KEKA [230333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 230333
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
833 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0831 PM HAIL CRESCENT CITY 41.75N 124.20W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH DEL NORTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE ROADWAY FROM EARLIER STORM AROUND 8 PM.
VEHICLES SLIDING THROUGH INTERSECTIONS.


&&

$$

RPA

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KSLC [230329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 230329 AAA
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BAUER 40.46N 112.37W
10/22/2012 M59 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

STOCKTON BAR - 5161 FT

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA 39.96N 112.10W
10/22/2012 M61 MPH JUAB UT MESONET

U.S. 6 AT EUREKA - 6584 FT

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST COVE FT 38.64N 112.61W
10/22/2012 M60 MPH MILLARD UT MESONET

DOG VALLEY - 6180 FT

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
10/22/2012 M70 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN - WILDCAT - 7703 FT

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
10/22/2012 M58 MPH CACHE UT MESONET

SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT

0158 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNTFORK 40.81N 110.07W
10/22/2012 M60 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

CHEPETA - 12120 FT

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VERNON 40.13N 112.38W
10/22/2012 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

VERNON HILL - 5761 FT

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAKE POINT 41.33N 112.85W
10/22/2012 M59 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GUNNISON ISLAND - 4242 FT

&&

$$

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KSLC [230328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 230328
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BAUER 40.46N 112.37W
10/22/2012 M59 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

STOCKTON BAR - 5161 FT

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA 39.96N 112.10W
10/22/2012 M61 MPH JUAB UT MESONET

U.S. 6 AT EUREKA - 6584 FT

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST COVE FT 38.64N 112.61W
10/22/2012 M60 MPH MILLARD UT MESONET

DOG VALLEY - 6180 FT

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
10/22/2012 M70 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN - WILDCAT - 7703 FT

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
10/22/2012 M58 MPH CACHE UT MESONET

SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT

0158 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNTFORK 40.81N 110.07W
10/22/2012 M60 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

CHEPETA - 12120 FT

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VERNON 40.13N 112.38W
10/22/2012 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

VERNON HILL - 5761 FT

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAKE POINT 41.33N 112.85W
10/22/2012 M59 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GUNNISON ISLAND - 4242 FT

&&

$$

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KEKA [230328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 230328
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
827 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL CRESCENT CITY 41.75N 124.20W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH DEL NORTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY HAIL STORM. CAN NOT SEE IF IT IS ACCUMULATING AT
THIS TIME.


&&

$$

RPA

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KEKA [230326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 230326
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
825 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM HAIL 4 NE CRESCENT CITY 41.79N 124.15W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH DEL NORTE CA COCORAHS

COVERING APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT OF THE GROUND AT THIS
TIME.


&&

$$

RPA

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KMAF [230250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 230250
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
950 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0722 AM HAIL SNYDER 32.71N 100.92W
10/22/2012 E1.00 INCH SCURRY TX EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KTFX [230217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 230217
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
816 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0816 PM SNOW 18 SSW FORESTGROVE 46.77N 109.28W
10/22/2012 E4.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SWE 0.42


&&

$$

SUK

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KGRR [230213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 230213
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1012 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE HOPKINS 42.67N 85.71W
10/22/2012 M0.93 INCH ALLEGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

NJJ

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KSTO [230151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 230151
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
650 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL 1 WSW GRASS VALLEY 39.22N 121.07W
10/22/2012 E0.50 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [230116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 230116
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
615 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TORNADO 1 SE ELK GROVE 38.39N 121.35W
10/22/2012 SACRAMENTO CA PUBLIC

POSSIBLE TORNADO. TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE
REPORTED.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [230112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 230112
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
612 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM HAIL COLFAX 39.10N 120.95W
10/22/2012 M0.50 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGEST HAIL DIME SIZE


&&

$$

KSWANBER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230051
SWODY1
SPC AC 230049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL...
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM N TX/ERN
OK/ERN KS NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS -- ALBEIT SUB-SEVERE -- ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA
OF ERN MO. WITH TIME...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STORMS POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO PARTS OF IL LATE.
WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL...THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MARGINAL HAIL EVENT OR TWO WARRANTS MAINTAINING 5% HAIL PROBABILITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

...ELSEWHERE...
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS OK/N TX THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THUS...DIMINISHING SEVERE
THREAT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA.

STORMS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED ACROSS THE NRN CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA...AND
THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...DEGREE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY AREA.

