Tuesday, May 31, 2011

KAPX [312212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312212
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
611 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HAIL 2 SSE GAYLORD 45.01N 84.66W
05/31/2011 M0.50 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100414

$$

ARNOTT

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 409

WWUS20 KWNS 312207
SEL9
SPC WW 312207
NMZ000-TXZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GUADALUPE PASS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE NWWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. WITH MLCAPE AOA
2500 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF BRN SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE E/NE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL
DAMAGING WINDS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...HALES

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KAPX [312202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312202
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
602 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0601 PM HAIL 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
05/31/2011 M0.25 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS OFFICE


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100413

$$

BERGER

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KAPX [312159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312159
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
559 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HONOR 44.67N 85.94W
05/31/2011 E40 MPH BENZIE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED SHELF CLOUD PASS WITH 40 MPH
WIND GUST


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100412

$$

BERGER

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KIWX [312157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 312157
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
557 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTH BEND 41.68N 86.25W
05/31/2011 ST. JOSEPH IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

POWER LINES DOWN AT CAMPEAU STREET AND NORTHWOOD DR


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100986

$$

FISHER

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KAPX [312156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312156
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
556 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM MARINE TSTM WIND MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
05/31/2011 M51 MPH MANISTEE MI C-MAN STATION


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100411

$$

ARNOTT

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KMQT [312153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 312153
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W MICHIGAMME 46.54N 88.13W
05/31/2011 BARAGA MI FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE FELL ON POWERLINES SPARKING A SMALL FIRE ON IMPERIAL
HEIGHTS ROAD JUST OFF OF US-41.


&&

$$

KEC

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KIWX [312153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 312153
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
553 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTH BEND 41.68N 86.25W
05/31/2011 ST. JOSEPH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE CITY


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100985

$$

CEO

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KAPX [312153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312153
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
552 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW HONOR 44.69N 86.05W
05/31/2011 E55 MPH BENZIE MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100410

$$

BERGER

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KBIS [312148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 312148
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
448 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 S MANDAN 46.75N 100.89W
05/31/2011 M40 MPH MORTON ND AWOS


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KIWX [312147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 312147
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
547 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM HAIL EDWARDSBURG 41.80N 86.08W
05/31/2011 E0.25 INCH CASS MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100984

$$

NDM

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KIWX [312147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 312147
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
547 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW SOUTH BEND 41.69N 86.27W
05/31/2011 ST. JOSEPH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN SOUTH BEND AND MISHAWAKA. ONE TREE ONTO A
CAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100983

$$

FISHER

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KAPX [312147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312147
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
547 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM HAIL ARCADIA 44.51N 86.23W
05/31/2011 E0.25 INCH MANISTEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100409

$$

BERGER

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KAPX [312139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312139
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
538 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM MARINE TSTM WIND MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
05/31/2011 M43 MPH MANISTEE MI AWOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100408

$$

ARNOTT

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KIWX [312116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 312116
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
516 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0514 PM HAIL 3 N NORTH LIBERTY 41.58N 86.43W
05/31/2011 E0.25 INCH ST. JOSEPH IN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100982

$$

BENTLEY

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KOHX [312112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 312112
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
411 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM TORNADO SMITHVILLE 35.96N 85.82W
05/26/2011 DEKALB TN NWS STORM SURVEY

A BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED IN SMITHVILLE AT 1AM CDT ON MAY
26. IT SEVERELY DAMAGED A GAS STATION BUILDING BUT THE
CANOPY REMAINED IN TACT. IT ALSO DAMAGED A NEARBY
RESTAURANT. MANY TREES WERE SNAPPED/UPROOTED. THE TORNADO
PATH LENGTH WAS LESS THAN 2 MILES.


&&

$$

LV

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KLBF [312059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 312059
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0401 PM HAIL BREWSTER 41.94N 99.87W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH BLAINE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY DISPATCHER. GROUND
COVERED BY HAIL.

0410 PM HAIL 6 E BASSETT 42.58N 99.42W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH ROCK NE PUBLIC

BIG MARBLES TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH BRIEF DURATION.

0420 PM HAIL 25 S LONG PINE 42.17N 99.70W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. VERY
HEAVY RAIN ALSO REPORTED.

0420 PM HAIL ROSE 42.17N 99.53W
05/30/2011 U1.25 INCH ROCK NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

WINDOWS BROKEN OUT OF HOME BY LARGE HAIL EXACT SIZE
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

0425 PM HAIL 2 N ROSE 42.20N 99.53W
05/30/2011 M2.50 INCH ROCK NE STORM CHASER

DELAYED REPORT FROM STORM CHASER. 2 VEHICLES HAD
WINDSHIELD DAMAGE FROM HAIL. ONE VEHICLE REAR WWINDOW
BUSTED OUT. GROUND WAS COVERED BY HAIL.

