Friday, November 9, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100451
SWODY1
SPC AC 100449

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS ERN US TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...AND SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER NWRN STATES.
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE SRN
ROCKIES.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN
STATES...AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN PLATEAU/SRN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...REACHING A NRN HIGH
PLAINS/NRN WY/NRN NV/NRN CA LINE BY 11/12Z....WHILE A NW/SE ORIENTED
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO/MIDDLE MS
VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT.

..WRN WA/EXTREME NWRN OREGON...
LEADING EDGE OF COLD UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPROACHING 136W ACCOMPANIED BY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACCORDING TO NLDN OCEANIC DATA. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS WRN WA BY 18Z...AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN WA AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME NWRN OREGON BY 18-21Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AFTER 11/06Z.

..ERN TX/WRN LA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER ERN TX AND LA WITH 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA INDICATING GREATER THAN 1 INCH PW. DIURNAL
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUFFICIENTLY FOR MLCAPE TO REACH 500-750 J/KG. LARGE SCALE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY...SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH STRONG ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO PARTS OF MO/IA/IL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850-800 MB RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIFT WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 00-03Z OVER PARTS OF NRN
MO AND IA...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO NRN/CNTRL IL AND
POSSIBLY SRN WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.WEISS.. 11/10/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100039
SWODY1
SPC AC 100036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..WA COAST...
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN PACIFIC AS A STRONG ZONAL JET PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC. INITIAL SYSTEM BETWEEN 130-135W WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY...WHILE CELLULAR CONVECTION AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH WEST OF 145W ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..NRN SIERRA MTNS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BY NLDN LIGHTNING DATA
THIS AFTERNOON IN REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL CA. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
02-03Z AS DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTS SEWD TOWARD SRN NV AND ENVIRONMENT
STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.

.WEISS.. 11/10/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091927
SWODY1
SPC AC 091924

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN GULF COAST INTO THE S CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CONTINUES. AND...WHILE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW INLAND IS
PRECLUDING A RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW AXIS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IS NOW OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF
HOUSTON THROUGH NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AND...DEEPENING CONVECTION
HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
INHIBITION FOR MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE...A GENERALLY SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROBABLY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
UPDRAFTS MAY OCCASIONALLY PENETRATE THROUGH MIXED PHASE
LAYER...SUPPORTING CHARGE SEPARATION/CLOUD ELECTRIFICATION...BUT
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AS ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES INLAND AND WEAKENS WITHIN A
BROADER SCALE RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
..ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... ONSHORE
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN WEST OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES...ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING
CONVECTION WITHIN A BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INLAND
TONIGHT. BUT...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING REMAINING WEST OF
COASTAL AREAS...GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING BEYOND HIGHLY
SPORADIC/ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.KERR.. 11/09/2007

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KDLH [091831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 091831
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW COOK 47.85N 92.69W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW TOWER 47.81N 92.29W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 3 SE ORR 48.03N 92.77W
11/09/2007 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW YELLOWLAKE 45.94N 92.38W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 3 WSW HINCKLEY 46.00N 93.00W
11/09/2007 M0.3 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.46W
11/09/2007 M0.4 INCH AITKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
11/09/2007 M1.3 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM SNOW TWIG 46.89N 92.36W
11/09/2007 M0.9 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM SNOW 15 N GRAND RAPIDS 47.45N 93.52W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM SNOW RANIER 48.61N 93.35W
11/09/2007 M1.3 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 3 NE NISSWA 46.53N 94.25W
11/09/2007 M0.5 INCH CROW WING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 AM SNOW 5 S HERBSTER 46.76N 91.26W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 AM SNOW LITTLEFORK 48.40N 93.56W
11/09/2007 M1.2 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW COZY CORNER 46.16N 92.24W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
11/09/2007 M1.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0900 AM SNOW 8 S HAYWARD 45.89N 91.48W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 1 S WEBSTER 45.86N 92.36W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW WRENSHALL 46.62N 92.38W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW MAPLE 46.59N 91.72W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER

1035 AM SNOW 8 S HAYWARD 45.89N 91.48W
11/09/2007 M2.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 AM SNOW 3 SW LITTLEFORK 48.37N 93.60W
11/09/2007 M0.8 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

1035 AM SNOW 8 WSW DRUMMOND 46.29N 91.41W
11/09/2007 M1.3 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

1035 AM SNOW 10 N BRULE 46.70N 91.58W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 AM SNOW DANBURY 46.01N 92.37W
11/09/2007 M2.5 INCH BURNETT WI CO-OP OBSERVER