..GOSS.. 10/23/2012

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KSTO [230050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 230050
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
550 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 PM TORNADO HIGGINS CORNER 39.04N 121.09W
10/22/2012 NEVADA CA FIRE DEPARTMENT/R

FIRE DEPT REPORTS TORNADO TOUCH DOWN NEAR
LAKE OF THE PINES AREA.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KPIH [230030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 230030
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
630 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM SNOW 33 WNW ARCO 43.82N 113.91W
10/22/2012 M3.7 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

BEAR CANYON - 7903 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 12 NNW KETCHUM 43.85N 114.47W
10/22/2012 M2.4 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

CHOCOLATE GULTCH - 6440 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 16 WSW KETCHUM 43.60N 114.67W
10/22/2012 M6.2 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

DOLLARHIDE SUMMIT - 8421 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 22 NW KETCHUM 43.91N 114.69W
10/22/2012 M4.6 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

GALENA SUMMIT - 8782 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 30 NNW ARCO 44.03N 113.53W
10/22/2012 M2.7 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

HILTS CREEK - 8001 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 11 ENE HAILEY 43.57N 114.10W
10/22/2012 M2.2 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

HYNDMAN - 7440 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 10 NW KETCHUM 43.79N 114.52W
10/22/2012 M3.2 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

LOST WOOD DIVIDE - 7903 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 37 NE MACKAY 44.29N 113.08W
10/22/2012 M2.3 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

MEADOW LAKE - 9150 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 28 NE STANLEY 44.50N 114.54W
10/22/2012 M3.7 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

MILL CREEK SUMMIT - 8870 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 17 SW MACKAY 43.74N 113.85W
10/22/2012 M6.4 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

SMILEY MOUNTAIN - 9520 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 50 NW ARCO 44.14N 114.01W
10/22/2012 M2.1 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

STICKNEY MILL - 7431 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 21 ENE HAILEY 43.63N 113.91W
10/22/2012 M3.4 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

SWEDE PEAK - 7641 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 22 NW KETCHUM 43.91N 114.69W
10/22/2012 M7.3 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

VIENNA MINE - 8963 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM

0615 PM SNOW 8 NW ISLAND PARK 44.51N 111.49W
10/22/2012 M3.1 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

WHITE ELEPHANT - 7713 FEET - 6AM TO 5PM


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KSTO [230030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 230030
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
529 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW ELK GROVE 38.41N 121.37W
10/22/2012 SACRAMENTO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND FENCES BLOWN IN
VICINITY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [230008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 230008
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
508 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 5 W VIOLA 40.53N 121.76W
10/22/2012 M0.25 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL HAIL COVERING GROUND AND CONTINUING

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KJAN [222337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 222337
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
637 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0847 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W HAMBURG 33.23N 91.85W
10/17/2012 ASHLEY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN

0904 PM HAIL DUNCAN 34.04N 90.74W
10/17/2012 E1.00 INCH BOLIVAR MS TRAINED SPOTTER

0907 PM TORNADO 3 NE SHELBY 33.98N 90.73W
10/17/2012 F2 BOLIVAR MS NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO CAUSED DAMAGE TO ROOF OF A HOME AND SEVERAL
SHEDS. A HOUSE WAS BLOWN OFF ITS BLOCKS. A MOBILE HOME
AND SILO DESTROYED. SEVERAL POWER POLES AND A RADIO TOWER
SNAPPED AS WELL. MAX WIND SPEED 115 MPH...PATH LENGTH 1
1/4 MILES...MAX WIDTH 150 YARDS.

0907 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE CROSSETT 33.06N 91.93W
10/17/2012 ASHLEY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE DOWN

0908 PM TORNADO 2 NE SHELBY 33.97N 90.74W
10/17/2012 BOLIVAR MS EMERGENCY MNGR

HEAVY DAMAGE ALONG BLUE CANE RD...3 STRUCTURES DAMAGED
WITH ONE HOME OFF ITS BLOCKS ALONG WITH THE ROOF REMOVED.
POWER LINES DOWN AND POWER POLES SNAPPED.

0908 PM TSTM WND DMG SHELBY 33.95N 90.77W
10/17/2012 BOLIVAR MS BROADCAST MEDIA

MAJOR DAMAGE TO A HOME AND CAR...REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.


0926 PM TSTM WND DMG ROME 33.96N 90.48W
10/17/2012 SUNFLOWER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN AROUND ROME

0932 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE LAKE VILLAGE 33.34N 91.24W
10/17/2012 CHICOT AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

A COUPLE TREES DOWN IN LAKE CHICOT ST PARK ALONG HWY 257

0945 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S GREENVILLE 33.37N 91.05W
10/17/2012 WASHINGTON MS BROADCAST MEDIA

SIGN DAMAGE IN GREENVILLE ALONG WITH MULTIPLE OUTAGES AND
5700 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. TREES ALSO DOWN ON CYPRESS
AND ANN STOKES RDS. DAMAGE TO A FEW BUILDINGS AT
COTTONWOOD APARTMENTS. BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED
WINDS OF 60-70 MPH IN AREA.

