Sunday, September 23, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240025
SWODY1
SPC AC 240023

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DEEP S TX...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE RIO GRADE
VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY
CROSS THE BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WEAKENING THIS EVENING.

...SRN MO INTO AR...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PERSIST ATOP RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE BUT BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH NW FLOW. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE WITH
MIDLEVEL CONVECTION FROM SRN MO INTO AR THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE WEAK.

...ORE/ID INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
DESPITE THE EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW WITH VERY
COOL AIR ALOFT. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY BUT VERY SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.

..JEWELL.. 09/24/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231939
SWODY1
SPC AC 231938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE TX/SRN LA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FORMATION ACROSS PARTS OF E TX
THROUGH CENTRAL LA TO SWRN MS...WITH LESS COVERAGE FARTHER S AND
INLAND OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND IN SERN LA. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOIST CONVECTION RESULTING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS RATHER LOW. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK HAS
REMOVED THE GENERAL TSTM AREA FORECAST EARLIER FOR PARTS OF SE TX
INTO SRN LA.

...PARTS OF COASTAL S TX...
TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUGGEST ANY NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT YET THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WWD MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
THUS...THE COASTAL AREAS FROM INVOF CRP TO 60 N BRO HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE GENERAL TSTM FORECAST.

...ELSEWHERE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..PETERS.. 09/23/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN TROUGH WHICH COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN CONUS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY MOVE
CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN A COOL AND DRY POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER
W...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAKDOWN
OF AN UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST SSWWD INTO S-CNTRL GA THEN WNWWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...DEMARCATED PRIMARILY BY A
MOISTURE GRADIENT. A LARGE SFC HIGH COVER MOST OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP ESEWD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS TRANSLATION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
SUBSEQUENT NRN PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ALONG THE RED
RIVER IS ANTICIPATED.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW MOVES SEWD. MEAGER MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.6 INCH ON THE 12Z
LKN AND BOI RAOBS/ SHOULD KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED AND NO SEVERE
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.

...S TX...
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW VALUES SHOW AN INCREASING TREND AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY. DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE THIS OCCURS FOR SCATTERED
TSTMS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS S OF CRP.
SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT THE CHANCE
OF SEVERE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY PROBABILITIES.

...SE TX/SRN LA...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
AR WILL CONTINUE SEWD...SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS...ACROSS LA. 12Z SOUNDINGS DEPICTED A POCKET OF COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AT LCH AND LIX. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LIFT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NMM4 AND NSSL WRF SHOW SOME ACTIVITY BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
DOES NOT GENERATE CONVECTION. IF ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP...SOME GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY PROBABILITIES.

...OZARKS...
A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AIDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TSTMS BUT MEAGER COVERAGE AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITIES.

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KAPX [231841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231841
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
241 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM HAIL 5 SW BRETHREN 44.25N 86.09W
09/23/2012 E0.25 INCH MANISTEE MI PUBLIC


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KAPX [231841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231841
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
241 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0138 PM HAIL FREDERIC 44.79N 84.73W
09/23/2012 E0.25 INCH CRAWFORD MI PUBLIC


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KAPX [231840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231840
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL LINCOLN 44.69N 83.41W
09/23/2012 E0.25 INCH ALCONA MI PUBLIC

HAIL FALLING FAST ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND.


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KCLE [231833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 231833
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
233 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM WATER SPOUT 3 NW LORAIN 41.47N 82.22W
09/23/2012 LEZ145 OH PUBLIC

1106 AM WATER SPOUT 1 N SHEFFIELD LAKE 41.50N 82.10W
09/23/2012 LEZ145 OH TRAINED SPOTTER

1149 AM WATER SPOUT 2 NE SHEFFIELD LAKE 41.51N 82.07W
09/23/2012 LEZ145 OH TRAINED SPOTTER

1207 PM WATER SPOUT 2 N AVON LAKE 41.52N 82.02W
09/23/2012 LEZ145 OH TRAINED SPOTTER

1231 PM WATER SPOUT 1 NW SHEFFIELD LAKE 41.50N 82.11W
09/23/2012 LEZ145 OH TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MITCHELL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH A RATHER LARGE CLOSED LOW/VORTEX WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
ERN CANADA THROUGH DAY 2...THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
SHIFTED NWD TO NRN QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SERN STATES...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EXPECTED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE SHOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES EWD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

...MID SOUTH /NERN AR...SERN MO TO WRN TN AND FAR NRN MS/...
A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 ACROSS
NERN AR...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EWD INTO FAR SERN MO AND WRN
TN/FAR NRN MS MON MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME BENEATH THE ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS...BUT
SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN TO ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A COMPACT LOW/TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OREGON...SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE ON MON AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SIMILAR TO DAY 1...THE
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH OVERALL MEAGER MOISTURE...AND
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

...LOWER MO/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LATE DAY 2 ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO MORE OF THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...AND THUS THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE EXTENDS THE GENERAL TSTM
AREA INTO MORE OF CENTRAL IND TO SWRN OH/ERN KY. A STRENGTHENING
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE LOWER MO TO LOWER OH VALLEYS MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND AN
INCREASE IN A SWLY LLJ INTO THESE SAME REGIONS. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THESE FEATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NRN MO TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE HAIL
THREAT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 09/23/2012

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KAPX [231706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231706
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
106 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL MANCELONA 44.90N 85.06W
09/23/2012 E0.25 INCH ANTRIM MI NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS IN AND AROUND TOWN.


