DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010019
SWODY1
SPC AC 010016

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE
THROUGH AR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. STRONGER LIFT IS SHIFTING SE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
TOWARD MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD
REMAIN SPORADIC AND ISOLATED.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATELY STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH
COVERAGE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10%.

..DIAL.. 11/01/2008

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 923

WWUS20 KWNS 312246
SEL3
SPC WW 312246
ARZ000-OKZ000-010200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
546 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 923 ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
OKLAHOMA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2345

ACUS11 KWNS 312226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312226
ARZ000-OKZ000-312330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 923...

VALID 312226Z - 312330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 923
CONTINUES.

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING IF SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS SFC TEMPS COOL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE OZARKS. THE RUC SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUITE FOCUSED AND MOVING SEWD OVER A MOIST AXIS
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM SE OK INTO SCNTRL MO. THIS IS SUPPORTING
WEAKLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CNTRL AND NRN OK ATTM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN WCNTRL AR EARLY THIS EVENING SUGGEST THE CAPPING
INVERSION WILL WEAKEN AND SFC-BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS APPEARS LESS LIKELY. MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE TULSA AND TEXARKANA PROFILERS AND 500
MB TEMPS AROUND -16C WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL IF SFC-BASED STORMS
CAN INITIATE.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34149266 34169303 34249309 34289323 34339336 34379425
34219424 34219447 34529445 34519491 34689489 34699503
34829504 34989491 35229490 35229481 35389479 35399466
35299463 35339445 35479434 35379425 35389412 35479401
35579407 35699400 35799385 35729332 35719264 35819265
35799239 35709241 35709221 35379224 35389245 35169252
34969260 34919273 34919273 34839270 34809261 34699257
34619235 34569222 34489222 34509235 34459241 34459259
34409265 34149266

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KSGF [312049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 312049 CCA
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM LIGHTNING BUFFALO 37.64N 93.09W
10/31/2008 DALLAS MO BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 18 INJ *** LIGHTNING STRUCK A TREE ON THE BUFFALO
HIGH SCHOOL GROUNDS. THE LIGHTNING TRAVELLED THROUGH THE
TREE AND INTO THE THE SURROUNDING GROUND...AFFECTING 18
STUDENTS WALKING BETWEEN CLASSROOMS. ONE STUDENT WAS
TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL...THREE OTHER STUDENTS WENT
TO THE HOSPITAL AS A PRECAUTION. THE OTHER 14 STUDENTS
RECEIVED MINOR INJURIES...SCRAPES AND CUTS FROM FALLING
AND DID NOT REQUIRE MEDICAL ATTENTION.

&&

CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT AND UPDATED NUMBER OF INJURED

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 311958
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1022 AM HAIL PLEASANT HOPE 37.46N 93.27W
10/31/2008 M0.25 INCH POLK MO CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA HAIL ONGOING AT THIS TIME

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 311957
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM HAIL REPUBLIC 37.12N 93.48W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

$$

GAGAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311955
SWODY1
SPC AC 311952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AR/FAR EASTERN OK...

...AR/EASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A COLD UPPER LOW /AROUND -18C AT 500
MB/ DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN AR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
CHANUTE KS WITH ATTENDANT WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW/VORT MAX...A NORTHWEST-SOUTHWEST BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED
TSTMS CONTINUES AT MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AR.

ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THESE EARLY DAY
TSTMS...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS /THROUGH EARLY EVENING/ IN A RELATIVELY CONFINED CORRIDOR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AR/FAR EASTERN OK. IN SPITE OF A WARM
LAYER AROUND 850 MB PER REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AND MORE RECENT
ACARS DATA FROM THE TULSA AREA...AMPLE HEATING /MID TO UPPER 70S F/
AND WEAK CINH SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS WESTERN AR/FAR EASTERN OK. EVEN
WITH MODEST BUOYANCY /SBCAPES GENERALLY 500-1000 J PER
KG/...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED BUT RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED
HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS...WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD STEADILY WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

