KOKX [120227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KOKX 120227
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1026 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD CLARK 40.62N 74.31W
10/11/2007 UNION NJ PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING

0425 PM FLASH FLOOD LONG BEACH 40.59N 73.67W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING INTO LOCAL STOREFRONTS

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD VALLEY STREAM 40.66N 73.71W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

0442 PM FLASH FLOOD ELIZABETH 40.67N 74.19W
10/11/2007 UNION NJ CO-OP OBSERVER

RESCUES OCCURRING AT SOUTH BURNETT STREET

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD SECAUCUS 40.78N 74.06W
10/11/2007 HUDSON NJ BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON ROUTE 3

0458 PM FLASH FLOOD MALVERNE 40.67N 73.67W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING WITH RESCUES

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD WEST HEMPSTEAD 40.70N 73.65W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON SOUTHERN STATE PARKWAY

0503 PM FLASH FLOOD HEMPSTEAD 40.70N 73.62W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY FLOODING

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E WESTBURY 40.76N 73.49W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON WANTAGH STATE PARKWAY

0512 PM FLASH FLOOD BRENTWOOD 40.78N 73.25W
10/11/2007 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON SAGTIKOS PKWY AND BETWEEN LONG ISLAND
EXPRESSWAY AND PINE AIRE DRIVE

0555 PM FLASH FLOOD RAHWAY 40.61N 74.28W
10/11/2007 UNION NJ PUBLIC

STREET FLOODING

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N BABYLON 40.71N 73.33W
10/11/2007 SUFFOLK NY PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ON RTE 231

0614 PM FLASH FLOOD BENSONHURST 40.62N 73.99W
10/11/2007 KINGS NY BROADCAST MEDIA

BELT PARKWAY AT BAY PARKWAY FLOODING

0619 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N JAMAICA 40.74N 73.79W
10/11/2007 QUEENS NY BROADCAST MEDIA

VAN WYCK EXPRESSWAY AT JEWEL AVENUE FLOODING

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD ASTORIA 40.78N 73.91W
10/11/2007 QUEENS NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON GRAND CENTRAL PARKWAY EAST AT HOYT AVENUE

0623 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW WOODLAWN 40.88N 73.88W
10/11/2007 BRONX NY BROADCAST MEDIA

HENRY HUDSON PARKWAY AT 232ND STREET FLOODING

0652 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW CENTRAL PARK 40.79N 73.97W
10/11/2007 NEW YORK NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON WEST SIDE HIGHWAY

0715 PM FLASH FLOOD STAMFORD 41.02N 73.56W
10/11/2007 FAIRFIELD CT BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF STREETS AND BASEMENTS

0715 PM FLASH FLOOD NORWALK 41.09N 73.42W
10/11/2007 FAIRFIELD CT BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF STREETS AND BASEMENTS

0715 PM FLASH FLOOD NEW CANAAN 41.14N 73.49W
10/11/2007 FAIRFIELD CT BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF STREETS AND BASEMENTS

0716 PM FLASH FLOOD THORNWOOD 41.11N 73.76W
10/11/2007 WESTCHESTER NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON SAW MILL PARKWAY

0719 PM FLASH FLOOD MOUNT VERNON 40.91N 73.83W
10/11/2007 WESTCHESTER NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON HUTCHINSON RIVER PARKWAY

0721 PM FLASH FLOOD EAST ISLIP 40.73N 73.19W
10/11/2007 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON SUNRISE HIGHWAY

0721 PM FLASH FLOOD MINEOLA 40.75N 73.64W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA

JERICHO TPKE AT WILLIS AVE FLOODED

0752 PM FLASH FLOOD JERICHO 40.79N 73.54W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON NORTHERN STATE PARKWAY

&&

$$

JC

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KMAF [120159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMAF 120159
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
858 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM HAIL ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
10/11/2007 M1.00 INCH ECTOR TX PUBLIC

MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT
THE INTERSECTION OF DIXIE AN 52ND STREET.

0453 PM HAIL ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
10/11/2007 M1.75 INCH ECTOR TX PUBLIC

MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AT THE
RATLIFF STADIUM IN ODESSA.

0508 PM HAIL ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
10/11/2007 M1.50 INCH ECTOR TX PUBLIC

PING PONG SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
UNIVERSITY AND HANCOCK IN ODESSA.