0945 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S GREENVILLE 33.37N 91.05W
10/17/2012 WASHINGTON MS BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTS OF MULTIPLE LIMBS AND TREES DOWN WITH SOME DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES ALONG WITH STREETS FLOODED IN DOWNTOWN.

0955 PM TSTM WND DMG DERMOTT 33.53N 91.44W
10/17/2012 CHICOT AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN IN DERMOTT. MANY LIMBS DOWN AND A
BILLBOARD TORN APART.

1009 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N BEW SPRINGS 33.85N 89.91W
10/17/2012 GRENADA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ALONG CARPENTER AND PEARIDGE...LIKELY TORNADO

1012 PM TORNADO 5 NNW GRENADA 33.85N 89.84W
10/17/2012 F1 GRENADA MS NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO TORE A ROOF OFF A HOUSE AND CAUSED DAMAGE TO
A FENCE. SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWN TOO. MAX WIND SPEED 105
MPH...PATH LENGTH 1/2 MILE...MAX WIDTH 75 YARDS.

1013 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NNW GRENADA 33.86N 89.84W
10/17/2012 GRENADA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINES DOWN AND HALF A ROOF BLOWN OFF A HOME ALONG
COUNTRY MEADOWS RD...POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1017 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 NE GRENADA 33.81N 89.77W
10/17/2012 GRENADA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR GRENADA LAKE.

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG GLEN ALLAN 33.02N 91.03W
10/17/2012 ISSAQUENA MS BROADCAST MEDIA

BOAT OVERTURNED OFF A BOAT TRAILER AND SIDING DAMAGED ON
A HOUSE ON LOTT RD

1040 PM TORNADO 8 ENE ANGUILLA 32.99N 90.70W
10/17/2012 F2 SHARKEY MS NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 4 INJ *** TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN E OF ANGUILLA AND
ENDED 3 MILES W OF LOUISE. SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES WERE
HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED AND DOZENS OF POWER POLES
SNAPPED. ESTIMATED PEAK WIND SPEED 125 MPH...PATH LENGTH
7 MILES...MAX PATH WIDTH 1/4 MILE.

1041 PM TORNADO 5 WNW LOUISE 33.00N 90.67W
10/17/2012 SHARKEY MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 5 INJ *** 2 MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED ALONG WITH OTHER
DAMAGED HOMES ALONG HWY 14...5 INJURIES.

1046 PM TORNADO 2 SW LOUISE 32.96N 90.61W
10/17/2012 F1 HUMPHREYS MS NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS SOUTH
AND WEST OF LOUISE. MAX PEAK WIND 110 MPH...PATH LENGTH 3
MILES...MAX PATH WIDTH 100 YARDS.

1050 PM TSTM WND DMG LOUISE 32.98N 90.59W
10/17/2012 HUMPHREYS MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

AROUND LOUISE AND ALONG COUNTY BARN RD...MOBILE HOME
DAMAGED WITH ANOTHER MOBILE HOME TURNED OVER...POWER
LINES DOWN AS WELL.

1055 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW EMBRY 33.68N 89.40W
10/17/2012 WEBSTER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE FELL ON A POWERLINE IN THE SPRINGHILL COMMUNITY.

1055 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE BELLEFONTAINE 33.70N 89.24W
10/17/2012 WEBSTER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE FELL ON A POWERLINE IN MONTEVISTA COMMUNITY.

1056 PM TORNADO 5 ESE LOUISE 32.95N 90.51W
10/17/2012 F1 HUMPHREYS MS NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS AND TRAVEL TRAILERS
AND SNAPPED MANY TREES. MAX PEAK WIND 90 MPH...PATH
LENGTH 2 MILES...MAX PATH WIDTH 100 YARDS.

1102 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW YAZOO CITY 32.91N 90.47W
10/17/2012 YAZOO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

HEAVY DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG LAKE CITY RD

1108 PM TSTM WND DMG BELZONI 33.18N 90.49W
10/17/2012 HUMPHREYS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

COUPLE OF TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN TOWN.

1129 PM TORNADO 6 E MIDWAY 32.88N 90.10W
10/17/2012 F1 YAZOO MS NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO CAUSED ONLY TREE DAMAGE IN FAR NE YAZOO
COUNTY. MAX WIND SPEED 90 MPH...PATH LENGTH 2 MILES...MAX
PATH WIDTH 250 YARDS.