0435 PM TORNADO 1 E ROSE 42.17N 99.51W
05/30/2011 ROCK NE STORM CHASER

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY STORM CHASER.

0445 PM HAIL ROSE 42.17N 99.53W
05/30/2011 M2.50 INCH ROCK NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND.5

0447 PM TORNADO 3 E DUNNING 41.83N 100.05W
05/30/2011 BLAINE NE STORM CHASER

TORNADO REPORTED BY STORM CHASER. CONTINUED ROTATING WALL
CLOUD WITH MULTIPLE FUNNELS ALSO REPORTED.

0500 PM HAIL 6 SW ATKINSON 42.47N 99.06W
05/30/2011 M2.75 INCH HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

BASEBALL SIZED HAIL 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATKINSON.

0505 PM TORNADO 3 S ATKINSON 42.49N 98.98W
05/30/2011 HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

DISPATCHER RELAYED REPORT OF TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
ATKINSON. LOTS OF DEBRIS REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 11.

0510 PM HAIL ATKINSON 42.53N 98.98W
05/30/2011 M4.00 INCH HOLT NE STORM CHASER

AT LEAST GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE CENTER OF
ATKINSON. TIME OF REPORT WAS 510 PM CDT.

0510 PM HAIL 1 E NAPER 42.96N 99.08W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH BOYD NE PUBLIC

0510 PM HAIL ATKINSON 42.53N 98.98W
05/30/2011 M2.75 INCH HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

BASEBALL SIZED HAIL FALLING 1 MILE SOUTH OF ATKINSON ON
HIGHWAY 11.

0511 PM HAIL ATKINSON 42.53N 98.98W
05/30/2011 M2.75 INCH HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL FALLING IN SOUTHWEST PART OF ATKINSON.


0512 PM HAIL 3 N ROSE 42.21N 99.53W
05/30/2011 M2.75 INCH ROCK NE STORM CHASER

REPORT OF MANY HAIL STONES OVER 1 INCH WITH A THIRD OF
HAIL STONES OVER ONE AND THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER.
LARGEST HAIL STONES WERE BASEBALL SIZED...AFTER MELTING
AS REPORTED BY STORM CHASER.

0513 PM HAIL ATKINSON 42.53N 98.98W
05/30/2011 M2.75 INCH HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

BASEBALL HAIL FALLING AT COUNTRY CLUB AND ELSEWHERE IN
ATKINSON.

0513 PM HAIL 2 SE STUART 42.58N 99.11W
05/30/2011 M1.75 INCH HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FALLING JUST SOUTHEAST OF STUART AS
REPORTED BY DEPUTIES.

0516 PM HAIL 3 NE ATKINSON 42.56N 98.93W
05/30/2011 M2.00 INCH HOLT NE STORM CHASER

0517 PM HAIL 3 ESE ATKINSON 42.52N 98.92W
05/30/2011 M4.00 INCH HOLT NE STORM CHASER

NEARLY GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL SIZE MEASURED BY STORM
CHASER. ACTUAL DIAMETER OF STONE WAS 3.5 INCHES.

0530 PM TORNADO 5 N ONEILL 42.53N 98.65W
05/30/2011 HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTIES REPORT 3 TORNADOES ON THE GROUND. 873RD ROAD AND
487TH AVENUE IS APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF REPORT.

0540 PM HAIL 3 E DUNNING 41.83N 100.05W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH BLAINE NE PUBLIC

0545 PM HAIL 6 W BREWSTER 41.94N 99.98W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH BLAINE NE PUBLIC

0545 PM HAIL 8 S LEWELLEN 41.21N 102.14W
05/30/2011 M0.75 INCH DEUEL NE PUBLIC

PENNY TO DIME SIZED HAIL COVERED GROUND.

0545 PM HAIL LEWELLEN 41.33N 102.14W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH GARDEN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES. BEGAN AT 540 PM
CDT.

0555 PM TSTM WND GST OGALLALA 41.13N 101.72W
05/30/2011 M63.00 MPH KEITH NE AWOS

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GRANT 40.84N 101.73W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH PERKINS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATED NON CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60
MPH.

0602 PM TSTM WND GST OGALLALA 41.13N 101.72W
05/30/2011 M60.00 MPH KEITH NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED ANEMOMETER WIND GUST TO 60 MILES AN
HOUR.