0635 PM HAIL 18 WNW CRANE 31.49N 102.63W
10/11/2007 E0.75 INCH CRANE TX PUBLIC

MARBLE TO PENNY SIZE

0641 PM HAIL 18 WNW CRANE 31.49N 102.63W
10/11/2007 M0.88 INCH CRANE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

PECOS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED NICKEL HAIL ALONG
TEXAS STATE HIGHWAY 1053.

&&

$$

MEFFERSO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120043
SWODY1
SPC AC 120041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..RI AND SERN MA...
VIGOROUS 996MB SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS RI AND ERN MA ON ITS WAY TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY
WITH CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT NOW EXPANDING OVER CT
AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE
LOW AND WARM FRONT WAS CURRENTLY COINCIDENT WITH A MOIST MARITIME
AIR MASS THAT HAS SO FAR REMAINED OFFSHORE. HIREZ WRF AND MESOSCALE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT PERHAPS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...FOR WEAK SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR INLAND
ACROSS RI AND SERN MA AS THE LOW TRACKS NEAR/OVER THESE AREAS
TONIGHT. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT
NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IF WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION CAN BE OVERCOME BY STORM SCALE
PROCESSES. MORE WIDESPREAD AIR MASS MODIFICATION/SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS UNLIKELY. GIVEN LIMITED TEMPORAL/AREAL EXTENT OF TORNADO
THREAT...AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORMATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION...ONLY A LOW FORECAST PROBABILITY IS WARRANTED FOR THIS
SCENARIO.

..KS...
NOCTURNAL TSTM INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER KS BY EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO FOLLOWING FACTORS... 1) INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...AND 2) WEAK
BACKGROUND ASCENT/DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING PORTION
OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CROSSING MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. SLOPED AIR
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WITH ORIGINS IN NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
SITUATED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD ACHIEVE AN LFC BETWEEN
800-700MB OVER CNTRL KS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE
WITH ONE OR TWO OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..WEST TX...
A COUPLE OF ROBUST SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING SSWWD
ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE MOIST
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE. A NARROW
WINDOW OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS THESE CELLS MOVE
ACROSS VERY WARM AND UNPERTURBED AIR MASS FROM FORT STOCKTON SWD TO
THE RIO GRANDE. A DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO BASED ON DIURNAL CYCLE AND LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTING
LIMITED FORCING TO SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

.CARBIN.. 10/12/2007

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KLUB [120011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLUB 120011
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM HAIL 4 W TAHOKA 33.16N 101.86W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH LYNN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0427 PM HAIL MAPLE 33.85N 102.90W
10/11/2007 E2.50 INCH BAILEY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0447 PM HAIL 7 NW O'DONNELL 33.04N 101.92W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH LYNN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

RMCQUEEN

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KMAF [112359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 112359
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
658 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 PM HAIL 18 WNW CRANE 31.49N 102.63W
10/11/2007 M0.88 INCH CRANE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

PECOS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED NICKEL HAIL ALONG
TEXAS STATE HIGHWAY 1053.

&&

$$

MEFFERSO

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KKEY [112357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 112357
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
755 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 PM WATER SPOUT 10 SSW KEY WEST 24.42N 81.82W
10/11/2007 GMZ075 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

A NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. IT BEGAN AT 616 PM AND ENDED AT
621 PM.

0628 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 SSW KEY WEST 24.42N 81.82W
10/11/2007 GMZ075 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

A NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A LARGE FUNNEL CLOUD ABOUT 10
MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. IT BEGAN AT 628 PM AND
ENDED AT 633 PM.

&&

$$

LEE

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KMAF [112347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 112347
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM HAIL 18 WNW CRANE 31.49N 102.63W
10/11/2007 E0.75 INCH CRANE TX PUBLIC

MARBLE TO PENNY SIZE

&&

$$

DH

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KMAF [112216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 112216
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
516 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM HAIL ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
10/11/2007 M1.50 INCH ECTOR TX PUBLIC

PING PONG SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
UNIVERSITY AND HANCOCK IN ODESSA.

&&

$$

MEFFERSO

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KLUB [112210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLUB 112210
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM HAIL 7 NW O'DONNELL 33.04N 101.92W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH LYNN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

RMCQUEEN

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KLUB [112208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 112208
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
508 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM HAIL NW O'DONNELL 32.97N 101.83W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH LYNN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

RMCQUEEN

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KMAF [112208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 112208
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
508 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM HAIL ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
10/11/2007 M1.00 INCH ECTOR TX PUBLIC

MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT
THE INTERSECTION OF DIXIE AN 52ND STREET.