1155 AM SNOW EXELAND 45.67N 91.24W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1155 AM SNOW 5 NW CLOQUET 46.78N 92.57W
11/09/2007 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KMD

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KDLH [091826]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091826
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM SNOW EXELAND 45.67N 91.24W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KMD

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KDLH [091807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091807
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1207 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM SNOW DANBURY 46.01N 92.37W
11/09/2007 M2.5 INCH BURNETT WI CO-OP OBSERVER

1155 AM SNOW 5 NW CLOQUET 46.78N 92.57W
11/09/2007 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KMD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GENERALLY ZONAL SPLIT UPPER FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM
OF A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER JET NOSING ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS.
AN INITIAL EMBEDDED JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS...INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...BEFORE WEAKENING AS A MORE INTENSE UPSTREAM JET CORE
GRADUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC.

IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FORM/DEEPEN TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
AND...A BROADENING/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A CONTINUING RETURN FLOW OFF A MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

..EAST OF ROCKIES...
BROAD SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING IN BOTH THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. AND...CAPPING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM LAYERS
EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN/SOUTHERN U.S. PLATEAU REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ABOVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI...WITHIN BROADER ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
REGIME. THIS IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AND...MOISTENING
ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH/EAST OF
STRONGER CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. CAPE AND SHEAR IN
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL
IN SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BUT...THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING BENEATH A
GENERALLY CONFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHILE PROBABLY ALSO LIMITING THE VIGOR OF
THE UPDRAFTS.

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS COASTAL AREAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INLAND PROGRESSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH...DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINGERING ONSHORE/
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO THE WEST OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

.KERR.. 11/09/2007

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KDLH [091702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091702
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1102 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM SNOW 8 S HAYWARD 45.89N 91.48W
11/09/2007 M2.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KMD

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KDLH [091701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091701
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1101 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM SNOW 10 N BRULE 46.70N 91.58W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 AM SNOW 8 WSW DRUMMOND 46.29N 91.41W
11/09/2007 M1.3 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

1035 AM SNOW 3 SW LITTLEFORK 48.37N 93.60W
11/09/2007 M0.8 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

KMD

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KMQT [091646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 091646
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1146 AM EST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 11 WSW WATERSMEET 46.21N 89.39W
11/06/2007 M8.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS.

0800 AM SNOW HERMAN 46.67N 88.37W
11/06/2007 M8.0 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS.

0500 PM SNOW 3 W WATTON 46.53N 88.66W
11/06/2007 M7.8 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS.


&&

$$

TG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091629
SWODY1
SPC AC 091626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET WILL DIG SEWD
OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
SAT MORNING. UPPER COOLING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM WI SEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AND WILL
MAINTAIN LESS THAN 10% PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.

UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD INTO TX/LA. SOME DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER SE TX AND WRN
LA...HOWEVER...RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AS WELL AS POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION/THUNDER.

ELSEWHERE...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EWD INTO CNTRL CA TODAY
BUT LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF THUNDER.

.JEWELL.. 11/09/2007

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KDLH [091545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091545
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
945 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 1 S WEBSTER 45.86N 92.36W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 8 S HAYWARD 45.89N 91.48W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
11/09/2007 M1.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0900 AM SNOW COZY CORNER 46.16N 92.24W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

KMD

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KSEW [091523]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 091523
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
723 AM PST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0403 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE BELLINGHAM 48.80N 122.37W
11/09/2007 M74 MPH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CERNIGLIA

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KDLH [091520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091520
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
920 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW YELLOWLAKE 45.94N 92.38W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KDONOFRI

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KDLH [091517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091517
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
915 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM SNOW 15 N GRAND RAPIDS 47.45N 93.52W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM SNOW COOK 47.85N 92.69W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM SNOW TWIG 46.89N 92.36W
11/09/2007 M0.9 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
11/09/2007 M1.3 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 3 NE NISSWA 46.53N 94.25W
11/09/2007 M0.5 INCH CROW WING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 AM SNOW LITTLEFORK 48.40N 93.56W
11/09/2007 M1.2 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 AM SNOW 5 S HERBSTER 46.76N 91.26W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW MAPLE 46.59N 91.72W
11/09/2007 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW WRENSHALL 46.62N 92.38W
11/09/2007 M1.0 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.46W
11/09/2007 M0.4 INCH AITKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW TOWER 47.81N 92.29W
11/09/2007 E1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 3 SE ORR 48.03N 92.77W
11/09/2007 E0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 3 WSW HINCKLEY 46.00N 93.00W
11/09/2007 M0.3 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

KDONOFRI

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KDLH [091452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091452
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
851 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM SNOW RANIER 48.61N 93.35W
11/09/2007 M1.3 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

KDONOFRI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091301
SWODY1
SPC AC 091259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM ERN TROUGH ARE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND SEPARATE TROUGHS MOVE INLAND
OVER THE PAC NW AND CA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS. ANY THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...WHERE RELATIVELY COLD PROFILES AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO
MUCAPE VALUES OF 50-200 J/KG.

