KBMX [230314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 230314
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM FLASH FLOOD VANDIVER 33.47N 86.51W
09/22/2011 SHELBY AL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF FLOWING WATER UP TO 2 FEET DEEP IN
VANDIVER AREA NEAR COUNTY ROAD 43.

&&

$$

88

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KMRX [230136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 230136
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW CHARLESTON 35.26N 84.83W
09/22/2011 BRADLEY TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

DISPATCH REPORTED TREES DOWN AT 3187 CANDIES CREEK RIDGE
ROAD...MCPHERSON ROAD...8011 EUREKA ROAD NORTHWEST...AND
MOORE CIRCLE ROAD NORTHWEST.

&&

$$

JWINTON

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KSGX [230135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 230135
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
635 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM TSTM WND DMG RANCHO CUCAMONGA 34.12N 117.57W
09/22/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

AT 402 PM, THE CHP PAGE IS REPORTING THAT A TRUCK WITH A
CAMPING TRAILER ROLLED OVER. THE CHP IS REPORTING THAT
THE WINDS CAUSED THE ACCIDENT.

&&

$$

CPALMER

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KJAN [230101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 230101
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N EUDORA 33.21N 91.26W
09/22/2011 M50.00 MPH CHICOT AR MESONET

MEASURED AT ARKANSAS PLANT BOARD MESONET SITE

&&

$$

DL

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KFFC [230100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KFFC 230100
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
900 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE PEACHTREE CITY 33.41N 84.57W
09/22/2011 FAYETTE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE DEPUTY EMA DIRECTOR FOR FAYETTE COUNTY INDICATED
PORTIONS OF THE TINSLEY MILL VILLAGE WERE FLOODED DUE TO
CHERRY BRANCH COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS. THE FLOOD WATERS
HAVE SURROUNDED TWO CONDOMINIUMS...BUT HAVE LEVELED OFF
AND ARE HOLDING STEADY. SO FAR THE FLOOD WATER HAS NOT
ENTERED THE HOMES AND NO EVACUATIONS HAVE OCCURRED.

0515 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE PEACHTREE CITY 33.38N 84.53W
09/22/2011 FAYETTE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

A DETENTION POND OVERFLOWED OFF OF CROSSTOWN ROAD AND
CAUSED A BASEMENT TO FLOOD IN A HOME ON PRESTWICK LANE
WITH 2 TO 3 FEET OF WATER.

0530 PM LIGHTNING 4 NW SHARPSBURG 33.38N 84.70W
09/22/2011 COWETA GA EMERGENCY MNGR

A LIGHTNING STRIKE CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT FIRE IN THE ATTIC
OF A HOME ON SANDRA LANE. DAMAGE WAS SEVERE ENOUGH TO
EVACUATE THE FAMILY FOR THE NIGHT.

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE PEACHTREE CITY 33.39N 84.55W
09/22/2011 FAYETTE GA NWS EMPLOYEE

A POND AT THE LUTHER GLASS PARK OFF SOUTH PEACHTREE
PARKWAY OVERFLOWED AND HAS FLOODED PORTION OF THE GOLF
CART PATH WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF WATER. THE WATER LEVEL
WAS STILL RISING SLOWLY AND WILL LIKELY FLOOD MORE OF THE
GOLF CART PATH AND SURROUNDING AREA.

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N CUMMING 34.24N 84.14W
09/22/2011 FORSYTH GA EMERGENCY MNGR

FORYSTH COUNTY EMEGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORT OF A
TREE DOWNED ALONG BETTIS TRIBBLE GAP ROAD. POWER OUTAGES
WERE ALSO REPORTED IN THE SILVER CITY AREA.

0657 PM HAIL 3 SSW LUMPKIN 34.33N 84.06W
09/22/2011 E0.75 INCH FORSYTH GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FORSYTH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORTS FROM
LAW ENFORCEMENT OF PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL IN THE AREA OF
GEORGIA HIGHWAY 400 AND JOT EM DOWN ROAD.

0740 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NE FREE HOME 34.30N 84.24W
09/22/2011 FORSYTH GA EMERGENCY MNGR

FORSYTH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH DEBRIS IN THE WATER NEAR GEORGIA
HIGHWAY 369 IN THE HEARDSVILLE AREA.

