Wednesday, October 24, 2007

KRNK [250310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KRNK 250310
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1109 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD SNOW CREEK 36.83N 79.75W
10/24/2007 FRANKLIN VA MESONET

4.95 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED BETWEEN 1530 AND 1830 LST AT
THE EDWIN MITCHELL FARM

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 12 E MARTINSVILLE AIRPO 36.63N 79.80W
10/24/2007 HENRY VA MESONET

3.95 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED BETWEEN 1530 AND 1830 LST AT
THE HYDRO ELECTRIC PLANT


&&

$$

RSTONEFI

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KRAH [250252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KRAH 250252
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1052 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0327 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE LOUISBURG 36.07N 78.17W
10/24/2007 FRANKLIN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 INJ *** NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN AT
PREACHER BALL RD. AND EDWARD BEST RD. A CAMPER TRAILER
WAS TURNED OVER WITH MINOR INJURIES OCCURING TO ONE
PERSON INSIDE AND SOME STURCTURES WERE DAMAGE AT THIS
LOCATION AS WELL.


&&

$$

BSD

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KRNK [250250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 250250
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1050 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM FLASH FLOOD GLADYS 37.17N 79.08W
10/24/2007 CAMPBELL VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

6-8 INCHES OF WATER ALONG COLLINS FERRY ROAD. NO CROSS
ROAD GIVEN.

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG GLADYS 37.17N 79.08W
10/24/2007 CAMPBELL VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE DOWN ALONG LONG ISLAND ROAD. NO CROSS ROAD
GIVEN.


&&

$$

RSTONEFI

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KRNK [250059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 250059
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
857 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0832 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 E MARTINSVILLE AIRPO 36.63N 79.80W
10/24/2007 HENRY VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN BLOCKING NORTHSIDE DRIVE

0832 PM FLASH FLOOD 12 E MARTINSVILLE AIRPO 36.63N 79.80W
10/24/2007 HENRY VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

REEVES ROAD FLOODED AND COVERED WITH MUD.

0832 PM FLASH FLOOD 12 E MARTINSVILLE AIRPO 36.63N 79.80W
10/24/2007 HENRY VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIBERTY STREET FLOODED.

0832 PM TSTM WND DMG 14 NE MARTINSVILLE AIRP 36.77N 79.84W
10/24/2007 HENRY VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON DYERS STORE ROAD

0830 PM FLOOD 12 E MARTINSVILLE AIRPO 36.63N 79.80W
10/24/2007 HENRY VA MESONET

3.95 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED BETWEEN 1530 AND 1830 LST AT
THE HYDRO ELECTRIC PLANT

0830 PM FLOOD SNOW CREEK 36.83N 79.75W
10/24/2007 FRANKLIN VA MESONET

4.95 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED BETWEEN 1530 AND 1830 LST AT
THE EDWIN MITCHELL FARM

0830 PM FLASH FLOOD SNOW CREEK 36.83N 79.75W
10/24/2007 FRANKLIN VA PUBLIC

SMALL STREAMS FEEDING INTO SNOW CREEK OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
SNOW CREEK REPORTED NEAR BANK FULL.


&&

$$

11

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KKEY [250056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 250056
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
856 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N BIG PINE KEY 24.70N 81.37W
10/24/2007 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A WATERSPOUT JUST NORTH
OF BIG PINE KEY. IT BEGAN AT 545 PM AND ENDED AT 603 PM


&&

$$

FUTTERMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250048
SWODY1
SPC AC 250045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SERN VA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS FROM SERN VA INTO N CNTRL NC WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD INTO NWRN GA. A
COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM ERN SC NWD INTO N CNTRL NC WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT. EVENING DATA SHOW A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WARM SECTOR WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1200 J/KG AND MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN MS IS LARGELY EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN
NATURE AND WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH RESULTING MEDIOCRE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR. UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS
ADVANCING NWD WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST OR
TWO THIS EVENING.

