MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0145

ACUS11 KWNS 260420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260420
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-261015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND/NRN AND CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 260420Z - 261015Z

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH RATES EXPECTED TO REACH
2"/HR. LOCALLY.

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT NOW
SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS NERN WY...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING ASCENT
IMPLIED INTO WRN SD AND VICINITY AS CLOUD TOPS COOL IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS FEATURE.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD SWD EVIDENT BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER RED RIVER VALLEY...WHILE ABOVE THE
COLD LAYER A LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE -- WITH GLD VWP NOW
SHOWING 55-60 KT SLY FLOW AT H85. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG ASCENT
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDED BY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
AT UPPER LEVELS WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THIS REGION EARLY THIS
AM...EXPECT SNOWFALL COVERAGE TO EXPAND AND SNOW RATES TO INCREASE.
RATES EXCEEDING 1" PER HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA AND WILL LIKELY REACH 2"/HR. LOCALLY IN A ZONE LIKELY CENTERED
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY AT TIMES BE
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED -- MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EWD WITH
TIME...ENDING FROM W-E ACROSS NWRN SD AND SHIFTING INTO NERN SD/SERN
ND THROUGH SUNRISE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FEATURE.

..GOSS/SMITH.. 02/26/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 43950268 44100335 44460400 45200430 45620390 46760199
47149941 47049691 46839613 46249554 45639558 44959603
44299720 43949904 43900125 43950268

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KSEW [260358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 260358
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
758 PM PST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM SNOW 5 WNW CLALLAM BAY 48.28N 124.37W
02/25/2009 M1.0 INCH CLALLAM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION AT SEA LEVEL

0705 PM SNOW 2 ENE BELLINGHAM 48.76N 122.43W
02/25/2009 E2.0 INCH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION 500 FEET.

0756 PM SNOW 1 NNW FERNDALE 48.87N 122.60W
02/25/2009 E8.5 INCH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION 500 FEET. STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

KC

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KSEW [260304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 260304
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
704 PM PST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM SNOW 3 SW BELLINGHAM 48.71N 122.51W
02/25/2009 M2.0 INCH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION 180 FEET.

0658 PM SNOW 4 E MOUNT VERNON 48.42N 122.22W
02/25/2009 M2.0 INCH SKAGIT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES FELL IN JUST OVER AN HOUR.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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KREV [260210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 260210
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
610 PM PST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARSON CITY 39.17N 119.76W
02/25/2009 CARSON CITY NV TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY 12 CARS DAMAGED BY FLYING DEBRIS FROM
POSSIBLE DUST DEVIL IN CARSON CITY DMV PARKING LOT.

&&

$$

MFAUCETT

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KSEW [260203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 260203
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
603 PM PST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM SNOW 2 WNW ANACORTES 48.50N 122.66W
02/25/2009 M1.5 INCH SKAGIT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

35 DEGREES. SNOW HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST HOUR IN HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS.

0520 PM SNOW 1 NNW FERNDALE 48.87N 122.60W
02/25/2009 M6.0 INCH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

2 ADDITIONAL INCHES SINCE LAST REPORT FOR A TOTAL OF 6
AND A QUARTER. SPOTTERS ELEVATION IS 500 FEET.

0602 PM SNOW 1 S NEPTUNE BEACH 48.80N 122.71W
02/25/2009 M4.0 INCH PZZ133 WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IS AT SEA-LEVEL. 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND AT HIS
HOUSE...NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. HIS WIFE IS ON
INTERSTATE-5 NORTH OF BELLINGHAM...REPORTING VERY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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KRIW [260153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 260153
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
653 PM MST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW RIVERTON 43.09N 108.49W
02/25/2009 M58 MPH FREMONT WY ASOS

&&

$$

AR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260101
SWODY1
SPC AC 260058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE/NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WA/ORE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING WY EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI
VALLEY.

...WY/NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WY INTO SOUTHERN SD/FAR NORTHERN NEB THIS EVENING IN CONCERT WITH
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATER TONIGHT
/MAINLY AFTER 06Z/...THE PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE OZARKS/MISSOURI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IA. A MODEST /25-35 KT/ SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/TSTM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF A
CONSOLIDATING/NORTHWARD SHIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER TSTMS GIVEN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 02/26/2009

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KMFR [260040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 260040
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
440 PM PST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0439 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SCOTTSBURG 43.67N 123.81W
02/25/2009 M1.96 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT NOON WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KSEW [260028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 260028
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
427 PM PST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW SUMAS 48.98N 122.26W
02/25/2009 E2.0 INCH WHATCOM WA PUBLIC

0400 PM SNOW MAPLE FALLS 48.92N 122.08W
02/25/2009 M3.0 INCH WHATCOM WA PUBLIC

CO-OP OBSERVER IN MAPLE FALLS.