..GUYER.. 10/31/2008

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 923

WWUS20 KWNS 311935
SEL3
SPC WW 311935
ARZ000-OKZ000-010200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...HEATING HAD REMOVED MUCH OF CINH WRN AR/ERN OK WITH
MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG THIS AREA. WITH SMALL UPPER LOW DROPPING SSEWD
FROM SWRN MO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WATCH. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

...HALES

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KSGF [311803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311803
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0102 PM HAIL 3 E BRANSON 36.64N 93.16W
10/31/2008 E0.50 INCH TANEY MO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GAGAN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311728
SWODY2
SPC AC 311726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
CONUS. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES. A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE A
CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST. IN THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY CLOSED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...CA...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EAST-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MOVING INLAND ACROSS CA...STRONG FORCING AND
COOLING PROFILES ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE CA COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

...NORTHEAST TX/ADJACENT ARKLATEX...
ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH...MODEST CONVERGENCE AND
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE MAY DIURNALLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND/OR THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX
VICINITY. ALTHOUGH...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE WAKE
OF A VORT MAX ADVANCING SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. TSTM POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX IS MOST FAVORABLY REFLECTED IN THE 09Z ETAKF
SREF MEMBERS...WHILE DETERMINISTIC 12Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE LIMITED WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...MARGINAL
POTENTIAL/CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WILL PRELUDE ANY LOW-END TSTM
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...MIDWEST...
OTHER ISOLATED LATE PERIOD TSTMS /AFTER 06Z/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG/NORTH OF A RETURNING WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER...OVERALL TSTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR MEAGER AT THIS
TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/31/2008

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KSGF [311716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311716
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM HAIL BRANSON 36.64N 93.22W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH TANEY MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311709
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM HAIL BRANSON 36.64N 93.22W
10/31/2008 E0.25 INCH TANEY MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311707
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 PM LIGHTNING BUFFALO 37.64N 93.09W
10/31/2008 DALLAS MO TELEVISION STATI

*** 14 INJ *** LIGHTNING STRUCK A TREE ON THE BUFFALO
HIGH SCHOOL GROUNDS. THE LIGHTNING TRAVELLED THROUGH THE
TREE AND INTO THE THE SURROUNDING GROUND...AFFECTING 14
STUDENTS WALKING BETWEEN CLASSROOMS. A TREE LIMB STRUCK
ONE STUDENT AND HAS SINCE BEEN TRANSPORTED TO THE
HOSPITAL. THE OTHER 13 STUDENTS RECEIVED MINOR INJURIES.

&&

$$

GAGAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2344

ACUS11 KWNS 311703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311702
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-311830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK/NWRN AR/SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311702Z - 311830Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MODESTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THIS REGION...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ATTM...WITHIN THE SERN QUADRANT OF A
COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SWD ALONG THE SERN KS/SWRN MO BORDER.
WHILE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS NIL ATTM...ELEVATED CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS...WITH
A FEW REPORTS OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S OVER PARTS OF E CENTRAL OK AND ADJACENT WRN AR...ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON HEATING -- PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
-- COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. GIVEN THIS...AND WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS COULD EVOLVE WITH
LOCALLY-SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
HAIL...INCREASED STORM COVERAGE -- AND THUS A MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL
THREAT -- COULD EVENTUALLY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..GOSS.. 10/31/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 37459283 37449227 36749212 35949213 35249281 34729399
34739557 35109608 35759598 36349523 36929435 37459283

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KTSA [311657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 311657
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1157 AM HAIL HUNTSVILLE 36.09N 93.74W
10/31/2008 E1.00 INCH MADISON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

RBD

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KSGF [311652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311652
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1131 AM HAIL 2 SSW NIXA 37.02N 93.31W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH CHRISTIAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KTSA [311652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 311652
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1136 AM HAIL 5 S HINDSVILLE 36.07N 93.86W
10/31/2008 E1.00 INCH MADISON AR PUBLIC

