MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1042

ACUS11 KWNS 312032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312031
TXZ000-NMZ000-312230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...S PLAINS TO THE TRANS-PECOS OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 312031Z - 312230Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 22-00Z AND ATTAIN
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW
ISSUANCE BY 23Z IS 60 PERCENT.

20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOWLY RETREATING/DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT FROM 20 SE CNM TO 30 S LBB TO 20 S CSM. CU FIELD APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING INVOF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SWD
THROUGH THE WRN TX MTNS. APPARENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL NM WILL OVERSPREAD
THE BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT
IN INCREASING FORCED ASCENT SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL AXIS BY 00Z...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO LIKELY
FORM IN THE WRN TX MTNS OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /40 KT AT 6 KM AGL/ ATTENDANT TO THE S-CNTRL
NM IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN TIME-SERIES SAMPLING OF THE WHITE SANDS NM
PROFILER. THIS SPEED MAX ALONG WITH LARGE DIRECTIONAL VEERING FROM
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES GIVEN THE STRONGLY BUOYANT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR. GIVEN DEEP-LAYER WLYS ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL AXIS...MODE SHOULD TRANSITION TO
CLUSTER WITH MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT SWD IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SETUP SHOULD YIELD LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AS THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ALSO
CONCEIVABLE.

..GRAMS.. 05/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33060190 32110324 31470346 30880323 30490295 30240305
30020412 30240450 31210494 32060492 33070453 33610367
34040285 34270192 34070133 33530120 33060190

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