0810 PM HEAVY RAIN SW LUMPKIN 34.36N 84.04W
09/22/2011 E0.00 INCH DAWSON GA 911 CALL CENTER

PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IN LUMPKIN CAMPGROUND.

&&

$$

RGARCIA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230053
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE/UPPER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST MID/UPPER CLOSED
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING AROUND ITS WESTERN/ SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY...FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRENGTHENING
OF WIND FIELDS...VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
RISK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 09/23/2011

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KSGX [230039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 230039
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
539 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM TSTM WND GST SAGE 33.58N 116.93W
09/22/2011 M51.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

AT 214 PM...THE SAGE RAWS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH
FROM THE SSW.

0255 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW SAGE 33.61N 116.96W
09/22/2011 M44.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A WIND GUST TO 44 MPH WENT THROUGH THE AREA JUST AFTER
230 PM. IT CAUSED SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

0316 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNE SAN JACINTO 33.82N 116.95W
09/22/2011 M45.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

HIGHLAND SPRINGS RAWS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH FROM
THE SSW.

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SAN BERNARDINO 34.14N 117.29W
09/22/2011 M33.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

AT 350 PM...THE SAN BERNARDINO CSU MESONET SITE REPORTED
A WIND GUST TO 33 MPH FROM THE EAST.

&&

$$

CPALMER

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KFFC [230021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 230021
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
821 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HEAVY RAIN SW LUMPKIN 34.36N 84.04W
09/22/2011 E0.00 INCH DAWSON GA 911 CALL CENTER

PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IN LUMPKIN CAMPGROUND.

&&

$$

TDP

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KBMX [230008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 230008
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 2 N GADSDEN 34.04N 86.01W
09/22/2011 E0.88 INCH ETOWAH AL BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

AG

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KFFC [230002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 230002
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
802 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 PM HAIL 3 SSW LUMPKIN 34.33N 84.06W
09/22/2011 E0.75 INCH FORSYTH GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FORSYTH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORTS FROM
LAW ENFORCEMENT OF PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL IN THE AREA OF
GEORGIA HIGHWAY 400 AND JOT EM DOWN ROAD.

&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KEWX [230000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 230000
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0659 PM HAIL DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
09/22/2011 E0.25 INCH VAL VERDE TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100317

$$

JPB

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KFFC [222357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 222357
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
757 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N CUMMING 34.24N 84.14W
09/22/2011 FORSYTH GA EMERGENCY MNGR

FORYSTH COUNTY EMEGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORT OF A
TREE DOWNED ALONG BETTIS TRIBBLE GAP ROAD. POWER OUTAGES
WERE ALSO REPORTED IN THE SILVER CITY AREA.

0740 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NE FREE HOME 34.30N 84.24W
09/22/2011 FORSYTH GA EMERGENCY MNGR

FORSYTH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH DEBRIS IN THE WATER NEAR GEORGIA
HIGHWAY 369 IN THE HEARDSVILLE AREA.

&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KEWX [222355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 222355
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 1 SE CARTA VALLEY 29.79N 100.67W
09/22/2011 E0.25 INCH EDWARDS TX CO-OP OBSERVER

BRIEF HAIL WITH 0.45 INCHES OF RAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100316

$$

JPB

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KEWX [222341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 222341
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM TSTM WND GST DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
09/22/2011 M57 MPH VAL VERDE TX ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100315

$$

JPB

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KSHV [222334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 222334
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM TSTM WND DMG SPEARSVILLE 32.94N 92.60W
09/22/2011 UNION LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

09

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KFFC [222307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 222307
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
707 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM LIGHTNING 4 NW SHARPSBURG 33.38N 84.70W
09/22/2011 COWETA GA EMERGENCY MNGR

A LIGHTNING STRIKE CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT FIRE IN THE ATTIC
OF A HOME ON SANDRA LANE. DAMAGE WAS SEVERE ENOUGH TO
EVACUATE THE FAMILY FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

$$

KFRANTZ

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KLIX [222254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 222254
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
554 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG DENHAM SPRINGS 30.48N 90.96W
09/22/2011 LIVINGSTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 190 BETWEEN JUBIN
ROAD AND EDIN CHURCH ROAD.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG DENHAM SPRINGS 30.48N 90.96W
09/22/2011 LIVINGSTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE WAS BLOWN DONW ON A HOUSE ON DABNEY STREET.

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG WALKER 30.48N 90.87W
09/22/2011 LIVINGSTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A HOUSE ON BURGESS AVENUE.