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE YAZOO CITY 32.81N 90.38W
10/17/2012 YAZOO MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON A HOME ALONG MYRLEVILLE RD

1155 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W JIGGER 32.03N 91.83W
10/17/2012 FRANKLIN LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME

1209 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE CANTON 32.63N 90.01W
10/18/2012 MADISON MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES DOWN.

1211 AM TORNADO 10 W CARTHAGE 32.73N 89.71W
10/18/2012 F1 LEAKE MS NWS STORM SURVEY

WIDE BUT BRIEF TORNADO THAT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ROOF
DAMAGE TO TWO HOMES ALTHOUGH MOST OTHER DAMAGE LIMITED TO
TREES. MAX WIND SPEED 95 MPH...PATH LENGTH HALF A
MILE...WIDTH 525 YARDS.

1214 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 S SHARON 32.60N 89.94W
10/18/2012 MADISON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN E AND SE OF CANTON.

1223 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE CANTON 32.58N 90.02W
10/18/2012 MADISON MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON BARNES RD, DAMPEER RD, AND AT HWY 43 AND
RANKIN RD.

1232 AM TORNADO 2 ENE CARTHAGE 32.75N 89.51W
10/18/2012 F1 LEAKE MS NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TRAVELLED ROUGHLY EAST ALONG EAST FRANKLIN STREET
AND THEN ACROSS HIGHWAY 16 WHERE IT LIFTED 2.5 MILES EAST
OF CARTHAGE. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED TO SEVERAL HOMES
ALONG EAST FRANKLIN STREET WITH SEVERAL SHEDS AND
OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED. MULTIPLE CHICKEN HOUSES ALSO
DAMAGED JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 16. MAX WIND SPEED 110
MPH...PATH LENGTH 1.3 MILES...PATH WIDTH 150 YARDS.

1232 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE CARTHAGE 32.74N 89.51W
10/18/2012 LEAKE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO HOMES DAMAGED AND TREES DOWN ALONG E FRANKLING ST. A
COUPLE CHICKEN HOUSES WERE DAMAGED ALONG HWY 16 E AND A
TREE WAS DOWN ON A HOUSE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1235 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW STANDING PINE 32.64N 89.49W
10/18/2012 LEAKE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 35

1240 AM TSTM WND DMG STANDING PINE 32.67N 89.45W
10/18/2012 LEAKE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 487. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1246 AM TORNADO 3 SE HARPERVILLE 32.46N 89.46W
10/18/2012 F3 SCOTT MS NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 1 INJ *** TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG OLD JACKSON RD
EAST OF HILLSBORO AND TRAVELED ESE THROUGH E SCOTT
COUNTY...ENTERING W NEWTON COUNTY JUST SOUTH OF
CONEHATTA. TORNADO ENDED ALONG BRADDOCK ROAD N OF
LAWRENCE. HEAVIEST DAMAGE WAS OVER FAR ERN SCOTT COUNTY
WHERE THREE METAL TRANSMISSION TOWERS WERE BENT OVER.
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND 140 MPH...PATH LENGTH 16.25
MILES...MAX PATH WIDTH 1/2 MILE. ONE PERSON WAS INJURED
IN SCOTT COUNTY WHEN A TREE FELL THROUGH A MOBILE HOME.

1255 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE STEELE 32.43N 89.38W
10/18/2012 SCOTT MS DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE NE OF FOREST...LIKELY TORNADO

1255 AM TORNADO 6 NE FOREST 32.42N 89.40W
10/18/2012 SCOTT MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A MOBILE HOME WAS DESTROYED ON THE NORTHERN END OF
CONEHATTA ROAD NEAR JIM OWENS ROAD. FOUR LARGE
TRANSMISSION TOWERS WERE BLOWN DOWN ON JIM OWENS ROAD.

1255 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE FOREST 32.41N 89.41W
10/18/2012 SCOTT MS EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** PERSON TRAPPED IN MOBILE HOME WITH TREE ON
TOP ON RUSSELL COMMUNITY RD. LOTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE
AREA AS WELL.

0100 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 N LAKE 32.42N 89.33W
10/18/2012 SCOTT MS EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURE DAMAGE ON JIM OWENS RD ALONG WITH TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

0105 AM TORNADO 2 S CONEHATTA 32.43N 89.27W
10/18/2012 NEWTON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOZENS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG WITH SEVERAL
STURCTURES DAMAGED. MOST DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG
NEWTON-CONEHATTA RD AND CANEY CREEK RD.

