SWODY1
SPC AC 141239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND WILL
TRACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN 80-100 KNOT MID
LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN
AFFECTING PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX BY 15/00Z. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR NOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TX. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL EXPAND AREA OF 50S
DEWPOINTS...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINT VALUES DUE TO COOL/STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH
1000 J/KG OFFSHORE WITH LOWER VALUES INLAND.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OFF THE LOWER TX
GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..HART.. 01/14/2010
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