.DIAL.. 10/25/2007

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KBMX [250029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KBMX 250029
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
729 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 PM TORNADO 4 NNE FAUNSDALE 32.52N 87.58W
10/22/2007 F1 HALE AL NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 2 INJ *** A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM SURVEYED THE AREA
AND FOUND A PATH LENGTH OF 9.4 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 50
YARDS. ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 100 MPH. OVER 20 HOMES AND 20
CARS WERE DAMAGED. ONE AIRPLANE HANGER DAMAGED. DAMAGE
WAS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 12...COUNTY ROAD 10...COUNTY ROAD
16...AND COUNTY ROAD 24. THERE WERE TWO INJURIES.

1201 AM TORNADO 2 N ELLARDS 32.84N 87.27W
10/23/2007 F1 BIBB AL NWS STORM SURVEY

A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE NEAR
BRENT WAS THE RESULT OF A TORNADO. THE PATH LENGTH WAS
7.5 MILES LONG AND 200 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. AT
LEAST 3 HOMES SUFFERED MINOR DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES AND A
FEW POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE PATH.THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG BEAR CREEK ROAD.

1230 AM TSTM WND DMG MARION 32.63N 87.32W
10/23/2007 PERRY AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN WITH DAMAGE TO A HOME ON COUNTY ROAD
200 IN THE CITY OF MARION

1235 AM TSTM WND DMG SELMA 32.42N 87.03W
10/23/2007 DALLAS AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE AT 11 ACKERS ALLEY IN DOWNTOWN
SELMA.

1235 AM TSTM WND DMG SELMA 32.42N 87.03W
10/23/2007 DALLAS AL EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER POLES AND LINES DOWN AT THE 1600 BLOCK OF
WASHINGTON STREET IN DOWNTOWN SELMA. TREE DAMAGE TO A

HOME IN SELMA. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG HWYS 22 AND 219.

0100 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 W THORSBY 32.92N 86.78W
10/23/2007 CHILTON AL PUBLIC

NUMEROUS 2-3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWNED ACROSS ROADS.

0115 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 W MOSSES 32.17N 86.73W
10/23/2007 LOWNDES AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAYS.

0115 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW BRAGGS 32.07N 86.83W
10/23/2007 LOWNDES AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 45.

0127 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 E COLUMBIANA 33.18N 86.55W
10/23/2007 SHELBY AL UTILITY COMPANY

POWER POLE AND LINES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 28 IN EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

0130 AM TSTM WND DMG AUTAUGAVILLE 32.43N 86.66W
10/23/2007 AUTAUGA AL PUBLIC

NUMEROUS 2-3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS ROADS. SCHOOLS
IN AUTAUGAVILLE DELAYED UNTIL ROADS CLEARED.

0134 AM TORNADO 4 NNE HAYNEVILLE 32.23N 86.54W
10/23/2007 F1 LOWNDES AL NWS STORM SURVEY

A SURVEY CREW FOUND EVIDENCE OF AN EF1 TORNADO NORTHEAST
OF THE TOWN OF HAYNEVILLE. THE PATH LENGTH IS 3.25 MILES
LONG AND 100 YARDS AT ITS WIDEST POINT. CREWS FOUND
DAMAGE AT MT. OLIVE CHURCH AND THE AUXILIARY MT. OLIVE
CHURCH ON FREDERICK DOUGLASS ROAD...ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HAYNEVILLE. MULTIPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN
IN THE SAME AREA. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TORNADO WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH IN THE MT. OLIVE CHURCH
AREA.

0207 AM TSTM WND DMG WINTERBORO 33.32N 86.19W
10/23/2007 TALLADEGA AL NWS STORM SURVEY

DOWNBURST CAUSED OLD RADIATOR SHOP ROOF BUILDING
COLLAPSE...ON STATE HIGHWAY 21...1/4 MILE SOUTH OF THE
INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 21 AND STATE HIGHWAY 76.
MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DOWNBURST WERE
ESTIMATED AROUND 80 MPH.

