Tuesday, September 30, 2008

KPHI [010330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 010330
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1130 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 PM HAIL DOVER 39.16N 75.52W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH KENT DE EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

BSTAUBER

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KRAH [010204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 010204
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1001 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 PM HAIL 3 S LEXINGTON 35.77N 80.26W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH DAVIDSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF
LEXINGTON ON HIGHWAY 8.


&&

$$

LEPAGANO

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KLWX [010158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 010158
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNT HARMONY 38.70N 76.60W
09/30/2008 CALVERT MD COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREE DOWN ON ROAD AROUND CHANEYVILLE. HAIL REPORTED ALSO
AROUND NORTH BEACH...OWINGS AND CHESAPEAKE BEACH. SIZE
UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

HITCHENS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010038
SWODY1
SPC AC 010035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING...ACROSS THE DELMARVA
VICINITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE LOW...WITH
OTHER TSTMS FOCUSED ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH/EARLIER SEABREEZE ACROSS NC. OVERALL...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH
MID EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS/DECOUPLES.

..GUYER.. 10/01/2008

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KGSP [010035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 010035
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
835 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 PM HAIL 2 SW SALISBURY 35.65N 80.51W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH ROWAN NC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NED

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KRNK [010020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 010020
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
820 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HAIL 3 W FIELDALE 36.70N 80.00W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH HENRY VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TW

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KRNK [010009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 010009
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
809 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL COLLINSVILLE 36.72N 79.91W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH HENRY VA PUBLIC


&&

$$

TW

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KRNK [302340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 302340
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
740 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0728 PM HAIL 6 E STUART 36.63N 80.18W
09/30/2008 E0.88 INCH PATRICK VA PUBLIC

NEAR PATRICK SPRINGS.


&&

$$

TW

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KRNK [302338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 302338
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 2 NE MOUNT AIRY 36.52N 80.59W
09/30/2008 E0.88 INCH SURRY NC PUBLIC

COVERED THE GROUND NEAR SLATE MOUNTAIN.


&&

$$

TW

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KRNK [302327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 302327
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E MOUNT AIRY 36.50N 80.60W
09/30/2008 SURRY NC PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ON EAST DEVON ROAD.


&&

$$

TW

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KRNK [302327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 302327
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E MOUNT AIRY 36.50N 80.60W
09/30/2008 SURRY NC PUBLIC

TREE DOWN OFF MABE HALLOW ROAD.


&&

$$

TW

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KGSP [302324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302324
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL 8 SE FOREST CITY 35.25N 81.77W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH RUTHERFORD NC AMATEUR RADIO

NEAR HW-120 AND FAMILY DR.


&&

$$

BSH

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KRNK [302324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 302324
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL 1 E MOUNT AIRY 36.50N 80.60W
09/30/2008 E1.75 INCH SURRY NC PUBLIC

COVERED GROUND AND DESTROYED P/U TRUCK


&&

$$

TW

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KRNK [302321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 302321
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM HAIL MOUNT AIRY 36.50N 80.61W
09/30/2008 E1.75 INCH SURRY NC PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED GROUND


&&

$$

TW

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KJAX [302316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 302316
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0643 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW LITTLE ST. SIMONS 31.27N 81.36W
09/30/2008 GLYNN GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CENTRAL DISPATCH RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON
LAWRENCE ROAD. HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED BUT THE SIZE WAS
UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

DSHULER

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KGSP [302251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302251
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0643 PM HAIL 3 SW FOREST CITY 35.31N 81.91W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH RUTHERFORD NC TRAINED SPOTTER

IN THE DANIELTOWN AREA.


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302236
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL HARRIS 35.24N 81.87W
09/30/2008 E1.00 INCH RUTHERFORD NC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NED

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KGSP [302228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302228
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL 5 NNE STATESVILLE 35.85N 80.85W
09/30/2008 E1.25 INCH IREDELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM HAIL 6 SE STATESVILLE 35.73N 80.81W
09/30/2008 E1.00 INCH IREDELL NC AMATEUR RADIO

NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BETHESDA ROAD AND ARTIST LANE


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302215
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM HAIL 3 SW LATTIMORE 35.29N 81.70W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH CLEVELAND NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER OBSERVED HIGH WINDS WITH NO DAMAGE.