0112 AM TORNADO 2 WSW BETHSAIDA 32.66N 89.07W
10/18/2012 F1 NESHOBA MS NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO CAUSED MOSTLY TREE DAMAGE EXCEPT WHERE IT CROSSED
CR 519. A MOBILE HOME WAS PUSHED OFF ITS FOUNDATION. A
METAL AND WOOD FRAME BUILDING WAS DESTROYED AND A ROOF TO
A WELL-BUILT HOME WAS DAMAGED. MAX WIND SPEED 100
MPH...PATH LENGTH 1 MILE...MAX WIDTH 150 YARDS.

0113 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 W BETHSAIDA 32.68N 89.07W
10/18/2012 NESHOBA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO A COUPLE HOMES ON CR 505 AND LOTS OF TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN...POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0142 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW DE KALB 32.72N 88.68W
10/18/2012 KEMPER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS NEW HOPE RD

0142 AM HAIL 6 SW MERIDIAN 32.32N 88.79W
10/18/2012 E1.75 INCH LAUDERDALE MS BROADCAST MEDIA

HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

0150 AM HAIL STONEWALL 32.14N 88.80W
10/18/2012 E1.75 INCH CLARKE MS PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF HAILSTONES UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE. RELAYED
THROUGH WTOK IN MERIDIAN.

0152 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 E CARTHAGE 32.74N 89.50W
10/18/2012 LEAKE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE HOUSE WAS DESTROYED. TEN HOMES HAD WIND DAMAGE AND
SOME OF THEM HAD TREES ON THEM. APPROXIMATELY SIX POULTRY
HOUSES WERE DAMAGED. A NUMBER OF TREES AND UTILITY LINES
WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0155 AM HAIL SAVOY 32.27N 88.77W
10/18/2012 E1.00 INCH LAUDERDALE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0209 AM TSTM WND DMG MCCALL CREEK 31.51N 90.70W
10/18/2012 FRANKLIN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN

0305 AM TSTM WND GST BAY SPRINGS 31.98N 89.28W
10/18/2012 E40.00 MPH JASPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS. ONE HOME
RECEIVED SOME DAMAGE WHEN A LIMB FELL ONTO A SERVICE
LINE, RIPPING IT FROM THE HOUSE.


&&

$$

CME

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KSLC [222324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 222324
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
524 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
10/22/2012 M58 MPH CACHE UT MESONET

SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT


&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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KSLC [222321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 222321
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
521 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SUNDANCE 40.37N 111.59W
10/22/2012 M65 MPH UTAH UT MESONET

SUNDANCE - ARROWHEAD - 8251 FT

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PARK CITY 40.63N 111.53W
10/22/2012 M58 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET

PARK CITY - BONANZA TOP - 9200 FT

0745 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BRIGHTON 40.61N 111.54W
10/22/2012 M67 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET

PARK CITY - JUPITER - 10024 FT

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.64W
10/22/2012 M68 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11066 FT

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BAUER 40.46N 112.37W
10/22/2012 M59 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

STOCKTON BAR - 5161 FT

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA 39.96N 112.10W
10/22/2012 M61 MPH JUAB UT MESONET

U.S. 6 AT EUREKA - 6584 FT

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST COVE FT 38.64N 112.61W
10/22/2012 M60 MPH MILLARD UT MESONET

DOG VALLEY - 6180 FT

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
10/22/2012 M70 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN - WILDCAT - 7703 FT

0158 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNTFORK 40.81N 110.07W
10/22/2012 M60 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

CHEPETA - 12120 FT

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VERNON 40.13N 112.38W
10/22/2012 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

VERNON HILL - 5761 FT

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAKE POINT 41.33N 112.85W
10/22/2012 M59 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GUNNISON ISLAND - 4242 FT

0430 PM TSTM WND GST WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
10/22/2012 M58 MPH CACHE UT MESONET

SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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KSTO [222319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 222319 CCA
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
416 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM TORNADO 7 S PALERMO 39.33N 121.53W
10/22/2012 BUTTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN BRIEFLY 3 ESE OF HONCUT

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [222319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 222319
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
418 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TORNADO 3 WSW BROWNS VALLEY 39.23N 121.45W
10/22/2012 YUBA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTY SAW TORNADO TOUCH DOWN IN RICE FIELD
NEAR SPRING VALLEY ROAD AND JOINES RD

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [222316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 222316
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
416 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM TORNADO 7 S PALERMO 39.33N 121.53W
10/22/2012 BUTTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN RICE FIELD 3 ESE OF
HONCUT

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [222302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 222302
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
402 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 E VERONA 38.78N 121.54W
10/22/2012 SUTTER CA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KVEF [222301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 222301
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
401 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW LAKE SABRINA 37.22N 118.62W
10/22/2012 E3.0 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED SINCE THIS MORNING AT
LAKE SABRINA AT AN ELEVATION OF 9200 FEET.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KTFX [222254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 222254
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM SNOW 8 WSW FAIRFIELD 47.58N 112.15W
10/22/2012 E1.0 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWING HEAVY RIGHT NOW