&&

$$

PBS

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KSGF [311641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311641
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1111 AM HAIL 3 ENE KIMBERLING CITY 36.65N 93.37W
10/31/2008 M1.00 INCH STONE MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311639
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1128 AM HAIL REEDS SPRING 36.75N 93.38W
10/31/2008 E1.00 INCH STONE MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311618
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1118 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM HAIL 3 W GALENA 36.81N 93.52W
10/31/2008 E1.00 INCH STONE MO EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

KARDELL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311601
SWODY1
SPC AC 311558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OZARKS/ERN PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
UPPER LOW HAS CLOSED OFF S OF MKC THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SSEWD INTO CENTRAL AR BY THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL MS 12Z SAT.
COMBINATION OF ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WAS SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG CONVECTION THIS AM ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SERN KS TO CENTRAL OK WILL MOVE SEWD AHEAD OF
UPPER SYSTEM AND PROVIDE A FOCUS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON POTENTIAL OF
SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION. PRONOUNCED VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
WRN QUAD OF UPPER LOW RESULTS IN 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE
ONLY LIMITATION OF AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IS THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MLCAPES GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. WHILE HAIL
WILL STILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG UPDRAFT GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND COLD AIR ALOFT THRU THIS EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITED THREAT. HOWEVER WILL CONSIDER AN
UPGRADE THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONGER HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP THAN NOW EXPECTED.

..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 10/31/2008

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KSGF [311557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311557
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1056 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1047 AM HAIL 2 N SPRINGFIELD 37.22N 93.28W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311554
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 AM HAIL SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311550
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1050 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM HAIL SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
10/31/2008 M0.25 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311550
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1050 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1049 AM HAIL REPUBLIC 37.12N 93.48W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311543
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM HAIL 3 W SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.34W
10/31/2008 M0.50 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311541
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1041 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM HAIL HUMANSVILLE 37.79N 93.58W
10/31/2008 E0.88 INCH POLK MO BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311541
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1041 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM HAIL 3 NE REPUBLIC 37.15N 93.44W
10/31/2008 E0.75 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311538
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM HAIL CAPE FAIR 36.73N 93.51W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH STONE MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311536
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1036 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1028 AM HAIL 6 NNE WILLARD 37.39N 93.39W
10/31/2008 M0.50 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311526
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1026 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1021 AM HAIL PLEASANT HOPE 37.46N 93.27W
10/31/2008 M0.25 INCH POLK MO CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA HAIL ONGOING AT THIS TIME

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311522
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1022 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1021 AM HAIL REPUBLIC 37.12N 93.48W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311458
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
958 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM HAIL BOLIVAR 37.61N 93.41W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH POLK MO AMATEUR RADIO

PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

GAGAN

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KSGF [311452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311452
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 AM HAIL HERMITAGE 37.94N 93.32W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH HICKORY MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KSGF [311441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311441
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
941 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM HAIL BOLIVAR 37.61N 93.41W
10/31/2008 E0.70 INCH POLK MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KTSA [311423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 311423
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM HAIL ROGERS 36.33N 94.12W
10/31/2008 E0.75 INCH BENTON AR PUBLIC

&&

$$

MAT

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KTSA [311422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 311422
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM HAIL 3 W HINDSVILLE 36.14N 93.92W
10/31/2008 E0.75 INCH MADISON AR PUBLIC

PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

MAT

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KEAX [311413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 311413
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
912 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 AM HAIL 6 E MONTROSE 38.26N 93.87W
10/31/2008 E0.75 INCH HENRY MO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CUTTER

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KSGF [311404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 311404
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
904 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 AM HAIL COLLINS 37.89N 93.62W
10/31/2008 E0.50 INCH ST. CLAIR MO EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA SIZE TO HALF AN INCH

&&

$$

KARDELL

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KTSA [311337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 311337
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
837 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM HAIL SPRINGDALE 36.19N 94.13W
10/31/2008 E0.75 INCH WASHINGTON AR AMATEUR RADIO

PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF HIGHWAYS 264 EAST AND 71B IN SPRINGDALE.

