DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL US. ONE CLUSTER IS OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHEAST
MO/WESTERN IL...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NEB. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF WI/IL/LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO AREA AND HELP DESTABILIZE THE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS. CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
500-1000 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAINING GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20-30 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT
WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

...TX/OK...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER EASTERN NM. FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS AIDING THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
OVER WEST TX. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATE
A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX/OK. THE
CAP IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES LEADING TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/22/2012

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