KEWX [150240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 150240
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
840 PM CST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM FLOOD 3 E PLEASANTON 28.96N 98.44W
01/14/2010 ATASCOSA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER THE ROAD AT JUNCTION I-37 AND HIGHWAY 281.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000002

$$

MCDONALD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [150238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 150238
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
838 PM CST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM FLOOD 1 S PLEASANTON 28.95N 98.49W
01/14/2010 ATASCOSA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR FLOODING ON AN UNDERPASS NEAR PLEASANTON AT
HIGHWAY 97... WEST OF 1-35.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000001

$$

MCDONALD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KBOI [150117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 150117
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
616 PM MST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM DENSE FOG 8 WNW MELBA 43.40N 116.69W
01/14/2010 OWYHEE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY 200 FEET AT GIVENS HOT SPRINGS.

&&

$$

BW

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150100
SWODY1
SPC AC 150059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS CONUS...RELATED
LARGELY TO WELL-DEFINED LOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS ERN SONORA/WRN
CHIHUAHUA REGION. BY END OF PERIOD...BROAD CYCLONE SHOULD COVER
MOST OF NRN/CENTRAL MEX...ITS NRN FRINGES COVERING RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REGION OF TX.

AT SFC...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED AT 00Z OVER
CENTRAL-NERN MEX. CONTINUING LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED
WITH APCH OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE
WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW OVER OR JUST S OF LOWER VALLEY REGION BY
12Z...WITH WARM FRONT ENEWD/NEWD ACROSS LOWER TX COAST THEN EWD OVER
NWRN GULF.

...S TX...
SOME TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SVR THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO
MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AMIDST SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCEL...FOR SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F. COMBINATION OF
MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER FLOW...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
PROXIMITY TO MOST-MODIFIED AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND FARTHER
S ACROSS MEX COASTAL PLAIN. ACCORDINGLY...SUPERCELL HAS BEEN
EVIDENT WELL OFFSHORE BRO DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH MORE
LINEAR/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES OVER COAST AND INLAND. PRIND
KINEMATIC PROFILES ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME...AND RELATED
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH -- WILL YIELD 0-1 KM SRH 150-250
J/KG. EXPECT ONGOING 30 KT LLJ OVER BRO TO CURVE CYCLONICALLY
INLAND AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN BRO/CRP...ATOP MORE ELY SFC
FLOW. HOWEVER...LACK OF MORE ROBUST MIDLEVEL WINDS ATOP LLJ WILL
RESULT IN WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR -- I.E. LESS THAN 30 KT IN MOST
RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NEGATIVE SHEAR
VALUES FROM LLJ THROUGH MIDLEVELS.

..EDWARDS.. 01/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KBOI [142256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 142256
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
356 PM MST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0158 AM DENSE FOG FRUITLAND 44.02N 116.92W
01/14/2010 PAYETTE ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DENSE FOG ON WEBCAM I-84/US-95 INTERCHANGE...VSBY
ESTIMATED 1/4 MILE OR LESS 158 AM THROUGH 242 PM.

0345 AM DENSE FOG MIDVALE 44.47N 116.73W
01/14/2010 WASHINGTON ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MIDVALE HILL WEB CAM SHOWED DENSE FOG 345 AM THROUGH 745
AM...VSBY ESTIMATED 3 MILES AROUND 9 AM.

0410 AM DENSE FOG 10 NW ONTARIO 44.13N 117.12W
01/14/2010 MALHEUR OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

I-84 MP 352-367...GROUND FOG AND SPOTS OF ICE.

0650 AM DENSE FOG 5 W MIDDLETON 43.71N 116.72W
01/14/2010 CANYON ID NWS EMPLOYEE

DENSE FOG WITH SOME LIGHT FROST ON LIGHTLY TRAVELED RURAL
ROADS NEAR HIGHWAY 44 EXTENTION.

0827 AM DENSE FOG 10 ESE ONTARIO 43.97N 116.79W
01/14/2010 PAYETTE ID NWS EMPLOYEE

VISIBILITY 1/8SM IN DENSE FOG ON THE INTERSTATE.

0836 AM DENSE FOG NE ONTARIO 44.02N 116.97W
01/14/2010 MALHEUR OR TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

0913 AM DENSE FOG BAKER 44.77N 117.83W
01/14/2010 BAKER OR ASOS

BAKER CITY ASOS DENSE FOG 6-17Z.

0915 AM DENSE FOG HORSESHOE BEND 43.91N 116.19W
01/14/2010 BOISE ID UNKNOWN

HORSESHOE BEND ELEMENTARY WEB CAM SHOWED DENSE FOG AT
SUNRISE. VSBY ESTIMATED. HORSESHOE BEN HILL AND RIDGE WEB
CAMS WERE ABOVE THE TOP OF THE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING.

0932 AM DENSE FOG HALFWAY 44.88N 117.11W
01/14/2010 BAKER OR UNKNOWN

HALFWAY WEB CAM DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. 1517Z 1/2
MILE...1617Z 1/8 MILE. VSBY IMPROVED ABOVE 1 MILE AROUND
1632Z.