0453 PM HAIL ODESSA 31.85N 102.37W
10/11/2007 M1.75 INCH ECTOR TX PUBLIC

MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AT THE
RATLIFF STADIUM IN ODESSA.

&&

$$

MEFFERSO

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KOKX [112158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 112158
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
557 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM FLASH FLOOD LONG BEACH 40.59N 73.67W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING INTO LOCAL STOREFRONTS

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD VALLEY STREAM 40.66N 73.71W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

0442 PM FLASH FLOOD ELIZABETH 40.67N 74.19W
10/11/2007 UNION NJ CO-OP OBSERVER

RESCUES OCCURRING AT SOUTH BURNETT STREET

0458 PM FLASH FLOOD MALVERNE 40.67N 73.67W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING WITH RESCUES

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD WEST HEMPSTEAD 40.70N 73.65W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON SOUTHERN STATE PARKWAY

0503 PM FLASH FLOOD HEMPSTEAD 40.70N 73.62W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY FLOODING

0506 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E WESTBURY 40.76N 73.49W
10/11/2007 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON WANTAGH STATE PARKWAY

0512 PM FLASH FLOOD BRENTWOOD 40.78N 73.25W
10/11/2007 SUFFOLK NY BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ON SAGTIKOS PKWY AND BETWEEN LONG ISLAND
EXPRESSWAY AND PINE AIRE DRIVE

&&

$$

JC

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KAMA [112144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KAMA 112144
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
444 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM HAIL 5 E BOOTLEG 34.83N 102.73W
10/11/2007 M1.00 INCH DEAF SMITH TX EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER 00027

$$

JOHNSON

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KAMA [112143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 112143
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM HAIL 5 E BOOKER 36.46N 100.45W
10/11/2007 M1.00 INCH LIPSCOMB TX EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00027

$$

JOHNSON

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KLUB [112139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 112139
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
439 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM HAIL 4 W TAHOKA 33.16N 101.86W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH LYNN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0427 PM HAIL MAPLE 33.85N 102.90W
10/11/2007 E2.50 INCH BAILEY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

RMCQUEEN

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KKEY [112137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 112137
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
536 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM WATER SPOUT 10 SSW KEY WEST 24.42N 81.82W
10/11/2007 GMZ075 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER SPOUT WAS SPOTTED BY WEATHER SEVERVICE EMPLOYEE AND
MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
NWS KEY WEST

&&

$$

COTTRILL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2065

ACUS11 KWNS 112134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112134
TXZ000-NMZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112134Z - 112330Z

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TX AND FAR EASTERN NM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...IN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM NEAR/WEST OF LUBBOCK
TO MIDLAND/FORT STOCKTON AND THE BIG BEND AREA. EVEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OVER CENTRAL TX...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LEE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

AMPLE INSOLATION AND 55-63 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LUBBOCK/MIDLAND IMPLY
AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK...WITH TIME...SOME POTENTIAL
WOULD EXIST FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO EVOLVE VIA EXPANDING COLD
POOLS/FORWARD PROPAGATION AS STORMS PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.

.GUYER.. 10/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

34360252 32740089 30650035 29940231 30400420 32330439
33980361

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KPHI [112110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 112110
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL ATLANTIC CITY 39.36N 74.44W
10/11/2007 E0.25 INCH ATLANTIC NJ OTHER FEDERAL

HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE THE SIZE OF PEAS AT THE ATLANTIC
CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FAA TECHNICAL CENTER.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN LANSDALE 40.24N 75.28W
10/11/2007 M1.31 INCH MONTGOMERY PA MESONET

1.31 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT A MESONET SITE IN
LANSDALE.

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN DOYLESTOWN 40.31N 75.13W
10/11/2007 M1.92 INCH BUCKS PA MESONET

1.92 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT A MESONET SITE IN
DOYLESTOWN.

0245 PM HEAVY RAIN CALIFON 40.72N 74.84W
10/11/2007 M1.13 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1.13 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED BETWEEN 230 PM AND 245
PM IN CALIFON.

0255 PM HEAVY RAIN WRIGHTSTOWN 40.03N 74.63W
10/11/2007 M2.24 INCH BURLINGTON NJ ASOS

2.24 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED AT THE MCGUIRE AIR FORCE
BASE IN WRIGHTSTOWN.