0400 PM SNOW LYNDEN 48.95N 122.46W
02/25/2009 E4.0 INCH WHATCOM WA PUBLIC

CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. KOMO NEWS
HAS 3 SEPERATE REPORTS OF 3 INCHES IN LYNDEN.

0427 PM SNOW 1 NNW FERNDALE 48.87N 122.60W
02/25/2009 M4.0 INCH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

29 DEGREES. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ALL DAY AND IS STICKING
TO ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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KTFX [252240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 252240
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 PM MST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM HEAVY SNOW EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.22W
02/25/2009 E12.0 INCH GLACIER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOWFALL SINCE 7 PM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24

0131 PM HEAVY SNOW 25 WNW BABB 49.00N 113.95W
02/25/2009 E6.0 INCH XXX XX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT FEBRUARY 24 THROUGH TIME
OF REPORT

&&

$$

SAUCIER

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KMFR [252121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 252121
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
121 PM PST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
02/25/2009 M1.09 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 9 PM TO 9 AM

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251938
SWODY1
SPC AC 251935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS
VALLEY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA AND NV AS OF 19Z WILL
PROGRESS EWD WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL AIRSTREAM INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
BY THU MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NOW DEVELOPING
OVER ID WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD ALONG
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE
CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THE COMBINATION OF
TERRAIN EFFECTS AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSES SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN NV/SRN ID EWD INTO WY.

TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH EML PLUME ADVECTING
EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION ALONG/N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE MID INTO
LOWER MO VALLEY. DCVA IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM
THE CNTRL ROCKIES COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS /PRIMARILY AFTER
26/03Z/ WITHIN THIS ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 02/25/2009

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KMSO [251711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 251711
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1010 AM MST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 NW TAFT 47.46N 115.66W
02/25/2009 E12.0 INCH SHOSHONE ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

OBSERVATION IS FOR LOOKOUT PASS. 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
REPORTED BY MONTANA DOT BETWEEN 6AM 2/24 AND 3PM 2/24.
SNOTEL IN AREA ESTIMATES AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES FROM 3PM
2/24 THROUGH 9AM 2/24, MAKING THE STORM TOTAL 12 INCHES.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 SW LOLO HOT SPRINGS 46.67N 114.62W
02/25/2009 M24.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVATION IS FOR LOLO PASS. 24 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS
REPORTED BETWEEN 6AM 2/24 AND 9AM 2/25.

&&

$$

VIA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251706
SWODY2
SPC AC 251703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO
MID-SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY PHASE WITH MORE
INTENSE HIGHER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND POLAR
VORTEX ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE
DEVELOPING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY
THU AFTERNOON...AND SWRN ONTARIO BY FRI MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS WHILE PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...MIDWEST INTO MID-SOUTH...

INTENSIFYING LLJ WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE NWD/NEWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID
MS VALLEYS...TO LOWER 60S OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY.
AN EML ORIGINATING OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BE ADVECTED EWD ATOP
THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...ESTABLISHING A CAP ACROSS SYSTEM
WARM SECTOR. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE EML...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES CENTERED AROUND 700 MB
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE
VALUES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 1000 J/KG.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EITHER BE ONGOING OR FORM EARLY IN
THE PERIOD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF IL/IND...DRIVEN
LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS NEAR AND N OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MORE ROBUST...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER MO AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE IS AUGMENTED BY MESOSCALE ASCENT
ALONG DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD FRONT.

ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /I.E. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE WINDS/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH 45-55 KT WSWLY FLOW IN THE
MIDLEVELS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THU NIGHT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AS SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.

..MEAD.. 02/25/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251622
SWODY1
SPC AC 251618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE A NRN STREAM LOW NEAR THE WA
COAST...AND A SRN STREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE FROM NRN CA TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES...MID LEVEL MOISTENING...AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD
BREAKS WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NRN UT INTO WY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NRN CA TROUGH.