1015 AM DENSE FOG CALDWELL 43.66N 116.68W
01/14/2010 CANYON ID ASOS

1/4 SM VISIBILITY 855 PM...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES 335-855 AM.
VSBY IMPROVED ABOVE 1/2 MILE 1015 AM.

1059 AM DENSE FOG ONTARIO 44.02N 116.97W
01/14/2010 MALHEUR OR COUNTY OFFICIAL

AROUND 10 SLIDE OFFS REPORTED DUE TO SLICK ROADS/ICE FOG
IN MALHEUR COUNTY BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM MDT.

1241 PM DENSE FOG ONTARIO 44.02N 116.97W
01/14/2010 MALHEUR OR ASOS

VSBY 1/4 MILE AS OF 853 PM...ZERO AT TIMES 353-853
AM...IMPROVED ABOVE 1/4 MILE 1241 PM.

&&

$$

VMILLS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 142000
SWODY1
SPC AC 141959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

.CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST...

EXPANDED GEN TSTM PROBABILITIES NW TO COVER FAR W TX AND INTO SRN NM
AND EXTREME SERN AZ.

STEEP LAPSE RATES /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20 DEG C/ ALONG
NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER COMBINED
WITH MOISTENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO PRODUCE ISOLD TSTMS. CONVECTION WAS
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S
TX WITH TSTM PROBABILITIES INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF
FCST IS UNCHANGED.

..RACY.. 01/14/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010/

...S TX...
GIVEN THE 160KT NWLY JET MAX NOW LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THE UPPER LOW
SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD WELL INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY 12Z
FRI. THE RETURN OF A GREATLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS FROM WRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO TX IS WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

WHILE POTENTIAL WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED
DUE TO ORIGIN OF AIR MASS...THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...S TX...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z.

WITH THE AID OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE VERY STRONG UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING MEXICO
TROUGH...THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS EXTREME S TX
WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST BY TONIGHT.
WITH AN 850MB JET OF 30-35KT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
OFFSHORE S TX AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOS/FUNNELS INLAND.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPIH [141804]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 141804
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1104 AM MST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 AM SNOW 4 SSE RIGBY 43.62N 111.89W
01/14/2010 M2.0 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOWFALL OVER PAST 10 HOURS. SNOW COVERED ROADS.

&&

$$

CHATTINGS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141644
SWODY2
SPC AC 141643

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/S TX...
UPR LOW DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL TURN E AND TRANSLATE ACROSS S
TX FRIDAY. A LEE CYCLONE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OVER THE CNTRL
GLFMEX BASIN BY FRIDAY AFTN. TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TO ABOVE AN INCH IN DEEP S TX AND THE LWR/MIDDLE TX CST.

MODEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PROFILES WILL DRIVE A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/S TX TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN. OVERALL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MITIGATED BY CLOUDS
AND MODEST QUALITY OF THE GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER TSTM OR TWO
ACROSS FAR S TX AND THE SCNTRL TX GULF CST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE
WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT AND/OR HAIL.
WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER STORMS
FAVORING MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY WELL OFFSHORE.

AS THE CNTRL GLFMEX SFC LOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AFTN...THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS S TX WILL ACHIEVE AN INCREASING OFFSHORE COMPONENT. AT
THAT TIME...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRYING WILL
COMMENCE WITH A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN TSTM RISKS.

..RACY.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KOTX [141628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 141628
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
828 AM PST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLOOD 7 NNE SANDPOINT 48.37N 116.50W
01/14/2010 BONNER ID MESONET

COCORAHS ID-BR-13 0.45 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS. SOME
BASEMENT FLOODING.

&&

$$

JCOTE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLOX [141624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 141624
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
824 AM PST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SW CASTAIC LAKE 34.59N 118.77W
01/14/2010 M83 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS 44 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 83 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT WHITAKER PEAK RAWS...ELEVATION 4100 FEET.

&&

$$

MEIER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141555
SWODY1
SPC AC 141553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S TX...
GIVEN THE 160KT NWLY JET MAX NOW LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THE UPPER LOW
SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD WELL INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY 12Z
FRI. THE RETURN OF A GREATLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS FROM WRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO TX IS WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

WHILE POTENTIAL WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED
DUE TO ORIGIN OF AIR MASS...THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...S TX...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z.

WITH THE AID OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE VERY STRONG UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING MEXICO
TROUGH...THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS EXTREME S TX
WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST BY TONIGHT.
WITH AN 850MB JET OF 30-35KT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
OFFSHORE S TX AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOS/FUNNELS INLAND.

..HALES.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KPSR [141550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 141550
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1002 PM HAIL 1 NE APACHE JUNCTION 33.42N 111.53W
01/13/2010 E0.50 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESPOTTER REPORT NEAR SUPERSTITION BLVD AND TOMAHAWK RD

&&

$$

WATERS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KHNX [141343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 141343
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
543 AM PST THU JAN 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
01/13/2010 M56 MPH KERN CA MESONET

PEAK WIND. NUMEROUS GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH BETWEEN
230PM-1000PM PST.

