MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2136

ACUS11 KWNS 242050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242050
NCZ000-VAZ000-242245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242050Z - 242245Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC.
MDT INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO POCKETS OF HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. A GENERALLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
LAYER ALONG WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE
THREAT OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
CONVECTION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOES EXIST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH 100-150 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH NOTED ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. IN
ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ROTATION WITHIN
STORMS. THE AIR MASS COOLS INTO THE 60S N OF THE FRONT...AND THUS
ANY TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND JUST S OF
THE FRONT WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS EXTEND TO THE SURFACE.

.JEWELL.. 10/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

36517573 35957619 35457798 35447920 36688028 37227966
37117808 37237677 37207612

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.