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SUTHERLAND 41.16N 101.13W
05/30/2011 E50.00 MPH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

0622 PM NON-TSTM WND GST IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
05/30/2011 M68.00 MPH CHASE NE ASOS

0626 PM HAIL 1 SW ATKINSON 42.52N 98.99W
05/30/2011 M1.75 INCH HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0626 PM HAIL ATKINSON 42.53N 98.98W
05/30/2011 M1.75 INCH HOLT NE CO-OP OBSERVER

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN
ATKINSON.

0633 PM TORNADO 4 N ONEILL 42.52N 98.65W
05/30/2011 HOLT NE STORM CHASER

LOTS OF ROTATION. SEVERAL FUNNELS REPORTED BY STORM
CHASER. ONE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AND SAW A POWER
FLASH.

0639 PM HAIL EMMET 42.48N 98.81W
05/30/2011 M0.88 INCH HOLT NE STORM CHASER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL FOR A FOUR MINUTE PERIOD.

0640 PM TORNADO 2 NE ONEILL 42.48N 98.62W
05/30/2011 HOLT NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

2 TORNADOES ON THE GROUND 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF ONEILL AS
REPORTED BY THE FIRE CHIEF.

0645 PM HAIL 10 E ARNOLD 41.42N 100.00W
05/30/2011 M1.75 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

0652 PM TORNADO ONEILL 42.46N 98.65W
05/30/2011 HOLT NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 TORNADOES CONFIRMED ON EASTERN EDGE OF ONEILL BY POLICE
CHIEF AND DEPUTY AND RELAYED BY DISPATCH. NO DAMAGE
REPORTS THUS FAR.

0653 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E NORTH PLATTE 41.13N 100.70W
05/30/2011 M64.00 MPH LINCOLN NE ASOS

0653 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E NORTH PLATTE 41.13N 100.71W
05/30/2011 M70.00 MPH LINCOLN NE ASOS

MEASURED WIND GUST OF A NON CONVECTIVE NATURE AT LEE BIRD
FIELD...AT THE NORTH PLATTE AIRPORT.

0705 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BROKEN BOW 41.41N 99.64W
05/30/2011 M53.00 MPH CUSTER NE ASOS

0705 PM HAIL 17 W OCONTO 41.14N 100.09W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

0705 PM HAIL 16 W TAYLOR 41.77N 99.69W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH BLAINE NE PUBLIC

0710 PM HAIL 2 SE ANSELMO 41.60N 99.84W
05/30/2011 M1.00 INCH CUSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S STAPLETON 41.47N 100.51W
05/30/2011 E70.00 MPH LOGAN NE PUBLIC

BLOWING DUST AND FIERCE WINDS ESTIMATED AS HIGH AS 70
MPH.

0730 PM HAIL ANSELMO 41.62N 99.86W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH CUSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

ANSELMO COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTED THAT PEA AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL ON MONDAY EVENING.

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE ANSLEY 41.26N 99.34W
05/30/2011 CUSTER NE EMERGENCY MNGR

CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SEVERAL EMPTY
GRAIN BINS BLOWN DOWN. SHERIFF SAW A BRIEF GUSTNADO
TOUCHDOWN IN SAME AREA. IRRIGATION PIPES WERE STREWN
ABOUT.

1000 PM HEAVY RAIN BUTTE 42.91N 98.85W
05/30/2011 M2.18 INCH BOYD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 530 PM THROUGH 915 PM CDT
TOTALED 2.18 INCHES.

0803 AM HEAVY RAIN LYNCH 42.83N 98.47W
05/31/2011 M1.80 INCH BOYD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

LYNCH COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTED 1.80 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING.

0803 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NORTH PLATTE 41.13N 100.77W
05/31/2011 M75.00 MPH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED A 75 MPH WIND GUST OCCURRED IN NORTH
PLATTE ON MONDAY EVENING. MEASURED WITH HOME WEATHER
STATION.


&&

$$

NWS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1042

ACUS11 KWNS 312032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312031
TXZ000-NMZ000-312230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...S PLAINS TO THE TRANS-PECOS OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 312031Z - 312230Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 22-00Z AND ATTAIN
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW
ISSUANCE BY 23Z IS 60 PERCENT.

20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOWLY RETREATING/DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT FROM 20 SE CNM TO 30 S LBB TO 20 S CSM. CU FIELD APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING INVOF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SWD
THROUGH THE WRN TX MTNS. APPARENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL NM WILL OVERSPREAD
THE BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT
IN INCREASING FORCED ASCENT SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL AXIS BY 00Z...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO LIKELY
FORM IN THE WRN TX MTNS OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /40 KT AT 6 KM AGL/ ATTENDANT TO THE S-CNTRL
NM IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN TIME-SERIES SAMPLING OF THE WHITE SANDS NM
PROFILER. THIS SPEED MAX ALONG WITH LARGE DIRECTIONAL VEERING FROM
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES GIVEN THE STRONGLY BUOYANT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR. GIVEN DEEP-LAYER WLYS ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL AXIS...MODE SHOULD TRANSITION TO
CLUSTER WITH MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT SWD IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SETUP SHOULD YIELD LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AS THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ALSO
CONCEIVABLE.