0308 PM HAIL HACKETTSTOWN 40.85N 74.83W
10/11/2007 M0.25 INCH WARREN NJ PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HACKETTSTOWN.

0308 PM HEAVY RAIN HACKETTSTOWN 40.85N 74.83W
10/11/2007 M1.40 INCH WARREN NJ PUBLIC

1.40 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES IN
HACKETTSTOWN.

0308 PM FLOOD HACKETTSTOWN 40.85N 74.83W
10/11/2007 WARREN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

SOME STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN HACKETTSTOWN.

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S WRIGHTSTOWN 39.96N 74.63W
10/11/2007 M2.87 INCH BURLINGTON NJ OTHER FEDERAL

2.87 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN NEW LISBON.

0315 PM FLOOD WRIGHTSTOWN 40.03N 74.63W
10/11/2007 BURLINGTON NJ CO-OP OBSERVER

STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN WRIGHTSTOWN. 2.59 INCHES OF
RAIN ALSO REPORTED.

0340 PM HAIL 6 WSW DOVER 40.86N 74.66W
10/11/2007 E0.50 INCH MORRIS NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE REPORTED IN ROXBURY TOWNSHIP.

0345 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE HIGHTSTOWN 40.31N 74.51W
10/11/2007 M1.88 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ MESONET

1.88 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED AT A MESONET SITE IN
CRANBURY.

0415 PM HEAVY RAIN ISELIN 40.57N 74.32W
10/11/2007 M2.00 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

2.00 INCHES OF RAIN FELL BETWEEN 315 PM AND 415 PM IN
ISELIN.

0421 PM FLOOD SAYREVILLE 40.47N 74.32W
10/11/2007 MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING REPORTED AT THE FOOT OF THE
EDISON BRIDGE. STREET FLOODING ALSO REPORTED IN SOUTH
AMBOY AND NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

$$

GORSE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2064

ACUS11 KWNS 112021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112020
NYZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112020Z - 112145Z

NARROW WEDGE OF INSTABILITY HAS SURGED NWD TOWARD SRN PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. ONE
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL JUST SSE OF JFK FINALLY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WITHIN
SUSTAINED NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS FAVORED WARM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.

.DARROW.. 10/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...

40537391 40947359 41187228 40977177 40487310

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 112002
SWODY1
SPC AC 112000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NJ/NYC METRO INTO NEW ENGLAND...
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NJ THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...SHEAR
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS IN THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ AND NEAR THE NYC METRO
IN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT. LOCAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1
KM SHEAR OF 20 KT. LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK REMAINS WARRANTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR A BRIEF-LIVED DAMAGING WIND OR
TORNADO POSSIBILITY. AS STORMS MOVE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NY/FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN WEAKENING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. ALONG THESE LINES...AS OF
1945Z...SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OFF LONG ISLAND /25 S JFK/ SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
HAVE BEEN COMMON SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH
MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST
TX/SOUTHEAST NM. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF 55-65 F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER WESTERN TX
INTO SOUTHEAST NM...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTIVE OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY...PRIMARY
WEAKNESSES FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE THE MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /30 KT/ AND THE WEAKENING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL IMPULSES DAMPEN OUT.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE LIMITED TO THE 40S F AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...LATEST DETERMINISTIC/SREF GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF NORTHWEST KS LATER TONIGHT /PRIMARILY AFTER 03Z/.
THIS APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE NOSE OF A 35+ KT SLY LLJ AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA INDICATE MUCAPE MAY REACH 1000 J/KG WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT.

.GUYER/PETERS.. 10/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111958
SWODY1
SPC AC 111955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NJ/NYC METRO INTO NEW ENGLAND...
AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NJ THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...SHEAR
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS IN THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ AND NEAR THE NYC METRO
IN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT. LOCAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1
KM SHEAR OF 20 KT. LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK REMAINS WARRANTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR A BRIEF-LIVED DAMAGING WIND OR
TORNADO POSSIBILITY. AS STORMS MOVE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NY/FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN WEAKENING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. ALONG THESE LINES...AS OF
1945Z...SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OFF LONG ISLAND /25 S JFK/ SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
HAVE BEEN COMMON SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH
MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST
TX/SOUTHEAST NM. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUSTAIN A CORRIDOR OF 55-65 F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER WESTERN TX
INTO SOUTHEAST NM...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTIVE OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY...PRIMARY
WEAKNESSES FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE THE MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /30 KT/ AND THE WEAKENING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL IMPULSES DAMPEN OUT.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE LIMITED TO THE 40S F AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...LATEST DETERMINISTIC/SREF GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF NORTHWEST KS LATER TONIGHT /PRIMARILY AFTER 03Z/.
THIS APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE NOSE OF A 35+ KT SLY LLJ AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA INDICATE MUCAPE MAY REACH 1000 J/KG WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT.