0215 AM TSTM WND DMG SYLACAUGA 33.18N 86.26W
10/23/2007 TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY INCLUDING SYLACAUGA, TALLADEGA, WINTERBORO AND
CHILDERSBURG.

0224 AM TSTM WND DMG KELLYTON 32.98N 86.03W
10/23/2007 COOSA AL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LARGE TREES DOWNED IN KELLYTON

0245 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 E FORT DEPOSIT 31.99N 86.53W
10/23/2007 LOWNDES AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED AS WELL AS SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE
NEAR SANDY RIDGE.

0330 AM TSTM WND DMG GADSDEN 34.01N 86.01W
10/23/2007 ETOWAH AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES FELL THROUGH 2 HOUSES CAUSING SEVERE DAMAGE
ON NORTH 33RD STREET IN DOWNTOWN GADSDEN.


&&

$$

JWRIGHT

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KBMX [250025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBMX 250025
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0207 AM TSTM WND DMG WINTERBORO 33.32N 86.19W
10/23/2007 TALLADEGA AL NWS STORM SURVEY

DOWNBURST CAUSED OLD RADIATOR SHOP ROOF BUILDING
COLLAPSE...ON STATE HIGHWAY 21...1/4 MILE SOUTH OF THE
INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 21 AND STATE HIGHWAY 76.
MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DOWNBURST WERE
ESTIMATED AROUND 80 MPH.


&&

$$

JWRIGHT

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KBMX [250015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 250015
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0207 AM TSTM WND GST WINTERBORO 33.32N 86.19W
10/23/2007 E80.00 MPH TALLADEGA AL NWS STORM SURVEY

DOWNBURST CAUSED OLD RADIATOR SHOP ROOF BUILDING
COLLAPSE...ON STATE HIGHWAY 21...1/4 MILE SOUTH OF THE
INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 21 AND STATE HIGHWAY 76.


&&

$$

JWRIGHT

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KJAN [242226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KJAN 242226
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
525 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0908 PM TORNADO 11 ESE THORNTON 33.02N 90.15W
10/18/2007 F0 HOLMES MS NWS STORM SURVEY

NARROW PATH OF SOME TREES DOWNED AND LARGE LIMBS SNAPPED
NEAR THE TOLARVILLE COMMUNITY. PATH LENGTH 2
MILES...MAXIMUM WIDTH 25 YD.

0554 PM TORNADO 3 SW MOORHEAD 33.42N 90.54W
10/22/2007 F1 SUNFLOWER MS NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO STARTED IN A FARM FIELD...LEVELING CROPS IN A
PATH 100-150 YD WIDE. TORNADO THEN MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF MOORHEAD WHERE A NUMBER OF TREES
SNAPPED OFF...TOP PEELED OFF A BARN...OUTBUILDING HEAVILY
DAMAGED...METAL GAZEBO THROWN ONTO HOUSE...METAL WALKWAY
AT MIDDLE SCHOOL DESTROYED. PATH LENGTH 4 MILES...MAX
WIDTH 150 YD.


&&

$$

AG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2136

ACUS11 KWNS 242050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242050
NCZ000-VAZ000-242245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242050Z - 242245Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC.
MDT INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO POCKETS OF HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. A GENERALLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
LAYER ALONG WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE
THREAT OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
CONVECTION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOES EXIST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH 100-150 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH NOTED ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. IN
ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ROTATION WITHIN
STORMS. THE AIR MASS COOLS INTO THE 60S N OF THE FRONT...AND THUS
ANY TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND JUST S OF
THE FRONT WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS EXTEND TO THE SURFACE.

