIR ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING SUPPORTED BY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM NRN OK INTO KS WITHIN
ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A SWD DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.


...SD INTO NRN NEB...

REF SWOMCD 1700

..DIAL.. 08/12/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING PERSISTS WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IMPACTING
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. A PROMINENT UPPER HIGH CENTER LINGERS OVER
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WHILE CYCLONIC REGIMES PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE
SOUTH...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
REMAINS FLAT...BUT WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG AN AXIS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...TOWARD THE CANADIAN HIGH CENTER...WHILE A
MODEST BELT OF CYCLONIC WESTERLIES CURVES EAST OF THE LOWER CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AMPLIFICATION OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EAST DOES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...AS A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DIG
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INFILTRATE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE REMNANTS OF A PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE...NOW EXTENDING
SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THE TENNESEE VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS SEASONABLY HIGH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
SOUTHERN FRONTAL ZONE...BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES HAVE
BECOME RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

ACROSS THE WEST...DRYING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT BASIN...BUT IT REMAINS AT LEAST MODESTLY
MOIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...OZARK PLATEAU/MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE
SUPPORTING AREAS OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...30-40+ KT WINDS AT OR ABOVE
500 MB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR/MOMENTUM TO SUPPORT ONE OR
TWO ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTERS WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. PEAK WIND GUSTS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW THE 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA...THOUGH...PRECLUDING
AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...MID ATLANTIC...
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSES...COUPLED WITH LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS
/20-40+ KT/. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ALONG
THE STALLED OR SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE AIDS INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS WEAK. AND SEASONABLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
MIXING...TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STORMS. AIDED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES PROBABLY WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED
STRONG DOWNBURSTS...WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.

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KLMK [121959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 121959
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
358 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0247 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW GEORGETOWN 38.29N 86.00W
08/12/2013 FLOYD IN PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ON OLD LANESVILLE ROAD IN THE GEORGETOWN
AREA. PICTURE POSTED VIA FACEBOOK.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300445

$$

LG

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KJKL [121942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 121942
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD STANTON 37.85N 83.86W
08/12/2013 POWELL KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

BOTH RAILROAD AND WASHINGTON STREETS ARE FLOODED.


&&

$$

TBREWER

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KJKL [121929]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 121929
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM FLASH FLOOD HARDWICK 37.78N 83.94W
08/12/2013 POWELL KY TRAINED SPOTTER

A FOOT OF FLOWING WATER ACROSS ON 1017 HARDWICKS ROAD.


&&

$$

TBREWER

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KJKL [121928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 121928
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM FLASH FLOOD VAUGHNS MILL 37.81N 83.92W
08/12/2013 POWELL KY TRAINED SPOTTER

A FOOT OF FLOWING WATER ACROSS THE INTERSECTION OF 2001
AND 1057 AT VAUGHNS MILL ROAD.


&&

$$

TBREWER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1700

ACUS11 KWNS 121926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121926
SDZ000-NEZ000-122200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SD AND NRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121926Z - 122200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WW
ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A CUMULUS FIELD
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONT THAT EXTENDS
NW-SE ACROSS SD INTO NERN NEB...PARTLY OWING TO INSOLATION/DIABATIC
HEATING SERVING TO REDUCE CINH. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S AMIDST MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-2500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. CONTINUED
DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE BLACK HILLS...AND THIS ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE MAY
BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

A CHANNEL OF ENHANCED WNWLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND
30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF ONE OR MORE
SEWD/SSEWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS WERE TO EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING FROM LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATE THE LACK OF ANY SALIENT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THESE FACTORS SHOULD PREVENT A MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT FROM EVOLVING...THOUGH TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 42519796 42209991 42550236 43500371 44780386 45580206
44999934 43559771 42519796

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KLSX [121912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 121912
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
212 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND GST BONNE TERRE 37.92N 90.55W
08/12/2013 E50 MPH ST. FRANCOIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL BRANCHES SNAPPED.


&&

$$

CARNEY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1699

ACUS11 KWNS 121856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121855
OKZ000-TXZ000-122130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121855Z - 122130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS INSOLATION
OCCURS AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE 60S OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
TO THE LOWER 70S IN PARTS OF WRN OK. SFC OBS INDICATE A CONFLUENCE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN NM ENEWD INTO NWRN OK...WHERE IT LINKS WITH
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL OK. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE INVOF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS IN THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM NM.

ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
BOLSTER UPDRAFT SHELTERING...WITH ACCOMPANYING ASCENT SERVING TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EVIDENT IN A MODIFIED 12Z AMA RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE CORES...AND A MARGINAL SVR THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY OF BEING STEERED INTO
WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING GIVEN 20-30 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ASSOCIATED DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODEST...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM WILL LIMIT NORMALIZED CAPE...AND THE
BELOW-1-KM-AGL FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING CONVERGENCE ARE -- AND SHOULD
REMAIN -- RELATIVELY WEAK PER SFC OBS AND VWP DATA. THESE FACTORS
WILL LARGELY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION...AS STORMS EXHIBIT PULSE/OCCASIONAL MULTICELLULAR MODES.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36370269 36940116 36659957 35849895 34879976 34530170
34940300 36370269

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KAPX [121853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 121853
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
253 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM HEAVY RAIN PICKFORD 46.16N 84.36W
08/12/2013 M1.16 INCH CHIPPEWA MI SPOTTER

FELL IN 45 MINUTES.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KAPX [121852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 121852
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
252 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HAIL PICKFORD 46.16N 84.36W
08/12/2013 M0.25 INCH CHIPPEWA MI SPOTTER

TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KGSP [121841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 121841
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HAIL 1 WSW CANTON 35.54N 82.86W
08/12/2013 E1.00 INCH HAYWOOD NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER JUST HAD QUARTER SIZED HAIL WHICH STARTED ABOUT
25 AFTER AND LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES. A FEW STONES MAY
HAVE BEEN A BIT LARGER. ALSO HAD STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT
BLEW DOWN LIMBS 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KSJT [121836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 121836
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
135 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E BANGS 31.71N 99.11W
08/11/2013 BROWN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

A LARGE OAK TREE LIMB WAS REPORTED DOWN ON US-67. THE
DIAMETER WAS 10 INCHES BY 20 FEET LONG. A FEW TREES WERE
ALSO UPROOTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300410

$$

DOLL

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KGRR [121823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 121823
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
223 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HEAVY RAIN BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
08/12/2013 M2.51 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KOHX [121823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 121823
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0936 AM TSTM WND DMG CROSS PLAINS 36.54N 86.68W
08/12/2013 ROBERTSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO TOBACCO CROPS
ALONG A NARROW 2-3 MILE PATH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM MOUNT CARMEL CHURCH ON HIGHWAY 25 IN CROSS PLAINS


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300663

$$

MROSE

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KTOP [121816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 121816
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S HARRIS 38.26N 95.44W
08/12/2013 M2.00 INCH ANDERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH 12 NOON TODAY.


&&

$$

JW

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121747
SWODY2
SPC AC 121746

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF ERN N C INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN LAST PARAGRAPH

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE
ERN STATES WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
ERN U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SEWD INTO THE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE NERN U.S. AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL
EXTEND SWWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND INTO NRN TX WHERE IT SHOULD
STALL OR DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

...ERN NC...MID ATLANTIC INTO NERN STATES...

PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS REGION IS LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLACE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN PORTION
OF THE NERN STATES BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
35-40 KT 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED..ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN STATES. WHERE POCKETS OF HEATING CAN DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC...GREATER INSOLATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE
DEEP LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER.
NEVERTHELESS...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW MULTICELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS...OVERALL SEVERE
RISK APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

...OK INTO NRN TX...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE E-W FRONT ACROSS A PORTION OF OK INTO
AR. DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THIS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SEWD.
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURST
WINDS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND EARLY CONVECTION AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL...WILL MAINTAIN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK.

...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES...

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN ROCKIES AS WELL AS OVER PORTION OF HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY...PROSPECTS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT APPEAR
LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 08/12/2013

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KPDT [121746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 121746
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 AM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HAIL 12 NE APPLETON 45.91N 121.06W
08/09/2013 E1.50 INCH KLICKITAT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL NEARLY
COVERING THE GROUND. ALSO HAD HEAVY RAIN THAT CAUSED
MINOR WASHOUTS ON GRAVEL DRIVEWAY LEADING TO THEIR HOUSE.



&&

$$

GP

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121733
SWODY2
SPC AC 121730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF ERN N C INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE
ERN STATES WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
ERN U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SEWD INTO THE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE NERN U.S. AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL
EXTEND SWWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND INTO NRN TX WHERE IT SHOULD
STALL OR DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

...ERN NC...MID ATLANTIC INTO NERN STATES...

PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS REGION IS LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLACE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN PORTION
OF THE NERN STATES BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
35-40 KT 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED..ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN STATES. WHERE POCKETS OF HEATING CAN DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC...GREATER INSOLATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE
DEEP LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER.
NEVERTHELESS...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW MULTICELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS...OVERALL SEVERE
RISK APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

...OK INTO NRN TX...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE E-W FRONT ACROSS A PORTION OF OK INTO
AR. DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THIS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SEWD.
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURST
WINDS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND EARLY CONVECTION AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
SLIGHT RISK.

...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES...

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN ROCKIES AS WELL AS OVER PORTION OF HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY...PROSPECTS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT APPEAR
LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 08/12/2013

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KOAX [121652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 121652
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1152 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1151 AM HEAVY RAIN LYONS 41.94N 96.47W
08/12/2013 M3.83 INCH BURT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL LAST EVENING


&&

$$

MILLER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121632
SWODY1
SPC AC 121629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING PERSISTS WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IMPACTING
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. A PROMINENT UPPER HIGH CENTER LINGERS OVER
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WHILE CYCLONIC REGIMES PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TO THE
SOUTH...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
REMAINS FLAT...BUT WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG AN AXIS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...TOWARD THE CANADIAN HIGH CENTER...WHILE A
MODEST BELT OF CYCLONIC WESTERLIES CURVES EAST OF THE LOWER CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AMPLIFICATION OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EAST DOES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...AS A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DIG
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INFILTRATE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE REMNANTS OF A PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE...NOW EXTENDING
SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THE TENNESEE VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS SEASONABLY HIGH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
SOUTHERN FRONTAL ZONE...BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES HAVE
BECOME RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

ACROSS THE WEST...DRYING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT BASIN...BUT IT REMAINS AT LEAST MODESTLY
MOIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...OZARK PLATEAU/MID MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE
SUPPORTING AREAS OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...30-40+ KT WINDS AT OR ABOVE
500 MB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR/MOMENTUM TO SUPPORT ONE OR
TWO ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTERS WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. PEAK WIND GUSTS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW THE 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA...THOUGH...PRECLUDING
AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...MID ATLANTIC...
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSES...COUPLED WITH LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS
/20-40+ KT/. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY WITH RESPECT TO
INSTABILITY...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ALONG
THE STALLED OR SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE AIDS INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS WEAK. AND SEASONABLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
MIXING...TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STORMS. AIDED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES PROBABLY WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED
STRONG DOWNBURSTS...WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/COHEN.. 08/12/2013

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KGRR [121607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 121607
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN KALAMAZOO 42.28N 85.59W
08/12/2013 M1.93 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATED RAINFALL TOTAL. SPOTTER RECORDED FROM 3 AM TO 11
AM


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KTOP [121605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KTOP 121605
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1105 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 AM TSTM WND GST 2 SW ABILENE 38.90N 97.24W
08/12/2013 M56.00 MPH DICKINSON KS ASOS

REPORT MEASURED FROM ABILENE AIRPORT ASOS.

0415 AM TSTM WND GST FORT RILEY AIRFIELD 39.06N 96.76W
08/12/2013 M50.00 MPH GEARY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED WIND GUST FROM FORT RILEY. LIGHTNING STRUCK 2
TRANSFORMERS ON THE BASE CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW HOLLENBURG 39.93N 97.02W
08/12/2013 M1.84 INCH WASHINGTON KS COCORAHS

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BARNES 39.71N 96.87W
08/12/2013 M1.76 INCH WASHINGTON KS COCORAHS

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W TOPEKA 39.05N 95.77W
08/12/2013 M1.66 INCH SHAWNEE KS COCORAHS

0719 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW AMERICUS 38.46N 96.33W
08/12/2013 M3.10 INCH LYON KS BROADCAST MEDIA

0749 AM HEAVY RAIN LINN 39.68N 97.08W
08/12/2013 M2.50 INCH WASHINGTON KS PUBLIC

0848 AM HEAVY RAIN WESTMORELAND 39.39N 96.41W
08/12/2013 M2.00 INCH POTTAWATOMIE KS PUBLIC

1103 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S WAVERLY 38.32N 95.60W
08/12/2013 M2.09 INCH COFFEY KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