..GRAMS.. 05/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33060190 32110324 31470346 30880323 30490295 30240305
30020412 30240450 31210494 32060492 33070453 33610367
34040285 34270192 34070133 33530120 33060190

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KGID [312014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 312014
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 PM HAIL 5 NE GOTHENBURG 40.98N 100.09W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE PUBLIC

CALLED A RESIDENT NORTHEAST OF GOTHENBERG TO GET REPORT

0719 PM HAIL 7 NW COZAD 40.93N 100.08W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0725 PM TORNADO 3 S COZAD 40.82N 99.99W
05/30/2011 DAWSON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO VIA PUBLIC REPORTS. LOCATION
APPROXIMATED. STORM CHASER REPORTS IT COULD HAVE BEEN
LARGE GUSTNADO KICKING UP DIRT.

0728 PM HAIL 5 NE COZAD 40.91N 99.92W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

0740 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 S ELWOOD 40.47N 99.86W
05/30/2011 GOSPER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

SEVERAL CATTLE SHEDS BLEW AWAY

0746 PM TSTM WND GST 8 S ELWOOD 40.47N 99.86W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH GOSPER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS

0752 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N COZAD 40.89N 99.99W
05/30/2011 E75.00 MPH DAWSON NE STORM CHASER

CHASER ESTIMATES 70 TO 75 MPH WIND GUSTS

0755 PM TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
05/30/2011 M90.00 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS

MEASURED AT LEXINGTON AIRPORT BY AUTOMATED SENSOR

0800 PM TSTM WND GST ARCADIA 41.42N 99.13W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH VALLEY NE CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS AT 60 MPH. TREE LIMBS OF 5
TO 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER WERE KNOCKED DOWN.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W ORD 41.60N 99.14W
05/30/2011 VALLEY NE EMERGENCY MNGR

CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO GRAIN BINS...PIVOTS AND SIDE OF
SHED COLLAPSED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0810 PM TSTM WND GST ORD AIRPORT 41.62N 98.95W
05/30/2011 M83.00 MPH VALLEY NE ASOS

MEASURED AT ORD AIRPORT BY AUTOMATED EQUIPMENT

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG ORD AIRPORT 41.62N 98.95W
05/30/2011 VALLEY NE EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF AND ONE SIDE RIPPED OFF OLD HANGAR AT EVELYN SHARP
FIELD.

0815 PM TORNADO 4 SE MILLER 40.89N 99.34W
05/30/2011 BUFFALO NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0823 PM TSTM WND DMG ORD AIRPORT 41.62N 98.95W
05/30/2011 VALLEY NE EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF BUILDINGS DESTROYED AT AIRPORT FROM VALLEY
EMERGENCY MANAGER

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG MILLER 40.93N 99.39W
05/30/2011 BUFFALO NE CO-OP OBSERVER

BLEW PIECES OF CHURCH OFF

0834 PM TORNADO RIVERDALE 40.78N 99.16W
05/30/2011 BUFFALO NE NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE GUSTNADO ON LEADING EDGE OF STORMS. REPORTED 90 MPH
GUSTS WITH POWER FLASHES.

0846 PM HAIL 6 S LOUP CITY 41.19N 98.97W
05/30/2011 M0.88 INCH SHERMAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0846 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S LOUP CITY 41.19N 98.97W
05/30/2011 E70.00 MPH SHERMAN NE AMATEUR RADIO

0847 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N AMHERST 40.91N 99.27W
05/30/2011 BUFFALO NE STORM CHASER

CHASER REPORTS LARGE GUSTNADO POSSIBLY 1/2 MILE WIDE WITH
TIPPED OVER IRRIGATION SYSTEMS.