&&

$$

NED

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KGSP [302212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302212
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0603 PM HAIL 3 SE FOREST CITY 35.31N 81.83W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH RUTHERFORD NC TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZED HAIL ALONG MIDDLE STREET IN CAROLEEN.


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302209
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM HAIL 5 SE STATESVILLE 35.74N 80.82W
09/30/2008 E1.00 INCH IREDELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
HW-70 AND BETHESDA ROAD.


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302208
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 PM HAIL 2 SE STATESVILLE 35.77N 80.86W
09/30/2008 E0.88 INCH IREDELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NED

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KGSP [302159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302159
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 PM HAIL 2 S MILL SPRING 35.27N 82.16W
09/30/2008 E1.00 INCH POLK NC TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 PM HAIL STATESVILLE 35.79N 80.89W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH IREDELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER

ALONG HW-115 NEAR THE STATESVILLE CAMPUS OF GARDNER-WEBB
UNIVERSITY.


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302158
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM HAIL 2 NNW STATESVILLE 35.81N 80.90W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH IREDELL NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

REPORTED BY THE IREDELL RESCUE SQUAD.

0553 PM HAIL 2 NW STATESVILLE 35.81N 80.91W
09/30/2008 E1.00 INCH IREDELL NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0556 PM HAIL STATESVILLE 35.79N 80.89W
09/30/2008 E1.75 INCH IREDELL NC LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302153
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 2 N STATESVILLE 35.82N 80.89W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH IREDELL NC LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

NED

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KGSP [302148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302148
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 2 NW STATESVILLE 35.81N 80.91W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH IREDELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF I-40 AND HW-115.

0525 PM HAIL 4 NW MILL SPRING 35.34N 82.21W
09/30/2008 E0.88 INCH POLK NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

REPORTED BY THE SUNNY VIEW FIRE AND RESCUE.


&&

$$

BSH

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KMHX [302139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 302139
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
539 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 1 N WILLIAMSTON 35.87N 77.06W
09/30/2008 E0.50 INCH MARTIN NC EMERGENCY MNGR

FELL FOR 5 MINUTES.


&&

$$

BCULLEN

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KGSP [302134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302134
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM HAIL SCOTTS 35.84N 81.01W
09/30/2008 E0.88 INCH IREDELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302132
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 PM HAIL 4 E FLETCHER 35.43N 82.43W
09/30/2008 E0.88 INCH HENDERSON NC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF YOUNGS GAP ROAD AND LINDSEY
LOOP.


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302110
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM HAIL 1 W TAYLORSVILLE 35.92N 81.20W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH ALEXANDER NC TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HW-90 AND 3 FORKS CHURCH ROAD.

0445 PM HAIL 1 WNW TAYLORSVILLE 35.93N 81.20W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH ALEXANDER NC PUBLIC

COCORAHS OBSERVER IN TAYLORSVILLE REPORTS PENNY SIZED
HAIL.


&&

$$

BSH

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KGSP [302058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 302058
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM HAIL 2 ESE SKYLAND 35.47N 82.49W
09/30/2008 E0.75 INCH BUNCOMBE NC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS PENNY SIZED HAIL ON FOUR OAKS DRIVE.


&&

$$

BSH

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KAKQ [302048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 302048
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
447 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0404 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ENE GARYSBURG 36.48N 77.47W
09/30/2008 NORTHAMPTON NC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN AT PLEASANT GROVE RD AND RT 186.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KTBW [302035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 302035
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
434 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM LIGHTNING 5 S FORT MYERS 26.56N 81.86W
09/30/2008 LEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

LIGHTNING STRUCK A LARGE TREE THAT CAUSED DAMAGE TO 3
HOUSES ON WEST PARK AVENUE


&&

$$

CMR

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KCHS [301944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 301944
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM HAIL POOLER 32.12N 81.25W
09/30/2008 E0.50 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL FELL FOR 4 MINUTES.


&&

$$

VB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301920
SWODY1
SPC AC 301916

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES THE STRONGEST...MOST FOCUSED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD
CANOPY NEAR THE LEE TROUGH FROM CNTRL NC INTO SERN VA. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN
SO...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE AS
MLCAPE VALUES...500-1000 J/KG...ARE NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.

FARTHER NORTH...STRONGER FORCED FRONTAL SEGMENT IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST ACROSS PA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT GREATER.

IN BOTH CASES LITTLE MORE THAN GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.

...SOUTH FL...