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KTOP [121605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 121605
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1104 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1103 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S WAVERLY 38.32N 95.60W
08/12/2013 M2.09 INCH COFFEY KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1698

ACUS11 KWNS 121558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121557
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121557Z - 121730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN MO LATE
THIS MORNING AND COULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DUE
TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SW AND CNTRL MO IS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAXIMA EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN AN GRADUAL EXPANSION OF STORM
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH
MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH
ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ST LOUIS AND SPRINGFIELD MO
WSR-88 VWPS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF
SRN MO AND NRN AR SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS
IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70SF. THIS MAY
ENABLE THE STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 38408987 38699111 38729239 38539361 37959414 37399410
36469368 36139285 35609172 35779062 36098981 37438928
38408987

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KOHX [121555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 121555
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1055 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 S WESTMORELAND 36.52N 86.25W
08/12/2013 SUMNER TN EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER RESCUE ON OLD WOLF HILL ROAD IN THE BRANSFORD
COMMUNITY


&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1300662

$$

MROSE

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KLUB [121533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 121533
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1033 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTHFIELD 34.29N 100.60W
08/11/2013 MOTLEY TX CO-OP OBSERVER

TIME IS ESTIMATED... STOCK TRAILER BLOWN 200
FT....SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF WITH LIMBS BROKE OFF
TREES...BLEW OFF AND TWISTED LAWN MOVER HOOD


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300425

$$

CALDRICH

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KGID [121529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 121529
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1029 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM FLOOD 6 W NORTH LOUP 41.49N 98.89W
08/11/2013 VALLEY NE EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FILLING UP FIELDS AND
CREEKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTY. SOME OF THIS
WATER IS CREEPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 22 ABOUT 6
MILES WEST OF NORTH LOUP. HIGHWAY IS STILL PASSABLE AS OF
705 PM CDT.

0750 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S GREELEY 41.49N 98.53W
08/11/2013 M2.90 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. 2.90 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 530 PM CDT. FIELDS AND
CREEKS FILLING WITH WATER BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN
HIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

0828 PM HEAVY RAIN GREELEY 41.55N 98.53W
08/11/2013 M1.40 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE ABOUT 530 PM CDT...WITH
1.40 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED THROUGH ABOUT 830 PM CDT.
PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO FELL FOR A SHORT TIME. HE HAS NOT SEEN
OR HEARD OF ANY FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR TONIGHT.

0855 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE ROCKVILLE 41.16N 98.78W
08/11/2013 M4.70 INCH SHERMAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PAST FOUR HOURS.
4.70 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 500 PM CDT. MINOR FLOODING ALSO
OBSERVED WITH SOME WATER CROSSING A FEW ROADS. ALL ROADS
THEY HAVE COME ACROSS REMAIN PASSABLE AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N NORA 40.18N 97.97W
08/12/2013 M2.53 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SW NELSON 40.20N 98.07W
08/12/2013 E2.47 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W RUSKIN 40.14N 97.92W
08/12/2013 M2.40 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN RAVENNA 41.03N 98.91W
08/12/2013 M2.57 INCH BUFFALO NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NE SUPERIOR 40.08N 97.99W
08/12/2013 M3.70 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL NERAIN OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN ESE RUSKIN 40.14N 97.87W
08/12/2013 M2.71 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL NERAIN OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE DEWEESE 40.30N 98.11W
08/12/2013 E2.58 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN ESE LAWRENCE 40.29N 98.26W
08/12/2013 M2.59 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN HEBRON 40.17N 97.59W
08/12/2013 M2.56 INCH THAYER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E SUPERIOR 40.02N 97.99W
08/12/2013 M2.33 INCH NUCKOLLS NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN NELSON 40.20N 98.07W
08/12/2013 M2.57 INCH NUCKOLLS NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN JEWELL 39.67N 98.15W
08/12/2013 M2.65 INCH JEWELL KS COCORAHS

24HR TOTAL

0802 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE KENESAW 40.64N 98.63W
08/12/2013 M2.75 INCH ADAMS NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF RAINFALL SINCE LAST EVENING

0811 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N KENESAW 40.66N 98.66W
08/12/2013 M3.75 INCH ADAMS NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT

0957 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S ASHTON 41.20N 98.79W
08/12/2013 M4.35 INCH SHERMAN NE PUBLIC

VERY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY EVENING


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KGID [121520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 121520
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1020 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN JEWELL 39.67N 98.15W
08/12/2013 M2.65 INCH JEWELL KS COCORAHS

24HR TOTAL


&&

$$

PBEDA

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KGID [121506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 121506
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1006 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM FLOOD 6 W NORTH LOUP 41.49N 98.89W
08/11/2013 VALLEY NE EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FILLING UP FIELDS AND
CREEKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTY. SOME OF THIS
WATER IS CREEPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 22 ABOUT 6
MILES WEST OF NORTH LOUP. HIGHWAY IS STILL PASSABLE AS OF
705 PM CDT.