&&

$$

SUK

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KPIH [222239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPIH 222239
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
439 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE PRESTON 42.09N 111.81W
10/22/2012 M0.00 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0.83 DAILY TOTAL


&&

$$

MH

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KPIH [222237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 222237 RRA
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
428 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012...CORRECTION

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE PRESTON 42.09N 111.81W
10/22/2012 M0.68 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0.68 IN TEN MINUTES - 30 MPH WIND GUST


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPIH [222237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 222237
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
428 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE PRESTON 42.09N 111.81W
10/22/2012 M0.68 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0.68 IN TEN MINUTES - 30 MPH WIND GUST


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPIH [222228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 222228
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
428 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE PRESTON 42.09N 111.81W
10/22/2012 M0.00 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0.83 IN FIFTEEN MINUTES - 30 MPH WIND GUST

0424 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE PRESTON 42.09N 111.81W
10/22/2012 M0.68 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0.68 IN TEN MINUTES - 30 MPH WIND GUST


&&

$$

PANGEL

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KSTO [222227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 222227
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
326 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM TORNADO 1 ESE SOUTH YUBA CITY 39.11N 121.62W
10/22/2012 SUTTER CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SUTTER CO SHERIFF AND FIRE DEPT REPORTED
TORNADO AT APPROX 3:08 PM. REPORTS OF POWER
LINES DOWN AND SMALL STRUCTURES HIT.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 222153
SWODY1
SPC AC 222151

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMENDED TO ADD 2 PERCENT TORNADO CONTOUR

THE OUTLOOK IS AMENDED TO ADD A 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY TO
PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. ROTATING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH
OF SACRAMENTO IN A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.

TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST CHANGE
IS TO REMOVE THE 5 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL PROBABILITIES FROM
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE
MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. THE AREA THAT MAY DEVELOP A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ST LOUIS
AREA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. THE SECOND
CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE 5 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES FROM SW
OK AND NW TX WHERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 10/22/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC DATA SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER ERN IA AND A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
IT/S HEELS OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD
THROUGH A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN
NM/WRN TX IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WHILE TRANSLATING
NEWD INTO MO/AR BY TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS/SERN NEB AS OF 15Z IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO NWRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL
WILL STALL TODAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED NEAR STL IS LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOCATED AT THE TERMINUS OF
A 30-35 KT LLJ. EXPECT SIMILAR PROCESSES TO MAINTAIN REGENERATIVE
STORM GROWTH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION
OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SRN WI INTO CNTRL IL ADVANCES EWD IN CONCERT
WITH THE MCV AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
AOB 500 J/KG OVER ERN IL/NWRN IND TO 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN MO/WRN IL.

IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT
OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT A ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DISPLACED FROM THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS.
THEREFORE...THE LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED
IN THIS FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2082.

...SRN OK/NRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED NW OF MWL ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NOCTURNAL MCS EXTENDING FROM NWRN TX INTO THE TX
BIG COUNTRY. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND FWD SHOWED THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF
AROUND 14 G PER KG/ BENEATH A PRONOUNCED CAP AT THE BASE OF AN EML.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG MCS COLD POOL WILL
LIKELY FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PEAK OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BECOME UNDERCUT BY
SURGING OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2083.

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KSTO [222119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 222119
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
218 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL 2 ESE MILLVILLE 40.54N 122.14W
10/22/2012 M0.50 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMFR [222108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 222108
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
208 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.34W
10/22/2012 M2.20 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT NOON. SPOTTER REPORTS HAIL UP TO
PEA-SIZED OCCURRED WITH A THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING.

0205 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
10/22/2012 M2.31 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT NOON. SPOTTER ALSO REPORTS
THUNDERSTORM WITH PEA-SIZED HAIL OCCURRED THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

SPILDE

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KSTO [222102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 222102
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
201 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HEAVY RAIN GRASS VALLEY 39.22N 121.06W
10/22/2012 M1.60 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2085

ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048
CAZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING OWING TO AREAS OF
INSOLATION BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES FROM 250
TO AROUND 500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE WRN FLANK OF CHANNELED
SLY FLOW THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
MULTICELL TO PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES -- AIDED BY
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT IN SACRAMENTO-AREA VWP DATA -- MAY SUPPORT
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY/STRONGER DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE
OVERALL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...STO...