&&

$$

11

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KFFC [222248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 222248
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE PEACHTREE CITY 33.41N 84.57W
09/22/2011 FAYETTE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE DEPUTY EMA DIRECTOR FOR FAYETTE COUNTY INDICATED
PORTIONS OF THE TINSLEY MILL VILLAGE WERE FLOODED DUE TO
CHERRY BRANCH COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS. THE FLOOD WATERS
HAVE SURROUNDED TWO CONDOMINIUMS...BUT HAVE LEVELED OFF
AND ARE HOLDING STEADY. SO FAR THE FLOOD WATER HAS NOT
ENTERED THE HOMES AND NO EVACUATIONS HAVE OCCURRED.

0515 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE PEACHTREE CITY 33.38N 84.53W
09/22/2011 FAYETTE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

A DETENTION POND OVERFLOWED OFF OF CROSSTOWN ROAD AND
CAUSED A BASEMENT TO FLOOD IN A HOME ON PRESTWICK LANE
WITH 2 TO 3 FEET OF WATER.

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE PEACHTREE CITY 33.39N 84.55W
09/22/2011 FAYETTE GA NWS EMPLOYEE

A POND AT THE LUTHER GLASS PARK OFF SOUTH PEACHTREE
PARKWAY OVERFLOWED AND HAS FLOODED PORTION OF THE GOLF
CART PATH WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF WATER. THE WATER LEVEL
WAS STILL RISING SLOWLY AND WILL LIKELY FLOOD MORE OF THE
GOLF CART PATH AND SURROUNDING AREA.

&&

$$

KFRANTZ

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KLIX [222231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 222231
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
531 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 1 S DENHAM SPRINGS 30.47N 90.96W
09/22/2011 M1.75 INCH LIVINGSTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF DENHAM SPRINGS.

0510 PM HAIL WALKER 30.48N 90.87W
09/22/2011 M1.00 INCH LIVINGSTON LA PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS OBSERVED.

&&

$$

11

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KSHV [222127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 222127
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW MAGNOLIA 33.29N 93.26W
09/22/2011 COLUMBIA AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES BLOCKING HWY 82 WEST OF MAGNOLIA

&&

$$

24

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KSHV [222115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 222115
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
415 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N LEWISVILLE 33.44N 93.58W
09/22/2011 LAFAYETTE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN AND POWER OUT HWY 29 NORTH OF LEWISVILLE

&&

$$

24

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KMRX [222053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 222053
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
453 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG CHARLESTON 35.29N 84.76W
09/22/2011 BRADLEY TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE FELL ON A HOUSE. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

$$

DMG

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KJAX [221949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 221949
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM WATER SPOUT 15 SE MAYPORT 30.23N 81.23W
09/22/2011 AMZ452 FL OTHER FEDERAL

MAYPORT NAVAL OBSERVER REPORTED A WATER SPOUT 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT. WATER SPOUT DISSIPATED AT 336 PM
EDT.

&&

$$

MZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221945
SWODY1
SPC AC 221943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO TRIM THE THUNDER LINE SWD
ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS DRYING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

..BROYLES.. 09/22/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPR GRT LKS TROUGH/LOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP S INTO ERN WI
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED
FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE...WILL SETTLE SE INTO E TX/LA BY 12Z FRI. FARTHER
E...REMNANTS OF EXISTING POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE ERN
STATES...NOW REDUCED TO A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EXTENDING FROM THE
N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO TO NEW ENGLAND...WILL BECOME FURTHER ABSORBED
WITHIN DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE SW FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF GRT LKS TROUGH.

AT THE SFC...CDFNT WITH GRT LKS TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY SE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...AND
SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS NY AND THE CNTRL APLCNS.

...CNTRL/S TX TO LWR MS VLY TODAY...
SCTD...NON-SVR ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP
GENERALLY ESE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS LATER TODAY...TIED TO
WAA/JET ENTRANCE REGION ASCENT WITH TX PANHANDLE IMPULSE. FARTHER
S...SCTD SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS
THE BOUNDARY REACHES S CNTRL/SE TX AND NRN LA. IN ADDITION...OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SW
TX MTNS AND NEAR THE TX BIG BEND.

DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY RICH /PW AROUND 1 INCH/. BUT SFC HEATING
WILL BE STRONG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. THIS
SETUP MAY YIELD A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
SVR PULSE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS UPR DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TX PANHANDLE VORT. SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER DOES
NOT...HOWEVER...APPEAR LIKELY...AND THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET.

...ERN STATES...
BROAD...MOIST LOW-MID LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE E CST THROUGH FRI. CLOUDS AND SCTD CONVECTION/RAIN WILL TEMPER
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES...ONE NOW OVER GA
AND THE OTHER OVER PA...MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN WEAK CINH ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CNTRL-ERN NY/SWRN
NEW ENGLAND...RESPECTIVELY...LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. DEEP SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF LOW LVL
SHEAR WILL EXIST INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT IN WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND.
UNLESS POCKETS OF HEATING EVOLVE TO BOOST BUOYANCY...IT APPEARS THAT
SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE/LOW.

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KSHV [221921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 221921
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
220 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 10 SW NEW BOSTON 33.36N 94.54W
09/22/2011 E0.75 INCH BOWIE TX PUBLIC

PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC IN SIMMS RELAYED
BY LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

$$

MBERRY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221726
SWODY2
SPC AC 221725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN GA/CAROLINAS/SRN VA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOPING
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS.
AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE
DAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z
FRIDAY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WET DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW AT MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN SEABOARD...THE
THREAT SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL UPON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT
OCCURS.

..BROYLES.. 09/22/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221617
SWODY1
SPC AC 221615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPR GRT LKS TROUGH/LOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP S INTO ERN WI
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED
FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE...WILL SETTLE SE INTO E TX/LA BY 12Z FRI. FARTHER
E...REMNANTS OF EXISTING POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE ERN
STATES...NOW REDUCED TO A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EXTENDING FROM THE
N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO TO NEW ENGLAND...WILL BECOME FURTHER ABSORBED
WITHIN DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE SW FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF GRT LKS TROUGH.

AT THE SFC...CDFNT WITH GRT LKS TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY SE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...AND
SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS NY AND THE CNTRL APLCNS.

...CNTRL/S TX TO LWR MS VLY TODAY...
SCTD...NON-SVR ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP
GENERALLY ESE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS LATER TODAY...TIED TO
WAA/JET ENTRANCE REGION ASCENT WITH TX PANHANDLE IMPULSE. FARTHER
S...SCTD SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS
THE BOUNDARY REACHES S CNTRL/SE TX AND NRN LA. IN ADDITION...OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SW
TX MTNS AND NEAR THE TX BIG BEND.

DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY RICH /PW AROUND 1 INCH/. BUT SFC HEATING
WILL BE STRONG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. THIS
SETUP MAY YIELD A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
SVR PULSE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS UPR DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TX PANHANDLE VORT. SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER DOES
NOT...HOWEVER...APPEAR LIKELY...AND THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET.

...ERN STATES...
BROAD...MOIST LOW-MID LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE E CST THROUGH FRI. CLOUDS AND SCTD CONVECTION/RAIN WILL TEMPER
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES...ONE NOW OVER GA
AND THE OTHER OVER PA...MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN WEAK CINH ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CNTRL-ERN NY/SWRN
NEW ENGLAND...RESPECTIVELY...LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. DEEP SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF LOW LVL
SHEAR WILL EXIST INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT IN WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND.
UNLESS POCKETS OF HEATING EVOLVE TO BOOST BUOYANCY...IT APPEARS THAT
SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE/LOW.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/22/2011

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KTAE [221328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KTAE 221328
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N COTTONWOOD 31.08N 85.30W
09/21/2011 HOUSTON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN JUST NORTH OF COTTONDALE. TWO HOMES
AND ONE BARN DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES.

&&

$$

CAMP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221248
SWODY1
SPC AC 221246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PARADE OF MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ABOUT THE WRN GRTLKS
UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DEEPENING OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TDY. TO THE E...SMALLER
SCALE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE NERN STATES. AT THE SFC...THE CDFNT TIED TO THE PRIMARY
UPR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH NY AND THE CNTRL APLCN
REGION. WRN EXTENT OF SAME FRONT WILL SURGE FASTER INTO THE LWR MS
VLY AND CNTRL/SRN TX THROUGH TONIGHT.

