SWOD48
SPC AC 300846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2008
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A STRONG ZONAL
MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL NOSE OUT OF THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS
CONCERNING AN INITIAL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DIGGING
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF A LINGERING SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS APPEARS RELATED TO VARIABILITY
CONCERNING THE STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. EVEN IF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY...AS IS INDICATED POSSIBLE BY THE LATEST
ECMWF AND MREF ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT GULF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.
..KERR.. 09/30/2008
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