ELSEWHERE...A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWD
FROM THE EXTREME WRN GULF INTO E TX. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE MID 60S ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND THE LARGER SCALE
REGIME SUGGESTS LITTLE TO FOCUS THE INITIATION OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN A FEW SHALLOW /WARM RAIN PROCESS/ CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

.THOMPSON/LEVIT.. 11/09/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090946
SWOD48
SPC AC 090946

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

..UPR FLOW REGIME PREDICTABILITY BECOMES POOR NEXT WEEK...

..DISCUSSION...
UPR FLOW REGIME BECOMES UNPREDICTABLE BY NEXT WEEK WITH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE QUITE VARIED. SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS ARE...HOWEVER...
CLEARER AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH
THE NRN MEXICO/SWRN U.S. UPR WAVE. RECENT CP AIR MASS INTRUSION
OVER THE ENTIRE WRN GULF BASIN AND CONTINUED ELY FLOW EMANATING FROM
THE ERN STATES HIGH...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE. IN FACT...SOME MEMBERS OF
THE NCEP-GEFS SUGGEST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WELL OFFSHORE IN THE
WRN GULF WATERS IN THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD RELEGATE
MOST OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OFFSHORE. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...A MEDIUM RANGE SVR OTLK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.

.RACY.. 11/09/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090726
SWODY3
SPC AC 090724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND GRADUAL TROUGHINESS IN THE
WEST. THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE FLOW REGIME BEGINS TO DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPR
LOW...CURRENTLY APPROACHING CNTRL/SRN CA. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL INITIALLY DIG INTO NRN MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY...THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD FAR W TX BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SPEED MAX APPROACHES SRN CA.

MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES STREAM NEWD FROM THE SRN
PLATEAU REGION. A BROAD REGION OF SCT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN
THIS ZONE...BUT INCREASING CAP WILL PROHIBIT TSTM PROSPECTS SUNDAY
AFTN. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASING RISK FOR NOCTURNAL TSTMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING NRN MEXICO SYSTEM ACROSS WRN TX. ORGANIZED
SVR TSTMS ARE NOT LIKELY...HOWEVER...OWING TO ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXPECTED.

.RACY.. 11/09/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090555
SWODY2
SPC AC 090553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
SHIFTS INTO SERN CANADA AND NRN ATLANTIC BASIN. WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM AS A NRN PAC TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PAC COAST. MEANWHILE...A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SWRN STATES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

..MID-MS RVR VLY...
A MODEST SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT OWING TO BOTH LEE TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE HIGHER
PLAINS AND THE DEPARTING ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ERN STATES UPR JET.
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ALREADY OBSERVED IN PWAT LOOPS ACROSS THE WRN
GULF BASIN WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTN. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY INTO THE MID-MS RVR VLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
EXIST. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM SRN IA...NRN MO EWD INTO WCNTRL IL. SVR WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY
GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

..UPR TX COAST NWD INTO WRN LA AND SRN AR...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WRN-SIDE OF THE ERN CONUS
ANTICYCLONE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM
LAYER WILL EXIST IN THE H6-H4 LAYER THAT MAY PROHIBIT STRONGER
UPDRAFTS NEEDED FOR CHARGE-SEPARATION. THUS...A GENERAL TSTM OTLK
IS NOT WARRANTED.

.RACY.. 11/09/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090523
SWODY1
SPC AC 090521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST THU NOV 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD AS
STRONG NWLY JET ALOFT DIGS SEWD INTO BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES AND DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION...WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND MT FLATTENING THE NWRN UPPER RIDGE. A SECOND PACIFIC
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WA COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHILE LOWER LATITUDE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST MOVES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD SRN CA.

..PACIFIC NW COAST...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEST OF THE
WA COAST.

..EAST TX/WRN LA AREA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN TX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NEWD TODAY AS WEAK SLY/SSWLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WILL PERMIT AREAS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. NAM APPEARS TO OVER PREDICT MAGNITUDE OF
MUCAPE AS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILE IS MODIFIED BY VERY ACTIVE BMJ
SHALLOW CONVECTION PROCESSES...AND MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY
FORECASTS FROM GFS AND SREF ETA-KF MEMBERS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

.WEISS.. 11/09/2007

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