Saturday, November 10, 2007

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100536
SWODY2
SPC AC 100535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. NRN STREAM WILL
INITIALLY START OUT ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY EARLY
SUNDAY. BUT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE AROUND 136 DEG W SPREADS
QUICKLY EWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL

LAG BEHIND AND LIKELY BEGIN CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW OVER NRN BAJA BY
12Z MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE CURRENT
LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW DIGGING INTO SRN CA...TO EJECT ENEWD INTO TX
WHILE WEAKENING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE PD. A COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE SEWD...REACHING A WI...IA...CNTRL
KS...NRN NM BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

..LWR MO VLY/CORN BELT/MIDWEST...
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NERN MO...SERN IA AND PORTIONS OF IL...WITHIN A ZONE OF MODEST
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST DURING THE AFTN.


A RENEWED THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...
FROM NERN KS INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND NRN IL/SRN WI AS WEAK LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INTO SW-NE ORIENTED ELEVATED BANDS IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OWING TO MEAGER
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR/ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

..CNTRL/W TX INTO SRN OK...
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO W TX SUNDAY AFTN...THEN MOVE
INTO CNTRL TX BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
/MID-MINUS TEENS DEG C AT H5/ ASSOCD WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF MOIST
AXIS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE H85 WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...WHILE A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER SWRN TX SUNDAY AFTN...THEN SPREAD ENEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN TX AND
SRN OK OVERNIGHT...SVR WEATHER PROSPECTS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.RACY.. 11/10/2007

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