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KGRR [231656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 231656
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1256 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM HAIL HOPKINS 42.62N 85.76W
09/23/2012 E0.25 INCH ALLEGAN MI PUBLIC

LASTED 5 TO 8 MINUTES. MOST LESS THAN PEA SIZE.


&&

$$

MEADE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231610
SWODY1
SPC AC 231608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN TROUGH WHICH COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN CONUS WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY MOVE
CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN A COOL AND DRY POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER
W...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAKDOWN
OF AN UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST SSWWD INTO S-CNTRL GA THEN WNWWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...DEMARCATED PRIMARILY BY A
MOISTURE GRADIENT. A LARGE SFC HIGH COVER MOST OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP ESEWD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS TRANSLATION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
SUBSEQUENT NRN PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ALONG THE RED
RIVER IS ANTICIPATED.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW MOVES SEWD. MEAGER MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.6 INCH ON THE 12Z
LKN AND BOI RAOBS/ SHOULD KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED AND NO SEVERE
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.

...S TX...
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW VALUES SHOW AN INCREASING TREND AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY. DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE THIS OCCURS FOR SCATTERED
TSTMS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS S OF CRP.
SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT THE CHANCE
OF SEVERE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY PROBABILITIES.

...SE TX/SRN LA...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
AR WILL CONTINUE SEWD...SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS...ACROSS LA. 12Z SOUNDINGS DEPICTED A POCKET OF COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AT LCH AND LIX. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LIFT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NMM4 AND NSSL WRF SHOW SOME ACTIVITY BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
DOES NOT GENERATE CONVECTION. IF ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP...SOME GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY PROBABILITIES.

...OZARKS...
A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AIDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TSTMS BUT MEAGER COVERAGE AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITIES.

..MOSIER.. 09/23/2012

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KPBZ [231557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 231557
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1157 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG SALINEVILLE 40.62N 80.83W
09/22/2012 COLUMBIANA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE AND POWER LINES REPERTED DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201041

$$



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KPBZ [231555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 231555
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1155 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG EAST LIVERPOOL 40.62N 80.58W
09/22/2012 COLUMBIANA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE AND POWER LINES REPOTED DOWN .


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201040

$$



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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231222
SWODY1
SPC AC 231220

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NM AND PARTS OF TX EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND FL...MOST OF THE NATION EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LIES
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS AND WAS SITUATED OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BEFORE EXTENDING
INLAND AND WEST FROM GA TO TX...THEN NNWWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ESEWD
FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING REMAINING AREAS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NRN FL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST NWWD INTO TX WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS.

PERSISTENT SW/GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS HEIGHT FALLS
WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WA/ORE SPREAD SEWD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

...ERN ORE TO GREAT BASIN...
TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE AS LIFT WITH THE ADVANCING MID/UPPER TROUGH
SPREADS ESEWD INTO A MOISTURE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC. DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT.

...SRN PLAINS...
SLOPED ASCENT ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT OVER TX/OK WAS LIKELY BEING
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION AND
SUSTAINING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK ELEVATED STORMS FROM KS TO WRN
AR ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS
DIURNAL WEAKENING OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS.

...TX/LA...
DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT...FROM SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS SRN LA...WILL BOOST AFTERNOON
SBCAPE TO OVER 2000 J/KG. MODELS HAVE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO WHETHER
DEEP CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ON OR NEAR THE FRONT IN THESE AREAS.
REGION WILL LIE BENEATH WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT PERSISTENT LIFT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY AID
ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. GIVEN LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODEL
SIGNAL...ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED
SO SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR UNWARRANTED AT THIS TIME. IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS...A LOW PROBABILITY
SEVERE HAIL/WIND AREA MAY BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...OZARKS LATE...
ELEVATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS AR AS SLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE ENHANCED IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL AND TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
PRECLUDE THE ADDITION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN/BOTHWELL.. 09/23/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230842
SWOD48
SPC AC 230841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH DIFFERENCES DO BEGIN TO EMERGE DAYS 6-8
WHICH COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.

STILL...THE OVERALL EVOLUTION IS FOR A FAIRLY SLACK UPPER FLOW FIELD
ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH DAY 6...WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED/FASTER FLOW
CONFINED TO CANADA. GIVEN THIS...LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EVIDENT.

..GOSS.. 09/23/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230730
SWODY3
SPC AC 230729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM UNDERGOES SOME
WEAKENING WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...THE SMALL UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS LIKEWISE PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. STILL...THIS FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN THE WEST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED -- BOTH WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING WRN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT PAC NW.

...KS ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST...
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...AS DAYTIME HEATING
REACHES ITS MAXIMUM. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- LIKELY
ONGOING EARLY INVOF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY IN AN ELEVATED LAYER
OF WARM ADVECTION -- SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF THE
FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO THE KS VICINITY.
AIDED BY 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER
CELLS MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MARGINAL SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/23/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230609
SWODY2
SPC AC 230607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS PERIOD...AS ONE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE EXITS THE NORTHEAST
AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE...LONG-WAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEST -- THOUGH A
SMALLER-WAVELENGTH UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY GIVE
WAY TO A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT SE OF THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT
IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS -- THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
HERE TOO...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 09/23/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230517
SWODY1
SPC AC 230515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PROSPECT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME
ACROSS THE CONUS SUNDAY AS DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES SEWD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SRN FL PENINSULA BEFORE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED INTO THE STRAITS AND A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM SRN
KS INTO AR WHERE LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE.

ACROSS THE WRN U.S...STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM ID INTO UT
WHERE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER
LOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL BE TOO SHALLOW/WEAK
TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE.

..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/23/2012

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