SWOD48
SPC AC 110914
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION...
DAY 4 (SUNDAY) UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS. AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
COLD FRONT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON DAY 4 WILL LIKELY STALL AND
BEGIN RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY DAY 6 AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW RICHER MOISTURE TO RETURN
NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH A BROADER WARM
SECTOR. DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE DETAILS
OF THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS IS THAT FETCH OF
MODERATE-STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
IMPULSES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS PATTERN AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
REGIONS.
.DIAL.. 10/11/2007
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