Saturday, November 10, 2007

KGRB [110327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 110327
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
926 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM SNOW TOWNSEND 45.33N 88.58W
11/10/2007 M1.0 INCH OCONTO WI BROADCAST MEDIA

RELAY FROM BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

SRF

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KGRB [110139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 110139
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
738 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM SNOW ELCHO 45.43N 89.18W
11/10/2007 M1.3 INCH LANGLADE WI CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

SRF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110050
SWODY1
SPC AC 110047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NWRN CONUS...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN WA/THE OLYMPICS OVERNIGHT...AND OVER NWRN MT THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN
BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

..PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY...
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET -- PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN BOTH LOW-LEVEL
UVV AS WELL AS MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN AN ELEVATED LAYER
-- SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF NERN MO/ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL AND SURROUNDING AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.GOSS.. 11/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101936
SWODY1
SPC AC 101933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MID MS VALLEY...

SWLY LLJ WHICH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD
TONIGHT...LARGELY BECOMING FOCUSED FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE NEWD TRANSPORT OF
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /I.E. MUCAPES OF 400-900 J PER KG FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND
850 MB/ INVOF SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE...ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN STRENGTHENING WAA
REGIME...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

..LOWER MS VALLEY...

A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ IS
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE S/SW OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM ERN OK/THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN MS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS
CONVECTION FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF LA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTHS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TX COAST. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FROM ERN TX INTO
LA WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND
SUBSEQUENT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..PACIFIC NW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
FROM THE NERN PACIFIC EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WA/ID
PNHDL AND NEAR 45N/133W. CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN FACT...LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK DATA SHOW A
SERIES OF STRIKES OCCURRING OVER SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE.

AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LEAD SYSTEM FROM ERN WA INTO THE ID PNHDL
INTO WRN MT...AND EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT OVER WRN WA WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE.

.MEAD.. 11/10/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101705
SWODY2
SPC AC 101703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. NRN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL
FEATURE AN ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE NERN PACIFIC EWD INTO CNTRL
CANADA...WHILE LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSES TRANSLATE ACROSS NRN MEXICO
INTO TX...AND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WARM FRONT /MOST NOTABLE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER/ WILL
PROGRESS EWD FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND UPPER
MIDWEST IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS STATES.

..MID MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING
INVOF AND TO THE E OF SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD MIGRATION OF WARM FRONT AND LLJ AXIS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CLOUD
BEARING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..TX/OK...

MORNING OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX INTO CNTRL OK
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOW/MID 50S OVER CNTRL OK TO
65-70F FROM CNTRL TX TO THE TX COAST. WHILE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SLY/SELY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOREOVER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT PERHAPS INVOF COMPLEX
TERRAIN OVER SWRN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TSTMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM PARTS OF W-CNTRL TX INTO S-CNTRL/SERN OK AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE ROOTED
ABOVE 850-700 MB CAP WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MUCAPES OF 500-900 J/KG. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

..SIERRA NEVADAS INTO LOWER CO VALLEY...

CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE REGION.
A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTS ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

.MEAD.. 11/10/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101624
SWODY1
SPC AC 101621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF
THE NATION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN FLOW. A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS
SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL SMALL AREAS WILL SEE A RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

..CENTRAL MS VALLEY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM OK/TX INTO IA/WI/IL.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON NOSE OF THIS JET WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT/. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL...NO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET ARE MOVING ONSHORE
OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING. ONSHORE/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF WIND FIELDS
AND RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. AN
EVEN GREATER THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH NEAR 138W
APPROACHES THE COAST.

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WA/ORE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID/NORTHWEST MT
LATER TODAY. STRONG UVVS AND STRONG COOLING AT MID/UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS REGION. LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED AT BEST.

..LOWER MS VALLEY...
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS NOW IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN
MS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN PARTS OF
THIS REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAK...SUGGESTING ONLY
WEAK ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY IN THIS AREA.

.HART/JEWELL.. 11/10/2007

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KMFR [101619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 101619
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
819 AM PST SAT NOV 10 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/10/2007 M1.44 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7PM PST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 9TH THROUGH 7AM PST SATURDAY,
NOVEMBER 10TH / 12 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT. ELEVATION 900
FEET.