.GUYER/PETERS.. 10/11/2007

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KPHI [111950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 111950
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL ATLANTIC CITY 39.36N 74.44W
10/11/2007 E0.25 INCH ATLANTIC NJ OTHER FEDERAL

HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE THE SIZE OF PEAS AT THE ATLANTIC
CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FAA TECHNICAL CENTER.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN LANSDALE 40.24N 75.28W
10/11/2007 M1.31 INCH MONTGOMERY PA MESONET

1.31 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT A MESONET SITE IN
LANSDALE.

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN DOYLESTOWN 40.31N 75.13W
10/11/2007 M1.92 INCH BUCKS PA MESONET

1.92 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT A MESONET SITE IN
DOYLESTOWN.

0245 PM HEAVY RAIN CALIFON 40.72N 74.84W
10/11/2007 M1.13 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1.13 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED BETWEEN 230 PM AND 245
PM IN CALIFON.

0255 PM HEAVY RAIN WRIGHTSTOWN 40.03N 74.63W
10/11/2007 M2.24 INCH BURLINGTON NJ ASOS

2.24 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED AT THE MCGUIRE AIR FORCE
BASE IN WRIGHTSTOWN.

0308 PM HAIL HACKETTSTOWN 40.85N 74.83W
10/11/2007 M0.25 INCH WARREN NJ PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HACKETTSTOWN.

0308 PM HEAVY RAIN HACKETTSTOWN 40.85N 74.83W
10/11/2007 M1.40 INCH WARREN NJ PUBLIC

1.40 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES IN
HACKETTSTOWN.

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S WRIGHTSTOWN 39.96N 74.63W
10/11/2007 M2.87 INCH BURLINGTON NJ OTHER FEDERAL

2.87 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN NEW LISBON.

0315 PM FLOOD WRIGHTSTOWN 40.03N 74.63W
10/11/2007 BURLINGTON NJ CO-OP OBSERVER

STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN WRIGHTSTOWN. 2.59 INCHES OF
RAIN ALSO REPORTED.

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE HIGHTSTOWN 40.31N 74.51W
10/11/2007 M1.87 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ MESONET

1.87 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED AT A MESONET SITE IN
CRANBURY.

&&

$$

GORSE

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KAMA [111934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 111934
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
234 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.05W
10/10/2007 E65 MPH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

0615 PM HAIL 8 W AMARILLO 35.20N 101.96W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL NEAR HOPE ROAD AND INTERSTATE 40. HAIL LASTED FOR
ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

0628 PM HAIL 6 WNW AMARILLO 35.24N 101.92W
10/10/2007 M1.00 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ACCUMULATED ON GROUND NEAR THE
WALMART AT TASCOSA ROAD

0635 PM HAIL AMARILLO 35.20N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SAN JACINTO AREA RELAYED
BY LOCAL MEDIA

0635 PM HAIL 2 W AMARILLO 35.20N 101.85W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NEAR AMARILLO BLVD AND MCMASTERS

0635 PM HAIL 4 N AMARILLO 35.26N 101.82W
10/10/2007 M1.75 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN PLEASANT VALLEY

0636 PM HAIL 3 NW AMARILLO 35.23N 101.86W
10/10/2007 E0.88 INCH POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKLE SIZE HAIL AT AMARILLO BOULEVARD AND WESTERN

0646 PM HAIL 4 NNE AMARILLO 35.26N 101.79W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

NORTH 24TH AND GRAND

0648 PM HAIL 9 WSW LAKE MEREDITH 35.58N 101.80W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED

0648 PM HAIL 4 N AMARILLO 35.26N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ON NORTH COLORADO ST
NEAR LOOP 335

0648 PM HAIL 2 NE AMARILLO 35.22N 101.79W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR MESA VERDE ELEMENTARY

0650 PM HAIL 5 N AMARILLO 35.28N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

0702 PM HAIL 6 NNW AMARILLO 35.28N 101.86W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO ALMOST QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN CHAPARRAL HILLS