.JEWELL.. 10/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

36517573 35957619 35457798 35447920 36688028 37227966
37117808 37237677 37207612

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KCHS [242025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 242025
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
425 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG JAMES ISLAND 32.73N 79.93W
10/24/2007 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

3 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR THE
CENTERVILLE SUBDIVISION. ESTIMATES WINDS OVER 30 MPH.
ALSO REPORTS THAT PARTS OF CAMP ROAD AND FOLLY ROAD HAVE
CONSIDERABLE STANDING WATER BUT ARE NOT CLOSED.


&&

$$

33

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KRAH [242019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 242019
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0327 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE LOUISBURG 36.07N 78.17W
10/24/2007 FRANKLIN NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN AT PREACHER BALL
RD. AND EDWARD BEST RD. A CAMPER TRAILER WAS TURNED OVER
WITH MINOR INJURIES OCCURING TO ONE PERSON INSIDE AND
SOME STURCTURES WERE DAMAGE AT THIS LOCATION AS WELL.


&&

$$

BSD

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KCHS [242017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 242017
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0411 PM HEAVY RAIN CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/24/2007 U0.00 INCH CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

PARTS OF EAST BAY STREET IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON IS
IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY RAINS.


&&

$$

33

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KHUN [241939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KHUN 241939
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 AM TSTM WND DMG HENAGAR 34.63N 85.74W
10/23/2007 DEKALB AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

PINE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

0100 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 N IDER 34.71N 85.66W
10/23/2007 DEKALB AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW TREES DOWN ONTO COUNTY ROAD 140.

0100 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE FORT PAYNE 34.50N 85.62W
10/23/2007 DEKALB AL PARK/FOREST SRVC

A TALL PINE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN AT THE DESOTO STATE PARK
CAMPGROUND.

0103 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE IDER 34.73N 85.65W
10/23/2007 DEKALB AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN A TREE ONTO COUNTY ROAD 776.


0108 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 S MENTONE 34.56N 85.58W
10/23/2007 DEKALB AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW A TREE DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD
89.

0110 AM TSTM WND DMG N MENTONE 34.57N 85.58W
10/23/2007 DEKALB AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN TREES ACROSS HIGHWAY 117.


&&

$$

KULA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241933
SWODY1
SPC AC 241930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF N-S COLD FRONT -- NOW LYING FROM CENTRAL
NC INTO ERN SC -- AND S OF E-W FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM SERN VA
WWD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER -- HAS RESULTED IN MODEST HEATING OF THE
MOIST WARM-SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...WITH ONLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION.

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALSO REMAINS GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LIMITED.
0-1 KM SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...AND A FEW
STRONGER CELLS HAVE SHOWN SOME WEAK/TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS.
OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES AND LOCAL LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALONG
SMALL-SCALE COLD POOLS SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE. ANY REMAINING THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION.

.GOSS.. 10/24/2007

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KRNK [241907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 241907
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW MILTON 36.53N 79.24W
10/24/2007 CASWELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD


&&

$$

AMS

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KBMX [241823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBMX 241823
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
123 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 PM TORNADO 4 NNE FAUNSDALE 32.52N 87.58W
10/22/2007 F1 HALE AL NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 2 INJ *** A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM SURVEYED THE AREA
AND FOUND A PATH LENGTH OF 9.4 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 50
YARDS. ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 100 MPH. OVER 20 HOMES AND 20
CARS WERE DAMAGED. ONE AIRPLANE HANGER DAMAGED. DAMAGE
WAS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 12...COUNTY ROAD 10...COUNTY ROAD
16...AND COUNTY ROAD 24. THERE WERE TWO INJURIES.


&&

$$

LINHARES

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KBMX [241724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBMX 241724
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 AM TORNADO 4 NNE HAYNEVILLE 32.23N 86.54W
10/23/2007 F1 LOWNDES AL NWS STORM SURVEY

A SURVEY CREW FOUND EVIDENCE OF AN EF1 TORNADO NORTHEAST
OF THE TOWN OF HAYNEVILLE. THE PATH LENGTH IS 3.25 MILES
LONG AND 100 YARDS AT ITS WIDEST POINT. CREWS FOUND
DAMAGE AT MT. OLIVE CHURCH AND THE AUXILIARY MT. OLIVE
CHURCH ON FREDERICK DOUGLASS ROAD...ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HAYNEVILLE. MULTIPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN
IN THE SAME AREA. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TORNADO WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH IN THE MT. OLIVE CHURCH
AREA.


