DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230730
SWODY3
SPC AC 230729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM UNDERGOES SOME
WEAKENING WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...THE SMALL UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS LIKEWISE PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. STILL...THIS FRONT SHOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN THE WEST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED -- BOTH WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING WRN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT PAC NW.

...KS ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST...
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...AS DAYTIME HEATING
REACHES ITS MAXIMUM. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- LIKELY
ONGOING EARLY INVOF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY IN AN ELEVATED LAYER
OF WARM ADVECTION -- SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF THE
FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO THE KS VICINITY.
AIDED BY 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER
CELLS MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MARGINAL SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/23/2012

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