0705 PM HAIL 7 N AMARILLO 35.30N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT BROADWAY AND CHERRY

0726 PM HAIL 7 NE AMARILLO 35.27N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT LOOP 335 AND FRITCH
HWY

0728 PM HAIL 5 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

LAKESIDE AND LOOP 335

0730 PM HAIL 5 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT LAKESIDE AND LOOP 335

0735 PM HAIL 5 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E1.25 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH HAIL AT LAKESIDE AND
INTERSTATE 40

0747 PM HAIL 6 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.71W
10/10/2007 M0.75 INCH POTTER TX OTHER FEDERAL

RECORDED AT THE TOWER AT RICK HUSBAND INTL AIRPORT

0915 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 SW AMARILLO 35.14N 101.89W
10/10/2007 RANDALL TX PUBLIC

WAIST DEEP WATER REPORTED AT A RESTARAUNT ON COULTER
STREET SOUTH OF 45TH

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00003 00004 00005 00007 00008 00010 00006 00012 00026
00009 00011 00013 00014 00015 00016 00017 00018 00019 00020 00022

$$

KRAMAR

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KAMA [111934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KAMA 111934
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
233 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0648 PM HAIL 9 WSW LAKE MEREDITH 35.58N 101.80W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER 00026

$$

KRAMAR

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KAMA [111926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 111926
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
226 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0648 PM HAIL 11 SW LAKE MEREDITH 35.53N 101.80W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00026

$$

SMB

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KPHI [111916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 111916
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL ATLANTIC CITY 39.36N 74.44W
10/11/2007 E0.25 INCH ATLANTIC NJ OTHER FEDERAL

HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE THE SIZE OF PEAS AT THE ATLANTIC
CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FAA TECHNICAL CENTER.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN LANSDALE 40.24N 75.28W
10/11/2007 M1.31 INCH MONTGOMERY PA MESONET

1.31 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT A MESONET SITE IN
LANSDALE.

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN DOYLESTOWN 40.31N 75.13W
10/11/2007 M1.92 INCH BUCKS PA MESONET

1.92 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED AT A MESONET SITE IN
DOYLESTOWN.

0235 PM HEAVY RAIN CALIFON 40.72N 74.84W
10/11/2007 M0.90 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.90 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN JUST 15 MINUTES IN
CALIFON.

0255 PM HEAVY RAIN WRIGHTSTOWN 40.03N 74.63W
10/11/2007 M2.24 INCH BURLINGTON NJ ASOS

2.24 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED AT THE MCGUIRE AIR FORCE
BASE IN WRIGHTSTOWN.

&&

$$

GORSE

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KAMA [111850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 111850
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
149 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM HAIL 4 NNW HEDLEY 34.92N 100.68W
10/11/2007 E1.25 INCH DONLEY TX PUBLIC

HAIL QUARTER SIZE TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN GOLFBALL SIZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00025

$$

KRAMAR

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111716
SWODY2
SPC AC 111714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SWRN STATES ON
FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC/LOWER
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH ALONG ERN STATES. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SRN EXTENT OF CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WHILE LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED IN THE HIGH
PLAINS BENEATH BROAD ZONE OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT.

..SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...
DESPITE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN
GULF OF MEXICO...MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD
ALONG SWRN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE RIDGE. THIS AXIS OF
NARROW MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60/ SHOULD REACH NWD INTO SWRN KS...GIVEN EWD SHIFT OF SURFACE HIGH.
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AXIS OF MUCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG.

AT 12Z FRIDAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NRN OK
WITHIN SEWD MOVING ACTIVITY DISCUSSED IN DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
GIVEN DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT ACTIVITY...IF IT DEVELOPS...WILL BE
ISOLATED GIVEN LACK FOR STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
MAINLY IN KS. HERE...INCREASING DESTABILIZATION AND WAA ALONG NOSE
OF VEERING NOCTURNAL LLJ BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
SUGGESTS HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.PETERS.. 10/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111618
SWODY1
SPC AC 111614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW AMPLITUDE...SLOW MOVING IMPULSES ARE NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS FAR
WRN TX AND SERN NM THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION...AND WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR IN
PLACE FARTHER EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHERE SSELY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AN AXIS OF 60-65F SURFACE DEW POINTS
OVER WRN TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER SWRN TX/W-CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SERN NM.
PRIMARY WEAKNESSES FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE THE
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE WEAKENING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW OVER SERN NM DAMPENS OUT. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST FEW
KM MAY STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...AND
POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL...INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