MEANWHILE...THE NRN CA TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN NWD TRANSPORT OF THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NW
GULF/E TX. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IN TX AND A STRONG
RESULTANT CAP. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER
TONIGHT /03-12Z/ AS THE SRN STREAM TROUGH EMERGES OVER NEB/SD WHERE
DCVA AND WAA WILL COMBINE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE PROFILES...AND
ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP AND THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ FROM
TX/OK INTO MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/WAA WILL BE FOCUSED. THE
THREAT FOR HAIL WITH STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MO AREA
SHOULD REMAIN SMALL BASED ON UNCERTAINTIES IN CAP STRENGTH AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

..THOMPSON.. 02/25/2009

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KBIS [251615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 251615
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1015 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW BOWMAN 46.18N 103.39W
02/25/2009 M1.9 INCH BOWMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS 1.9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

LLP

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KDLH [251600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 251600
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1000 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
02/25/2009 M1.4 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0600 AM SNOW 3 E ORR 48.06N 92.76W
02/25/2009 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
02/25/2009 M1.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM SNOW MADELINE ISLAND 46.81N 90.69W
02/25/2009 M1.4 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM SNOW EMBARRASS 47.66N 92.20W
02/25/2009 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW NORTHOME 47.87N 94.27W
02/25/2009 M0.7 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 4 W WASHBURN 46.67N 90.98W
02/25/2009 M1.8 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW SILVER BAY 47.29N 91.28W
02/25/2009 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 3 NNE FINLAND 47.45N 91.22W
02/25/2009 M0.9 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 10 NW GUNFLINT LAKE 48.20N 90.85W
02/25/2009 M1.5 INCH COOK MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
02/25/2009 M1.8 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 5 S HERBSTER 46.76N 91.26W
02/25/2009 M0.8 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN BENEATH THE SNOW.

0800 AM SNOW LITTLEFORK 48.40N 93.56W
02/25/2009 M1.1 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250546
SWODY2
SPC AC 250544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND MIDWEST...

...MID-SOUTH AND MIDWEST...
MID-LVL DISTURBANCE APCHG THE PAC NW/NRN CA CST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/MS VLY ON THU AS
IT PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE
QUICKLY EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY BY 12Z FRI. ASSOCD SFC
LOW OVER THE MO VLY EARLY THU WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND
INTO NRN IND/SRN LWR MI BY LATE THU NIGHT. TRAILING THE LOW...A
CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE PLNS AND INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-SOUTH
BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NWD FROM THE SRN
PLNS INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. BY THU AFTN...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S IN IND/IL TO NEAR 60 DEG F IN
THE MID-SOUTH. A FAIRLY STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY
RESIDE WELL EAST INTO THE OH/TN VLYS ATOP THIS MSTR...SUGGESTING
THAT SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED UNTIL
MID-LATE AFTN WHEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES. FIRST
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG
THE FRONTAL INTERFACE...THEN QUICKLY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
STORMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD INTO PARTS OF MO/AR DURING THE
EVE INTO STRONGER CINH. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...45-50
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LINEAR FORCING WILL FAVOR A
FORCED LINE OF STORMS WITH POSSIBLE LEWPS/BOWS GIVING DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.

NRN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ACROSS IND/OH AS
STORMS OUTRUN THE STRONGER LLVL THETA-E AXIS THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...
TSTMS MAY MAINTAIN/GROW STRONGER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SKIRT THE MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY.

..RACY.. 02/25/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250530
SWODY1
SPC AC 250528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY...

WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL U.S WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HR AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH TIME MODIFIED MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL
RETURN NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ERN TX...EVENTUALLY SURGING
LATE INTO ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF SERN KS/SWRN MO/AR WHERE SFC DEW
POINTS MAY RISE INTO THE 50S. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH
OF RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ FROM NRN AR/MO INTO
SERN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER DELAYED MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FAVORED ZONE
OF ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND HAIL THREAT WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AHEAD OF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT.

...NRN ROCKIES...

VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SAG SEWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH. ANY
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD AID
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE/WEAK BUOYANCY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE NOTED PRIMARILY DURING THE WARMER PORTIONS OF
THE DAY.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2009

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KMFR [250502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 250502
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
02/24/2009 M1.16 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR REPORT ENDING 9PM PREVIOUS 24HRS 1.01 INCHES
FELL.

&&

$$

OBRIEN

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