0750 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S GREELEY 41.49N 98.53W
08/11/2013 M2.90 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. 2.90 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 530 PM CDT. FIELDS AND
CREEKS FILLING WITH WATER BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN
HIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

0828 PM HEAVY RAIN GREELEY 41.55N 98.53W
08/11/2013 M1.40 INCH GREELEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE ABOUT 530 PM CDT...WITH
1.40 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED THROUGH ABOUT 830 PM CDT.
PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO FELL FOR A SHORT TIME. HE HAS NOT SEEN
OR HEARD OF ANY FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR TONIGHT.

0855 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE ROCKVILLE 41.16N 98.78W
08/11/2013 M4.70 INCH SHERMAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PAST FOUR HOURS.
4.70 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 500 PM CDT. MINOR FLOODING ALSO
OBSERVED WITH SOME WATER CROSSING A FEW ROADS. ALL ROADS
THEY HAVE COME ACROSS REMAIN PASSABLE AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E SUPERIOR 40.02N 97.99W
08/12/2013 M2.33 INCH NUCKOLLS NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN RAVENNA 41.03N 98.91W
08/12/2013 M2.57 INCH BUFFALO NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN HEBRON 40.17N 97.59W
08/12/2013 M2.56 INCH THAYER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN ESE LAWRENCE 40.29N 98.26W
08/12/2013 M2.59 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W RUSKIN 40.14N 97.92W
08/12/2013 M2.40 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SW NELSON 40.20N 98.07W
08/12/2013 E2.47 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N NORA 40.18N 97.97W
08/12/2013 M2.53 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE DEWEESE 40.30N 98.11W
08/12/2013 E2.58 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL FROM NERAIN OB

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN ESE RUSKIN 40.14N 97.87W
08/12/2013 M2.71 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL NERAIN OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NE SUPERIOR 40.08N 97.99W
08/12/2013 M3.70 INCH NUCKOLLS NE MESONET

24HR TOTAL NERAIN OBSERVER

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN NELSON 40.20N 98.07W
08/12/2013 M2.57 INCH NUCKOLLS NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24HR TOTAL

0802 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE KENESAW 40.64N 98.63W
08/12/2013 M2.75 INCH ADAMS NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF RAINFALL SINCE LAST EVENING

0811 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N KENESAW 40.66N 98.66W
08/12/2013 M3.75 INCH ADAMS NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT

0957 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S ASHTON 41.20N 98.79W
08/12/2013 M4.35 INCH SHERMAN NE PUBLIC

VERY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY EVENING


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [121459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 121459
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
959 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0957 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S ASHTON 41.20N 98.79W
08/12/2013 M4.35 INCH SHERMAN NE PUBLIC

VERY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY EVENING


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGRR [121447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 121447
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1047 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM FLOOD 1 S KALAMAZOO 42.27N 85.59W
08/12/2013 KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STANDING WATER ON AND NEAR CROSSTOWN PARKWAY AND HOWARD
ST. REPORTED THROUGH VARIOUS SOURCES.


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KGRR [121441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 121441
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1040 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1034 AM HEAVY RAIN N FENNVILLE 42.60N 86.10W
08/12/2013 M2.32 INCH ALLEGAN MI BROADCAST MEDIA

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COURTESY OF FOX 17


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KICT [121435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121435
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
935 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0933 AM FLOOD 3 SW MARION 38.32N 97.05W
08/12/2013 MARION KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CULVERT WASHED OUT AT 160TH AND PAWNEE AND WATER OVER THE
ROAD AT 190TH AND NIGHTHAWK


&&

$$

SGS

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KGRR [121423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 121423
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1023 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE WAYLAND 42.65N 85.55W
08/12/2013 M1.63 INCH BARRY MI BROADCAST MEDIA

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COURTESY WWMT-TV


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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