A POCKET OF YET-TO-BE OVERTURNED INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER EXTREME
SOUTH FL WHERE MLCAPE IS ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS PROPAGATING ESEWD
ONSHORE OVER COLLIER/MONROE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA AND UPDRAFT INTERACTION WITH
SEA BREEZE COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.

...ELSEWHERE...

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH A GRADUAL
EXPANSION OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NV. BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING WILL GREATLY REDUCE COVERAGE BY 03Z.

..DARROW.. 09/30/2008

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KMHX [301832]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 301832
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM TORNADO 2 W FARMVILLE 35.59N 77.63W
09/26/2008 PITT NC PUBLIC

DAMAGE AT THE INTERSECTION OF CUPLELO AND LEWIS STORE RD
IN FARMVILLE. MINOR DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME, OUT BUILDING
CARRIED FOR APPROXIMATELY 50 YARDS AND DESTROYED,AND
SMALL ABANDONED HOME MOVED OFF FOUNDATION. RATED AT EF0.


&&

$$

JSCHULZ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301709
SWODY2
SPC AC 301706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN U.S./COASTAL NC...

12Z NAM/GFS BOTH AGREE THAT OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
FORCED TO EJECT NEWD AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...SWD INTO THE DELMARVA BY 18Z...THEN
NEAR THE NC COAST BY 00Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WITH STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR/JUST BEHIND
THE WIND SHIFT. SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST DEEP ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IT APPEARS ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THAN ORGANIZED. EVEN SO...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ARC ACROSS NC
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AS SBCAPE WILL LIKELY EXCEED
1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER IF
FORECAST CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH WITHIN VEERED SWLY FLOW
THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS REGION.

...ELSEWHERE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...HOWEVER WEAKENING CONVERGENCE WITHIN DEEPENING WLY FLOW
REGIME DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE.

A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE INTERIOR WEST...PRIMARILY
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...FROM THE SRN ROCKIES OF CO/NM INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MODULATE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 09/30/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301609
SWODY1
SPC AC 301606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
UPPER TROUGH GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SEWD WITH
STRONGER WIND FIELDS REMAINING W OF APPALACHIANS THRU THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR BUF ALONG OH RIVER TO
AR AND WILL MOVE E OF NRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY.

AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE/GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAINS AND WITH HEATING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO W
OF FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF 30KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM
500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
MID AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL BE LIMITED...THUS THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...SRN FL...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PCPN WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OF TROPICAL AIR MASS TO WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT MUCH OF MAINLAND FL.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE KEYS AND IMMEDIATE SERN COAST WHERE
COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE FRONT AND 20KT OF SHEAR ALONG WITH SOME
HEATING WILL CONTINUE A LOW THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS/A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO.

..HALES/SMITH.. 09/30/2008

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KSGF [301532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 301532
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 2 NW SALEM 37.67N 91.56W
09/29/2008 E0.88 INCH DENT MO PUBLIC

MINOR LEAF AND CAR DAMAGE.


&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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KMLB [301512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 301512
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1112 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1009 AM WATER SPOUT MELBOURNE 28.08N 80.61W
09/30/2008 BREVARD FL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SPECIAL WEATHER OBSERVATION FROM THE MELBOURNE
INTERNATIONAL ARPT WATERSPOUT B09 E WATERSPOUT END 30


&&

$$

FXD

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KMLB [301418]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 301418
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM WATER SPOUT 8 NE KENNEDY SPACE CENT 28.61N 80.59W
09/30/2008 AMZ552 FL OTHER FEDERAL

REPORT FROM U.S. AIR FORCE CAPE WEATHER

1005 AM WATER SPOUT 3 SE PATRICK AIR FORCE 28.20N 80.58W
09/30/2008 AMZ552 FL OTHER FEDERAL


&&

$$

FXD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301258
SWODY1
SPC AC 301255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. JET STREAK NOW DROPPING SSE
INTO MN EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT SHOULD
REACH SRN IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER OH WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NE ACROSS PA/NY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT IN ERN OH SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...WITH
THE SRN PART LIKELY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OR REDEVELOPING W
OVER CNTRL/ERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET AND A
WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF SAME WILL PERSIST OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

...MID ATLANTIC/APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC CST NWD INTO NY AND SE ONTARIO AS LEAD UPR IMPULSE OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH PIVOTS NE ACROSS REGION. SCTD SHOWERS AND...WITH
SFC HEATING...TSTMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY/FOLLOW ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS
IT CONTINUES E TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS
LATER TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE
CAROLINAS.

PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND...AND HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
JET...WILL TEMPER SFC HEATING ACROSS THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF COOL ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS AND NWD
MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE NOW OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD
YIELD SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J KG FROM ERN SC NNE TO THE
UPR CHESAPEAKE BAY.

DEEP SHEAR OVER THE E CNTRL U.S. WILL BE RATHER MODEST AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CONFINED TO DIGGING JET OVER THE UPR MS VLY. BUT
30+ KT MID LVL WSWLY FLOW COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/FORCING
FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO CLUSTERS/SHORT
LINES. THESE MULTICELL AND PERHAPS SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS IN A FEW
SPOTS. A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE THIS EVE FROM
CNTRL/ERN MD NEWD INTO ERN PA/DE AND NJ AS DEEP FLOW BEGINS TO BACK
AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL MOISTURE SPREADS N INTO REGION.

...S FL...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET AND OVERNIGHT MCS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OVER S FL TODAY. BUT CONTINUED NE
MOTION OF SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE UVV AND MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS REGION.
TSTMS SHOULD REDEVELOP INVOF WEAK FRONT OVER S FL...WHERE 30 KT
WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS. ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN RICH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. HOWEVER...OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 09/30/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300846
SWOD48
SPC AC 300846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A STRONG ZONAL
MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL NOSE OUT OF THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS
CONCERNING AN INITIAL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DIGGING
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF A LINGERING SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS APPEARS RELATED TO VARIABILITY
CONCERNING THE STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. EVEN IF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY...AS IS INDICATED POSSIBLE BY THE LATEST
ECMWF AND MREF ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT GULF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

..KERR.. 09/30/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300703
SWODY3
SPC AC 300701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY
COMMENCE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...AS THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG ZONAL
MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAKENING OF THE SHARP
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE...WHILE A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.

UPPER TROUGHING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PROGGED TO LINGER FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS MAY
SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
IMPEDED.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES APPEARS
LOW DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AND...LOW MOISTURE LEVELS/WEAK
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST.

..KERR.. 09/30/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300559
SWODY1
SPC AC 300558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE CONUS. AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WESTERN STATES...A DOWNSTREAM DIGGING UPPER JET WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES/APPALACHIANS TO CAROLINAS...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...STEADY
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY THROUGH
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SPREADING NORTHWARD VIA A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF/SOUTHEAST STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY MID LEVEL FEATURE AND DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN UPSWING IN TSTM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND/OR LEE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF FAVORABLE KINEMATICS BENEATH
CYCLONIC/MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...QUESTIONS REGARDING CLOUD
COVER/EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION/WAKE
REDEVELOPMENT PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...PENDING SUFFICIENT HEATING/SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...COOL PROFILES ALOFT /-13 TO -18C AT
500 MB/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS...IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS.
VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

...SOUTH FL...
DESTABILIZATION TODAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL...BUT THE
EASTWARD TRANSITION OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS TSTMS ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
SOUTH FL TODAY. PROVIDED MODEST HEATING/CLOUD BREAKS...SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY FAVOR SOME STRONG/PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 09/30/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300548
SWODY2
SPC AC 300545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG ZONAL JET NOSING ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE
PACIFIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THE CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO
DEFORM INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY...
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND U.S. ROCKIES. BUT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND
THE DOWNSTREAM LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA.

WITHIN THE SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN THE EAST...MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONCERNING SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...INCLUDING AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...ONE PIVOTING AROUND ITS NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY...ANOTHER AROUND ITS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE TIMING OF THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS
STILL UNCLEAR...AS IS THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE GREATER...PARTICULARLY ALONG
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

FARTHER NORTH...NEAR A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...CLOUD COVER PROBABLY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD
TO DESTABILIZATION. BUT...MID LEVEL FORCING/SHEAR IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS STILL A CONCERN.
BUT...GIVEN CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS OF POSSIBLE 1000- 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPE...IF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS
EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE... DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A NARROW LINE OF STORMS COULD FORM ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS AND THE OUTER BANKS BEFORE
ADVANCING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHY...WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA. BUT... THE
COVERAGE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE.

..KERR.. 09/30/2008

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