&&

$$

MAT

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KTSA [311302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 311302
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
802 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HAIL 3 N BENTONVILLE 36.42N 94.21W
10/31/2008 E0.88 INCH BENTON AR STORM CHASER

HAIL COVERED ROADWAY AT JUNCTION OF I 540 AND HWY 71.

&&

$$

PBS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311249
SWODY1
SPC AC 311246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPR VORT NOW OVER ERN KS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY SSE INTO
NW AR BY LATE TODAY AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE HI PLNS. THE KS/AR
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE SSE INTO LA EARLY SATURDAY AS LARGER SCALE E
PACIFIC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO THE W CST.

AT LWR LEVELS...SFC RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM E TX TO THE S ATLANTIC
CST...MINIMIZING MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS.

...OZARKS/ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF KS UPR VORT...
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT REGENERATIVE BANDS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION/TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVE. THE CENTROID OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY S FROM MO INTO NRN/WRN AR BY EVE. THE 12Z SGF
RAOB SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE UP TO
1000 J PER KG/ MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME
STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS LATER TODAY...
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS
IN NE OK/NW AR THAT...MAINLY THROUGH EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES...COULD
YIELD A STRONG GUST OR TWO. ON THE WHOLE...HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER E PACIFIC SYSTEM AND
NOW MOVING NE ACROSS NRN CA SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO NRN ID BY EVE.
LAPSE RATES WITHIN ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROUGH MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF GREATER SFC
HEATING. SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE AND STORM COVERAGE.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/31/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310849
SWOD48
SPC AC 310848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...PREDICTABILITY IS STILL TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A SEVERE
THREAT AREA...

LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
...WHEN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SIGNAL EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AS STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
PROCEEDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A
SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES
MORE LIKELY. THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY. BUT...THIS
IS COINCIDENT WITH RAPIDLY GROWING SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS
CONCERNING THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

..KERR.. 10/31/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC BELT
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN...BEFORE SPLITTING INTO A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW...BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ...BUT A SIGNIFICANT
EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC POLAR
JET IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MID-LEVEL COOLING
ALONG/AHEAD OF A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE. COUPLED
WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR A 50+ KT 500 MB JET
STREAK...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MUCH BEYOND A HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE STORM
OR TWO.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
THE LINGERING LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN A STABILIZING INFLUENCE SUNDAY...MINIMIZING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PRECLUDING A
STRONG RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

..KERR.. 10/31/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310525
SWODY2
SPC AC 310522

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS THROUGH A MID/HIGH LEVEL POLAR JET...ARCING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...TODAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS PROGGED TO MAINTAIN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. DOWNSTREAM...THE POLAR
WESTERLIES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN SPLIT EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A LARGE-SCALE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
VIGOROUS IMPULSE WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO
DIG ACROSS THE GULF COAST...BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...SURFACE RIDGING...
INITIALLY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT 12Z SATURDAY... IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT...ANOTHER COLD SURFACE
HIGH...MIGRATING SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AND...SURFACE FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN A LARGELY OFFSHORE COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. SREF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS COULD SUPPORT WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL MINIMIZE THE RISK...WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.S. EVEN MORE NEGLIGIBLE.

...WEST OF THE ROCKIES...
STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST AT 12Z SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL PIVOT INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE FEATURE...ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SATURDAY EVENING. AS AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BAND ADVANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SACRAMENTO/SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEYS...COOLING/DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE
INITIALLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES.
THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 10/31/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310439
SWODY1
SPC AC 310436

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

OWING TO EXTENTION OF SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE WRN
GULF...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH 50S F
DEWPOINTS OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COMPACT SEWD
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SPREAD OVER A PORTION OF THE MOIST
AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO
800 J/KG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM PARTS
OF SERN KS...NERN OK INTO WRN MO. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -19C AT
700 MB COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS. LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10%.

..DIAL/JEWELL.. 10/31/2008

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