Saturday, September 15, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160052
SWODY1
SPC AC 160050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK/GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO REMAIN ACROSS
CANADA AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BUT INSTABILITY
IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE THUNDER
THREAT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO TX/THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/16/2012

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KSGX [152229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 152229
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
328 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT 2 N RANCHO BERNARDO 33.05N 117.06W
09/15/2012 E93 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 INJ *** 45 YEAR OLD WOMAN APPARENTLY SUFFERED HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND WAS AIRLIFTED FORM A HIKING TRAIL NEAR
LAKE HODGES. TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA WERE IN THE 90S AT
THE TIME.


&&

$$

JDANDR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151844
SWODY1
SPC AC 151842

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE...NO
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 09/15/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012/

...NEW ENGLAND...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SERN
PROVINCES OF CANADA TODAY AHEAD OF A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS ERN ME WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY EXPECTED BEFORE 21Z.

...SRN U.S...

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SRN U.S. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PW VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES.
POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS
THIS REGION.

OTHER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST
WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW ACROSS FL BUT MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
ALSO SUGGEST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST INTENSITY
ACROSS THIS REGION.

...NWRN MT...

STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM ERN WA INTO NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE IS
QUITE MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE
OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NWRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROVE VERY SPARSE AND CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151638
SWODY2
SPC AC 151637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN SD AND WRN NEB BY 00Z WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME WEAK
STORMS.

...SERN SD...SRN MN..NRN IA...SWRN WI...
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE CONVECTION-FREE...BUT HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SERN SD AND NERN NEB
WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS. FARTHER E...CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT BUT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE DEEPENS WITH
TIME...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE FRONT. WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE AREA FOR
MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 09/15/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151609
SWODY1
SPC AC 151607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NEW ENGLAND...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SERN
PROVINCES OF CANADA TODAY AHEAD OF A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS ERN ME WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY EXPECTED BEFORE 21Z.

...SRN U.S...

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SRN U.S. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PW VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES.
POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS
THIS REGION.

OTHER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST
WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW ACROSS FL BUT MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
ALSO SUGGEST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST INTENSITY
ACROSS THIS REGION.

...NWRN MT...

STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM ERN WA INTO NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE IS
QUITE MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE
OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NWRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROVE VERY SPARSE AND CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

..DARROW.. 09/15/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151204
SWODY1
SPC AC 151202

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM WRN NY TO CNTRL QUEBEC THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SHIFT E/NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A LIMITED
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ACROSS ERN MAINE AS SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY
TRACKS EWD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. FURTHER SW...A WEAK TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER W TX AND NRN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN
VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAY HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WRN MT MOUNTAINS.

...ERN MAINE...
LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH BROKEN CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENCROACHES ON THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WEAK SBCAPE /LESS THAN 750 J PER
KG/...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND REPORT BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM WRN
AR INTO ERN TX. POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 09/15/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150830
SWOD48
SPC AC 150829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP FROM HUDSON BAY
SWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO N-CENTRAL/NWRN GULF DAY-4. BY
19/00Z...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/DAY-3
OUTLOOKS...SHOULD REACH INLAND MID-ATLC REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...PERHAPS AS FAR E AS VA-GA PIEDMONT REGION. STG
LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR...WITH PREFRONTAL 60S DEW
POINTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER 60S TO 70S FROM COASTAL
MID-ATLC SWD. LIKELY STG COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO FRONT
MAY BE ONE LIMITING FACTOR...AS WOULD BE MRGL LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
HOWEVER...JUXTAPOSITION OF INCREASING WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD CORRIDOR OF
CONCENTRATED LOW-CAPE/STG-SHEAR SVR THREAT...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND.

DAY-5/19TH/20TH...SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/DIURNAL HEATING CAN OCCUR TO
YIELD AT LEAST MRGL PREFRONTAL CAPE. HOWEVER...GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON SPEED/TIMING OF FROPA PRECLUDES SPECIFIC 30% UNCONDITIONAL-SVR
LINE ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150554
SWODY2
SPC AC 150552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT THIS PERIOD...AS RELATIVELY
LOW-AMPLITUDE NRN-STREAM CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NRN CONUS YIELDS TO
STRENGTHENING MEAN TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. TWO
MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS...

1. SERIES OF SMALL/WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SPEED MAX NOW OVER NWRN
CANADA IS FCST TO PHASE AND STRENGTHEN DAY-1 WHILE MOVING SEWD AWAY
FROM BUILDING MEAN RIDGE. BY START OF PERIOD...THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN MB WSWWD ACROSS SK TO
ERN AB. DURING DAY-2...NRN PORTION OF ITS VORTICITY FIELD WILL
CALVE OFF AND EJECT ENEWD OVER SRN HUDSON BAY...WHILE SRN PORTION
PROCEEDS SEWD AND AMPLIFIES FURTHER. BY 17/12Z...STG HEIGHT FALLS
ARE FCST OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHES NWRN MN...CENTRAL SD AND WRN NEB. AT
SFC...STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM 16/12Z POSITION NEAR
THUNDER BAY AND ABR-RAP-BIL LINE TO 17/00Z POSITION FROM ISLE ROYALE
AREA SWWD TO WEAK WAVE LOW BETWEEN YKN-VTN...AND EXTREME SERN WY.
AT THAT TIME...DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN SANDHILLS OF NEB SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK AND SW TX...AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
COLD FRONT FROM N-S THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. BY END OF
PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LS SWWD ACROSS IA TO CENTRAL/SWRN
KS AND NERN NM.

2. SW-NE ELONGATED MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW CENTERED OVER SRN NM --
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL/ERN TX MOSTLY IN
OPEN-WAVE CONFIGURATION. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SLGT POSITIVE
TILT THROUGH PERIOD. WHILE PROGS ARE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING AND PHASE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO...THERE STILL IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG SREF MEMBERS AND
OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/NAM REGARDING AMPLITUDE. THIS...IN
TURN...RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE...WITH WEAK SPECTRAL SFC TROUGH AND PRONOUNCED NAM SFC LOW
OVER N-CENTRAL GULF APPROXIMATING SREF EXTREMES ON EITHER END.

...NERN NEB TO WI...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF FRONT
IMPINGING ON PROGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
MASS...DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. COVERAGE IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM SIOUX-LAND AREA INTO NRN NEB DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR STRONGER EML-RELATED MLCINH...THOUGH
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY
DISCRETE. BY AFTERNOON...MOIST ADVECTION/TRANSPORT SHOULD LEAD TO
CORRIDOR OF 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN SERN SD/SRN
MN/WRN WI CORRIDOR...AND SOME VEERING/CURVATURE TO LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...BUT WITH ONLY 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WRN WI NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI.
ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL AND TRANSIENT FOR CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150533
SWODY1
SPC AC 150531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E/NEWD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT ALL
BUT ERN ME BY LATE MORNING. FARTHER SW...A PERSISTENT/ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE AZ/NM/SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER
WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE WRN GULF COAST TO TEXARKANA.

...ERN ME...
A BRIEF TIME WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWEEPS E OF THE STATE
AROUND NOON. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT THE
SLOWER SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM SUGGESTS WEAK HEATING
COULD YIELD SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL LARGELY
PARALLEL THE FRONT...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...TEXARKANA...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS SHOULD FORM ONCE AGAIN INVOF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND CORRIDORS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS A
JET STREAK EJECTS NEWD FROM FAR W TX. STILL WITHIN A POOR
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN PULSE
TO WEAKLY-ORGANIZED AND THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 09/15/2012

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