...LWR MS VLY AND CNTRL/SRN TX..
ELEVATED NON-SVR TSTMS...DISPERSED OVER MUCH OF NW TX AND OK AT
DAYBREAK...WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARK REGIONS THIS
MORNING. EFFECTIVE CDFNT...AIDED BY MORNING OUTFLOW...WILL SURGE
INTO SCNTRL/ECNTRL TX AND LA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF SFC-BASED STORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM NWRN LA INTO SCNTRL TX...AND
FARTHER W ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SW TX MTNS AFTER 21Z.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GIVEN HEATING/STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...BUT SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS ANY UPDRAFT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW/FRONT.

...ERN STATES...
BROAD LOW/MID-LVL SWLY FETCH OF GULF/SWRN N ATLC MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CDFNT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN STATES TDY. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL TEMPER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...A
COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN FOCUSING POTENTIAL TSTMS
AMID WEAK CINH. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN APLCNS/CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN WITH ANOTHER AREA ACROSS PA NWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN NY LATER THIS AFTN. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK. UNLESS POCKETS OF HEATING CAN EVOLVE TO BOOST
THERMAL BUOYANCY VALUES...SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE/LOW.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/22/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220701
SWOD48
SPC AC 220700

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
THAT THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL REMAIN A
SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE ON THE UPPER AIR MAPS INTO NEXT WEEK. LATEST
GFS AND YESTERDAY/S 12Z UKMET...AS WELL AS YESTERDAY/S ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL KEEP THE CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY/DAY5.
A STRONG OPEN WAVE FROM THE NERN PAC IS FORECAST TO SPREAD HEIGHT
FALLS INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW AND WRN CANADA BY THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...MODEL SCENARIOS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM ABOUT THAT POINT
FORWARD WITH HOW THE INCOMING PAC SYSTEM EVOLVES AND WHAT INFLUENCE
IT HAS ON DISLODGING THE CUT-OFF LOW.

THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLD CORE LOW AS
SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS ORBIT AROUND THE LARGER CYCLONE. THIS
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS LOCAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BECOME FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED TO SUSTAIN
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. PREDICTING A CORRIDOR OR
TWO OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL AT THIS FORECAST RANGE DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO SUCCEED GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE NATURE OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE SYSTEM AND THE LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF
ANY REGIME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE TSTMS.

..CARBIN.. 09/22/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220603
SWODY3
SPC AC 220602

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF MODEST SSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE GULF
AND SUB-TROPICS NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH EDGES TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

IN ADDITION TO SOME CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS BENEATH/AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN WEAK TROUGHING AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM BECOMING ESSENTIALLY BAROTROPIC...CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LOW.

..CARBIN.. 09/22/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220602
SWODY3
SPC AC 220600

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF MODEST SSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE GULF
AND SUB-TROPICS NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH EDGES TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

IN ADDITION TO SOME CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS BENEATH/AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN WEAK TROUGHING AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM BECOMING ESSENTIALLY BAROTROPIC...CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LOW.

..CARBIN.. 09/22/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220504
SWODY2
SPC AC 220503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ON FRIDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS AND FEATURE A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE ERN FLANK OF THE LARGE
MIDWEST TROUGH WILL LIE IN QUASI-STATIONARY FASHION TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN CREST...FROM WRN PA SWD AND SWWD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PW AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUSTAINED BY WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OFF THE
WARM GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SITUATED AMIDST THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. EPISODIC SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY HEAVY...ARE LIKELY TO PLAGUE AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE
ERN FLANK OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND AID DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD.

...CAROLINAS TO DELMARVA...
IT IS TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE EVEN LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN THE GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT COULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL INFLUENCES THAT ARE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTED IN LATEST
GUIDANCE. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY MOIST BUT
GENERALLY LOW-CAPE AIR MASS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. IF POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-HEATING CAN DEVELOP...LOCALLY
GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED. FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE A
WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS BEING DEPICTED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT WEAK SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...OR PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ANY SUCH
DEVELOPMENT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND...IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION...SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO EVENT. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY SUGGESTS IT WOULD BE
PRUDENT TO REFRAIN FROM OVER FORECASTING THIS LOW-POTENTIAL SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 09/22/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220452
SWODY1
SPC AC 220450

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING AROUND THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW...NOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW SOUTHWARD
MIGRATION OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITHIN BROADER SCALE TROUGHING WHICH WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND A BIT MORE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. MOIST CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE WARM
SECTOR THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS YIELDED LOW
TO NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 09/22/2011

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