..MID ATLANTIC COAST...
NARROW AREA OF MARGINAL MLCAPE WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF NJ
WHERE 60F+ DEW POINTS ARE PERSISTING INVOF SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OFF THE NJ COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SHEAR PARAMETERS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS...IF ACTIVITY CAN ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE LOW TOPPED GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND LACK OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...APPEARS A
CONDITIONAL/LOW PROBABILITY RISK IS WARRANTED FOR A BRIEF-LIVED
DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADO POSSIBILITY. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT INTO LONG ISLAND/SRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN
STRONGER CAPPING AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SEWD MOVING AREA OF ELEVATED
MOIST CONVECTION OUT OF NWRN KS LATER TONIGHT ALONG NOSE OF 35+ KT
SLY LLJ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE MUCAPE MAY
EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUGGESTING HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.

.EVANS/GUYER.. 10/11/2007

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KPHI [111435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 111435
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1035 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM TSTM WND GST 10 WSW FAIRTON 39.30N 75.37W
10/11/2007 E50.00 MPH ANZ430 NJ BUOY

A 50 MPH WIND GUST WAS ESTIMATED DURING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT SHIP JOHN SHOAL, LOCATED IN THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY.

0454 AM TSTM WND GST 1 SW NORTH CAPE MAY 38.97N 74.96W
10/11/2007 M51.00 MPH CAPE MAY NJ C-MAN STATION

A 51 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED DURING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE CAPE MAY FERRY TERMINAL.

0500 AM TSTM WND GST 4 N RIO GRANDE 39.08N 74.88W
10/11/2007 M40.00 MPH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WERE REPORTED IN GREEN CREEK
DURING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

$$

GORSE

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KAMA [111414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 111414
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
914 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM HAIL 11 NNW HOOVER 35.74N 100.94W
10/11/2007 E0.88 INCH ROBERTS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ON STATE HIGHWAY 70...DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00024

$$

KJS

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KAMA [111359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 111359
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
859 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0839 AM HAIL 5 N PAMPA 35.62N 100.96W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH GRAY TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00023

$$

LG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111252
SWODY1
SPC AC 111249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS HAS BACKED WWD ONTO THE
CAPROCK...THOUGH LITTLE ADDITIONAL WWD PROGRESS OF THIS RELATIVELY
COOL/DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TODAY. A CORRIDOR OF 55-60 F BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS W CENTRAL TX AND ERN NM
..AND THE MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD NWD TOWARD EXTREME SW KS AND SE CO
BY THIS EVENING TO THE E OF A WEAK LEE CYCLONE. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX. A SEPARATE SRN WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BIG
BEND/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INSOLATION. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE TO THE SE OF THIS AREA...LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM W CENTRAL TX NWD.
IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT
COULD AGAIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LEE
CYCLONE/TROUGH.

A ROUGHLY 35 KT NOCTURNAL LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM W TX INTO
WRN KS BY 03-06Z. LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...ALONG WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO AND WRN KS LATE TONIGHT.

..SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL DIG SWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE THE SEPARATE CLOSED LOW OVER ERN OH EVOLVES GRADUALLY
INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE MOVING EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...AND THEN NEWD TO JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12/12Z. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE DE COAST WILL DEEPEN
AND PROGRESS NNEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. A NARROW PORTION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY...MAY OVERSPREAD THE SRN/SERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. THE RELATIVELY
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF A SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER OVER SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL
TEMPER ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT...THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 10/11/2007

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KLUB [111238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 111238
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 PM HAIL 7 NE DIMMITT 34.62N 102.23W
10/10/2007 E0.88 INCH CASTRO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0713 PM HAIL NAZARETH 34.54N 102.10W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH CASTRO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0735 PM TSTM WND GST 3 N HART 34.43N 102.11W
10/10/2007 M70.00 MPH CASTRO TX MESONET

0735 PM HAIL 4 SW HALFWAY 34.15N 102.00W
10/10/2007 E2.75 INCH HALE TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0843 PM HAIL 8 NW COTTON CENTER 34.07N 102.09W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH LAMB TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL DAMAGED AND BLEW OUT CAR WINDOWS.

