SWODY1
SPC AC 221615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2011
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPR GRT LKS TROUGH/LOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP S INTO ERN WI
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED
FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE...WILL SETTLE SE INTO E TX/LA BY 12Z FRI. FARTHER
E...REMNANTS OF EXISTING POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE ERN
STATES...NOW REDUCED TO A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EXTENDING FROM THE
N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO TO NEW ENGLAND...WILL BECOME FURTHER ABSORBED
WITHIN DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE SW FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF GRT LKS TROUGH.
AT THE SFC...CDFNT WITH GRT LKS TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY SE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...AND
SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS NY AND THE CNTRL APLCNS.
...CNTRL/S TX TO LWR MS VLY TODAY...
SCTD...NON-SVR ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP
GENERALLY ESE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS LATER TODAY...TIED TO
WAA/JET ENTRANCE REGION ASCENT WITH TX PANHANDLE IMPULSE. FARTHER
S...SCTD SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS
THE BOUNDARY REACHES S CNTRL/SE TX AND NRN LA. IN ADDITION...OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SW
TX MTNS AND NEAR THE TX BIG BEND.
DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY RICH /PW AROUND 1 INCH/. BUT SFC HEATING
WILL BE STRONG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. THIS
SETUP MAY YIELD A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
SVR PULSE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS UPR DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TX PANHANDLE VORT. SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER DOES
NOT...HOWEVER...APPEAR LIKELY...AND THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET.
...ERN STATES...
BROAD...MOIST LOW-MID LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE E CST THROUGH FRI. CLOUDS AND SCTD CONVECTION/RAIN WILL TEMPER
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES...ONE NOW OVER GA
AND THE OTHER OVER PA...MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN WEAK CINH ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CNTRL-ERN NY/SWRN
NEW ENGLAND...RESPECTIVELY...LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. DEEP SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF LOW LVL
SHEAR WILL EXIST INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT IN WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND.
UNLESS POCKETS OF HEATING EVOLVE TO BOOST BUOYANCY...IT APPEARS THAT
SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE/LOW.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/22/2011
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