&&

$$

LINHARES

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241717
SWODY2
SPC AC 241714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST
TO RETROGRADE NWWD TOWARD THE OZARKS REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS WWD INTO THE ERN CONUS.

FURTHER WEST...A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AND SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES/INTO THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN UPPER TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW
WILL FILL AND DRIFT NWWD...WHILE A DAMMING FRONT IN LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS CONTINUES MOVING SWD INTO THE SERN STATES.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ERN U.S. -- PARTICULARLY FROM COASTAL AREAS EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...WITHIN MOIST/WEAKLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
GIVEN ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
DECREASING WIND FIELD...LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

.GOSS.. 10/24/2007

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KPAH [241644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 241644
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1143 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM TORNADO 3 SE DAWSON SPRINGS 37.14N 87.65W
10/18/2007 CHRISTIAN KY NWS STORM SURVEY

LATE REPORT...STORM DAMAGE SURVEY REVEALED A LARGE AREA
OF TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...SEVERAL HUNDRED YARDS
WIDE. A MOBILE HOME WAS ALSO DAMAGES. TORNADO INTENSITY
EF-2 WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF 115 MPH.

0750 PM TORNADO 5 ESE DAWSON SPRINGS 37.15N 87.60W
10/18/2007 HOPKINS KY NWS STORM SURVEY

LATE REPORT...STORM DAMAGE SURVEY REVEALED NUMEROUS TREES
SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. THREE MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED...ONE
WITH BENT FRAME.BARNS AND A HOUSE WERE DAMAGED ALONG
PATH. TORNADO RATED EF-2 WITH PEAK WINDS OF 120 MPH.


&&

$$

PATS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241620
SWODY1
SPC AC 241617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CAROLINAS/VA THIS AFTERNOON...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER MS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TIGHT
CYCLONIC LOOP OVER MS/AL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS A NRN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BYPASSES THIS AREA TO THE N. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW INVOF N GA WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS ACROSS ERN SC AND CENTRAL NC...AND A
SEPARATE COLD FRONT SAGS SWD ACROSS VA IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM BANDS/CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM ERN SC NWD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO S CENTRAL VA WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN NC INTO SE
VA...IMMEDIATELY E OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION. HERE...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR ARE UNLIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE W...AND THE DEPARTURE BY TONIGHT OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION TO THE MID-UPPER JET OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOB 35 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOB 100
M2/S2...SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON.

.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/24/2007

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KAKQ [241559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 241559
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1159 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE LAWRENCEVILLE 36.78N 77.83W
10/24/2007 BRUNSWICK VA COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN JUST NORTHEAST OF
LAWRENCEVILLE...AND IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS
BRUNSWICK COUNTY


&&

$$

MONTEFUSCO

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KBMX [241528]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBMX 241528
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1028 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 AM TORNADO 2 N ELLARDS 32.84N 87.27W
10/23/2007 F1 BIBB AL NWS STORM SURVEY

A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE NEAR
BRENT WAS THE RESULT OF A TORNADO. THE PATH LENGTH WAS
7.5 MILES LONG AND 200 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST POINT. AT
LEAST 3 HOMES SUFFERED MINOR DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES AND A
FEW POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE PATH.THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG BEAR CREEK ROAD.


&&

$$

LINHARES

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KGSP [241422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 241422
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG 13 NNW PICKENS 35.06N 82.80W
10/23/2007 PICKENS SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY COMMS REPORTS TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 178 NEAR ROCKY
BOTTOM. STATE PARK OFFICIAL REPORTS 2-3 INCH LIMBS BLOWN
DOWN ALONG HWY 178 NEAR THE NC BORDER.