&&

$$

MBIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141241
SWODY1
SPC AC 141239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND WILL
TRACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN 80-100 KNOT MID
LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN
AFFECTING PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX BY 15/00Z. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR NOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TX. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL EXPAND AREA OF 50S
DEWPOINTS...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINT VALUES DUE TO COOL/STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH
1000 J/KG OFFSHORE WITH LOWER VALUES INLAND.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OFF THE LOWER TX
GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..HART.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140952
SWOD48
SPC AC 140951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

A VERY STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC APPEARS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
STATES...PERHAPS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDOUBTEDLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ONE OR
TWO MINOR SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE EVOLVING PATTERN...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION...WHICH COULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AT
THE PRESENT TIME...THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140805
SWODY3
SPC AC 140804

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S...THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A VERY STRONG
ZONAL JET OVER THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO NOSE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW/VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF REGION. JUST HOW THIS LEAD FEATURE INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE /NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WITHIN A SEPARATE STREAM NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER/...IF
AT ALL...AND ITS IMPACT ON POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST...REMAIN POINTS OF CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY AMONG THE GUIDANCE. AND THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

...SOUTHEAST...
A GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER STILL RECOVERING FROM RECENT
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSIONS WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL...BUT MODELS DO
APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER INLAND AREAS...SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN GULF COAST INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT IT WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS AND
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE SIZABLE MODEL SPREAD
CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION/TRACK... COUPLED WITH THE
UNCERTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. BUT...THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK
MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

..KERR.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KLOX [140548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 140548
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
948 PM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ESE CASTAIC LAKE 34.60N 118.58W
01/13/2010 M66.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA OTHER FEDERAL

NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 29 MPH AT WARM SPRING
RAWS...ELEVATION 4930 FEET.

0857 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW CASTAIC LAKE 34.57N 118.74W
01/13/2010 M67.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA OTHER FEDERAL

NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 29 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK
RAWS...ELEVATION 4120 FEET.

&&

$$

HALL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140542
SWODY2
SPC AC 140541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY...WITH A VERY STRONG WESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL JET NOSING AROUND A FLATTENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. REMNANTS OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED
REGIME CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A
PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. ONE WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO APPROACH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PRIMARY IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION...IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
MEXICAN COASTAL AREAS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE...THOUGH GENERALLY WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TEXAS COAST. SUBSTANTIAL VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY...WITHIN THE SLOWLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

...WESTERN GULF COAST...
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK
TO MODEST NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
JUST BEGINS TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS.
HOWEVER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL COOLING...AND PERHAPS STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...COULD ENHANCE STORMS SOMEWHAT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...MAINLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND IN COASTAL WATERS...BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON AN INCREASING OFFSHORE COMPONENT...AND
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION BY MID DAY.

..KERR.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140535
SWODY1
SPC AC 140533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
14/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS FEATURED EXTENSIVE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER
CENTRAL CONUS ASSOCIATED NOT JUST WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES OVER
NRN PLAINS...TX AND AZ...BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT LED BY AZ
PERTURBATION. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO DIG SEWD FROM AZ ACROSS NWRN
MEX...LEADING TO BROAD MID-UPPER CYCLONE COVERING MOST OF NRN MEX
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OF TX DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.
AT SFC...PERSISTENT LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FCST OVER NERN
MEX...ALONG ERN RIM OF SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND RELATED RANGES SW
OF DRT-MFE CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SFC LOW NEAR LRD BY
15/12Z...WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER TX COAST.

...S TX...
MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OFFSHORE AND OVER ERN MEX RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS INVOF PADRE ISLAND...LOWEST RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
LAGUNA MADRE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING GUST OR TORNADO EXISTS
OVER THESE AREAS...PRIMARILY AFTER ABOUT 15/06Z...HOWEVER ORGANIZED
SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
ATTM.

PORTIONS DEEP S TX MAY EXPERIENCE JUXTAPOSITION OF ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL BE MORE COMMON OFFSHORE WITH AT LEAST MRGL LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY INLAND. MODIFIED WRF AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH SFC TEMPS AOA
MID-60S F AND DEW POINTS LOW 60S...WHICH WILL BE ON UPPER END OF
LIKELY RANGE FOR MARINE MODIFICATION OF NARROW CORRIDOR OF NEAR-SFC
TRAJECTORIES FROM WRN OPEN GULF. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE
500-1000 J/KG ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST S OF CRP...AND AROUND 500 J/KG
INLAND. GEOMETRY OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP MIDLEVEL WINDS FROM
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...LIMITING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO
BELOW 30 KT IN MOST FCST SOUNDINGS AND THEREFORE CASTING
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT.
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
MAINLY OFFSHORE...BUT WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INLAND LATE IN
PERIOD.

..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.