0851 PM TORNADO 8 ENE KEARNEY 40.74N 98.94W
05/30/2011 BUFFALO NE STORM CHASER

DELAYED REPORT OF LIKELY GUSTNADO ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
STORM

0851 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAVENNA 41.03N 98.91W
05/30/2011 E70.00 MPH BUFFALO NE PUBLIC

0851 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N KEARNEY 40.72N 99.08W
05/30/2011 BUFFALO NE STORM CHASER

POWER FLASHES

0858 PM TSTM WND GST PHILLIPSBURG AIRPORT 39.74N 99.32W
05/30/2011 M58.00 MPH PHILLIPS KS AWOS

MEASURED AT PHILLIPSBURG AIRPORT

0920 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N GRAND ISLAND 40.94N 98.37W
05/30/2011 E70.00 MPH HALL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W
05/30/2011 HALL NE AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON C STREET BETWEEN CUSTER AND BROADWELL

0930 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
05/30/2011 M74.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

MEASURED AT AIRPORT

0934 PM TSTM WND GST HASTINGS AIRPORT 40.60N 98.43W
05/30/2011 M53.00 MPH ADAMS NE ASOS

PEAK WIND GUST SO FAR AT HASTINGS AIRPORT

0940 PM TSTM WND GST DANNEBROG 41.12N 98.55W
05/30/2011 E75.00 MPH HOWARD NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WIND SPEED REPORT

0944 PM HAIL ALTON 39.47N 98.95W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH OSBORNE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 PM TSTM WND GST PHILLIPS 40.90N 98.21W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH HAMILTON NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0945 PM HAIL 9 S SMITH CENTER 39.65N 98.78W
05/30/2011 E0.50 INCH SMITH KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0948 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
05/30/2011 M59.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

WIND STILL GUSTING TO 59 MPH AT AIRPORT

0953 PM TSTM WND GST SMITH CENTER AIRPORT 39.76N 98.79W
05/30/2011 M69.00 MPH SMITH KS AWOS

60KT WIND GUSTS AT AIRPORT

0955 PM TSTM WND GST AURORA AIRPORT 40.89N 97.99W
05/30/2011 M68.00 MPH HAMILTON NE AWOS

MEASURED AT AURORA AIRPORT

1007 PM HAIL 2 S GUIDE ROCK 40.04N 98.33W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH WEBSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

1009 PM HAIL 6 N ESBON 39.91N 98.43W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH JEWELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1010 PM TSTM WND GST BURR OAK 39.87N 98.30W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH JEWELL KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1011 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S GUIDE ROCK 40.04N 98.33W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH WEBSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

1018 PM HAIL 9 W CLAY CENTER 40.52N 98.23W
05/30/2011 E0.50 INCH CLAY NE EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL

1029 PM TSTM WND GST SUPERIOR 40.02N 98.07W
05/30/2011 E70.00 MPH NUCKOLLS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 PM HAIL 2 E HARVARD 40.62N 98.06W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH CLAY NE EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS. RELAYED FROM SPOTTER.


1037 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE WEBBER 39.95N 98.00W
05/30/2011 M72.00 MPH JEWELL KS BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED AT HOME WEATHER STATION. REPORTED FROM MEDIA.

1049 PM TSTM WND GST TIPTON 39.34N 98.47W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH MITCHELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1050 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N STRANG 40.43N 97.59W
05/30/2011 FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

3 GRAIN BINS BLOWN OFF FOUNDATIONS...UNSECURED TRAILER
ROLLED OFF FOUNDATION...IRRIGATION PIPE BLOWN AROUND.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [312011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 312011
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N STRANG 40.43N 97.59W
05/30/2011 FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

3 GRAIN BINS BLOWN OFF FOUNDATIONS...UNSECURED TRAILER
ROLLED OFF FOUNDATION...IRRIGATION PIPE BLOWN AROUND.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1041

ACUS11 KWNS 312008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312007
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-312200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH / NW PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312007Z - 312200Z

SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE MARKED BY A REGION OF TCU EXTENDING FROM NEAR CMH NNE TO
NEAR CLE. AN ADDITIONAL CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM CLE INTO NW PA.

DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY COOL MID
LVL TEMPS /AROUND MINUS 12C AT 500 MB/ HAVE RESULTED IN SIZABLE
SBCAPE ACROSS REGION...WITH VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD
FORM/INCREASE ALONG BOTH CONFLUENCE ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AS STRONG...NEGATIVE TILT UPR MS VORT LOBE PIVOTS NE ACROSS WI/LK
MI. BUT CONTINUED HEATING/LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG CONFLUENCE
AXES...COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WSWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SERN
EXTENSION OF UPR IMPULSE...SUGGEST THAT SETUP MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WIND. WHILE THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ONLY LOOSELY-ORGANIZED...STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS AND...GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...MAY REQUIRE A WW LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF NRN OH/NW
PA.