&&

$$

LANE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241235
SWODY1
SPC AC 241233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN VA/CAROLINAS INTO FL...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD OFF THE GA COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND SEWD ACROSS ALL BUT SERN FL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. NRN
END OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN AND PART OF
CENTRAL SC/NC TO THE ENE OF SURFACE LOW PERSISTING OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AS UPPER LOW HOLDS OVER MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS OUTRUN STRONGEST SLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND VWPS INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING.

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT E OF THE COLD FRONT AND S OF THE WEDGE FRONT.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES
TODAY...DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...
WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY.
THE MOIST AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO. FARTHER SOUTH INTO FL...STRONGER
HEATING WITHIN RICH MOISTURE SHOULD FOSTER SLIGHTLY HIGHER MLCAPE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAKER
THAN OVER THE CAROLINAS. HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT 7-8 C/KM LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.EVANS/BRIGHT.. 10/24/2007

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KTBW [241156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 241156
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
755 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 W LAND O' LAKES 28.22N 82.54W
10/24/2007 PASCO FL PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED FROM 54 COLLIER PARKWAY NEAR LAND O
LAKES


&&

$$

REYNES

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240835
SWOD48
SPC AC 240834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE THAT MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY BECOME A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AIDS IN EJECTING THE WELL-FORMED
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PHASING OF THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM AND THE EJECTING LOW/SHORT WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY DAY 5. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY DAY 6. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

WHILE DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BEYOND DAY 4...FL APPEARS TO BE THE ONE
LOCATION WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. WITH RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WEAK TROUGHING
ON THE LARGE SCALE...TSTMS WILL REMAIN A DAILY POSSIBILITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG BUT
THE PROSPECT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.CARBIN.. 10/24/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240625
SWODY3
SPC AC 240624

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW
REFORMING NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE PERIOD. A STRONG IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ACROSS CANADA...WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA AS LOW LEVEL
NLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS. UPPER
RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND PERSIST OFF THE EAST COAST.

..SOUTHEAST COAST TO OH VALLEY...
PATTERN ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAY WITH A
RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR EXTENDING FROM FL AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS NWD AND NWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO ADVANCE NEWD. STRONGER SHEAR AND FORCING WILL SPREAD ATOP
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER INLAND AREAS...WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST/FL WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM
STRONGER LIFT AND FLOW. THUS...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.CARBIN.. 10/24/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240546
SWODY2
SPC AC 240545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TO A POSITION OVER AR/MO BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
BAROTROPIC CYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG WLY FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST AND NRN PLAINS
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER THE LOW MORE EWD BEFORE THE SYSTEM OPENS
UP BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE SEWD ACROSS MT AND THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

..SOUTHEAST...
BROAD ZONE OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL SET UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST NWWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY AND THE STRENGTHENING
ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST. LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND UPSLOPE FLOW FARTHER
INLAND WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MORE FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING...AND GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS...MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE WEDGE AND COASTAL FRONTS FORECAST TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CAROLINAS. A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS IN
PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR
THESE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LOCATION AND
STRENGTH...IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE EVEN LOW SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES.

.CARBIN.. 10/24/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240543
SWODY1
SPC AC 240540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER MS VALLEY
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SLIGHTLY EWD TODAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
TOWARD THE WNW TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEDGE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD IN LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

..CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE GA COAST BY MID-LATE
MORNING...WHILE FARTHER N...THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS SC/NC REACHING CENTRAL NC TO ERN SC BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION TODAY. THUS...DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT E OF THE COLD FRONT AND S OF THE WEDGE FRONT. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. THE MOIST
AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND/
OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

..FL...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING/STRONGER INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AND SRN FL TODAY AHEAD OF THE
EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING THE
FRONT AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY.
DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...7-8
C/KM LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.PETERS/GRAMS.. 10/24/2007

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