SWODY1
SPC AC 260058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST WED FEB 25 2009
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE/NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WA/ORE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING WY EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI
VALLEY.
...WY/NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WY INTO SOUTHERN SD/FAR NORTHERN NEB THIS EVENING IN CONCERT WITH
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATER TONIGHT
/MAINLY AFTER 06Z/...THE PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE OZARKS/MISSOURI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IA. A MODEST /25-35 KT/ SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/TSTM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF A
CONSOLIDATING/NORTHWARD SHIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER TSTMS GIVEN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..GUYER.. 02/26/2009
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