LAT...LON 40702221 39972175 39052127 38402124 38322163 38602193
38962224 39362244 39782261 40222269 40652261 40702221

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KCTP [222011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 222011
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
411 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TORNADO 1 SSE FERNGLEN 39.80N 76.26W
10/19/2012 LANCASTER PA NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO CONFIRMED...FERNGLEN IN DRUMORE TWP TO PARADISE
IN PARADISE TWP. EF1.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200457

$$

PAJ

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KLSX [222009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 222009
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM HEAVY RAIN LITCHFIELD 39.18N 89.66W
10/22/2012 M1.75 INCH MONTGOMERY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL


&&

$$

JP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221957
SWODY1
SPC AC 221955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST CHANGE
IS TO REMOVE THE 5 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL PROBABILITIES FROM
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE
MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. THE AREA THAT MAY DEVELOP A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ST LOUIS
AREA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. THE SECOND
CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE 5 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES FROM SW
OK AND NW TX WHERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 10/22/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC DATA SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER ERN IA AND A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
IT/S HEELS OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD
THROUGH A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN
NM/WRN TX IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WHILE TRANSLATING
NEWD INTO MO/AR BY TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS/SERN NEB AS OF 15Z IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO NWRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL
WILL STALL TODAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED NEAR STL IS LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOCATED AT THE TERMINUS OF
A 30-35 KT LLJ. EXPECT SIMILAR PROCESSES TO MAINTAIN REGENERATIVE
STORM GROWTH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION
OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SRN WI INTO CNTRL IL ADVANCES EWD IN CONCERT
WITH THE MCV AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
AOB 500 J/KG OVER ERN IL/NWRN IND TO 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN MO/WRN IL.

IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT
OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT A ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DISPLACED FROM THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS.
THEREFORE...THE LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED
IN THIS FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2082.

...SRN OK/NRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED NW OF MWL ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NOCTURNAL MCS EXTENDING FROM NWRN TX INTO THE TX
BIG COUNTRY. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND FWD SHOWED THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF
AROUND 14 G PER KG/ BENEATH A PRONOUNCED CAP AT THE BASE OF AN EML.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG MCS COLD POOL WILL
LIKELY FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PEAK OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BECOME UNDERCUT BY
SURGING OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2083.

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KSTO [221554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 221554
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
853 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW SIMS 41.06N 122.36W
10/22/2012 M1.00 IN SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KLSX [221541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221541
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM HAIL KANE 39.19N 90.35W
10/22/2012 E0.70 INCH GREENE IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MILLER

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KMFR [221538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 221538
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
10/22/2012 M0.50 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

13 HOUR AMOUNT.


&&

$$

DW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2083

ACUS11 KWNS 221538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221537
TXZ000-221630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221537Z - 221630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ISSUANCE OF
A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE A MODEST UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING
AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. HAIL APPROACHING
MARGINALLY SVR THRESHOLDS MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING
TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML SAMPLED BY
THE 12Z FORT WORTH RAOB -- I.E. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 8 C/KM
SUPPORTING MUCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. ALSO...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE EWD-MOVING COLD POOL OWING TO ITS /1/
SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT FROM STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONGER
DEEP SHEAR ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FARTHER W/NW AND /2/ DEEP
SHEAR VECTORS THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BEING NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. AS SUCH...ANY STRONG/SVR
STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF/SPORADIC.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33569697 32769706 31929811 31639921 31860052 32210048
32480012 33009927 33659840 33769755 33569697

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KLSX [221531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221531
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1031 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 AM HAIL WOOD RIVER 38.86N 90.08W
10/22/2012 E1.00 INCH MADISON IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KSTO [221514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 221514
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
813 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM HEAVY RAIN PACIFIC HOUSE 38.76N 120.50W
10/22/2012 M0.49 IN EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

(CURRENT TEMPERATURE 40) HEAVY RAIN DURATION
24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [221506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 221506
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
805 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 WSW KINGVALE 39.32N 120.45W
10/22/2012 M11.0 IN NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.24 MELTED VALUE HEAVY SNOW DURATION 24
HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2082

ACUS11 KWNS 221505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221504
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-221600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL/ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221504Z - 221600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ESEWD...PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS SRN/CNTRL/ERN IL.
ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERITY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE PERSISTING
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN IA/WRN IL...AND AN MCV NOTED OVER NWRN
IL. MOIST LOW-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS NEAR 35-40 KT PER AREA VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA ARE LIKELY MAINTAINING WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY WITH THE SRN MOST EXTENT OF THE LINE OVER
SRN/CNTRL IL. HOWEVER...THE MOIST INFLOW MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK
MID-LEVEL WINDS AND OTHERWISE MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES MAY HINDER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES
THAT CAN DEVELOP.