&&

$$

LUTZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101303
SWODY1
SPC AC 101301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH A DOMINANT NRN STREAM FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID ATLANTIC...AND A WEAKER SRN STREAM FROM CA INTO THE SRN ROCKIES
AND NW MEXICO. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WA
COAST ATTM...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 140
W. A SWATH OF SCATTERED CUMULONIMBI ACCOMPANIES THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES/COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
JET...AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A FEW STRIKES TO THE W OF
WA/ORE. EXPECT THIS REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY TO SPREAD INLAND
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WA COAST TO THE W OF THE CASCADES.

ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE W/NW
GULF...AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD INLAND ACROSS S/SE TX
AND WRN LA NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THOUGH LARGER SCALE
PROCESSES SUGGEST LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND INSOLATION MAY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING.

..MID MS VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...
THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS A SEPARATE SRN STREAM TROUGH
FROM CA TO AZ/NM...WILL INDUCE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND A SLY LLJ
ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...FOCUSED IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM WY AND THE DAKOTAS...WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. A FEED OF 55-60 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM
TX/OK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

.THOMPSON/LEVIT.. 11/10/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100842
SWOD48
SPC AC 100841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

..RISK OF ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...

..DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GFS AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE LATEST NCEP-GEFS SUGGEST THAT
THE SRN STREAM UPR LOW THAT DROPS INTO NRN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY NOT EJECT EWD INTO TX UNTIL AFTER FRIDAY 16 NOV. MEANWHILE...A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVING QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE N PAC BASIN
WILL GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A COLD...BUT PROGRESSIVE ERN STATES TROUGH
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A ZONAL WNWLY FLOW PATTERN
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY SPELL A REINFORCEMENT OF
DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR THAT WILL SPREAD QUICKLY SEWD FROM
THE NRN PLAINS/GRTLKS REGION INTO FL AND THE NRN GULF BASIN BY
WEEK/S END. THOUGH A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS...MID-SOUTH AND PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...POOR
MOISTURE/LAPSE RATE RECOVERIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER OUTBREAKS.

.RACY.. 11/10/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100724
SWODY3
SPC AC 100722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
PREDICTABILITY OF THE UPR FLOW REGIME DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
MONDAY. THE MULTI-STREAM PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH FASTEST FLOW RELEGATED TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. MAIN
UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF IMPULSES
WITHIN THE TWO SRN-MOST BRANCHES. THE LEAD WAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
TX ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY WHILE THE UPSTREAM UPR LOW DROPS SEWD...PROBABLY HANGING BACK
IN NWRN MEXICO SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF/GFS. A SEPARATE IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY.

AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD IN TANDEM WITH
THE NRN STREAM WAVE WILL REACH THE MIDWEST...OZARKS...AND W TX BY
12Z TUE. CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE OVER NRN
MEXICO OR NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT
BY 12Z TUE DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM MEXICAN WAVE.

MODIFIED CP AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AFTN. THOUGH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM TX NEWD INTO SWRN MO...THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO BE RELATIVELY WARM IN WAKE
OF THE LEAD WAVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING. AS A RESULT...THOUGH
SPORADIC CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM
CNTRL/WRN TX NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST...ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM.

.RACY.. 11/10/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100536
SWODY2
SPC AC 100535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. NRN STREAM WILL
INITIALLY START OUT ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY EARLY
SUNDAY. BUT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE AROUND 136 DEG W SPREADS
QUICKLY EWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL

LAG BEHIND AND LIKELY BEGIN CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW OVER NRN BAJA BY
12Z MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE CURRENT
LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW DIGGING INTO SRN CA...TO EJECT ENEWD INTO TX
WHILE WEAKENING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE PD. A COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE SEWD...REACHING A WI...IA...CNTRL
KS...NRN NM BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

..LWR MO VLY/CORN BELT/MIDWEST...
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NERN MO...SERN IA AND PORTIONS OF IL...WITHIN A ZONE OF MODEST
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST DURING THE AFTN.


A RENEWED THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...
FROM NERN KS INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND NRN IL/SRN WI AS WEAK LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INTO SW-NE ORIENTED ELEVATED BANDS IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OWING TO MEAGER
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR/ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

..CNTRL/W TX INTO SRN OK...
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO W TX SUNDAY AFTN...THEN MOVE
INTO CNTRL TX BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
/MID-MINUS TEENS DEG C AT H5/ ASSOCD WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF MOIST
AXIS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE H85 WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...WHILE A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER SWRN TX SUNDAY AFTN...THEN SPREAD ENEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN TX AND
SRN OK OVERNIGHT...SVR WEATHER PROSPECTS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.RACY.. 11/10/2007

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