SWODY1
SPC AC 311952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AR/FAR EASTERN OK...
...AR/EASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A COLD UPPER LOW /AROUND -18C AT 500
MB/ DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN AR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
CHANUTE KS WITH ATTENDANT WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW/VORT MAX...A NORTHWEST-SOUTHWEST BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED
TSTMS CONTINUES AT MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AR.
ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THESE EARLY DAY
TSTMS...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS /THROUGH EARLY EVENING/ IN A RELATIVELY CONFINED CORRIDOR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AR/FAR EASTERN OK. IN SPITE OF A WARM
LAYER AROUND 850 MB PER REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AND MORE RECENT
ACARS DATA FROM THE TULSA AREA...AMPLE HEATING /MID TO UPPER 70S F/
AND WEAK CINH SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS WESTERN AR/FAR EASTERN OK. EVEN
WITH MODEST BUOYANCY /SBCAPES GENERALLY 500-1000 J PER
KG/...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED BUT RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED
HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS...WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD STEADILY WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
..GUYER.. 10/31/2008
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