..DISPIGNA/MEAD.. 10/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 41298899 41338806 40938746 40578753 39838782 39238836
38718894 38318935 38458995 38829020 40328934 41298899

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KSTO [221501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 221501
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
800 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 NW ALMANOR 40.23N 121.19W
10/22/2012 M3.0 IN PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING HEAVY SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KLSX [221449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221449
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
949 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM HAIL CHESTERFIELD 38.65N 90.58W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO PUBLIC

TWITTER REPORT.


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [221442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221442
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
942 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 AM HAIL ST. ANN 38.73N 90.39W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KLSX [221440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221440
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
940 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 AM HAIL O'FALLON 38.59N 89.91W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KLSX [221439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221439
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
939 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 AM HAIL MARYLAND HEIGHTS 38.72N 90.48W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KLSX [221437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221437
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
936 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 AM HAIL 2 N TOWN AND COUNTRY 38.65N 90.48W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO PUBLIC

TWITTER REPORT.


&&

$$

GOSSELIN

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KLSX [221432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221432
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
931 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0931 AM HAIL JERSEYVILLE 39.12N 90.33W
10/22/2012 E0.88 INCH JERSEY IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KLSX [221431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221431
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
931 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 AM HAIL JERSEYVILLE 39.12N 90.33W
10/22/2012 E0.70 INCH JERSEY IL CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

MILLER

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KBOX [221419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 221419
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 AM FLOOD BOSTON 42.32N 71.07W
10/20/2012 SUFFOLK MA EMERGENCY MNGR

LOWER LEVEL PARKING GARGAGE FLOODED. ROADS IN LWR
CAMPUS IMPASSABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. 8 VEHICLES WERE
DAMAGED BY FLOODING. WATER DAMAGE IN 3 BUILDINGS
INCLUDING AN ICE RINK

0339 AM LIGHTNING COVENTRY 41.68N 71.65W
10/20/2012 KENT RI AMATEUR RADIO

TWO HOUSE FIRES DUE TO LIGHTING. BOTH HOMES DEEMED
UNINHABITABLE


&&

$$

123

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KPBZ [221410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 221410
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1010 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 2 WNW HOVATTER 39.25N 79.79W
10/18/2012 M1.00 INCH PRESTON WV BROADCAST MEDIA

TIME MODIFIED BASED ON RADAR. RELAYED BY WBOY.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201056

$$

KRAMAR

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KMFR [221409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 221409
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
709 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
10/22/2012 E0.84 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7AM TO 7AM. TSTM BETWEEN 6 AND 615AM.


&&

$$

GLASER

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KLSX [221350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221350
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
850 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0849 AM HAIL BELLEVILLE 38.53N 90.00W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KLSX [221349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221349
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
849 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0843 AM HAIL 5 W BELLEVILLE 38.53N 90.10W
10/22/2012 E0.88 INCH ST. CLAIR IL TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL LASTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KLSX [221304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221304
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
803 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HAIL HAZELWOOD 38.78N 90.36W
10/22/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KLSX [221302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221302
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
802 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0758 AM HAIL HOUSE SPRINGS 38.42N 90.57W
10/22/2012 E0.75 INCH JEFFERSON MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MILLER

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KLSX [221302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221302
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
802 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HAIL FLORISSANT 38.80N 90.32W
10/22/2012 E0.70 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TRUETT

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KSTO [221255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 221255
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
554 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM SNOW 1 ESE BURNEY 40.88N 121.65W
10/22/2012 U0.0 IN SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN AND SNOW MIX.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KLSX [221253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221253
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 AM HAIL 2 N PITTSFIELD 39.64N 90.81W
10/22/2012 E0.50 INCH PIKE IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MILLER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL US. ONE CLUSTER IS OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHEAST
MO/WESTERN IL...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NEB. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF WI/IL/LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO AREA AND HELP DESTABILIZE THE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS. CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
500-1000 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAINING GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20-30 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT
WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

...TX/OK...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER EASTERN NM. FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS AIDING THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
OVER WEST TX. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATE
A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX/OK. THE
CAP IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES LEADING TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/22/2012

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KSTO [221243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 221243
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
542 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW CHICO 39.73N 121.84W
10/22/2012 M0.53 IN BUTTE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 2:30 AM TO 5:30 AM...RECEIVED 0.53"
RAIN AND STILL RAINING.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KDVN [221240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 221240
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
740 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM HAIL 3 NNW CEDAR RAPIDS 42.02N 91.70W
10/22/2012 E0.50 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GROSS

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KLSX [221216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221216
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM HAIL 4 NE BURTON 39.94N 91.20W
10/22/2012 M0.50 INCH ADAMS IL ASOS

REPORTED BY THE ARPT MNGR


&&

$$

MILLER

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