..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41657928 41018039 40248136 39958243 40978218 41648153
42087956 41657928

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KCTP [312006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 312006
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM TORNADO KNOXVILLE 41.96N 77.44W
05/30/2011 TIOGA PA NWS STORM SURVEY

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF1
TORNADO IN KNOXVILLE IN TIOGA COUNTY FROM A STORM THAT
CROSSED THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN ON FORK HILL...ABOUT HALF A MILE NORTHWEST
OF THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 249 AND ROUTE 49. THE
TORNADO TRAVELED EASTWARD ACROSS KNOXVILLE...JUST TO THE
NORTH OF ROUTE 49...BEFORE LIFTING ROUGHLY HALF A MILE
EAST OF ACADEMY CORNERS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100222

$$

EVANEGO

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KLOT [312004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 312004
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL 1 NNE BLOOMINGDALE 41.96N 88.08W
05/31/2011 M0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL COCORAHS


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [312003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 312003
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM HAIL 1 NNW CAROL STREAM 41.93N 88.14W
05/31/2011 E1.00 INCH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

MAINLY BETWEEN PENNY AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WITH A FEW
QUARTER SIZED HAILSTONES MIXED IN.


&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311959
SWODY1
SPC AC 311957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...20Z UPDATE...

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE NOW MIGRATING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...18Z RAOBS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXHIBIT PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE /1000-2000 J PER
KG/ IN THE PRESENCE OF A SHEARED AND MODESTLY STRONG WESTERLY DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT/. SOME STRENGTHENING OF WIND
FIELDS APPEARS LIKELY AS THE BROADER SCALE UPSTREAM CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE REMAINS UNCLEAR.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA REMAINS
WEAK. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
OR ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED BELOW THE MODERATE RISK THRESHOLD
DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING POTENTIAL STORM
COVERAGE...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN APPEARS LIKE IT COULD SUPPORT STRONG GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65
KT WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS AND TO THE LEE
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FOCUS
IS UNCLEAR...BUT SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
NOW...ADJUSTED TO WHERE BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
WELL UNDERWAY.

..KERR.. 05/31/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011/

A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ROTATE QUICKLY
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN
ASSOCIATED 80-90 KNOT MID LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO MI. THE RESULT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER
MUCH OF MI. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
3000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY INVOLVES THE MODE OF THE CONVECTION.

IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN WI AND UPPER MI...SPREADING
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI. MORNING MESOSCALE
AND OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION... RANGING
FROM A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO TO BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS. ALSO
NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CORRIDOR MOST LIKELY TO HAVE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
PERHAPS NORTHERN OH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS...HAVE
OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE RISK DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE RIGHT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OCCURS.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND LIKELY WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE AS FAR
EAST AS NORTHERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES.

...TX/NM/OK...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST TX...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURNING RICH MOISTURE
INTO REGION. BY EARLY EVENING...MODERATE CAPE WITH WEAK CINH ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT A CONCENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

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KBIS [311959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 311959
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ROLLA 48.86N 99.62W
05/31/2011 M58 MPH ROLETTE ND AWOS

WIND GUST AT ROLLA AWOS SITE.


&&

$$

RK

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KLOT [311958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 311958
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0247 PM HAIL BATAVIA 41.85N 88.30W
05/31/2011 E1.00 INCH KANE IL PUBLIC

DOWNTOWN BATAVIA AT ROUTE 31 AND WILSON.


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [311951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLOT 311951
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0242 PM HAIL 1 NW VILLA PARK 41.90N 87.99W
05/31/2011 E0.50 INCH DUPAGE IL COCORAHS

AT THE CORNER OF DOUGLAS AND KIRK ROAD.


&&

$$

RC

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KMFR [311950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 311950
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1250 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT SHASTA 41.32N 122.32W
05/31/2011 M0.93 INCH SISKIYOU CA CO-OP OBSERVER

OCCURED BETWEEN 4AM AND 1230...MIXED SNOW ABOUT 8AM THIS
MORNING...


&&

$$

BUNKER

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KLOT [311950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 311950
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM HAIL 1 NW VILLA PARK 41.90N 87.99W
05/31/2011 E0.50 INCH DUPAGE IL COCORAHS

AT THE CORNER OF DOUGLAS AND KIRK ROAD.


&&

$$

RC

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KMFR [311949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 311949
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1249 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE BROOKINGS 42.05N 124.26W
05/31/2011 M1.71 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KLOT [311948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 311948
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM HAIL WEST CHICAGO 41.89N 88.22W
05/31/2011 E0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL EMERGENCY MNGR

CREST ROAD AND IL ROUTE 38.


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [311942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 311942
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
242 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL BATAVIA 41.85N 88.30W
05/31/2011 E0.25 INCH KANE IL CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [311938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 311938
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
238 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL 6 W SUGAR GROVE 41.77N 88.58W
05/31/2011 E0.75 INCH KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZED HAIL IN BIG ROCK.