0844 PM HAIL 7 N SPADE 34.03N 102.15W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH LAMB TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0951 PM HAIL NEW DEAL 33.73N 101.84W
10/10/2007 E0.88 INCH LUBBOCK TX STORM CHASER

&&

$$

GSKWIRA

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KAMA [111136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 111136
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.05W
10/10/2007 E65 MPH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

0615 PM HAIL 8 W AMARILLO 35.20N 101.96W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL NEAR HOPE ROAD AND INTERSTATE 40. HAIL LASTED FOR
ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

0628 PM HAIL 6 WNW AMARILLO 35.24N 101.92W
10/10/2007 M1.00 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ACCUMULATED ON GROUND NEAR THE
WALMART AT TASCOSA ROAD

0635 PM HAIL AMARILLO 35.20N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SAN JACINTO AREA RELAYED
BY LOCAL MEDIA

0635 PM HAIL 2 W AMARILLO 35.20N 101.85W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NEAR AMARILLO BLVD AND MCMASTERS

0635 PM HAIL 4 N AMARILLO 35.26N 101.82W
10/10/2007 M1.75 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN PLEASANT VALLEY

0636 PM HAIL 3 NW AMARILLO 35.23N 101.86W
10/10/2007 E0.88 INCH POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKLE SIZE HAIL AT AMARILLO BOULEVARD AND WESTERN

0646 PM HAIL 4 NNE AMARILLO 35.26N 101.79W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX PUBLIC

NORTH 24TH AND GRAND

0648 PM HAIL 4 N AMARILLO 35.26N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ON NORTH COLORADO ST
NEAR LOOP 335

0648 PM HAIL 2 NE AMARILLO 35.22N 101.79W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR MESA VERDE ELEMENTARY

0650 PM HAIL 5 N AMARILLO 35.28N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.75 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

0702 PM HAIL 6 NNW AMARILLO 35.28N 101.86W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO ALMOST QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN CHAPARRAL HILLS

0705 PM HAIL 7 N AMARILLO 35.30N 101.82W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT BROADWAY AND CHERRY

0726 PM HAIL 7 NE AMARILLO 35.27N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT LOOP 335 AND FRITCH
HWY

0728 PM HAIL 5 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E0.75 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

LAKESIDE AND LOOP 335

0730 PM HAIL 5 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E1.00 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT LAKESIDE AND LOOP 335

0735 PM HAIL 5 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.73W
10/10/2007 E1.25 INCH POTTER TX NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH HAIL AT LAKESIDE AND
INTERSTATE 40

0747 PM HAIL 6 E AMARILLO 35.20N 101.71W
10/10/2007 M0.75 INCH POTTER TX OTHER FEDERAL

RECORDED AT THE TOWER AT RICK HUSBAND INTL AIRPORT

0915 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 SW AMARILLO 35.14N 101.89W
10/10/2007 RANDALL TX PUBLIC

WAIST DEEP WATER REPORTED AT A RESTARAUNT ON COULTER
STREET SOUTH OF 45TH

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00003 00004 00005 00007 00008 00010 00006 00012 00009
00011 00013 00014 00015 00016 00017 00018 00019 00020 00022

$$

ERA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110914
SWOD48
SPC AC 110914

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..DISCUSSION...

DAY 4 (SUNDAY) UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS. AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON DAY 4 WILL LIKELY STALL AND
BEGIN RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY DAY 6 AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW RICHER MOISTURE TO RETURN
NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH A BROADER WARM
SECTOR. DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE DETAILS
OF THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS IS THAT FETCH OF
MODERATE-STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
IMPULSES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS PATTERN AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
REGIONS.

.DIAL.. 10/11/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110743
SWODY3
SPC AC 110741

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREAS...

LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN GULF WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THIS PERIOD AND THIS
COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW EAST OF LEE LOW WILL MAINTAIN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE EML SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED
TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET WILL ADVANCE EWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT
ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT
SPREADS EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND.

OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
NEB WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ATTENDING STRENGTHENING
SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH A
THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

.DIAL.. 10/11/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110528
SWODY2
SPC AC 110527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
ERN STATES...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE SWRN STATES. IN THE NORTHEAST A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NWD INTO
MAINE WITH THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SWD OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PRESENCE OF ERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE A
LONG FETCH OF NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MAINTAIN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH OVER
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SELY ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE TX COAST AS ERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST.

..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

OWING TO A PERSISTENT INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF...QUALITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HOWEVER...SLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EAST OF LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF
MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FROM TX THROUGH OK AND KS.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MAY
DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN KS WITHIN PLUME
OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF WRN TX INTO SWRN KS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MIXING WEAKENS CAP.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND MUCAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH
ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DIAL.. 10/11/2007

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