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [311935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 311935
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
235 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM HAIL SUGAR GROVE 41.77N 88.46W
05/31/2011 E1.00 INCH KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RC

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 408

WWUS20 KWNS 311933
SEL8
SPC WW 311933
ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHAMPAIGN
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER IL. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE
A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HART

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KMQT [311926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 311926
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
226 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SE PELKIE 46.81N 88.61W
05/31/2011 E60.00 MPH BARAGA MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KEC

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KGRB [311917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 311917
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
217 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0159 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHERWOOD 44.17N 88.27W
05/31/2011 M52 MPH CALUMET WI TRAINED SPOTTER

EXPOSED BLUFF ON EAST SHORE OF LAKE WINNEBAGO.


&&

$$

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KMQT [311916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 311916
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0207 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WSW BARAGA 46.75N 88.58W
05/31/2011 BARAGA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

25 FOOT MAPLE TREE SNAPPED...APPROXIMATELY 10 INCHES IN
DIAMETER.


&&

$$

KEC

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KRAH [311907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 311907
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
307 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL 4 WSW MIDDLEBURG 36.39N 78.39W
05/27/2011 M1.00 INCH VANCE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON SPRING VALLEY LAKE ROAD


&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100717

$$

BLAES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1040

ACUS11 KWNS 311800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311759
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-312030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MID MS VLY INTO IND AND SRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311759Z - 312030Z

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SE MB UPR LOW ATTM EXTENDS FROM FAR ERN
IA SSW INTO CNTRL MO. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY E INTO WRN
IL AND ERN MO THROUGH THE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REMNANTS OF
OVERNIGHT MCS IN NEB AND THE DAKOTAS...IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS...ARE NOW OVER N CNTRL AND W CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
OFFSET SFC HEATING/MAINTAINED SIZABLE SFC-BASED CINH OVER THE NW
HALF OF IL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS HAVE SERVED TO
MINIMIZE DEEP MIXING OVER THE REGION...WHILE DEEPER MIXING HAS
OCCURRED E OF THE CLOUDS INTO PARTS OF IND/LWR MI. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN AN AREA OF VEERED LOW LVL FLOW/DECREASED LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE FROM ERN IL INTO NRN IND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL IA NNW INTO NW MN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CONTINUE PIVOTING NE TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING LIKELY TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE
FROM CNTRL IL WSWWD INTO MO.

AFOREMENTIONED PRESENCE OF CLOUDS...THE SOMEWHAT WEAKENED/DISRUPTED
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FIELD...AND THE DEPARTURE OF STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT...CAST SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE DETAILS OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION FROM MO/IL INTO IND/SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION...HEATING...WHILE MUTED ATTM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS MCS CLOUDS FURTHER DISSIPATE. GIVEN THIS SETUP...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO FORM IN MORE STRONGLY
HEATING/CONFLUENT AREA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN SW LWR MI...IT
APPEARS THAT A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE REGION INCLUDING THE CHICAGO...MILWAUKEE...DETROIT...AND PERHAPS
ST LOUIS METRO AREAS BY MID AFTN.

..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...
DVN...

LAT...LON 39248926 39029015 38949121 39649175 41079043 42628922
42968761 42678374 41938383 40278679 39248926

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407

WWUS20 KWNS 311754
SEL7
SPC WW 311754
MIZ000-WIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-010200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN LOWER AND MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ALPENA MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART

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KSGF [311737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311737
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HAIL 5 S SUNRISE BEACH 38.10N 92.78W
05/31/2011 E0.75 INCH CAMDEN MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

JSS

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KGRB [311736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 311736
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLOVER 44.45N 89.53W
05/31/2011 PORTAGE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 50 MPH. 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE
BRANCH SNAPPPED. TRAMPOLINE OVERTURN.


&&

$$

SAC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED AT MID-LEVELS ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS
ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AS A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS
THROUGH SEASONABLY STRONG FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIG FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ANOTHER
LIFTS INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
IN BETWEEN...SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/
OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z THURSDAY...
WHILE RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THE SAME TIME...SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE MUCH OF THE WEST BEGINS TO
COOL.

...EASTERN STATES...
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE COLD
FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
PROBABLY WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL LEE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. CONDITIONS NEAR THESE SURFACE FEATURES MAY BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WEDNESDAY...AND
CATEGORICAL/PROBABILITY LINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WILL ADVECT
NORTHEAST OF THE PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND INCREASING INHIBITION CONTRIBUTES TO UNCERTAIN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT VIGOROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN A LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ZONE...NEAR THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAK SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
THE INITIATION OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...MODERATELY LARGE CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR...ENHANCED BY
PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTER OR TWO DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/31/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1039

ACUS11 KWNS 311700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311700
MIZ000-WIZ000-311930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311700Z - 311930Z

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WRN ONT THROUGH WRN WI INTO ERN IA. THE FRONT IS MOVING ENE
AT ABOUT 30 KT AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN UPR MI THROUGH CNTRL WI
INTO FAR ERN IA BY EARLY AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RADAR AND VWP
DATA SHOW A LOW LVL WIND SHIFT LINE LEFT OVER FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS
IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB. THIS LINE IS JUST NOW CROSSING LK MI...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AS THE COLD FRONT.
FINALLY...IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
WIND SHIFT LINE...TCU ARE GROWING OVER THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI.

ATTM...WATER IMAGERY AND PROFILER/VWP DATA SHOW A STRONG N-S
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CNTRL MN BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS IMPULSE...MARKED BY AN 80 KT 500 MB JET STREAK ...SHOULD
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MI LATER TODAY WHILE THE PARENT UPR
LOW EDGES MORE SLOWLY ENE FROM MB INTO ONT.

COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SFC HEATING...LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE EXPECTED TO FOSTER RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THE
WIND SHIFT LINE...AND WITHIN THE TCU FIELD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS
INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING SQLNS. EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS IN THE SQLNS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY DMGG WIND...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES.

..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON 44059036 45549029 46669035 47258982 47408713 46388392
45278304 44158353 43458536 43658933 44059036

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KGGW [311659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 311659
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1058 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE HOMESTEAD 48.37N 104.46W
05/31/2011 M1.77 INCH ROOSEVELT MT CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0530 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW HINSDALE 48.35N 107.15W
05/31/2011 M2.04 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...STILL RAINING.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
05/31/2011 M1.72 INCH DAWSON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...STILL RAINING.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
05/31/2011 M1.55 INCH VALLEY MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...STILL RAINING.

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N PLENTYWOOD 48.79N 104.56W
05/31/2011 M0.90 INCH SHERIDAN MT MESONET

PLENTYWOOD HANDAR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN MALTA 48.36N 107.87W
05/31/2011 M1.20 INCH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MALTA HANDAR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN WINNETT 47.00N 108.35W
05/31/2011 M1.10 INCH PETROLEUM MT MESONET

WINNETT HANDAR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0655 AM HEAVY RAIN S NAVAJO 48.79N 105.06W
05/31/2011 M2.19 INCH DANIELS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 15 SSE CULBERTSON 47.93N 104.45W
05/31/2011 M1.46 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE YATES 46.91N 104.05W
05/31/2011 M1.90 INCH WIBAUX MT TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 1.90 INCHES STORM TOTAL PRECIP.


&&

$$

RMORGAN

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KBMX [311639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 311639
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW STROUD 33.02N 85.35W
05/26/2011 CHAMBERS AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER POLES WERE KNOCKED DOWN AROUND
THE COMMUNITY OF FIVE POINTS.


&&

$$

HB

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KBMX [311635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 311635
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG LAFAYETTE 32.90N 85.40W
05/26/2011 CHAMBERS AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN AROUND LAFAYETTE.


&&

$$

HB

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KABR [311632]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KABR 311632
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1131 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N ANDOVER 45.43N 97.90W
05/30/2011 E60.00 MPH DAY SD PUBLIC

GRAIN BIN TIPPED OVER. EMPTY 12,000 GALLON FEUL TANK
MOVED ACOASS YARD. HOPPER AND TRAILER TIPPED OVER.

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG PIERPONT 45.50N 97.83W
05/30/2011 DAY SD EMERGENCY MNGR

3 POWER POLES SNAPPED. ROOF OFF OF HOUSE AND BAR. WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 80 MPH.

0745 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW HILLHEAD 45.80N 97.45W
05/30/2011 M65.00 MPH MARSHALL SD MESONET

MARSHALL COUNTY RAWS REPORTED 65MPH WIND GUST IN 759PM
CDT OBSERVATION. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0805 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S NEW EFFINGTON 45.84N 96.92W
05/30/2011 ROBERTS SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

POLE BARN BLOWN DOWN.

0808 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N VICTOR 45.90N 96.84W
05/30/2011 ROBERTS SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOOD SIZE TREE BLOWN DOWN.

0810 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNE VICTOR 45.92N 96.80W
05/30/2011 ROBERTS SD CO-OP OBSERVER

100-YEAR-OLD TREE UPROOTED...LIFTING UP CONCRETE AROUND
IT AND FALLING ONTO A HOUSE. DOORS WERE RIPPED OFF A
BUILDING A COUPLE MILES AWAY.

0839 PM HAIL 1 N WATERTOWN 44.93N 97.17W
05/30/2011 E1.00 INCH CODINGTON SD PUBLIC

DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL


&&

$$

CONNELLY

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